Malaysia: Mass and KL Elite Mobility

#KhorReports #mobility research. Malaysia mass mobility and Kuala Lumpur (KL) elites mobility combined in one chart. You can see: (i) the panic shopping before the #lockdown: (ii) the crowded recreation parks situation; (iii) the apparently faster reaction of the KL elites pre- and post- lockdowns; and (iv) the re-lockdown (looser mode).

Interesting to see how the indices measure against the first lockdown proper and the business-as-usual phase that was interrupted by the surge of #Covid19 cases emanating from Sabah (its state election was cited as a “how not to” by Bloomberg; but cases were also spreading from Kedah).

Khor Reports mobility and consumer sentiment review

The Final Countdown: The Eve of the 2020 US Elections

One month of Twitter sentiment on the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates (green is most positive, red is most negative)

Compiled by PolTracker

One month Twitter mention for the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates

Yu Leng

From half way across the world, we're looking at the tea leaves of Twitter mentions. What does it portend for Trump-Pence versus Biden-Harris?

We're used to mass voting on polling day (with very few early voters), but in the US, there has been early and postal voting going on for weeks. Checking in with my US data analytics friend, he had this to say: "Biden has a healthy lead but there is a lot of uncertainty due to a huge increase in postal and early voting by Democrats due to Covid-19 and voter suppression by Republicans."

Sharon

Last election, I had friends who walked around shell-shocked as the results poured in. For days after that, many questioned how did the press not picked up on the sentiment of the voters. They felt that the reporting had all pointed a sure win for Hilary Clinton.

This election is setting up to be another close one as the country is more divisive four years on. Will there be a decisive result on election night or will it take days to announce the winner? If there is a recount, how long will it take?

Nadirah

During the 2016 elections, my then-boss made a RM50 bet with his colleague that Trump would win against Clinton. We half-thought he was joking, so nobody in the office took him (and Trump) seriously.

I mean, yeah, Trump later won and the world got a little darker, but we got treated to ice cream from that well-earned (?) RM50 (I think). Good times.

From a personal point of view, social media for this round of elections seems just as frenzied as four years ago—this time, however, it feels tinged with an edge of desperation. Personalities across all fields have been constantly encouraging their followers to vote, from comedians including Stephen Colbert and Sarah Cooper, to YouTube personalities such as the Try Guys, to artists like Nikkolas Smith and Bianca Xunise. With complications thanks to the pandemic and allegations of voter suppression, though, the million-dollar question is: will it work?

From the PolTracker team, 3 Nov 2020

Ps. Editor: WSJ writes, “3 in 10 — The share of voters who cast their ballots on Election Day rather than by voting early or by mail.”

The King and I? The 2020 Bangkok Protests

Thailand may see an end to its political impasse and demonstrations as its monarch signals on compromise.

In a rare interview with the press over the weekend, King Maha Vajiralongkorn said "Thailand is the land of compromise” when asked if there is a possibility of a compromise.

The pro-democracy demonstrations, led by student activists, which started in July, has its roots in the dissolution of the Future Forward Party; which did well in last year’s elections. Considered a new political force, the young urban elite flocked to it and so did their older counterparts. When it was ordered to dissolve over a financial issue (of a loan) and its executives were banned from politics for 10 years, the people took to the streets but the protest paused as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

More recently, the protesters have called for a new constitution, the dissolution of parliament and resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the former army general who seized power in a 2014 coup.

What had made their demands notable is that they have tackled the issue of the monarchy. In an unprecedented move, the demonstrations call for its reform and that the King is answerable to the constitution.

“This is the first time the protests have explicitly called for reform to the monarchy. Partly it is because the current king is so different from his father. He reigns from Germany….  Young people are sick of arcane institutions and rules. It is not just politics but school rules such as having to prostrate yourself and they are thinking why they have to do all these when young people in other countries don’t,” said a political observer in Bangkok. He pointed out that the protestors are embarrassed by how far Thailand had backslided in terms of international perception.

Thailand has one of the world’s strictest lese majeste laws where criticizing the King, Queen, or heir apparent can lead to a maximum 15-year prison sentence.

The protesters have been publicly breaking this taboo of speaking out. They have also taken their protest to social media where they have clocked up millions of tweets; and our Bangkok observers also pointed out a surprisingly audacious hashtag that surged to two million mentions.

