Second Time's the Charm: Malaysia and the State of Emergency

Compiled by Poltracker

Just 13 days into 2021, the country’s political climate remains turbulent with removal and growing calls for a snap poll from Umno despite the raging Covid-19 pandemic. 

To make things even more interesting, a state of Emergency on 12 January to combat the pandemic. This has resulted in the suspension of Parliament and state assemblies. It will keep things on simmer for now and put an end to any talks of an immediate general election.

Umno delivered a surprise on 5 January when Federal Territories Minister Tan Sri Annuar Musa was removed as secretary-general for Barisan Nasional (BN). Annuar’s ‘crime’ was alleged to be the voice of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) in BN.

Days after the removal, Annuar had slammed those in his party for calling for a snap election amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Urging for elections when the people and the country are struggling with Covid-19, floods, the economy, clearly reflects not only the irresponsibility, but also the hunger for power and the lack of sensitivity to the people’s suffering. That is not the will of the grassroots,” said the Ketereh MP in his Twitter account.

His comment echoed Umno minister and Rembau MP Khairy Jamaluddin who said any section of Malaysia seeking a general election alongside the Covid-19 pandemic was “selfish” and “irresponsible”, and acknowledged that the group included those from his party.

Umno has been pushing for snap poll for the past few months in both subtle and not so subtle manner. In October last year, it had threatened to pull out of the PN coalition and more recently Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had said elections could be held with Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) in place.

"Why are we afraid of holding a general election during the pandemic? More than 30 countries have already done so… Why is Malaysia is so afraid? I think that we're not really scared of Covid-19 but of other things," he said in his opening speech at the Bagan Datuk Umno division meeting on 3 January.

While Annuar has remained supportive of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government, his fellow MPs Datuk Seri Mohamed Nazri Abdul Aziz of Padang Rengas and Machang MP Datuk Ahmad Jazlan Yaakob have withdrawn their support. 

Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin's government is now left with 109 MPs on its bloc out the current 220 MPs. The Dewan Rakyat is comprised of 222 seats but is currently down to 220 following the deaths of Batu Sapi MP Datuk Liew Vui Keong and Gerik MP Datuk Hasbullah Osman last year.

At 109, the PN government does not have the simple majority support of the Dewan Rakyat.

Umno was scheduled to discuss its ties with Bersatu at its General Assembly at the end of this month but that will put on hold as Kuala Lumpur has been put on MCO until 26 January with probable extension due to the rising number of positive Covid-19 cases.

It is obvious that UMNO is the key component to keeping Muhyiddin’s coalition alive. PN’s government’s legitimacy has been questioned since the Sheraton move last February. More withdrawal of support from UMNO’s MPs will make the government untenable, Emergency or not.

The only thing that remains in Muhyiddin’s favour is the challenge for the opposing MPs to hammer a coalition to form a government until such time it is safe to go to the polls.

By Sharon TAN, KHOR Yu Leng, and the PolTracker team, 18 Jan 2021

Editor’s note on the data chart:

• Following the Emergency announcement, the government regulatory body, Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), warned netizens to “be polite and courteous” [jaga kesopanan dan kesusilaan: this seems to be taken straight from the Rukun Negara (Malay for the Malaysian declaration of national philosophy), which is generally recited weekly by school students] when expressing opinions online. This carefully worded warning somehow led to Twitter users exposing MCMC past off-colour Tweets, which turned out to be from a previous user from whom they bought their account in an apparent violation of Twitter’s terms and conditions.

• Twitter sentiments on the YDPA appear caught up in problems that users are highlighting for the YDPA’s attention, e.g. complaints about politicians, suggestions to cut their salaries. This means Tweets tagged as a negative sentiment are not actually about the YDPA; it is the issues netizens are urging him to address which are negative. In general, sentiments towards the YDPA are much more favourable compared to sentiments on politicians.

Money, Money, Money: The 2021 Budget

Compiled by PolTracker

Nadirah

Just last week, the Muhyddin administration presented their budget for 2021. Interestingly, Twitterjaya mentions and sentiment appeared less than thrilled, with Tengku Zafrul Aziz, the current Finance Minister, receiving quite a brunt of Malaysian Twitter netizens displeasure.

While criticism of government budgets is a traditional annual event, the air about it feels different for 2020. This year, public disapproval—at least the ones online—seems more visceral than usual, aggravated by the rakyat’s already building frustration due to the coronavirus pandemic as well as the continuous gaffes by the government in response to the recent wave of Covid-19 cases. Public trust in politicians on both divides is tanking, and after the Budget voting fiasco, it’s anyone’s guess how that trust is going to be rebuilt (if it was even there to begin with).

