Plantation corporate news: More headlines for Felda-FGV. Land deals questioned. Felda settler incentives and debt question.

Editor's note: Corporate news update for end April to mid July and early Sep to end Dec 2016 are available on customised; likewise for 2017 news. Updates here are on selected news only.

22 Dec 2017: More headlines for Felda-FGV. Land deals questioned.

Editor's note: Readers asked for follow-up on what transpired. There's been a lot of circulation of the recent land deals question in social media.

On corporate issues

Felda could lose RM200m Jalan Semarak land following 'dubious deal' By CHE WAN BADRUL ALIAS - December 21, 2017 https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/12/316783/felda-could-lose-rm200m-jalan-semarak-land-following-dubious-deal\

More dodgy land transfers for Felda, says report, 21 Dec 2017 https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/28691/

Reactions:

  • Najib cannot wash his hands of Felda land scandal, says settlers’ group  24 Dec 2017 -- Mazlan said those involved in the Jalan Semarak land sale were still part of the Felda board of directors. https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/29173/
  • Deputy minister urges talks with company in shady Felda land deal  24 Dec 2017 -- The company had sold the land to itself for RM270 million and Felda did not receive a sen... Shahrir said Synergy Promenade was given the power of attorney on September 2, 2014 to develop the land on behalf of Felda Investment Corporation, a subsidiary of Felda. The Felda board of directors were only informed of the development  months later so that it they give backdated approval... https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/29149/
  • Felda scandal being used to divert attention from 1MDB, says Isa Samad’s former aide by Amin Iskandar 25 Dec 2017 -- "I am 100% sure that Isa Samad will be charged before GE14. It's to take away attention from issues like 1MDB, SRC and the money going into the prime minister’s accounts  ,” Zahid told The Malaysian Insight.   “Isa’s arrest is very important to Umno, Najib and Barisan Nasional as it will make people forget about the GST (goods and services tax), the scandals at Mara, Felcra, the Youth and Sports Ministry and the Johor exco,” said Zahid, who is now with opposition party Bersatu.  https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/29323/


Newsbreak: FGV investigating overpriced Asian Plantations purchase, The Edge Malaysia December 18, 2017 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/newsbreak-fgv-investigating-overpriced-asian-plantations-purchase

FGV appoints Salmiah, Mohamed Nazeeb as directors  31 October 2017  http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2017/10/31/fgv-appoints-salmiah-mohamed-nazeeb-directors

Zakaria to resume duties as FGV CEO on Oct 16 By NST Business - October 9, 2017 https://www.nst.com.my/business/2017/10/289201/zakaria-resume-duties-fgv-ceo-oct-16

MACC wrapping up probe on FGV’s ex-chairman Isa Samad September 12, 2017 http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/macc-wrapping-up-probe-on-fgvs-ex-chairman-isa-samad#VjD2zuvi4KUooJOx.99

Two FGV directors to remain despite stating wish to resign — Sulaiman by Sulhi Azman theedgemarkets.com July 13, 2017 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/two-fgv-directors-remain-despite-stating-wish-resign-%E2%80%94-sulaiman

The rise and spectacular fall of Isa 25 Jun 2017 by joceline tan https://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/columnists/analysis/2017/06/25/the-rise-and-spectacular-fall-of-isa-tan-sri-mohd-isa-samads-old-school-style-of-politics-helped-him/#2FARBxVMfkC3Ip1E.99

Group calls for revamp of FGV’s board of directors June 24, 2017 http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/group-calls-for-revamp-of-fgvs-board-of-directors#u05m89rXb5oyujwD.97


On Felda settler incentives

Putrajaya, where’s the money, ask Felda settlers by Sheridan Mahavera  20 Sep 2017 https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/15321/

Incentives prove govt's commitment to help Felda settlers 2 August 2017 http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2017/08/02/incentives-prove-govts-commitment-help-felda-settlers

Najib announces six incentives for Felda settlers 23 Jul 2017 https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/07/23/najib-announces-six-incentives-for-felda-settlers/#04aCuDg3VLuxBgrb.99

Najib: Each Felda settler to get RM5,000 cash incentive 23 Jul 2017 Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/07/23/felda-settlers-to-get-cash-incentive-scheme/#6pWjMuI2WSLO4SIT.99

Najib hands out $510m to his Felda Malay vote bank JUL 24, 2017 http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/najib-hands-out-510m-to-his-felda-malay-vote-bank

Incentives futile as settlers’ debt too high, says association FMT Reporters | July 25, 2017 http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/07/25/incentives-futile-as-settlers-debt-too-high-says-association/

Najib’s RM1.6b wooing of Felda settlers wrong 25 Jul 2017 https://www.malaysiakini.com/columns/389687


On Felda settler debts

Only 20 years to pay off debt, Felda tells settlers by Zulkifli Sulong, Diyana Ibrahim, Asila Jalil  25 Nov 2017  https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/24430/

Felda settlers saddled with debts while replanting, says group  7 Aug 2017 https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/9895/

Felda settlers deny being heavily in debt Bernama | July 23, 2017 http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/07/23/felda-settlers-deny-being-heavily-in-debt/

Felda settlers owe almost RM5b in various debts  3 Apr 2017 https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/377832

Rafizi: Felda taking on debt to pay bonus to settlers 5 Jan 2017 https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/368206#fz4jvUh8OBqvZZtx.99


23 Jun 2017: Najib administration sticks Ramadan deadline on FGV tussle - CEO has until noon to reply to show-cause letter; Isa voluntarily steps down and promoted to Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD)

Editor's note: The first day of Eid is on Sunday

Zakaria has till noon today to reply to FGV’s show-cause letter by Adam Aziz/The Edge Financial Daily June 23, 2017 --  Instead of the 40 more days he asked for, suspended president and chief executive officer of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) Datuk Zakaria Arshad has only three more days to reply to a show-cause letter regarding alleged procedural improprieties at a subsidiary of the plantation group.... http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/zakaria-has-till-noon-today-reply-fgvs-showcause-letter

Govt confirms Sulaiman to head FGV, Isa to lead SPAD 19 June 2017 - The Government has confirmed that Tan Sri Sulaiman Mahbob will be acting chairman of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) with immediate effect from Monday while Tan Sri Isa Samad will be acting chairman of the Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD)...  http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/19/fgv-to-appoint-sulaiman-mahbob-as-chairman-replacing-isa/#JSXqDA4zA8WuLxxI.99

13 Jun 2017: Escalating headlines on FGV - can this be resolved by the end of Ramadhan?


Editor's note: Issues at key plantation Malaysia GLC/SOE seen in escalating headlines on likely expanded investigation by SPRM (Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission, http://www.sprm.gov.my/index.php/en/, is on a rising trend with investigations; akin to but still in catch-up to the perceived independence of Indonesia's KPK - now in a tussle with Indonesia's Parliament). Although PM Najib appointed Idris Jala as independent reviewer, corporate observers immediately questioned his locus standi in relation to problems at a public-listed entity (see social media snapshot below; and this was acknowledged by PM Najib's key principles to resolving the crisis in Bernama report). KL observers will be eyeing the headlines at key UMNO-linked media (New Straits Times/NST and especially Malay language Utusan Melayu), and pro-Najib administration bloggers such as Raja Petra's Malaysia Today. Experts say to watch out for the breadth of investigations and concerns of how this affects FGV's Isa political positioning in the run-up to General Elections (a narrower investigation could trigger shifts, but a broader investigation may not meed PM Najib's hopes for the investigation to end by the end of the Ramadan month). Felda voters are the bulwark for UMNO-BN.