(Editor: This is in marked contrast to Malaysia which has half of Thailand’s population. Its tuned-off people could barely muster up 10 to 30 thousand twitter mentions amidst its own political turmoil. See our data analysis on the Malaysia political emergency here).

One month Twitter mentions for selected hashtags relating to the Bangkok protests

In the spotlight are also the king’s immense wealth and power. Since his ascent to the throne, the king has appointed his own military unit and vastly increased his personal wealth by transferring billions of dollars' worth of royal assets held by the Thai Crown directly into his control.

Students are of the view that for Thailand to achieve true democracy, reforms are needed to the the top-down ruling establishment - the monarchy, military and wealthy political elites.

While dozens of protestors have been arrested under the emergency decree in October, the Thai government has been fairly restrained. None of the student leaders have been arrested to date. The emergency measures were subsequently reversed in less than two weeks after even more daily protest in Bangkok and other cities.

Whether there will be a compromise as the king had signaled, remains to be seen and the protests will continue for now.

By KHOR Yu Leng, Sharon TAN, and the PolTracker team, 1 Nov 2020

911, What's Your Emergency: Emergency Talk Sends Malaysia Abuzz (Again)

Emergency was the buzz word last week. Word spread that the ruling government sought emergency rule to break the spread of COVID-19 as the numbers continue to rise and to avert political instability. Last Friday, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin had an audience with the Yang Dipertuan Agung (YDPA; the King) where he requested that he declare a state of emergency.

Political leaders from both sides of the fence questioned the need for such drastic measure. There was concern this would bring more harm to the ailing economy. Why not use other laws to impose strict movement control without resorting to emergency rule? Critics accused PM Muhyiddin of using it as a pretext to suspend Parliament; and to avoid vote of no confidence on Budget 2021, due to be tabled on 6 November. Muhyiddin holds a razor-thin majority in the Parliament while opposition had plans to vote against the supply bill. By declaring a state of emergency, Muhyiddin would wield power, without answering to Parliament.

The YDPA convened a Malay Rulers meeting on Sunday and came to a decision that there wasn’t a need for emergency rule. The King also called for an end to any politicking that could destabilise the government. He commended the government for handling the pandemic well and stressed that the Budget should be presented before Parliament as scheduled.

Our review of Twitter mentions shows a chorus of gratitude from netizens. #DaulatTuanku exploded on social media over the King’s decision to avert emergency rule. Interestingly, Muhyiddin did not get as much flack over social media, as his other senior ministers - Azmin Ali and Hamzan Zainuddin. But, the sentiment about the sitting PM could have been mitigated by reporting in a more positive tone by the media. Hamzah, who is said to be Muhyiddin’s operative, does not have much presence on social media, and was spared the brickbats.  

Sentiment for senior minister Azmin Ali was most in the negative as he had accused Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim of creating instability and sowing hatred amid the nation's battle against the pandemic. He also said that criticisms by opposition leaders about the nation descending into dictatorship if a state of "economic emergency" is declared is "an act of utter recklessness and irresponsibility most unbecoming of MPs". Azmin who has an active presence on social media was also seen as one of the architects for emergency rule. He also had a pivotal role in the ‘Sheraton move’ which toppled the 22 months Pakatan Harapan government. Public opinion on Azmin is heated. A skeptic commented that “[t]he word unite has become a vulgar word used by losers without an argument. The intention is to shut you up!” in reply to Azmin’s attempt to deliver a message of unity.

Another observer said, a unity government would be ideal until the situation is safe to head to the polls; especially if political parties from both sides of the aisle are not able to set their differences aside.

Muhyiddin is expected to hold his position for now. The storm, however, is far from over for PM8.

