Money, Money, Money: The 2021 Budget

Compiled by PolTracker

Nadirah

Just last week, the Muhyddin administration presented their budget for 2021. Interestingly, Twitterjaya mentions and sentiment appeared less than thrilled, with Tengku Zafrul Aziz, the current Finance Minister, receiving quite a brunt of Malaysian Twitter netizens displeasure.

While criticism of government budgets is a traditional annual event, the air about it feels different for 2020. This year, public disapproval—at least the ones online—seems more visceral than usual, aggravated by the rakyat’s already building frustration due to the coronavirus pandemic as well as the continuous gaffes by the government in response to the recent wave of Covid-19 cases. Public trust in politicians on both divides is tanking, and after the Budget voting fiasco, it’s anyone’s guess how that trust is going to be rebuilt (if it was even there to begin with).

Yu Leng
The Muhyiddin administration is relatively safe until the final budget vote (3rd reading) on 17th December. It won this first hurdle by a walk over! It means that the opposition does not have the strength to topple it. There has been so much chatter in Kuala Lumpur about ruling coalition factions sitting out and even about opposition factions negotiating deals for a unity approach. But the Prime Minister is all powerful in Malaysia’s winner-takes-all political economy.

The “voice vote” and the inexplicable no-vote-silence of major parts of the opposition came as a big surprise yesterday.  Let’s not forget that the underlying mood in Malaysia appears rather negative despite this being seen as a pro-Bumiputera budget. Looking beyond the intellectual chat groups, I was surprised to see how negative is sentiment in Twitter on belanjawan (budget in Malay) and regarding the Minister of Finance. This is another (wider) bubble of opinion but the deteriorating sentiment since the Budget Speech on 6 November is still notable. 

Trumpian politics does point to the big weight of the rural vote while urbanites may be left to whinge on. Those relying on urban votes may feel they sit strong in their niches too. But politicians across the spectrum should not forget there is deep suspicion that double standards (for their benefit) has taken Malaysia from a stellar position in Covid-19-economic mitigation to a plummeting situation; on the back of the free-and-easy approach they all took in the Sabah election in recent months. The obvious Covid-19 SOP exemptions they enjoy are also splashed across social media. The strong wave of Covid-19 cases post-Sabah and the movement restrictions have pulled the rug out from under the rakyat’s feet yet again. Belanjawan/Budget 2021 has to spend wisely to mend all this.

This unprecedentedly awkward budget process will increase distrust in politicians. All politicians will be answering tough questions. The opposition on why so many did not push for a formal count? The PN-BN group about accountability and oversight of Budget spending; to address Malaysia’s chronic untargeted spending problem. The country has been running budget deficits since the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s and even the short-lived Pakatan Harapan administration had a bigger Budget than the Najib administration, and on and on it goes.

Sharon

Instead of allowing people to access their EPF savings, the government should have worked with the banks for an extension of the moratorium for loans. The government as regulators has the ability to make the banks toe the line while the banks are able to withstand the deferred service of loans. Technically, the banks’ are not registering losses but merely deferring profits. A moratorium on the loans would give individuals and businesses a lot of breathing space as they navigate through this difficult climate. As it is many have lost jobs and businesses shuttered, the moratorium would prevent a whole lot of NPLs.

Another case against the EPF withdrawal is RM10,000 would not go very far for most people. Whether it is a one off withdrawal or in 12 instalments, it will not be able to tide much more than three months. What happens after that? As it stands, Malaysians don’t have enough savings in EPF for their retirement. Taking out RM10,000 is a big sum for the lower income earners and would seriously affect their retirement fund.

A Game of Thrones: US Post Elections, 17 Nov 2020

The 2020 US elections are finally over, although the horizon seems to promise yet more drama up until Joe Biden’s inauguration early next year. As the world settles into the results, here are some thoughts from our PolTracker team members.

Sharon

The Democrats received 306 votes in the Electoral College. Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States of America come 20 January 2021. In over a week since Biden exceeded the 270 threshold requirement to win, Donald Trump has yet to formally concede and he has repeatedly claimed victory via tweets. Trump had also launched a series of lawsuits based on allegations of election fraud. Most courts have thrown out these lawsuits due to lack of evidence. In any case, any recounts or legal challenges are not expected to overturn the overall result. Biden has also the lead in the popular vote that has surpassed five million.

The Republican representatives are divided on the results with some encouraging Trump to continue his challenge while some have openly congratulated Biden on his win.