Source: Recent social media notes on editorial by The Edge Malaysia; with issues of legality and corporate governance also reflected here: "Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak outlined three key principles to resolve the crisis of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) and wants the issue resolved in the month of Ramadan as well... "First, it (the investigation) must comply with company law. Second, it must be consistent with good governance and thirdly, the investigation process must go through a fair process," ... According to Najib, the appointment of former Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Seri Idris Jala as an independent party to tackle the crisis hit FGV, is guided by three principles.... For now, he said, he was still negotiating with Felda chairman Tan Sri Shahrir Abdul Samad to determine the future of FGV..." in Najib Garis Tiga Prinsip Selesaikan Kemelut FGV, Mahu Isu Diselesai Segera, KULAI, 10 Jun (Bernama)  http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bm/newsindex.php?id=1363513 





Source: NST front page, 13 June 2017


2 groups join calls urging FGV’s Isa to resign by Amin Iskandar Updated 30 minutes ago · Published on 13 Jun 2017 2:56PM FELDA Global Venture Holdings Bhd (FGV) chairman Isa Samad is facing more calls to resign the post amid an ongoing anti-graft investigation. Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) Felda task force and Pertubuhan Peneroka Rakyat Malaysia (PPRM) today handed a memorandum to Isa, asking him to quit. “FGV has lost around RM13.4 billion since 2012 and Isa should resign for failing to manage FGV and Felda properly,” said Bersatu’s Felda task force chairman Wan Mohd Shahrir Wan Abdul Jalil. https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/4982/

Felda chairman to discuss FGV saga with PM tomorrow Updated about 5 hours ago · Published on 13 Jun 2017 10:41AM https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/4954/

Isa Samad juga akan dipanggil, Bagi memberi penjelasan kepada SPRM tentang kemelut FGV by Maszureen Hadzman 11 Jun 2017 3:00 AM  Artikel Penuh: http://www.utusan.com.my/berita/jenayah/isa-samad-juga-akan-dipanggil-1.491964#ixzz4jqqX9bvP
© Utusan Melayu (M) Bhd

FGV: Lebih 50 individu akan dipanggil SPRM, Bantu siasatan melibatkan pengurusan tertinggi by Nazwin Nazri 13 Jun 2017 3:00 AM Artikel Penuh: http://www.utusan.com.my/berita/jenayah/fgv-lebih-50-individu-akan-dipanggil-sprm-1.492664#ixzz4jqqN7dGZ © Utusan Melayu (M) Bhd, https://www.utusan.com.my/berita/jenayah/fgv-lebih-50-individu-akan-dipanggil-sprm-1.492664

Raja Petra Kamarudin – http://www.malaysia-today.net/; various articles on FGV, e.g.
FGV’S SHOCK RM11BIL LOSS IN JUST 5 YEARS: NO, IT’S NOT DUE TO NAJIB & ROSMAH – IT’S DUE TO ISA & HIS WIFE ‘FLYING FIRST CLASS ALL OVER THE WORLD & CHARGING IT TO FELDA’: NAJIB SPINNERS BLAME SCAPEGOAT, June 10, 2017


11 Jun 2017: Felda settlers - much to be grateful for 


Felda Sayong settlers still with Umno, FGV mess or not by Muzliza Mustafa 11 Jun 2017 11:00AM
And despite the issues surrounding FGV, the settlers The Malaysian Insight spoke to last night at Felda Sayong had this to say – they were grateful to Umno for all that they have done. "I paid RM1 and I got 10 acres of land nearly 40 years ago. The earning I receive I get to feed my eight children. If not for Umno I will not be having any of this," she said. The single mother from Felda Simpang Waha was among thousands of settlers who had attended the breaking fast event with Najib at Felda Sayong last night.... https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/4773/

9 June 2017: FGV tussles - anti-corruption agency grabs files back to 2013, first-class flights, 'invisible hands' in procurement, Felda and the upcoming General Election etc.


Editor's note: NSTP carries negative headlines on Isa, but this is not present in Utusan Malaysia news headlines so far. Minor point, that ineligible family travel flights got a top executive dismissed at Malaysia Airlines (another Malaysia GLC/SOE). 

More witnesses, individuals to be questioned in FGV probe: MACC By FAIRUZ MOHD SHAHAR - June 9, 2017, One of MACC’s focus areas was on alleged abuse of power by the top official who had allowed FGV to foot his wife’s travels on first-class flights although she was not entitled to such benefits... https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/06/247275/more-witnesses-individuals-be-questioned-fgv-probe-macc

FGV tussle: MACC expected to probe six areas-- By ALIZA SHAH AND TASNIM LOKMAN - June 9, 2017 @ 11:38am KUALA LUMPUR: GRAFTBUSTERS looking into possible misconduct and abuse of power in Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) are expected to probe into at least six areas that would warrant their attention. Sources from the government-linked company told the New Straits Times that it was clear at the end of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission’s (MACC) eight-hour search in Menara Felda what the officers came for. The graftbusters, they said, took with them papers that would shed light on several “clearly contentious” issues, which the sources said were linked to, among others, one of FGV’s top officials. The documents, the NST was told, included those dating back to 2013. https://www.nst.com.my/news/exclusive/2017/06/247206/fgv-tussle-macc-expected-probe-six-areas

'Stop appointing politicians to GLC posts' By ALIZA SHAH - June 9, 2017 https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/06/247249/stop-appointing-politicians-glc-posts

Settlers group wants Isa to resign By NST - June 8, 2017 https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/06/247024/felda-settlers-group-wants-isa-resign

Isa should have resigned 'a long time ago', says Muhyiddin on FGV tussle By ARFA YUNUS - June 8, 2017 https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/06/247002/isa-should-have-resigned-long-time-ago-says-muhyiddin-fgv-tussle

Government starts independent probe on FGV By TASNIM LOKMAN - June 8, 2017 https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/06/246998/government-starts-independent-probe-fgv

What FGV needs is full audit probe, not Idris Jala by  Tony Pua, 9 Jun 2017 https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/385036#ixzz4jYkY2IJB

FGV tussle: Zakaria to get showcause letter once internal probe completed, says Isa By TASNIM LOKMAN - June 8, 2017 https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/06/246943/fgv-tussle-zakaria-get-showcause-letter-once-internal-probe-completed

Zakaria: FGV’s board, too, should be accountable by Adam Aziz / The Edge Financial Daily June 07, 2017 -- Zakaria also said that he had not seen the irregularities found by FGV’s auditor PwC. “I haven’t seen PwC’s report [why I am implicated]. What are the specifics?” he said.
“As far as I know, PwC conducted a normal audit for the first quarter of 2017. We at the board meeting then unanimously agreed to look into a few irregularities in the audit report, which is a normal process. “But the subsequent meetings, [there were] three of them, were done without me being present,” he added. He said that Felda, as the largest shareholder of FGV, had requested for the matter to be managed within the business operations units of the company, and not the current corporate level. “I did not invite the press, nor did I leak my letter [to Isa] as people claimed I did. Now that the word is out, Felda is very concerned as it has affected FGV’s share price significantly,” he said....   Earlier, Zakaria told the media that any investigation in FGV should concentrate on the company’s procurement body. “On paper, our procurements may look great. But try to see beyond that, beyond the approvals. “Not all of the company’s procurements and purchases go through me. There are different levels [involved]. You have to also look at people who play the smaller roles … not forgetting certain ‘invisible hands’,” he said....The investigation is another blow to FGV, which is rife with allegations of poor management decisions. With the general election round the corner, FGV will need to provide a clearer picture soon lest the issue unsettles its biggest shareholder, who should be scrutinising its every move.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/zakaria-fgvs-board-too-should-be-accountable

