Prepare for Trouble, Make it Double: Anger in Malaysia after Double Standards by Government

In the past two weeks, Malaysians have taken to the social media to vent their frustrations over the handling of the surge of COVID-19.

Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin who had built his legitimacy on his swift tackling of the COVID-19 earlier this year saw his popular streak came to a grinding halt. Public sentiment turned against him in what they perceived as double-standard when his cabinet members were not subjected to quarantine upon returning from campaigning from Sabah. The government had only imposed quarantine for those returning from Sabah on September 27, a day after the state election.

Anger towards Muhyiddin swelled when in his latest address to the nation, he threatened to ‘rotan’ or cane those who has flouted the SOPs. Hashtags such as #muhyiddinout calling for his ouster, #klustermenteri and #doublestandard gained traction on social media as people voiced their anger towards him. Many felt that he should have ‘caned’ his own cabinet members who have not adhered to the SOPs instead of threatening the public. This came after the minister at the prime minister’s department in charge of Religious Affairs was found to have COVID-19. Zulkifli Mohamad Al-Bakri who had campaigned in Sabah which was a red zone, failed to self-quarantine, instead went on to travel to several other states on official visits. As a result of this, several cabinet members including Muhyiddin were subjected to 14 days quarantine as they had been in the same meeting with Zulkifli.

Maaflah jika abah ini mula menggunakan rotan sekarang. [Sorry that this ‘abah’ is using the cane now.]

Muhyiddin and the government were severely criticised when he was found to not have been issued a pink tag for which is the standard issue for those under quarantine. The Health Ministry came out in defence that Muhyiddin was tested frequently and was found to be negative on all occasions. However, that explanation did nothing to turn the tides.

Last week as the infection numbers surged throughout the country, schools have seen a drop in attendance. Several schools in the Klang Valley were also affected where pupils were confirmed to be positive. In the case of SK Bangsar which had two cases, authorities did not shut down the school despite appeals from parents. The parents then took matters to hand when they collectively did not send their children to attend classes the next day resulting in 0% attendance. This forced the Education Ministry to close the school for a week for purposes of cleaning and sanitation which is the standard practice for premises which have confirmed cases. This move by parents is another outraged against the government’s attitude in tackling the health crisis.

At this time of writing, the government has imposed conditional movement control order (CMCO) from October 14 to 27 on Selangor, Federal Territory Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya (Sabah has also been put under CMCO for 14 days beginning Oct 13) as an effort to stem the spread of the virus.

In the midst of this public anger and political instability, MP Syed Saddiq, who has since established his Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda), has launched the PauseMalaysia campaign (#PauseMalaysia), urging all politicians and political parties to stop their alleged tussle for powers and focus on safeguarding Malaysians from the Covid-19 pandemic

Citing Malaysians as being tired of the power play, the campaign called for ceasefire among all political parties arguing that the people are the ones who suffer as a result of the current spate of power grabbing. Pause Malaysia also asked that there should be no general election as long as the COVID-19 virus continues to spread. Its final request was for the government Opposition and Independent politicians to come together, find a way to cooperate and make the people’s welfare their top priority.

This call for political ceasefire is not unique to MUDA. In August, DAP’s MP Anthony Loke asked for a ceasefire which fell to deaf ears. #PauseMalaysia has yet to gain much traction outside the Twitter sphere. A poll ran by BFM, a local radio station, saw 60% of listeners disagreeing with the campaign while Bridget Welsh, honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute said that the campaign was mis-named as reality of COVID-19, patronage and politicking will go on. “Some parties already preparing for elections/by-elections. Muda could be seen ironically campaigning through this initiative. 'Pausing' empowers those in power w/o solutions to problems,” said Welsh.

By KHOR Yu Leng, Sharon TAN, and Khor Reports’ PolTracker, 15 Oct 2020

Sabah on the Eve of State Elections, 25 Sep 2020

Multiple parties and multi-cornered fights set the stage for the fight for Sabah with big personalities aiming to control the state.

A total of 447 candidates are vying for the 73 state assembly seats. Each seat sees a multiple fight with the least being three-corner while the Bengkoka seat in the Kudat parliamentary area has 11 candidates.

Parti Cinta Sabah, headed by Anifah Aman, is the only party to contest  all 73 state seats followed by Shafie Apdal’s Warisan Plus (61) (Warisan 46, Amanah 1, DAP 7 and  PKR 7), United Sabah National Organisation (47), LDP (46), BN (41), PN (29), Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (28), Parti Perpaduan Rakyat Sabah (24), PBS (22) and Upko (12).