The problem now lies with the transition, which is crucial for the Biden’s incoming administration to get up to speed on the country’s state of affairs. With Trump’s refusal to concede (which is not required by law but a matter of convention), the normal handover process to the new government has been stalled.

The General Services Administration (GSA), the government agency tasked with beginning the process and is headed by a Trump appointee, has yet to recognise Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris as winners. Hence, the Biden team has not been given access to classified security briefings, federal agencies and funding needed for a smooth transition of power. Despite the roadblocks, Biden has appointed his Chief of Staff and has also assembled a COVID-19 task force to tackle the pandemic.

The electors in the Electoral College are scheduled to meet in the respective states to cast ballots on Dec 14. Once the votes are counted, the electors all sign six certificates of the results. Perhaps then, Trump would have no choice but to face the stark reality that he has lost his presidency.

Nadirah

Compiled by PolTracker

Biden claimed victory on 8 November 2020, about four days after the polling day, with Trump still struggling to (formally) concede defeat. Twitter mentions and sentiment (global) leading up to this show Biden overtaking Trump on both fronts, i.e. Biden received a higher number of mentions which recorded more positive sentiment than his Republican counterpart.

Interestingly, while some Trump voters are seen as racist and the misinformed, the large number of Trump voters is turning discussions to what drives so many Trump voters. One article points out that within the context of an unchanging flawed democratic system, a rationale surfaces: a voter attempts to maximise whatever little stake they have in it. In other words, voters cast their ballots for Trump, “fully cognisant of all his flaws, shortcomings and dangers” and in search of tax breaks and more.

In this article, correspondent Nesrine Malik classified seven types of rational Trump voters. Several notable ones include: 1) high earners, i.e. the top 20%, who obtained a 3% gain in income; 2) entrepreneurs, with a survey revealing that 65% of respondents believed that Trump’s tax regime was the “best thing the government did for companies last year”, and; 3) lower end-workers—in some sectors, such as the shale and gas industry, job creation was directly attributed to Trump thanks to his vocal support. 

While many are unwilling to give Trump voters the time of day, being outright hostile might not be the right solution, no matter how cathartic of a solution that may be. As columnist Cathy Young explains, it only “perpetuate[s] the vicious cycle of demonization of which Trump has been both a cause and a symptom”. Trump voters (faith-driven, rational and other), will continue to exist in the Land of the Free—or anywhere else in the world, really—and continuously antagonising them may not be the best plan of action in the long run. 

Cyrene

The U.S Election 2020 saw former Vice President Joe Biden winning the presidency against Donald Trump (306 - 232) , the first President to lose a re-election bid since George H.W. Bush in 1992.   

Which groups favored Joe Biden or Donald Trump, by gender and race? Based on preliminary exit poll data (updated for 11 November 2020), Biden secured more women votes - by an small (improved) margin of two percentage points, ahead of Hilary Clinton (Note: In 2016, she received one of the “lowest shares of female votes of any Democrat”). This seems a lacklustre improvement in light of who he was running against; and given his (minority) female running mate - Kamala Harris.

Source: Wolf, Merrill, and Wolfe (2020)

A look at the background details of for-Biden (Democrat) women voters revealed that support had slipped among women of color (versus the 2016 election). The Biden Agenda for women has focused on inclusion and equality for women, and especially women of color, in issues like healthcare, economy, education, and national security to ensure that they can exercise their civil rights amidst a pandemic. Therefore, it does come as a surprise when Joe Biden underperforms Hilary Clinton with this group.

Source: Wolf, Merrill, and Wolfe (2020)

Donald Trump on the other hand saw an increase in support from white women (plus two percentage points compared to 2016), despite his rhetorical remarks about women. Alas, for The Donald, he lost support among white men (minus eight percentage points). What went wrong?

Yu Leng

Post US election, there was a mighty relief from the internationalised American (and others!) with whom I’m in touch with via social media. One wrote to me about the urban-rural divide: We can have a situation where Biden has now crossed the 5 million vote lead mark and yet folks doubt the result. Clinton had almost 3 million more votes than Trump and yet the electoral college handed it to the loser of the popular vote. Don't like it.

What caught my eye? 