'Siapa undi Najib, dapat banyak' ('Who votes Najib, can get a lot') by Sinar TV  Published on 8 Jun 2017 Pengerusi Felda Global Ventures Holdings Berhad (FGV), Tan Sri Isa Samad berjenaka, siapa yang tetap menyokong kepimpinan Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak mungkin boleh menikmati keuntungan FGV pada masa depan. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-49db_36mOE&feature=youtu.be


Zakaria is giving a good fight, expect more dirt to be revealed by Yoursay Published 8 Jun 2017 Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/384905#ixzz4jURoZvkJ


6 June 2017: FGV CEO won't comply with chairman request to resign 

Editor's note: Adds to confusing earlier news swirling on FGV potential tie-ups with the likes of COFCO, Martua Sitorus and others; having already been linked to Eagle High at a group level. Various graft investigations on sturgeon and other deals. A journalist allegedly bribed by a former CEO on 30 May and charged within a week on 5 Jun.


Felda CEO won't comply with chairman request to resign - letter.  Reuters |  Published on June 06, 2017 -- A spokesman for Felda Global, the world's third largest palm plantation operator, said that the board had asked for Zakaria to take a leave of absence effective immediately. In the letter, dated June 5, Zakaria said he had been accused of wrongdoing in payments to a Afghan company that Felda Global had done business with. "The chairman has asked that I resign as president and FGV group chief executive due to accusations that I have violated corporate governance code," he said in the letter. "The payment process... was approved and implemented by the previous chief executive... I am not guilty of those accusations and will not resign as instructed."..
http://english.astroawani.com/business-news/felda-ceo-wont-comply-chairman-request-resign-letter-145206

Suspended FGV CEO says he tried to stop 'ridiculous' investments 6 Jun 2017, 5:37 pm -- Amongst the investments, he said, was plans for a 100 million pound sterling (approximately RM551 million) expansion of Felda Cambridge Nanosystems Ltd, a nano carbon company, which had already lost RM117 million in the last three to four years. "Now they (the FGV board) want to expand, they need another 100 million pounds. To me this is ridiculous, we're a plantation company," he was quoted as saying by The Star. Another investment, Zakaria said, was the plan to spend RM300 million to acquire a 30 percent stake in a creamer factory, owned by a company primarily involved in making cans...  https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/384750#ixzz4jEeUBpb6

MACC prepared to probe FGV for graft - Azam Baki June 06, 2017  http://english.astroawani.com/malaysia-news/macc-prepared-probe-fgv-graft-azam-baki-145283

FGV suspends group president and CFO 6 June 2017 -- http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/06/fgv-zakaria-arshad-suspended/#LmJrOXuiWHmR3lPX.99

Isa threatens to sue reporter over 'abuse of power' poser by Anne Muhammad  6 Jun 2017, 4:44 pm https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/384734#ixzz4jEfKy7DG

The Star employee charged with receiving bribes from FGVH CEO 5 Jun 2017 -- An employee of The Star newspaper was charged in the Kuala Lumpur Sessions Court this morning with receiving RM20,000 in bribes. M Youganesparan was accused of receiving the money from former Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGVH) chief executive officer Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah at The Intermark Hotel, Jalan Tun Razak about 9.15pm on May 30 this year. http://m.malaysiakini.com/news/384588

Felda Global chairman says parent firm not involved in suspension of CEO Reuters |  Published on June 06, 2017 http://english.astroawani.com/business-news/felda-global-chairman-says-parent-firm-not-involved-suspension-ceo-145225

Shahrir hampa 'suara' FELDA dipinggirkan SELASA, 6 JUN 2017 - 9:38AM  http://www.bharian.com.my/node/290120?m=1

WHY ISA SAMAD WANTS TO GET RID OF ZAKARIA ARSHAD June 3, 2017 by Raja Petra Kamarudin http://www.malaysia-today.net/why-isa-samad-wants-to-get-rid-of-zakaria-arshad/

Sturgeon-farming project: How Felda 5 beat the system By ALIZA SHAH - January 26, 2017 https://www.nst.com.my/news/2017/01/207460/sturgeon-farming-project-how-felda-5-beat-system

Felda firm's ex-CEO, director charged with CBT 2 Aug 2013 https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/237515

Indonesian Palm Oil's Stranded Assets: 10 Million Football Fields Feb. 15 2017, Gabriel Thoumi, Chain Reaction Research, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4046193-indonesian-palm-oils-stranded-assets-10-million-football-fields - Four detailed case studies presented: Noble Group, Eagle High Plantations, Provident Agro and Tadmax.

Upcoming financial results, deforestation charge weigh on FGV 27 May 2017 Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/27/upcoming-financial-results-deforestation-charge-weigh-on-fgv/#JFPxpj0W4vyU6VSf.99

24 April 2017: Olam Gabon opens 90 tonne palm oil mill at Mouila

Gabon : Olam ouvre sa plus grande usine d’huile de palme sur le continent 13 avril 2017 Par Jeune Afrique avec AFP -- Régulièrement accusé de favoriser la déforestation, le géant singapourien de l'agro-alimentaire Olam a annoncé avoir ouvert le mardi 11 avril au Gabon sa plus grande usine d'huile de palme en Afrique. « D’une superficie de 17 hectares, l’usine permettra de traiter 90 tonnes métriques de régimes de palmier par heure et de produire 138 700 tonnes métriques d’huile de palme par an », détaille un communiqué de la multinationale singapourienne. http://www.jeuneafrique.com/429541/economie/gabon-olam-ouvre-plus-grande-usine-dhuile-de-palme/

Ali Bongo a inauguré l’Usine d’huile de palme d’Olam à Mouila http://www.gabonactu.com/ali-bongo-a-inaugure-lusine-dhuile-de-palme-dolam-a-mouila/

Gabon context:
  • Olam and Mighty Earth agree to collaborate on Forest Conservation and Sustainable Agriculture in Highly Forested Countries Washington D.C., February 21, 2017 http://www.mightyearth.org/olam-and-mighty-earth-agree-to-collaborate/
  • Olam to pause land clearing in Gabon in truce with Mighty Earth February 22, 2017 by ANDREA SOH http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/olam-to-pause-land-clearing-in-gabon-in-truce-with-mighty-earth
  • Gabon court upholds Ali Bongo election win 24 September 2016 -- President Bongo won August's election by just 6,000 votes but the opposition says the poll was rigged. Following the court ruling, President Bongo called for a "political dialogue" with the opposition. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37460453
  • Olam Pushes Farms in Africa Oil Producer to Stem Income Fall by Pauline Bax July 6, 2016 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/gabon-olam-persuade-people-to-farm-as-income-from-oil-dwindles
  • Gabon aims to cut yawning poverty gap by ending its dependency on oil -- With a third of its citizens below the poverty line, the African country urgently needs to diversify and is banking on palm oil production to create rural jobs -- Ruth Maclean in Libreville Tuesday 16 August 2016  https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/aug/16/gabon-yawning-poverty-gap-end-dependency-oil
  • Gabon Trying to get past oil, One African country’s struggle to diversify Aug 6th 2016 http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21703289-one-african-countrys-struggle-diversify-trying-get-past-oil
  • Gabon looks to Asia to diversify economy By AFP 26 August 2016 -- Since coming to power in 2009 after the death of his long-ruling father Omar Bongo, the president has courted Asian investment to the point that former colonial power investor France has been somewhat sidelined as a favoured investor. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3760427/Gabon-looks-Asia-diversify-economy.html