Early favourites and incumbent, Warisan-Plus along with Upko are touting a theme of unity with an emphasis on protecting Sabah's interest and defending the rights of the people. Shafie had dissolved the state government to foil an attempt by former chief minister Musa Aman to replace him by engineering a crossover of assemblymen. (Post 2018 General Election, Shafie managed to form the state government when six BN assemblymen crossed over). 

The other favourite is Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) which is a combination of Perikatan Nasional-BN-Parti Bersatu Sabah. Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has been dangling sweet carrots of development provided being voted into power. Early this week, he announced a new economic stimulus package, Kita Prihatin, which includes financial assistance for the middle income group, and the bottom 40 percent wage earners.

This is a battle of warlords where personalities and ethnic groups and family allegiance hold more clout over loyalty to the party. While there is a sense of acceptance and unity among the people, the lines are clear when election rolls around. A candidate could switch parties and still be voted in as shown repeatedly by the likes of Jeffrey Kitingan of STAR.

Issues for Sabah have remained the same, of bread and butter, development, infrastructure and the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63). It is one of the poorest states in the country despite having resources such as oil and gas, and palm oil. According to the department of statistics (DOSM), the absolute poverty rate in Sabah is at 20% in 2019 as compared to 6% for Malaysia on the whole. The T20 in Sabah has a bigger share of the income share at 46.2% as compared to the B40 at 16.3%.

In terms of telecommunications, the state has the lowest broadband penetration in the country at 81% per 100 inhabitants as of 1Q2019. The issue came to the fore when university student Veveonah Mosibin had to get onto a tree to receive a signal for her phone in order to sit for her exam during the lockdown.

Other concerns include Tanjung Aru Eco Development, Papar Dam project, Kalabakan deforestation and Balambangan silica mining. 

Illegal or undocumented immigrants remained another issue for the state but has not been hotly debated. It bears no benefits for either side to stir up the issue as the support from the Kadazandusun community is crucial. Back in 2019, the then PH government, which Warisan was part of, embarked on a plan to register undocumented migrants which received a lot of opposition from the Kadazandusun community. The BN government in the 1990s were accused of Project IC with an influx of illegal immigrants which displaced the Christian Kadazandusun from power. 

An estimated 250,000 Sabahan reside and work in Peninsular Malaysia. State or by-election generally does not see many making the trip home to cast their votes unlike in a General Election. This time around, the sentiment is that those elected in are expected to switch sides post-election hence there is little motivation to head home to cast their votes. There is also a reluctance to travel to Sabah which is a hotspot of Covid-19 presently with eight clusters.

The race remains tight on the eve of the election but none of the parties helmed by big names could claim advantage over the other. More horse trading is to be expected post-election where new alignments would form a coalition to rule the state.

Credit: Khor Reports PolTRACK team

(c) Khor Reports - Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. 2020. All rights reserved.

Much Ado about Something: The India-Malaysia Palm Kerfuffle

There has been significant noise between India and Malaysia about palm oil. This was apparently triggered by comments about Kashmir’s status at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2019 by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad (selected as the key teaspoon-a-day Malaysia palm oil advocate).

In the era of trade wars, specialists point to the ‘weaponisation’ of several commodity trades as a result of geopolitical issues emanating from the US-China trade war. In this case, sensitivities in India grew and reached a level that the Solvent Extractor’s Association, the key vegetable oil refiners association, issued a statement on 21 October 2019, urging its members to avoid Malaysia palm oil in solidarity with national issues.

New Delhi officials have denied any negative trade policy. Observers tell of Malaysia officialdom being more concerned about the trade balance and the fact that Malaysia is exploring buying more India buffalo meat and sugar to improve the negative trade balance with India.

But words keep flying. Bilateral issues include the extradition of wanted preacher Zakir Naik, a cause célèbre resident in Malaysia, as well as criticism of India’s new nationality rules.

To be sure, India needs palm oil, or other imported vegetable oils but none is so well priced, on average. So it may all seem a storm in a teacup while palm prices ramp up. Reuters reported an ongoing trade but at a discount to Indonesia palm oil prices. Usually, Malaysia palm oil trades at USD 15-20/tonne premium to Indonesia (largely on logistics), but a USD 5/tonne discount helped things along. This indicates a negative (relative) swing of USD 20/tonne or more at one point.

Malaysia palm producers could take this in their stride. They must be pleased that, despite such talk from its biggest buyer—on top of negative headlines about the palm trade outlook with the EU—the price of crude palm oil has been on a tear, rising from a low of about USD 450 (at mid-2019) to USD 750/tonne, a three year high. But watch out for how long its competitive position against other oils and its use in biodiesel are eroded.