By KHOR Yu Leng, Sharon TAN, and the PolTracker team, 28 Oct 2020

From LinkedIn posting

#Malaysia #politicaleconomy. Unprecedented. Rulers reject Prime Minister's Emergency rule proposal. In #socialmedia check out netizens use of  #muhyiddinout #protesdarurat #daruratpolitik (political emergency) and Daulat Tuanku (long live the King). The arrival of cabinet members to the PM's home late last night to restrategize... captured in a tiktok vid (9:04 PM · Oct 25, 2020; with audio track that tickled audiences) https://lnkd.in/gtDT5tc

Bloomberg LP writes:  Emergency rule would include suspending parliament, the sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, a move critics have decried as an attempt by the premier to stay in power amid a leadership challenge... Several political leaders from the opposition and even the ruling coalition have come out against the proposed emergency, saying there was no justification for it except to prevent the collapse of the government. https://lnkd.in/gm5Fwx5

Prepare for Trouble, Make it Double: Anger in Malaysia after Double Standards by Government

In the past two weeks, Malaysians have taken to the social media to vent their frustrations over the handling of the surge of COVID-19.

Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin who had built his legitimacy on his swift tackling of the COVID-19 earlier this year saw his popular streak came to a grinding halt. Public sentiment turned against him in what they perceived as double-standard when his cabinet members were not subjected to quarantine upon returning from campaigning from Sabah. The government had only imposed quarantine for those returning from Sabah on September 27, a day after the state election.

Anger towards Muhyiddin swelled when in his latest address to the nation, he threatened to ‘rotan’ or cane those who has flouted the SOPs. Hashtags such as #muhyiddinout calling for his ouster, #klustermenteri and #doublestandard gained traction on social media as people voiced their anger towards him. Many felt that he should have ‘caned’ his own cabinet members who have not adhered to the SOPs instead of threatening the public. This came after the minister at the prime minister’s department in charge of Religious Affairs was found to have COVID-19. Zulkifli Mohamad Al-Bakri who had campaigned in Sabah which was a red zone, failed to self-quarantine, instead went on to travel to several other states on official visits. As a result of this, several cabinet members including Muhyiddin were subjected to 14 days quarantine as they had been in the same meeting with Zulkifli.

Maaflah jika abah ini mula menggunakan rotan sekarang. [Sorry that this ‘abah’ is using the cane now.]

Muhyiddin and the government were severely criticised when he was found to not have been issued a pink tag for which is the standard issue for those under quarantine. The Health Ministry came out in defence that Muhyiddin was tested frequently and was found to be negative on all occasions. However, that explanation did nothing to turn the tides.

Last week as the infection numbers surged throughout the country, schools have seen a drop in attendance. Several schools in the Klang Valley were also affected where pupils were confirmed to be positive. In the case of SK Bangsar which had two cases, authorities did not shut down the school despite appeals from parents. The parents then took matters to hand when they collectively did not send their children to attend classes the next day resulting in 0% attendance. This forced the Education Ministry to close the school for a week for purposes of cleaning and sanitation which is the standard practice for premises which have confirmed cases. This move by parents is another outraged against the government’s attitude in tackling the health crisis.

At this time of writing, the government has imposed conditional movement control order (CMCO) from October 14 to 27 on Selangor, Federal Territory Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya (Sabah has also been put under CMCO for 14 days beginning Oct 13) as an effort to stem the spread of the virus.

In the midst of this public anger and political instability, MP Syed Saddiq, who has since established his Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda), has launched the PauseMalaysia campaign (#PauseMalaysia), urging all politicians and political parties to stop their alleged tussle for powers and focus on safeguarding Malaysians from the Covid-19 pandemic

Citing Malaysians as being tired of the power play, the campaign called for ceasefire among all political parties arguing that the people are the ones who suffer as a result of the current spate of power grabbing. Pause Malaysia also asked that there should be no general election as long as the COVID-19 virus continues to spread. Its final request was for the government Opposition and Independent politicians to come together, find a way to cooperate and make the people’s welfare their top priority.

This call for political ceasefire is not unique to MUDA. In August, DAP’s MP Anthony Loke asked for a ceasefire which fell to deaf ears. #PauseMalaysia has yet to gain much traction outside the Twitter sphere. A poll ran by BFM, a local radio station, saw 60% of listeners disagreeing with the campaign while Bridget Welsh, honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute said that the campaign was mis-named as reality of COVID-19, patronage and politicking will go on. “Some parties already preparing for elections/by-elections. Muda could be seen ironically campaigning through this initiative. 'Pausing' empowers those in power w/o solutions to problems,” said Welsh.

By KHOR Yu Leng, Sharon TAN, and Khor Reports’ PolTracker, 15 Oct 2020