11 Mar 2017: Indonesia concession maps win for NGO, Wilmar-Amnesty, FGV closes 4 mills and a refinery,  illegal plantations

Indonesian Supreme Court orders Jokowi administration to hand over palm oil permit data - 10 March 2017 / Philip Jacobson -- Forest Watch Indonesia has been trying to force the Ministry of Land and Spatial Planning to release in full the maps of oil palm companies' concessions, known as HGUs. The Supreme Court's decision hands the NGO a victory in its freedom of information request, launched in 2015.. Once it receives the hard copies of the documents, FWI will scan and upload them on its website.. Forest Watch Indonesia, an NGO, has won its freedom of information request. https://news.mongabay.com/2017/03/indonesian-supreme-court-orders-jokowi-administration-to-hand-over-palm-oil-permit-data/

Palm Oil Giant Denies Covering up Labor Abuses in Indonesia By : Beh Lih Yi | March 08, 2017 -- Amnesty said in a statement on Tuesday that Wilmar — the world's largest palm oil processor — had asked its workers to sign a document to deny the investigation findings during a recent meeting with trade union representatives. Wilmar rejected the claim and said the union representatives had "voluntarily" signed the letters as "a show of support" to the company. http://jakartaglobe.id/news/palm-oil-giant-denies-covering-labor-abuses-indonesia/

FGV earnings down, closing 4 palm oil mills, 2 rubber factories, 1refinery BY AFIQ ISA 1 March 2017 Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/01/fgv-fullyear-earnings-fall-on-rationalisation-oneoffs/#7d95AySK8WmB17Cq.99

National park fights back against illegal plantations by Apriadi Gunawan The Jakarta Post http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/03/11/national-park-fights-back-against-illegal-plantations.html


10 Feb 2017: Indonesia wins cases against companies but none have paid fines or compensation, FGV, Sime Darby and other news


FGV: KPF share sale a non-issue BY AFIQ ISA 9 February 2017 Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/09/fgv-kpf-share-sale-a-nonissue/#S5K44jKsR9ZIE4Hd.99

Malaysia's Sime Darby to Spin off Plantation, Property Businesses By : Emily Chow | on 9:00 AM January 27, 2017 http://jakartaglobe.id/international/malaysias-sime-darby-spin-off-plantation-property-businesses/

CB Industrial group files RM8.4mil claim against TDM subsidiary BY M. HAFIDZ MAHPAR 9 February 2017 Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/09/cb-industrial-group-files-rm8pt4mil-claim-against-tdm-subsidiary/#xLR4OJH8e5fdkDHS.99

Indonesia - Government wins in forest fire case by Hans Nicholas Jong The Jakarta Post Jakarta | Thu, February 9, 2017 -- In the fight against deforestation and forest fires, the Environment and Forestry Ministry is on a winning streak, with the courts ruling in favor of the government in cases against companies. Still, the enforcing of penalties remains weak.... In its latest victory, the South Jakarta District Court found palm oil company PT Waringin Agro Jaya (WAJ) guilty on Tuesday of illegally starting a forest fire to clear land in Ogan Komering Ilir, South Sumatra. The court ordered the company to pay Rp 466.5 billion (US$35 million), Rp 173.5 billion of which will serve as compensation for the burning of 1,626 hectares of land in its land concession and another Rp 293 billion to cover the rehabilitation cost for the burned land. The fine was lower than the ministry’s demand of Rp 754 billion.... However, none of the companies have paid the fines or compensation. The ministry’s law enforcement director general, Rasio Ridho Sani, acknowledged that it was a challenge for the ministry to enforce verdicts. It takes time for verdicts to be enforced because the ministry has to wait for the official record of the verdict to be available, which can take months to more than a year. Moreover, there is no standard operating procedure for the enforcement of forest-related rulings. The ministry is pushing for the Supreme Court to issue a regulation on its judges to help with the enforcement of penalties....http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/02/09/government-wins-in-forest-fire-case.html


4 Jan 2017, 31 Dec 2016: Felda-Eagle High Plantations deal in the news

Editor's note:  300,000ha of planned new plantings is reported. By regulation planting should start within 3 years as land bank only can be kept for 3 years, and after 3 years it will be given back to the government. This rule is regarded as better implemented than before, but it may not be as strict as we think, so long as there is progress to show.

Feature story in The Edge Malaysia weekly, 3 Jan 2017 issue
While Eagle High's planted area is 125,000ha, its total land bank is more than 400,000ha. Even though the US$505.4 million price takes into account only the 125,000ha that are already planted, the green light has already been given for the planting of some 300,000ha.... http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my; mentions PT EAGLE HIGH PLANTATIONS TBK https://chainreactionresearch.com/reports/2016-sustainability-benchmark-indonesian-palm-oil-growers/pt-eagle-high-plantations-tbk-bwptij/

EPF not to be blamed for leaving FGV BY M. SHANMUGAM  3 January 2017 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/03/epf-not-to-be-blamed-for-leaving-fgv/

FAQ: The Felda - Eagle High Plantation deal 25 DECEMBER 2016 Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/12/199364/faq-felda-eagle-high-plantation-deal

Strategi Besar FGV Pasca Pembelian Saham 37% Eagle High Plantation 26 Dec 2016 by  Qayuum Amri -- Post this acquisition, FGV will have access to manage 287 thousand hectares of land ...https://www.sawitindonesia.com/rubrikasi-majalah/berita-terbaru/strategi-besar-fgv-pasca-pembelian-saham-37-eagle-high-plantation

Felda says 'no' financial burden from US$505m Eagle High stake buy By Chong Jin Hun / theedgemarkets.com   | December 31, 2016  http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/felda-says-no-financial-burden-us505m-eagle-high-stake-buy?type=Corporate

Felda secures Malaysian govt financing for Eagle High stake purchase  Dec 28, 2016  http://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-felda-eagle-high-idUSL4N1EO18M

FGV continues dip after Felda's US$505.4m Eagle High buy By Sangeetha Amarthalingam / theedgemarkets.com   | December 29, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/fgv-continues-dip-after-feldas-us5054m-eagle-high-buy On Dec 23, FIC Properties Sdn Bhd (FICP) inked a sale and purchase agreement with PT Rajawali Corp to acquire a 37% stake in Indonesia-listed Eagle High for US$505.4 million (RM2.26 billion).... Initially, FGV was to purchase the stake but talks ended following the advice by its bankers, JPMorgan and Bank of America, to opt out of the deal as the then US$680 million price tag was seen as too high for the 37% Eagle High stake.... The latest acquisition by FICP has stirred analysts and critics who claim that the deal was too expensive and would not derive synergy as Felda does not have a controlling stake in Eagle High.