Yu Leng
The Muhyiddin administration is relatively safe until the final budget vote (3rd reading) on 17th December. It won this first hurdle by a walk over! It means that the opposition does not have the strength to topple it. There has been so much chatter in Kuala Lumpur about ruling coalition factions sitting out and even about opposition factions negotiating deals for a unity approach. But the Prime Minister is all powerful in Malaysia’s winner-takes-all political economy.

The “voice vote” and the inexplicable no-vote-silence of major parts of the opposition came as a big surprise yesterday.  Let’s not forget that the underlying mood in Malaysia appears rather negative despite this being seen as a pro-Bumiputera budget. Looking beyond the intellectual chat groups, I was surprised to see how negative is sentiment in Twitter on belanjawan (budget in Malay) and regarding the Minister of Finance. This is another (wider) bubble of opinion but the deteriorating sentiment since the Budget Speech on 6 November is still notable. 

Trumpian politics does point to the big weight of the rural vote while urbanites may be left to whinge on. Those relying on urban votes may feel they sit strong in their niches too. But politicians across the spectrum should not forget there is deep suspicion that double standards (for their benefit) has taken Malaysia from a stellar position in Covid-19-economic mitigation to a plummeting situation; on the back of the free-and-easy approach they all took in the Sabah election in recent months. The obvious Covid-19 SOP exemptions they enjoy are also splashed across social media. The strong wave of Covid-19 cases post-Sabah and the movement restrictions have pulled the rug out from under the rakyat’s feet yet again. Belanjawan/Budget 2021 has to spend wisely to mend all this.

This unprecedentedly awkward budget process will increase distrust in politicians. All politicians will be answering tough questions. The opposition on why so many did not push for a formal count? The PN-BN group about accountability and oversight of Budget spending; to address Malaysia’s chronic untargeted spending problem. The country has been running budget deficits since the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s and even the short-lived Pakatan Harapan administration had a bigger Budget than the Najib administration, and on and on it goes.

Sharon

Instead of allowing people to access their EPF savings, the government should have worked with the banks for an extension of the moratorium for loans. The government as regulators has the ability to make the banks toe the line while the banks are able to withstand the deferred service of loans. Technically, the banks’ are not registering losses but merely deferring profits. A moratorium on the loans would give individuals and businesses a lot of breathing space as they navigate through this difficult climate. As it is many have lost jobs and businesses shuttered, the moratorium would prevent a whole lot of NPLs.

Another case against the EPF withdrawal is RM10,000 would not go very far for most people. Whether it is a one off withdrawal or in 12 instalments, it will not be able to tide much more than three months. What happens after that? As it stands, Malaysians don’t have enough savings in EPF for their retirement. Taking out RM10,000 is a big sum for the lower income earners and would seriously affect their retirement fund.

Malaysia: Mass and KL Elite Mobility

#KhorReports #mobility research. Malaysia mass mobility and Kuala Lumpur (KL) elites mobility combined in one chart. You can see: (i) the panic shopping before the #lockdown: (ii) the crowded recreation parks situation; (iii) the apparently faster reaction of the KL elites pre- and post- lockdowns; and (iv) the re-lockdown (looser mode).

Interesting to see how the indices measure against the first lockdown proper and the business-as-usual phase that was interrupted by the surge of #Covid19 cases emanating from Sabah (its state election was cited as a “how not to” by Bloomberg; but cases were also spreading from Kedah).

Khor Reports mobility and consumer sentiment review

The King and I? The 2020 Bangkok Protests

Thailand may see an end to its political impasse and demonstrations as its monarch signals on compromise.

In a rare interview with the press over the weekend, King Maha Vajiralongkorn said "Thailand is the land of compromise” when asked if there is a possibility of a compromise.

The pro-democracy demonstrations, led by student activists, which started in July, has its roots in the dissolution of the Future Forward Party; which did well in last year’s elections. Considered a new political force, the young urban elite flocked to it and so did their older counterparts. When it was ordered to dissolve over a financial issue (of a loan) and its executives were banned from politics for 10 years, the people took to the streets but the protest paused as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

More recently, the protesters have called for a new constitution, the dissolution of parliament and resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the former army general who seized power in a 2014 coup.

What had made their demands notable is that they have tackled the issue of the monarchy. In an unprecedented move, the demonstrations call for its reform and that the King is answerable to the constitution.

“This is the first time the protests have explicitly called for reform to the monarchy. Partly it is because the current king is so different from his father. He reigns from Germany….  Young people are sick of arcane institutions and rules. It is not just politics but school rules such as having to prostrate yourself and they are thinking why they have to do all these when young people in other countries don’t,” said a political observer in Bangkok. He pointed out that the protestors are embarrassed by how far Thailand had backslided in terms of international perception.

Thailand has one of the world’s strictest lese majeste laws where criticizing the King, Queen, or heir apparent can lead to a maximum 15-year prison sentence.

