#DaruratBanjir: Our Expectations for You were Low but Holy...

The end of 2021 was marked by disaster for too many in Southeast Asia. Weather conditions were notably severe in parts of the region, especially for the Philippines due to Typhoon Odette, violently disrupting the lives of more than four million people.

While weather-related destruction was not as severe as in the Philippines, the December 2021 floods in Malaysia displaced tens of thousands. Despite it being one of the worst floods the country has seen, the official response was widely seen as being astoundingly slow, and it was followed by finger-pointing and defensive statements by government agencies.

For the second time in a year, frustrated citizens and migrants took it upon themselves to help one another.

On Twitter, #DaruratBanjir (Flood Emergency) took off, with the hashtag used to highlight SOS alerts, coordinate rescue efforts, and amplify donation drives. A peak of 800,000 hashtag uses is an extremely large figure for Malaysia social media, and should be a wake up call for the government (at federal and state level) and politicians.

Old hashtags such as #KitaJagaKita (we take care of each other) and #RakyatJagaRakyat (the People take care of the People) resurfaced as well, though not to the extent of a boom of #DaruratBanjir messages. Similarly, #KerajaanGagal (failed government) and #KerajaanBangsat made a comeback, with #KerajaanPembunuh (Murderous Government) spiking around the time the first reported death due to the floods was made.

The phrases "DO NOT DONATE TO GOVERNMENT” and “DO NOT DONATE HERE” (typically typed in all caps) have gained significant traction as well. These campaigns were netizens’ response to the Keluarga Malaysia Flood Relief Flood launched on 21 December 2021—many disagreed with the government’s decision to raise funds for flood victims by collecting donations from the public and urged others to donate to reputable NGOs instead. Exasperated Malaysians would later tweet the same advice to Apple CEO Tim Cook when he announced that the tech giant will be contributing to relief efforts to Malaysia and Philippines.

Note: The charts above depict the number of mentions of popular hashtags and phrases used in relation to the December 2021 floods; the bottom chart is the same as the one above, but without #DaruratBanjir (which was used extensively to pinpoint SOS alerts, donation drives, and emergency appeals) for easier analysis. #KitaJagaKita, #RakyatJagaRakyat, and the #KerajaanGagal/Bangsat/Pembunuh hashtags were already used earlier in the year, particularly during the #BenderaHitam (black flag), #BenderaPutih (white flag), and #Lawan (fight) movements, which were triggered after a year of questionable pandemic management by officials.

All in all, public reaction paints a clear indication of a trust deficit in the government. With the disastrous way officials responded during and after the floods, including recent attempts to censor/censure tweets critical of the government, people are wondering how Putrajaya will regain the rakyat’s trust .

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In other related observations, the World Bank has not had time to measure the impact from the floods in the country. It has urged Malaysia to continue with its existing income reliefs for another six months, especially for its poor and most vulnerable communities, following the the launch of its Malaysia Economic Monitor December 2021 Edition Report on 21 Dec 2021.

On the issue of problematic policy, politics and the floods: it is unfortunately nothing new. Khor Reports has written about it in The Political-Economy of Land Development (or the Politics of Floods) back in 2018. Climatic changes from a regular to wetter-than-usual weather (La Nina phenomenon, was well known months ago) increases flood risks, and combined with major land development-clearance activities, and dysfunctional federal-state planning (with invariably go-getting state land development projects), flood crises will surely become politicised, especially of this scale and tragedy.

On PalmTrack, we also have a post on the impact of the floods on palm oil supply for both Indonesia and Malaysia. Subscribe to read the full post.

The People Ain't Happy: The #Lawan Protests

Public sentiment on Twitterjaya has not improved since our last post—developments on the political front, while interspersed with heart-warming achievements by all our athletes throughout the ongoing Tokyo Olympics, continue to chip away at the Rakyat’s patience.

Most recently, the drama is centred around special Parliamentary sitting, which culminated in the King reprimanding de facto law minister Takiyuddin Hassan for misleading Parliament after the latter made a startling claim that royal assent has been given to revoke the Emergency Ordinances introduced during Malaysia’s state of emergency. Interestingly, proceedings were then postponed indefinitely after Covid-19 cases were reportedly detected in the Parliament buildings.