Felda secures Malaysian govt financing for Eagle High stake purchase By Reuters / Reuters   | December 29, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/felda-secures-malaysian-govt-financing-eagle-high-stake-purchase

No synergy seen in Felda’s Eagle High buy By Sangeetha Amarthalingam & Chester Tay / The Edge Financial Daily   | December 29, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/no-synergy-seen-felda%E2%80%99s-eagle-high-buy

Palm oil deal embroiled in Malaysian politics  DECEMBER 30, 2016 by: Jeevan Vasagar https://www.ft.com/content/44e04f0a-ccd6-11e6-864f-20dcb35cede2

Felda-Eagle High deal slammed for profiting Indonesia's Rajawali 29 Dec 2016 -- PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man pointed out how Indonesian billionaire Peter Sondakh, who owns Rajawali Group, had purchased shares at EHP for 400 rupiah per share. It was estimated that Rajawali Group had spent US$570 million to acquire a 68.6 percent stake in EHP. Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/367523#ixzz4UFnsoVEB

Rafizi poses questions to PM on Felda-Eagle High Plantations deal Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/367357#ixzz4UFnZvyRw


News update for 6 Sep to come 30 Dec customised.

5 Sep 2016: PTPN III prepares strategies, Wilmar helps smallholders, Malaysia peatland policy


PTPN III prepares strategies to reverse poor situation Jakarta | Thu, August 25 2016 -- It became a holding company in October 2014 and now manages 13 state-owned plantation firms. 
In the first six months of 2016, it already reported a net loss of Rp 823.43 billion (US$62.14 million) that was deeper than the Rp 529.95 billion net loss it posted last year.
“Our losses were mostly caused by sluggish productivity in our oil palm and rubber plantations,” PTPN III president director Elia Massa Manik said in a briefing in Jakarta on Tuesday.
Elia attributed the sluggish productivity to mature oil palm trees, low commodity prices and mismanagement, especially on rubber plantations.
PTPN III’s plantations are dominated by oil palm trees that cover 57.5 percent of the area, followed by rubber trees that cover 19.53 percent and other plants that take up the remaining parts. 
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/08/25/ptpn-iii-prepares-strategies-reverse-poor-situation.html

Wilmar helps smallholders gain sustainability certificates Jakarta | Wed, August 24 2016 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/08/24/wilmar-helps-smallholders-gain-sustainability-certificates.html

Malaysia challenges the world over palm oil on peatland by Bambang Nurbianto, The Jakarta Post in Kuching, Serawak, Malaysia | Wed, August 24 2016 -- http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/08/24/malaysia-challenges-the-world-over-palm-oil-on-peatland.html

News update for 29 Jul to 4 Sep customised.

29 July 2016: Some sugar growers reject Wilmar, Sime Darby mill cleared, NGO calls on Liberia to prevent the export of tropical timber from plantation concessions, Felda investment - Rajawali deal  

Australia - Majority of Burdekin growers reject Wilmar offer 28 July 2016  -- Burdekin growers have put forward a united front, with majority in the region choosing to reject Wilmar's Cane Supply Agreements (CSA) for 2017, according to local press reports. It has been an uphill battle between growers and millers since Wilmar https://www.agra-net.com/agra/international-sugar-and-sweetener-report/sugar-news/cane-sugar/australia---majority-of-burdekin-growers-reject-wilmar-offer--1.htm

Australia - Sugar industry re-regulation slammed by Productivity Commission 25 July 2016  -- A draft report on the way forward for farm businesses burdened by regulation has reignited a bitter feud in Australia's sugar industry by recommending new sugar marketing laws be scrapped, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corp. https://www.agra-net.com/agra/international-sugar-and-sweetener-report/sugar-news/cane-sugar/australia---sugar-industry-re-regulation-slammed-by-productivity-commission--1.htm

Adani Wilmar to diversify into value-added food business - Adani Wilmar plans to tap overseas markets, including China and Malaysia, with its value-added oil and food products Jul 29 2016 http://www.livemint.com/Companies/MGsBaBBUYBpimJDyoskAqK/Adani-Wilmar-to-diversify-into-valueadded-food-business.html

Sime Darby’s Ulu Remis Palm Oil Mill Cleared for Operations -- Kuala Lumpur, 27 July 2016 - Sime Darby Plantation yesterday received a letter from the Department of Environment, Johor, reinstating the license to operate its Ulu Remis Palm Oil Mill in Johor. http://www.simedarby.com/media/press-release/sime-darby-s-ulu-remis-palm-oil-mill-cleared-for-operations

Take action against errant industries BY DEBBIE INJAN ANAK ANDREW JUMAT - 23 JULY 2016 -- According to the Department of Environment, the total water pollution sources (both point sources and non-point sources) in 2006 is 19.7 per cent in Johor and this region has a high oil palm density. Recently, there were water disruptions in Johor due to Sungai Johor being polluted with high ammonia content. This was detected on July 12 by the state authorities. It rendered the water unfit for human consumption. The pollution forced the temporary shutdown of three water treatment plants: Sungai Johor, Semanggar and Tai Hong. The temporary shutdown of these plants affected 120,000 accounts in the southern part of Johor, not to mention the impact on the river ecosystem....This is the second case after an illegal waste-processing factory was charged for dumping waste into the river last year....Since the 1970s, Malaysia has regulated industrial effluents, including those from the palm oil industry. The Environmental Act 1974 prohibits the discharging of effluents into the river to protect our water sources.  Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/07/160141/take-action-against-errant-industries

“Liberia’s Rainforests In Danger” 07/27/2016 By William Q. Harmon -- SDI says the country’s forests are under renewed threats from what it termed as Conversion Timber/Logging, which the government is on the verge of introducing – and has the potential to destroy the country’s remaining rain forests....At a ceremony over the weekend where the SDI presented a petition to government, SDI disclosed that the Forestry Development Authority (FDA) has developed regulations that would enable large-scale timber extraction in agricultural concession areas for export. SDI believes this will further exacerbate the threats from the oil palm sector...At present, commercial logging and timber export are banned. Were government to permit the sale of timber from the legal clearing of forests for oil palm concessions, this would simplify the laundering of illegal timber and drastically increase the pressure on the country’s forests.... However, SDI has been joined by 50 international holders of the prestigious Goldman Environmental Prize calling on the government to prevent the export of tropical timber from plantation concessions.... http://www.liberianobserver.com/news/%E2%80%9Cliberia%E2%80%99s-rainforests-danger%E2%80%9D   

Felda investment unit, Rajawali likely to ink stake deal soon BY AFIQ ISAandIZWAN IDRIS 28 July 2016 -- PETALING JAYA: An investment unit of the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) may sign an agreement for the acquisition of a significant stake in Indonesian planter Eagle High Plantations Tbk. According to sources, representatives from the Rajawali Group and Felda may be meeting in Jakarta next week for a signing ceremony to conclude the deal, which has been over a year in the making and has undergone several iterations. ...http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/28/eagle-high-deal-at-final-stage-of-conclusion/

Stock With Momentum: Felda Global Ventures Holdings By Asia Analytica / The Edge Financial Daily   | July 26, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/stock-momentum-felda-global-ventures-holdings 

PM: Children of Felda settlers in Klang Valley proof of social mobility BY KAMLES KUMAR  http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/pm-children-of-felda-settlers-in-klang-valley-proof-of-social-mobility#sthash.zURXzuo1.dpuf

Affin Hwang lowers IOI Corp earnings forecast 22 July 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/22/affin-hwang-lowers-ioi-corp-earnings-forecast/

RAM Ratings reaffirms Batu Kawan RM500m debt notes 25 July 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/25/ram-ratings-reaffirms-batu-kawan-rm500m-debt-notes/

US investors ploughing billions into palm oil, claims report - Friends of the Earth warns investors they could be unknowingly contributing to deforestation and land grabs, and calls on them to show leadership Oliver Milman 26 July 2016  https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/jul/26/palm-oil-us-investors-deforestation-land-grabs-pension-funds-banks-forest-fires-climate-change