The protesters have been publicly breaking this taboo of speaking out. They have also taken their protest to social media where they have clocked up millions of tweets; and our Bangkok observers also pointed out a surprisingly audacious hashtag that surged to two million mentions.

(Editor: This is in marked contrast to Malaysia which has half of Thailand’s population. Its tuned-off people could barely muster up 10 to 30 thousand twitter mentions amidst its own political turmoil. See our data analysis on the Malaysia political emergency here).

One month Twitter mentions for selected hashtags relating to the Bangkok protests

In the spotlight are also the king’s immense wealth and power. Since his ascent to the throne, the king has appointed his own military unit and vastly increased his personal wealth by transferring billions of dollars' worth of royal assets held by the Thai Crown directly into his control.

Students are of the view that for Thailand to achieve true democracy, reforms are needed to the the top-down ruling establishment - the monarchy, military and wealthy political elites.

While dozens of protestors have been arrested under the emergency decree in October, the Thai government has been fairly restrained. None of the student leaders have been arrested to date. The emergency measures were subsequently reversed in less than two weeks after even more daily protest in Bangkok and other cities.

Whether there will be a compromise as the king had signaled, remains to be seen and the protests will continue for now.

By KHOR Yu Leng, Sharon TAN, and the PolTracker team, 1 Nov 2020

911, What's Your Emergency: Emergency Talk Sends Malaysia Abuzz (Again)

Emergency was the buzz word last week. Word spread that the ruling government sought emergency rule to break the spread of COVID-19 as the numbers continue to rise and to avert political instability. Last Friday, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin had an audience with the Yang Dipertuan Agung (YDPA; the King) where he requested that he declare a state of emergency.

Political leaders from both sides of the fence questioned the need for such drastic measure. There was concern this would bring more harm to the ailing economy. Why not use other laws to impose strict movement control without resorting to emergency rule? Critics accused PM Muhyiddin of using it as a pretext to suspend Parliament; and to avoid vote of no confidence on Budget 2021, due to be tabled on 6 November. Muhyiddin holds a razor-thin majority in the Parliament while opposition had plans to vote against the supply bill. By declaring a state of emergency, Muhyiddin would wield power, without answering to Parliament.

The YDPA convened a Malay Rulers meeting on Sunday and came to a decision that there wasn’t a need for emergency rule. The King also called for an end to any politicking that could destabilise the government. He commended the government for handling the pandemic well and stressed that the Budget should be presented before Parliament as scheduled.

Our review of Twitter mentions shows a chorus of gratitude from netizens. #DaulatTuanku exploded on social media over the King’s decision to avert emergency rule. Interestingly, Muhyiddin did not get as much flack over social media, as his other senior ministers - Azmin Ali and Hamzan Zainuddin. But, the sentiment about the sitting PM could have been mitigated by reporting in a more positive tone by the media. Hamzah, who is said to be Muhyiddin’s operative, does not have much presence on social media, and was spared the brickbats.  

Sentiment for senior minister Azmin Ali was most in the negative as he had accused Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim of creating instability and sowing hatred amid the nation's battle against the pandemic. He also said that criticisms by opposition leaders about the nation descending into dictatorship if a state of "economic emergency" is declared is "an act of utter recklessness and irresponsibility most unbecoming of MPs". Azmin who has an active presence on social media was also seen as one of the architects for emergency rule. He also had a pivotal role in the ‘Sheraton move’ which toppled the 22 months Pakatan Harapan government. Public opinion on Azmin is heated. A skeptic commented that “[t]he word unite has become a vulgar word used by losers without an argument. The intention is to shut you up!” in reply to Azmin’s attempt to deliver a message of unity.

Another observer said, a unity government would be ideal until the situation is safe to head to the polls; especially if political parties from both sides of the aisle are not able to set their differences aside.

Muhyiddin is expected to hold his position for now. The storm, however, is far from over for PM8.

By KHOR Yu Leng, Sharon TAN, and the PolTracker team, 28 Oct 2020

From LinkedIn posting

#Malaysia #politicaleconomy. Unprecedented. Rulers reject Prime Minister's Emergency rule proposal. In #socialmedia check out netizens use of  #muhyiddinout #protesdarurat #daruratpolitik (political emergency) and Daulat Tuanku (long live the King). The arrival of cabinet members to the PM's home late last night to restrategize... captured in a tiktok vid (9:04 PM · Oct 25, 2020; with audio track that tickled audiences) https://lnkd.in/gtDT5tc

Bloomberg LP writes:  Emergency rule would include suspending parliament, the sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, a move critics have decried as an attempt by the premier to stay in power amid a leadership challenge... Several political leaders from the opposition and even the ruling coalition have come out against the proposed emergency, saying there was no justification for it except to prevent the collapse of the government. https://lnkd.in/gm5Fwx5