After more than a year of questionable pandemic management by officials, public frustration has finally spilled on to the streets. 31 Jul saw #Lawan (fight) protestors gathering in Kuala Lumpur to voice their dissatisfaction against the Mahiaddin government. The use of #Lawan hashtag recorded an impressive total of more than 210,000 mentions on Twitter on the day of the protest alone. Other notable hashtags including #KeluardanLawan (get out and fight) and #LawanIntimidasi (fighting intimidation) also received significant attention, receiving about 19,000 and 11,000 mentions respectively. #Lawan received another spike when Opposition MPs staged a protest on 2 Aug in response to the postponement of parliament proceedings, recording about 41,000 mentions that day.

In contrast, the long popular #KerajaanGagal (failed government) similarly showed an uptick in mentions, albeit less dramatic compared to the aforementioned, more event-specific hashtags.

Note: #Lawan again recording a staggering number of mentions, further solidifying our opinion of the campaign potentially being one of Malaysia’s most successful online campaigns thus far.

#BukaDataran (Open up the Dataran) was used during the #Lawan protest when demonstrators were barred by police from entering the Dataran Merdeka. #HartalDoktorKontrak (contract doctors’ strike) refers to the nationwide strike on 26 Jul by contract doctors over unfair employment conditions; the hashtag recorded up to 146,000 mentions on Twitter on the day of the strike.

The pandemic has clearly made online campaigns increasingly popular as an outlet for public disapproval. Unfortunately, official response against these campaigns seem to generally consist of either threatening compounds against protestors, calling up individuals for police questioning, or arresting activists involved in these protests. Whatever it is the government is intending, these actions are unlikely to gain much candy points from the already irate public.

Power to the People: The 2021 Myanmar Coup D'état

Note: Chart indicates hashtags in the English language among Myamnar netizens. The coup was on 1 Feb 2021. Facebook was the more popular social media platform in Myanmar before it was blocked, 3 Feb 2021. There was a rapid shift to Twitter and other social media platforms. We explored some popular hashtags on Twitter Myanmar. There are also daily hashtags, e.g. #Feb21coup, #Feb22coup, which helped organize demonstrators, similar to those we observed for the 2020 Thailand protests.

Protests continue in Myanmar. Tens of thousands of civilians flooded Yangon as a sign of protest against the coup, with several unfortunate deaths reported. Internet access was later restricted and popular social media platforms, including Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, were blocked—ironically, the Myanmar military itself was just banned from Facebook and Instagram, with Facebook believing that “the risks of allowing the Tatmadaw (Myanmar army) on Facebook and Instagram are too great.”

The current situation in Myanmar adds to ongoing political upheavals within ASEAN bloc countries. Special powers have been used in several countries, including Cambodia, Thailand and also in Malaysia (with an Emergency) most recently. Several ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, Laos, and Brunei, do not have general elections at present. Singapore and Indonesia face rising online discourse, questioning ruling elites and political oligarchies. The Philippines has more than its share of those, while strongman outsiders have gained public support.

How will the Myanmar coup and protests (and those in Thailand ) affect the region as a whole? And how the coup will end is anyone’s guess, at least for the moment.

We spoke to a Myanmar insider on 24 Feb 2021 (the excitement of this source was palpable and infectious): “55 million are protesting here. We’ve had a general strike for 20 days now. You need cash to buy things. The banks aren’t open and the civil servants are out protesting too.

It has been amazing, and the young have been amazing. Its Thai sim cards and VPNs to beat the blocks. One day, all the vehicles on the road stopped (in protest). Amazing coordination for this. Donors are providing food and water to the protestors. The military said that they have 10 million votes missing, so where are their 10 million supporters? “

Unfortunately 9 people have died; but that seems few for such massive protests. The neighbourhood groups have been watching out for the prisoners released by the military coup leaders to help them bust the protests. I’m not sure if the coup leaders were inspired by Trump’s storming of the Capitol or what. But they’re getting some blowback as there are sanctions/asset freezes catching the retired generals and their wider families; a bigger group is now affected than just a very few under such strictures in the past.“

Check out our graph above of key hashtag tweets, that reaches to a million and more daily on peaks. By comparison, during the Thailand protest period of October 2020, we observed the daily counts for key protest hashtags tweets could reach up to about a million day. In contrast, the Malaysia Emergency announcement period in January 2021 saw limited activity. There, major protest hashtag tweets peaked at under three thousand a day.