Failure of Indonesia’s palm oil commitment ‘not bad news’ [commentary] 27 July 2016 / Commentary by Scott Poynton Scott Poynton is the founder of The Forest Trust (TFT), an international non-profit that works with corporations to address environmental challenges. In this editorial, Poynton says there is “no time for NGO Handwringing: IPOP was a distraction. Its demise is not bad news”. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. https://news.mongabay.com/2016/07/failure-of-indonesias-ipop-not-bad-news-commentary/

26 July 2016: Oxfam - 10 Companies Own All The World’s Brands, COFCO-Chinatex Merger, South Africa collusion case and more


This Infographic Shows How Only 10 Companies Own All The World’s Brands by Kate Ryan -- Credit: Oxfam International. Just when you think there’s no end to the diversity of junk food lining supermarket aisles, an insanely detailed infographic comes along to set us all straight. Out of the hundreds of products at our disposal, only ten major corporations manufacture the bulk of what we toss in our shopping carts. So whether you’re looking to stock up on anything from orange soda to latte-flavored potato chips, Mondelez, Kraft, Coca-Cola, Nestlé, PepsiCo, P&G, Johnson & Johnson, Mars, Danone, General Mills, Kellogg's, and Unilever own just about everything you could hope to buy. It seems that six degrees of separation theory has been proven after all, if only because we all drink Diet Coke every now and then. In order to visually elucidate that point, Oxfam International created a comprehensive infographic that reveals the extensive reach of the “Big 10” food and beverage companies. Unlikely ties between brands we largely don’t associate with one another show how easy it is to be misinformed about the American food system. For example, PepsiCo produces Quaker granola bars, and Nestlé makes Kit Kat bars but also frozen California Pizza Kitchen pies. To the surprise of many, Pineapple Fanta isn’t sourced straight from the mythical Fanta Islands, but canned right alongside Barq’s root beer at the Coca-Cola factory....

https://www.good.is/articles/major-brands-infographic?

COFCO-Chinatex Merger to create grain trading force  China Daily, July 16, 2016  -- The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission on Friday announced the merger of China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corp with Chinatex Corp, in the process of creating a bigger rival to compete with the so-called ABCD companies....The term ABCD refers to the companies that dominate global grain trading, serving as middlemen between farmers and buyers. The groups are ADM Co, Bunge Ltd and Cargill Inc from the United States, and the Netherlands-based Louis Dreyfus SAS. Chinatex, one of the nation's main textile and grains trading groups, will become a subsidiary of COFCO, the country's biggest food trader after the merger, the SASAC said on its website, indicating that the central government would push further ahead with its efforts to restructure State-owned enterprises this year..... http://www.china.org.cn/business/2016-07/16/content_38896389.htm

Weak output, heavy levies to slam Bumitama Agri’s Q2 profits Staff Reporter, Singapore Published: 22 Jul 16 - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/agribusiness/news/weak-output-heavy-levies-slam-bumitama-agri%E2%80%99s-q2-profits#sthash.2Uk9UR0w.dpuf

INVESTOR KORSEL BAKAL BANGUN PABRIK BIODIESEL DI KALBAR  Berita Utama | 25 July 2016  http://www.infosawit.com/news/4995/investor-korsel-bakal-bangun-pabrik-biodiesel-di-kalbar

An Investor’s Look At The Financial Performance Of Wilmar International Limited And First Resources Ltd By Lawrence Nga - July 21, 2016  https://www.fool.sg/2016/07/21/an-investors-look-at-the-financial-performance-of-wilmar-international-limited-and-first-resources-ltd/

What Investors Should Know About Malaysian Palm Oil Company: Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad  By Lawrence Nga - July 20, 2016 https://www.fool.sg/2016/07/20/what-investors-should-know-about-malaysian-palm-oil-company-kuala-lumpur-kepong-berhad/

Is Wilmar’s second-quarter loss a harbinger for the sector? Singapore-based agricultural trader cites flooding in Argentina and volatility in soyabean prices by  Emiko Terazono https://next.ft.com/content/911250ea-4f53-11e6-88c5-db83e98a590a

PPB Group falls after Wilmar profit warning  20 July 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/20/ppb-group-falls-after-wilmar-profit-warning/

Soy, sugar rallies wrong-foot Wilmar, which plunges into rare loss  19th Jul 2016, by Mike Verdin http://www.agrimoney.com/news/soybean-sugar-rallies-wrong-foot-wilmar-which-plunges-into-rare-loss--9756.html

Wilmar shares recover, a little, after worst fall since 2012  20th Jul 2016, by Agrimoney.com http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wilmar-shares-recover-a-little-after-worst-fall-since-2012--9764.html

Sime Darby Hudson Knight signs consent agreement over collusive conduct BY MARK ALLIX,  20 JULY 2016 http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/retail/2016/07/20/sime-darby-hudson-knight-signs-consent-agreement-over-collusive-conduct

Sime Darby and Unilever operated a cartel in South Africa by Will Green news editor of Supply Management http://www.cips.org/en-SG/supply-management/news/2016/july/sime-darby-and-unilever-operated-a-cartel-in-south-africa/?src=ilaw

Brexit impact on Sime Darby’s Battersea development limited By Affin Hwang Research / The Edge Financial Daily   | July 18, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/brexit-impact-sime-darby%E2%80%99s-battersea-development-limited

Malaysian Government Studying Sri Lanka, Sime Darby's Plantation Worker Requests From R. Ravichandran http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v8/ge/newsgeneral.php?id=1265252

Govt to study request for Lankan workers BY ZULKIFLI ABDUL RAHMAN IN COLOMBO 22 July 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/07/22/tapping-into-human-capital-govt-to-study-request-for-lankan-workers/

Cargill latest to drop IOI Corp as palm oil supplier after RSPO suspension By Supriya Surendran / theedgemarkets.com   | July 19, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/cargill-latest-drop-ioi-corp-palm-oil-supplier-after-rspo-suspension

Cargill suspends new purchase agreements with Malaysian palm oil giant IOI 18 July 2016 / Mongabay.com - Under pressure from civil society, IOI’s customers attempt to clean up their palm oil supply chains. https://news.mongabay.com/2016/07/cargill-suspends-new-purchase-agreements-with-malaysian-palm-oil-giant-ioi/

Affin Hwang lowers IOI Corp earnings forecast 22 July 2016 - o recap, IOI submitted a status update of its quarterly progress report on June 27 and is now awaiting an official reply from the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) Complaint Panel on its application to lift the certification suspension.  “The decline in market capitalisation since March seems disproportionate to the potential financial impact. A positive outcome on its application hence is expected to result in a share price rebound, in our view,” it said.  http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/22/affin-hwang-lowers-ioi-corp-earnings-forecast/

Worst may be over for Sime Darby’s, but upturn yet to be seen  July 16, 2016 -- As for Sime’s plantations business, it noted that Sime is leading in sustainability compliance and it believed risk of non-compliance is low. “As at end-2015, 100 per cent of its Malaysian upstream and downstream business units, and 96 per cent of its Indonesian upstream and 77 per cent of downstream business units are RSPO-certified. “All of NBPOL’s upstream operations (including all smallholders) and its downstream unit In Liverpool are also RSPO-certified. SIME now supplies approximately 20 per cent of the global CSPO market. “In plantation development, the group complies strictly with RSPO Principles & Criteria (RSPO P&C); Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) processes; and Social & Environmental Impact Assessments (SEIA) standards. Development in High Conservation Value (HCV) areas is avoided and a Zero Burning Policy has been implemented since 1985,” it explained. http://www.theborneopost.com/2016/07/16/worst-may-be-over-for-sime-darbys-but-upturn-yet-to-be-seen/