First, yes, city votes matter less. The #LandDoesntVote graphic below, says much about how the electoral system distributes power. It empowers rural votes, much to the frustration of city voters. What’s going on? Have so-called anti-democratic institutions stacked the political systems against urban voters? This is a problem across many other democracies, with the finger often pointed to associations with the first past the post or "winner takes all" British-style electoral system. This delivered a shock of ex-London (well, the London-Oxford-Cambridge triangle) Brexiteers to its own mega city folk on 23 June 2016; and a few months later came Trumps’ 8 November 2016 victory.

via GIPHY

Second, voting outcomes. The tendencies and shifts (I’ve started to look at the Associated Press/AP’s VoteCast survey findings, a 3-6 November NPR summary, and The Financial Times’ findings of 8 November). Interestingly, American voters who care most about economic concerns voted Trump, and those who cared about the virus (with huge acute economic concerns!) voted for Biden. Hmm. 

What will be done about the urban-rural divide and other underlying economic voting cleavages? Economists and policy makers have not cared enough about distributional impacts, and when will they start to? Economic inequality continues to be fertile ground for political meisters. Are both sides bamboozling voters?

Notable: Geographical polarisation & faith voting.

From the PolTracker team, 17 Nov 2020

DATA LINKS

A pro-exurban electoral system

#LandDoesntVote gif from twitter post

What I’m earmarking for reading: 

• Partisan Gerrymandering and the Construction of American Democracy, 2013, Ed. Erik Engstrom, https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1gk086k

• Why Cities Lose: The Deep Roots of the Urban-Rural Political Divide, 2019, Jonathan A. Rodden, https://politicalscience.stanford.edu/publications/why-cities-lose-deep-roots-urban-rural-political-divide

Voting tendencies and trends

Understanding The 2020 Electorate: AP VoteCast Survey, 3 Nov 2020 (and since updated), by NPR

This data comes from AP VoteCast, a survey of the U.S. electorate conducted over several days before Nov. 3, continuing until the polls close. The data includes interviews with more than 110,000 people across the U.S. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 0.4 percentage points for voters. It is an alternative to traditional exit polls.

Note: EXTENSIVE VOTE DETAILS. Source: AP VoteCast, based on interviews with 110,485 likely voters and have been adjusted to reflect preliminary vote totals as of 10 a.m. ET on Nov. 6. The margin of error is 0.4 percentage points.

Also, read our note on faith leaders and the Trump 2020 vote

AP VoteCast is a nationwide survey of more than 133,000 voters and nonvoters conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago. Excerpts from, the article, AP VoteCast: Trump, Biden coalitions show race, class divide, 5 Nov 2020:

• Despite a once-in-a-century pandemic and a weakened economy…. 76% of U.S. voters said they knew all along who they would support (the bulk of supporters for both presidential candidates)... two-thirds of all voters said their decision was about Trump — either for or against.

• Biden amassed a sizable and diverse coalition of young, women, college-educated, urban and Black voters, groups that powered his party’s 2018 midterm victories. Some 38% of his support came from voters of color.

• Trump, meanwhile, marshaled his overwhelmingly white and rural supporters to turn out voters in the places that anchored his victory four years ago. He held on to 62% of white voters without a college degree, despite Biden’s hopes of peeling off large numbers of them. And in some competitive states, like Nevada and Florida, Trump ate away at Biden’s support among Latinos.

• Turnout for both parties appeared to be strong as voters expressed anxiety about the country’s future. Six in 10 voters — including most Biden voters and about a quarter of Trump voters — said the nation was on the wrong track.

• Nearly three-quarters of U.S. voters were white and 55% of them backed Trump. The president secured 81% of white evangelical Christians. About half of men voted for him. Trump won 60% of voters living in small towns and rural areas.

• Nationwide, nearly 57% of college graduates backed Biden. So did 55% of women. And 55% of voters under the age of 45. He won 65% of urban voters and 54% of suburbanites.

By numbers: how the US voted in 2020, 8 Nov 2020, Financial Times

From FT.com about the voter shifts 2016-2020

From FT.com about political polarisation

Malaysia: Mass and KL Elite Mobility

#KhorReports #mobility research. Malaysia mass mobility and Kuala Lumpur (KL) elites mobility combined in one chart. You can see: (i) the panic shopping before the #lockdown: (ii) the crowded recreation parks situation; (iii) the apparently faster reaction of the KL elites pre- and post- lockdowns; and (iv) the re-lockdown (looser mode).

Interesting to see how the indices measure against the first lockdown proper and the business-as-usual phase that was interrupted by the surge of #Covid19 cases emanating from Sabah (its state election was cited as a “how not to” by Bloomberg; but cases were also spreading from Kedah).

Khor Reports mobility and consumer sentiment review

The Final Countdown: The Eve of the 2020 US Elections

One month of Twitter sentiment on the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates (green is most positive, red is most negative)

Compiled by PolTracker

One month Twitter mention for the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates

Yu Leng

From half way across the world, we're looking at the tea leaves of Twitter mentions. What does it portend for Trump-Pence versus Biden-Harris?