By the PolTracker team, 25 Feb 2021

Notes:

a) Populations. Malaysia c. 32 million, Myanmar c. 54 million, Thailand c. 69 million.

b) On sources and language: Hashtag tweets reviewed were in English for Myanmar (and Thailand) where they outnumber local language hashtags. On the protest news front there, our sources point out there is much more in the local language than in English.

911, What's Your Emergency: Emergency Talk Sends Malaysia Abuzz (Again)

Emergency was the buzz word last week. Word spread that the ruling government sought emergency rule to break the spread of COVID-19 as the numbers continue to rise and to avert political instability. Last Friday, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin had an audience with the Yang Dipertuan Agung (YDPA; the King) where he requested that he declare a state of emergency.

Political leaders from both sides of the fence questioned the need for such drastic measure. There was concern this would bring more harm to the ailing economy. Why not use other laws to impose strict movement control without resorting to emergency rule? Critics accused PM Muhyiddin of using it as a pretext to suspend Parliament; and to avoid vote of no confidence on Budget 2021, due to be tabled on 6 November. Muhyiddin holds a razor-thin majority in the Parliament while opposition had plans to vote against the supply bill. By declaring a state of emergency, Muhyiddin would wield power, without answering to Parliament.

The YDPA convened a Malay Rulers meeting on Sunday and came to a decision that there wasn’t a need for emergency rule. The King also called for an end to any politicking that could destabilise the government. He commended the government for handling the pandemic well and stressed that the Budget should be presented before Parliament as scheduled.

Our review of Twitter mentions shows a chorus of gratitude from netizens. #DaulatTuanku exploded on social media over the King’s decision to avert emergency rule. Interestingly, Muhyiddin did not get as much flack over social media, as his other senior ministers - Azmin Ali and Hamzan Zainuddin. But, the sentiment about the sitting PM could have been mitigated by reporting in a more positive tone by the media. Hamzah, who is said to be Muhyiddin’s operative, does not have much presence on social media, and was spared the brickbats.  

Sentiment for senior minister Azmin Ali was most in the negative as he had accused Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim of creating instability and sowing hatred amid the nation's battle against the pandemic. He also said that criticisms by opposition leaders about the nation descending into dictatorship if a state of "economic emergency" is declared is "an act of utter recklessness and irresponsibility most unbecoming of MPs". Azmin who has an active presence on social media was also seen as one of the architects for emergency rule. He also had a pivotal role in the ‘Sheraton move’ which toppled the 22 months Pakatan Harapan government. Public opinion on Azmin is heated. A skeptic commented that “[t]he word unite has become a vulgar word used by losers without an argument. The intention is to shut you up!” in reply to Azmin’s attempt to deliver a message of unity.

Another observer said, a unity government would be ideal until the situation is safe to head to the polls; especially if political parties from both sides of the aisle are not able to set their differences aside.

Muhyiddin is expected to hold his position for now. The storm, however, is far from over for PM8.

By KHOR Yu Leng, Sharon TAN, and the PolTracker team, 28 Oct 2020

From LinkedIn posting

#Malaysia #politicaleconomy. Unprecedented. Rulers reject Prime Minister's Emergency rule proposal. In #socialmedia check out netizens use of  #muhyiddinout #protesdarurat #daruratpolitik (political emergency) and Daulat Tuanku (long live the King). The arrival of cabinet members to the PM's home late last night to restrategize... captured in a tiktok vid (9:04 PM · Oct 25, 2020; with audio track that tickled audiences) https://lnkd.in/gtDT5tc

Bloomberg LP writes:  Emergency rule would include suspending parliament, the sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, a move critics have decried as an attempt by the premier to stay in power amid a leadership challenge... Several political leaders from the opposition and even the ruling coalition have come out against the proposed emergency, saying there was no justification for it except to prevent the collapse of the government. https://lnkd.in/gm5Fwx5