LIBERIA: Sime Darby’s Response to The Inquirer’s Article  July 26, 2016 Cholo Brooks -- Monrovia, 26 July 2016 – In reference to the article published in The Inquirer on July 25th headlined “Sime Darby Given 14 days Ultimatum” , Sime Darby Plantation Liberia (SDPL) would like to inform all our stakeholders who have been assisting  us and the communities in this matter , that SDPL has received a letter from the communities  that is in substance the source of the story published in The Inquirer . The letter was signed by Eshmeal H. Pusah, Sr . and Jefferson V . Paasewe, claiming to be, respectively,  new Secretary and new Chairman of the Project Affected Community . The letter was also signed by 65 residents of the 15 townships which are part of the 17 project affected communities (P AC). SDPL takes seriously the concerns raised by the community , and that is why SDPL established the independent multi-stakeholder crop compensation investigation on process that would review the evidence and make recommendations on how best to resolve the issue. Meanwhile, SDPL seeks to set the record straight.....http://gnnliberia.com/2016/07/26/liberia-sime-darbys-response-inquirers-article/

IMOIIMAX tanker Stena Imagination is delivered in International Shipping News 16/07/2016 -- The MR tanker Stena Imagination has been delivered from the Chinese shipyard GSI (Guangzhou Shipbuilding International). The vessel is jointly owned on a 50-50 basis by Stena Bulk and Indonesian Golden Agri Resources (GAR) and is the seventh of a total of 13 IMOIIMAX tankers ordered by Stena Bulk. She will be operated by Stena Weco and sail in the company’s global logistics system, which currently employs about 60 vessels. http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/imoiimax-tanker-stena-imagination-is-delivered/

GAR Podcast: The challenges of achieving traceability, access to markets and sustainability targets for smallholders farmers -- Ian Welsh from Innovation Forum talks to Anita Neville, Vice President, Corporate Communications and External Affairs at GAR about the challenges of achieving traceability, access to markets and sustainability targets for smallholders farmers. Listen to the podcast here. http://www.goldenagri.com.sg/blogs-77

Eye on stock; Felda Global Ventures BY K.M. LEE 16 July 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/16/eye-on-stock-felda-global-ventures/

Renewed buying interest emerged in Felda Global, says AllianceDBS Research By theedgemarkets.com / theedgemarkets.com   | July 18, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/renewed-buying-interest-emerged-felda-global-says-alliancedbs-research

Agenda to develop Felda, nation remains as govt’s top priority, Najib says - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/agenda-to-develop-felda-nation-remains-as-govts-top-priority-says-najib#sthash.UBEqOBQT.dpuf


19 July 2016: United Plantations labour contractor issue in the news



Worker attempts suicide, PSM and firm resolve 'misunderstanding' 14 Jul 2016 -- A worker tried to hang himself last month after claiming that a Perak plantation firm he worked for was withholding his wages. The worker was rushed to hospital and a police report was lodged by PSM against United Plantations (UP) on Monday. However, after a meeting with UP in Teluk Intan on Wednesday, PSM deputy chairperson M Sarasvathy said there was a "misunderstanding"....https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/348505    



PSM, Plantation Firm Resolve 'Misunderstanding' Over Worker's Unpaid Salary Claim by Ivy Chang | 15 July 2016 -- PETALING JAYA: Parti Sosialis Malaysia and United Plantations have resolved a misunderstanding over a worker who tried to hang himself last month after reportedly claiming that the plantation firm he worked for was withholding his wages. After a meeting with UP in Teluk Intan on Wednesday, PSM deputy chairperson M Sarasvathy told news portal Malaysiakini there was a "misunderstanding". "The meeting was attended by top level management of UP who explained to us that there has been a misunderstanding, as the worker’s wages were fully paid up.... "However, the management agreed to resolve the complaints and claims raised on behalf of the worker in relation to his employment under a contractor." The worker, B Kannan, an Indian national was rushed to hospital after the suicide bid and PSM had lodged a police report against the plantation firm on Monday. The worker was also "overjoyed" with the outcome, she said.... UP head manager C Mathew said while the suicide attempt was "unfortunate", Kannan had problems with absenteeism and this disqualified him for gratuitous payment. "UP is known to respect and take care of its workers which it will continue to do as it has done in the past. "However, we can’t reward and pay workers who are absent and unproductive... that would be unfair to the many hardworking and productive workers in our company." He said the company was thankful Kannan survived the suicide attempt and would ensure his safe return to India. He added that the company would give him ex-gratia payment for his emotional distress.... https://asklegal.my/p/psm-plantation-firm-resolve-misunderstanding-over-worker-s-unpaid-salary-claim

17 July 2016: Indofood, Golden Agri Resources  to become world leaders, GVL says no timber sales from concession area

Provident Agro to divest oil palm units ahead of moratorium July 14 2016 -- In the wake of the government’s plan to impose a moratorium on new oil palm plantation licenses, publicly listed plantation firm Provident Agro has announced a plan to sell millions of shares in four subsidiaries for up to Rp 2.7 trillion (US$206.1 million) in an effort to provide more capital to finance its operations and future expansion.  The company, jointly owned by investment firms Saratoga Sentra Business and Provident Capital Indonesia, will sell its shares in West Kalimantan-based firms, namely Global Kalimantan Makmur (2.2 million shares), Semai Lestari (100,000 shares), Nusaraya Permai (40,000 shares) and Saban Sawit Subur (200,000 shares)....Provident Agro currently possesses 12 plantations in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi and seven mills with a total capacity of 285 tons fresh fruit bunches (FFB) per hour. This year, the company aims to produce 500,000 tons of FFB and 200,000 tons of crude palm oil (CPO), an increase of 11 and 63 percent compared to last year, respectively. ....Provident Agro was among the major plantation companies that were allegedly responsible for the destruction of 2.61 million hectares of forest and peatlands in Sumatra and Kalimantan last year. According to the Indonesian Forum for the Environment (Walhi), the incident resulted in the deaths of 21 people, while another 500,000 suffered from respiratory problems as a consequence of a five-month-long choking haze. As a result, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo recently instructed the Environment and Forestry Ministry to end the entire process for the issuance of new palm oil permits. A presidential regulation has been prepared to form the legal basis for the moratorium, which will also proscribe the existing idle concessions to be cultivated once the regulation is in place.