Khor Reports stands by for this (already, India is cutting import taxes) and for possibly more geopolitical word parrying. In the meantime, we highlight eight major points and issues about the palm oil trade, the trade context, and our online-social media reading of the Malaysia palm oil flap in India!

Quick facts about palm oil exports to India

(Note: Trade figures rely on an export-basis reporting unless stated otherwise.)

#1 Indonesia dominates as India’s largest source of palm oils.

It supplies 60% of India’s total palm oil (crude and refined) needs in the last five years; Malaysia has a 38% market share. In 2018 alone, India imported 6.0 million tonnes of palm oil worth USD 5.5 billion, with Indonesia selling USD 3.8 billion and Malaysia selling USD 1.3 billion worth. For palm kernel oil (crude and refined), Indonesia is (again!) the majority supplier to India. With a 66% share in 2018, Indonesia sold USD 487 million worth, while Malaysia sold USD 243 million.

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#2 India is (by far) Malaysia’s largest buyer of palm oil.

In the last five years, just over 20% of Malaysian palm oil went to India (tan-coloured wedge, below). The next biggest importers of Malaysian palm oil were China, Netherlands, Pakistan, Vietnam, USA, Japan, and the Philippines.

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#3 Recent monthly data shows a boom in Malaysia refined palm exports to India.

Looking at monthly data for the Malaysia-India palm trade from June 2018 to June 2019, the value of the trade in crude palm oil (blue line, below) was relatively stable, with slight dips in February 2019 and June 2019.

The value of refined palm oil imports (red line) was about USD 25 million or much lower each month, and started to spike up after January 2019, reaching USD 200 million in February and May 2019. Palm kernel oil product imports (yellow and green lines) were relatively small throughout. 

#4 But Malaysia has lost a million tonnes of volume in India, 2014 to 2018.

However, the more recent rise of Malaysia exports is in the context of declining volume to India. Malaysia palm oil exports have fallen from over 3 million tonnes in 2014 and even higher in 2015 to around 2 million tonnes in 2017 and 2018. This is a major drop of 1 million tonnes by 2018. But look at the pick up in 2019 that so worried India refiners (look out for our future articles or ask us about this!).

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It appears Malaysia was trying to claw back market tonnage with the Malaysia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperative Agreement (CECA; reduced import duties on Malaysian palm products came into effect in January 2019), but it was flummoxed by the 5% safeguard duty (imposed in September 2019); the more recent trader tensions raise many further questions.  

Overall INdia-Malaysia Trade relationship

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#5 India has a large (but narrowing) trade deficit with Malaysia.

Looking at overall trade relations, India has a trade deficit with Malaysia. This deficit was USD 6.3 billion in 2014, and it has been slowly declining (improving), with a deficit of USD 3.9 billion in 2018.

#6 India’s top trade items include fuel and palm oils, buffalo meat and more.

In 2018, India’s top imports from Malaysia included mineral fuels and oils (USD 2.8 billion), animal and vegetable oils (USD 1.4 billion), electrical machinery (USD 1.1 billion), machinery (USD 753 million), copper products (USD 599 million).

Meanwhile, India’s top exports to Malaysia in the same year are mineral fuels and oils (USD 2.4 billion), aluminium (USD 836 million), organic chemicals (USD 561 million), meat (USD 395 million) and machinery (USD 276 million).

India Public interest & SOCIAL MEDIA

#7 Late Sep and Oct 2019, India social media was a flutter.

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#BoycottMalaysia garnered about 20,000 mentions in a month and palm oil—usually such a staid topic limited to the professional sphere—boomed with about 25,000 mentions; since the Kashmir controversy, it has attracted 80% higher interest in India social media than before in 2019 (note that these statistics are for a key segment in social media, but is not a full count, so there is likely even more mentions elsewhere). Top topics linked to palm oil include boycott, Kashmir and Mahathir.

For some reason, #BoycottMalaysia and ‘palm oil health’ (brown and pink lines) peaked at the end for September 2019 before another (slightly bigger) peak of social media mentions of palm oil and Kashmir and Mahathir (orange and purple lines) in mid-late October 2019. Social media indicators precede an awakening of public interest online (see #8). Fortunately, while there are India media articles that use negative words - like ‘disgusting’ and ‘toxic’ - they do not turn up in social listening indicators.

#8 Palm oil has broken out of a 2015-2018 lull in India online interest.

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While Indonesia palm oil dominates the trade, it has done so pretty quietly (light green line). Malaysia palm oil (mid green line) attracts much more India public interest, while its volume has been struggling there. However, the highest is ‘palm oil India’ (dark green line), a topic we intend to explore later (note: there are incentives to plant oil palm in India). A low simmering topic is palm oil and health (pink line). The boycott topic (lighter orange line) is less prominent (in non-social media) online and should definitely be tracked via social media listening (see #7).