We're used to mass voting on polling day (with very few early voters), but in the US, there has been early and postal voting going on for weeks. Checking in with my US data analytics friend, he had this to say: "Biden has a healthy lead but there is a lot of uncertainty due to a huge increase in postal and early voting by Democrats due to Covid-19 and voter suppression by Republicans."

Sharon

Last election, I had friends who walked around shell-shocked as the results poured in. For days after that, many questioned how did the press not picked up on the sentiment of the voters. They felt that the reporting had all pointed a sure win for Hilary Clinton.

This election is setting up to be another close one as the country is more divisive four years on. Will there be a decisive result on election night or will it take days to announce the winner? If there is a recount, how long will it take?

Nadirah

During the 2016 elections, my then-boss made a RM50 bet with his colleague that Trump would win against Clinton. We half-thought he was joking, so nobody in the office took him (and Trump) seriously.

I mean, yeah, Trump later won and the world got a little darker, but we got treated to ice cream from that well-earned (?) RM50 (I think). Good times.

From a personal point of view, social media for this round of elections seems just as frenzied as four years ago—this time, however, it feels tinged with an edge of desperation. Personalities across all fields have been constantly encouraging their followers to vote, from comedians including Stephen Colbert and Sarah Cooper, to YouTube personalities such as the Try Guys, to artists like Nikkolas Smith and Bianca Xunise. With complications thanks to the pandemic and allegations of voter suppression, though, the million-dollar question is: will it work?

From the PolTracker team, 3 Nov 2020

Ps. Editor: WSJ writes, “3 in 10 — The share of voters who cast their ballots on Election Day rather than by voting early or by mail.”

The King and I? The 2020 Bangkok Protests

Thailand may see an end to its political impasse and demonstrations as its monarch signals on compromise.

In a rare interview with the press over the weekend, King Maha Vajiralongkorn said "Thailand is the land of compromise” when asked if there is a possibility of a compromise.

The pro-democracy demonstrations, led by student activists, which started in July, has its roots in the dissolution of the Future Forward Party; which did well in last year’s elections. Considered a new political force, the young urban elite flocked to it and so did their older counterparts. When it was ordered to dissolve over a financial issue (of a loan) and its executives were banned from politics for 10 years, the people took to the streets but the protest paused as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

More recently, the protesters have called for a new constitution, the dissolution of parliament and resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the former army general who seized power in a 2014 coup.

What had made their demands notable is that they have tackled the issue of the monarchy. In an unprecedented move, the demonstrations call for its reform and that the King is answerable to the constitution.

“This is the first time the protests have explicitly called for reform to the monarchy. Partly it is because the current king is so different from his father. He reigns from Germany….  Young people are sick of arcane institutions and rules. It is not just politics but school rules such as having to prostrate yourself and they are thinking why they have to do all these when young people in other countries don’t,” said a political observer in Bangkok. He pointed out that the protestors are embarrassed by how far Thailand had backslided in terms of international perception.

Thailand has one of the world’s strictest lese majeste laws where criticizing the King, Queen, or heir apparent can lead to a maximum 15-year prison sentence.

The protesters have been publicly breaking this taboo of speaking out. They have also taken their protest to social media where they have clocked up millions of tweets; and our Bangkok observers also pointed out a surprisingly audacious hashtag that surged to two million mentions.

(Editor: This is in marked contrast to Malaysia which has half of Thailand’s population. Its tuned-off people could barely muster up 10 to 30 thousand twitter mentions amidst its own political turmoil. See our data analysis on the Malaysia political emergency here).

One month Twitter mentions for selected hashtags relating to the Bangkok protests

In the spotlight are also the king’s immense wealth and power. Since his ascent to the throne, the king has appointed his own military unit and vastly increased his personal wealth by transferring billions of dollars' worth of royal assets held by the Thai Crown directly into his control.

Students are of the view that for Thailand to achieve true democracy, reforms are needed to the the top-down ruling establishment - the monarchy, military and wealthy political elites.

While dozens of protestors have been arrested under the emergency decree in October, the Thai government has been fairly restrained. None of the student leaders have been arrested to date. The emergency measures were subsequently reversed in less than two weeks after even more daily protest in Bangkok and other cities.

Whether there will be a compromise as the king had signaled, remains to be seen and the protests will continue for now.

By KHOR Yu Leng, Sharon TAN, and the PolTracker team, 1 Nov 2020