Just 13 days into 2021, the country’s political climate remains turbulent with removal and growing calls for a snap poll from Umno despite the raging Covid-19 pandemic. 

To make things even more interesting, a state of Emergency on 12 January to combat the pandemic. This has resulted in the suspension of Parliament and state assemblies. It will keep things on simmer for now and put an end to any talks of an immediate general election.

Umno delivered a surprise on 5 January when Federal Territories Minister Tan Sri Annuar Musa was removed as secretary-general for Barisan Nasional (BN). Annuar’s ‘crime’ was alleged to be the voice of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) in BN.

Days after the removal, Annuar had slammed those in his party for calling for a snap election amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Urging for elections when the people and the country are struggling with Covid-19, floods, the economy, clearly reflects not only the irresponsibility, but also the hunger for power and the lack of sensitivity to the people’s suffering. That is not the will of the grassroots,” said the Ketereh MP in his Twitter account.

His comment echoed Umno minister and Rembau MP Khairy Jamaluddin who said any section of Malaysia seeking a general election alongside the Covid-19 pandemic was “selfish” and “irresponsible”, and acknowledged that the group included those from his party.

Umno has been pushing for snap poll for the past few months in both subtle and not so subtle manner. In October last year, it had threatened to pull out of the PN coalition and more recently Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had said elections could be held with Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) in place.

"Why are we afraid of holding a general election during the pandemic? More than 30 countries have already done so… Why is Malaysia is so afraid? I think that we're not really scared of Covid-19 but of other things," he said in his opening speech at the Bagan Datuk Umno division meeting on 3 January.

While Annuar has remained supportive of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government, his fellow MPs Datuk Seri Mohamed Nazri Abdul Aziz of Padang Rengas and Machang MP Datuk Ahmad Jazlan Yaakob have withdrawn their support. 

Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin's government is now left with 109 MPs on its bloc out the current 220 MPs. The Dewan Rakyat is comprised of 222 seats but is currently down to 220 following the deaths of Batu Sapi MP Datuk Liew Vui Keong and Gerik MP Datuk Hasbullah Osman last year.

At 109, the PN government does not have the simple majority support of the Dewan Rakyat.

Umno was scheduled to discuss its ties with Bersatu at its General Assembly at the end of this month but that will put on hold as Kuala Lumpur has been put on MCO until 26 January with probable extension due to the rising number of positive Covid-19 cases.

It is obvious that UMNO is the key component to keeping Muhyiddin’s coalition alive. PN’s government’s legitimacy has been questioned since the Sheraton move last February. More withdrawal of support from UMNO’s MPs will make the government untenable, Emergency or not.

The only thing that remains in Muhyiddin’s favour is the challenge for the opposing MPs to hammer a coalition to form a government until such time it is safe to go to the polls.

By Sharon TAN, KHOR Yu Leng, and the PolTracker team, 18 Jan 2021

Editor’s note on the data chart:

• Following the Emergency announcement, the government regulatory body, Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), warned netizens to “be polite and courteous” [jaga kesopanan dan kesusilaan: this seems to be taken straight from the Rukun Negara (Malay for the Malaysian declaration of national philosophy), which is generally recited weekly by school students] when expressing opinions online. This carefully worded warning somehow led to Twitter users exposing MCMC past off-colour Tweets, which turned out to be from a previous user from whom they bought their account in an apparent violation of Twitter’s terms and conditions.

• Twitter sentiments on the YDPA appear caught up in problems that users are highlighting for the YDPA’s attention, e.g. complaints about politicians, suggestions to cut their salaries. This means Tweets tagged as a negative sentiment are not actually about the YDPA; it is the issues netizens are urging him to address which are negative. In general, sentiments towards the YDPA are much more favourable compared to sentiments on politicians.