KHOR Yu Leng, 2 Jan 2020

Out of Sight, Out of Mind: Waste Plastic Imports to Malaysia

In early 2018, China stopped accepting plastic waste from the world. This caused increased imports to developing countries, that did not have the capabilities to manage the voluminous waste. Most of the plastic waste were redirected to Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. 

We take a deep dive into the Malaysian situation. There was an influx of waste plastics imports in 2018 and a subsequent decrease in late 2018, as it banned contaminated plastic waste in October 2018, in an effort to restrict the overflowing supply of waste plastics. More recently, monthly plastic waste imports began to increase. The Pakatan Harapan administration has also highlighted plans to build at least one incinerator in each state (it has thirteen), and there is concern this may again open the flood gate for imports.

Not surprisingly, the surging waste plastics business has triggered other issues. These include illegal recycling factories, waste dumping sites, and open burning. Khor Reports has consolidated data on waste plastics issues in a dashboard, with information compiled from media reports. This provides an overall view of plastic waste imports and the concerns it has raised for the Malaysian people. The data is as at 27 September 2019, collected by a group of volunteers over a period of about two weeks.

As China eschews the trade in plastic waste, Malaysia and its Southeast Asian counterparts have reported that they are overwhelmed by this material. Waste plastics often have three fates: recycling, incineration, or disposal in a landfill. The surge of imports and the lack of capability and capacity in these segments led to unscrupulous practices widely reported in the media. 

Illegal recycling factories are operating in the dark. There are multiple news reports of public upset over eye, throat, and breathing discomfort from toxic fumes produced from the open burning of plastics (often at night). A recent news report for Sungai Petani (in the northern state of Kedah) reported an illegal plastic recycling factory ramping up production during the southern ASEAN peat fire driven haze-smog, to try to mask its noxious output. More recently, a team of Canadian journalists went undercover. In the guise of selling waste to illegal recycling factories in Malaysia, they discovered large amounts of plastics dumped in landfills and rivers and that they are also being burned in the open. 

Illegal waste dumping sites can pose a human health risk due to the open burning of plastics. Studies have shown that burning plastics contain chlorine, emit dioxins, and furans. These are highly toxic and persistent environmental pollutants. Media accounts point to an area in the Kuala Muda district (of Kedah) where air pollution levels were “very unhealthy,” blaming roughly 50 illegal recycling factories burning plastic waste in their compounds.

Amidst the growing concerns, some have viewed the ban on plastic waste imports to China as a big business opportunity. A report by Greenpeace Malaysia and Kuala Langat Environmental Protection Association (Selangor) highlighted that Malaysia imported 754,000 tonnes of plastic valued at Ringgit Malaysia 483 million between January and July of 2018. A potential way to combat the issue of plastic waste could be for organisations and individuals to move towards a circular economy and prioritise the reduction of plastic waste. 

More details are available on a customised basis; including additional data fields. Please contact us to find out more.

Maps and datasets were assisted by Nadirah Sharif and Loh Rachel of Khor Reports, and our amazing volunteers: Chaleena Suvanpratum, Clara Oi Ai Leen, H. Cyrene Surupi Perera, Eunice Su Hui Siew, Goh Paul Mae, Ruth Ng Wern Ai, and Vincent Loh Xue Yan.

#PlasticPollution #WastePlastics #PlasticImports #Malaysia

(c) Khor Reports - Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. 2019. All rights reserved.

The Haze: And the Flames Went Higher?

A few weeks ago the infamous haze plaguing Southeast Asia lifted. The question is whether the haze this year was as bad as the big one in 2015.

Intriguingly, while the overall count of fire alerts in 2019 is lower compared to 2015, observers have remarked on the higher intensity in some areas. Fires have also been appearing in different locations this year, surprising many planters. 

Global Forest Watch reported that 43% of fire alerts between June 2019 and late September 2019 for Indonesia were recorded on peatlands.

Looking at the Kalimantan region, the MODIS alerts (high intensity fires relate to high or 95% confidence (red points), are on peatlands (black shaded areas), particularly in the southern areas.

There are large oil palm and mills zones and areas are affected by alerts. So far Indonesia authorities have a fire law enforcement list of 10.000 hectares, Indonesia wide.

Many fire alerts are also happening outside concession areas and on designated protected lands of Kalimantan (green shaded areas), which is also a great cause for concern.

#Haze #Haze2019 #SoutheastAsia #Indonesia #Kalimantan 

(c) Khor Reports - Segi Enam Advisors Pte Ltd. 2019. All rights reserved.