...  http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/07/14/provident-agro-divest-oil-palm-units-ahead-moratorium.html


GLC-linked palm oil mill ordered to close over river pollution  15 July 2016 -- A palm oil mill belonging to a government-linked company in Ulu Remis here has been ordered to close for 60 days pending cleaning up of effluent discharge that could have caused high ammonia content in Sungai Johor..... He said the Department of Environment (DOE) received a report from Syarikat Air Johor on Monday and an investigation was conducted before the possible source of the pollution was identified on Thursday. "DOE officers and company personnel spotted an overflow from the drainage where effluents flow from the mill. "This could have caused the pollution," he told reporters during a surprise site visit to the mill Friday. The high ammonia content in the river forced the closure of three treatment plants, causing a major water disruption that affected some 600,000 consumers in the southern part of Johor. http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/07/15/glc-linked-palm-oil-mill-ordered-to-close-over-river-pollution/

Sungai Johor Ammonia Pollution Issue -- Kuala Lumpur, 16 July 2016 - With reference to recent statements quoted in the media, Sime Darby Plantation would like to clarify the following:  The Company has been cooperating with the authorities including the Department of Environment, Badan Kawalselia Air Johor and Syarikat Air Johor since Wednesday, 13 July 2016. Our checks have shown that there was no physical evidence of Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME) being the cause of contamination.... http://www.simedarby.com/media/press-release/sungai-johor-ammonia-pollution-issue

GLC-linked palm oil mill ordered to close over river pollution  15 July 2016 -- A palm oil mill belonging to a government-linked company in Ulu Remis here has been ordered to close for 60 days pending cleaning up of effluent discharge that could have caused high ammonia content in Sungai Johor..... He said the Department of Environment (DOE) received a report from Syarikat Air Johor on Monday and an investigation was conducted before the possible source of the pollution was identified on Thursday. "DOE officers and company personnel spotted an overflow from the drainage where effluents flow from the mill. "This could have caused the pollution," he told reporters during a surprise site visit to the mill Friday. The high ammonia content in the river forced the closure of three treatment plants, causing a major water disruption that affected some 600,000 consumers in the southern part of Johor. http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/07/15/glc-linked-palm-oil-mill-ordered-to-close-over-river-pollution/

Australia - Wilmar raises 2016 crop outlook Published: 12 July 2016 https://www.agra-net.com/agra/international-sugar-and-sweetener-report/sugar-news/cane-sugar/austalia---wilmar-raises-2016-crop-outlook--1.htm

Tensions high as Wilmar and growers discuss agreement Emily Smith | 12th Jul 2016 http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/tensions-high-as-wilmar-and-growers-discuss-agreem/3060009/

Letter: Wilmar not sweet with growers  Jul 12 2016 -- Agribusiness group Wilmar is up to its old tricks – making public comments that it is complying with the Queensland Sugar Industry Act, but again putting contracts on the table that are designed to frustrate real competitive choice and treating sugar cane growers like fools. They have put some innovative ideas around pricing and financial packages for growers, but they are frustrating choice. http://www.afr.com/opinion/letters-to-the-editor/letters-sugar-renewable-energy-and-super-20160712-gq3zrp

Letter: Wilmar responds to Canegrowers' claims Jul 14 2016  http://www.afr.com/opinion/letters-to-the-editor/letters-wilmar-and-executive-pay-20160714-gq5opy

Wilmar emerges winner among unfancied upstream players By Gwyneth Yeo / theedgemarkets.com   | July 13, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/wilmar-emerges-winner-among-unfancied-upstream-players

Why Have Wilmar International Limited’s Shares Lost 36% In Value In 5 Years? By Lawrence Nga - July 11, 2016 https://www.fool.sg/2016/07/11/why-have-wilmar-international-limiteds-shares-lost-36-in-value-in-5-years/


Indofood, Golden Agri Resources Rise as Global Challengers: BCG By : Sarah Yuniarni | on 5:20 PM July 09, 2016 - Indofood Sukses Makmur, the world's largest instant noodle maker and Golden Agri Resources, the world's second-largest palm oil plantation company, are tipped to follow fellow Indonesian company Wilmar International to become world leaders in their respective business, according to a report from Boston Consulting Group  http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/indofood-golden-agri-resources-mark-as-global-challengers-bcg-study/

BRIEF-CFTC fines Golden Agri International for failing to report cash positions  Jul 11, 2016 1:16pm EDT


CFTC Orders Golden Agri International Pte Ltd. To Pay $150,000 For Failing To Report Cash Positions  11/07/2016 http://www.mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/cftc-orders-golden-agri-international-pte-ltd-to-pay-150000-for-failing-to-re/

Sustainable Development Goals and the GAR Social and Environmental Policy (GSEP) - Part 2 Lim Shu Ling | 14 Jul 2016 http://www.goldenagri.com.sg/blogs-76

LIBERIA: GVL Strongly Rejects SDI’s Erroneous Assertion July 11, 2016 by  Cholo Brooks Blog -- It has repeatedly asked the FDA and SDI for guidance on what is legally permissible in order to help the community maximum value from its land. Based on feedback from the FDA following our request for clarity, GVL has advised the community that they will not be able to extract timber for their own business purposes.GVL wishes to reiterate that it has been open and transparent from the outset in this matter and has fully complied with the advice and requests it has received from FDA throughout. GVL has never sought to sell timber for commercial purposes, either in Liberia or for export, and has complied at all times with its own No Deforestation policy commitments’... http://gnnliberia.com/2016/07/11/liberia-gvl-strongly-rejects-sdis-erroneous-assertion/

Liberia: GVL Rejects Media Report 12 JULY 2016 Golden Veroleum Liberia strongly rejects the suggestion that it had applied for "a permit to allow logging for export in its Concession Area" as suggested in the Front Page Africa article of 11 July 2016 titled "Liberia's Forest in Danger - International conservationists Alarm"... http://allafrica.com/stories/201607121233.html

Indofood gets a taste of Turkey with expansion plans underway 13/07/2016 Indonesia’s largest food producer, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk or better known as Indofood has been trying to tap into the European market via its first stop, Turkey. It all started since 2014, where food giant set up a factory in the highly-populated country of a 78 million population and it’s said to be one of Indofood’s biggest markets now. Anthoni Salim, chief executive of Indofood told local reporters during his recent press conference at the company’s headquarter in Jakarta that – Turkey is seen as a bridge to enter the EU. Financial Times reported that the FMCG giant’s target is to increase its global business to 15% by penetrating the global halal food market. In its home country Indonesia, the company dominates with a 10% market share in the FMCG pie, accounting for 70% of the domestic noodle market. This contributes about 65 percent of its revenue. The company has been reportedly targeting emerging markets like Turkey, includ http://www.marketing-interactive.com/indomie-gets-taste-turkey/ing across the Middle East and Africa in spreading their influence plus branding overseas.

9 July 2016: Corporate news update 


Palm Oil Giants In Indonesia Backtrack On “Zero Deforestation” Pledge: What It Means For Investors? By Stanley Lim Peir Shenq, CFA - July 7, 2016 https://www.fool.sg/2016/07/07/palm-oil-giants-in-indonesia-backtrack-on-zero-deforestation-pledge-what-it-means-for-investors/

Palm Oil Still the Gold Standard: Minamas. Palm oil company Minamas Plantation, a local arm of Malaysia's conglomerate Sime Darby, said demand for palm oil will remain robust in the coming years. By : Ratri M. Siniwi | on 3:30 PM July 02 http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/palm-oil-still-gold-standard-minamas/

Bunge sells stake in Vietnam operations to Wilmar Jul 5, 2016 -- Commodity trader Bunge Ltd will sell half its stake in oilseed crushing operations in Vietnam to Singapore's Wilmar International Ltd, the world's largest palm oil processor and one of the biggest soybean buyers, the companies said on Tuesday.  Wilmar, which is partly owned by Bunge rival Archer Daniels Midland Co, will buy 45 percent of the crushing operations. Green Feed, a Vietnamese feed milling business, will keep a 10 percent stake in the operations, creating a three-party joint venture. Terms were not disclosed. http://www.reuters.com/article/bunge-wilmar-vietnam-idUSL1N19R0UR

Bunge, Wilmar to partner to develop Vietnamese feed chain By Aerin Curtis, 06-Jul-2016 Bunge Limited and Wilmar International Limited are set to team up in a joint venture to develop the supply chain of soybean products in Vietnam. http://www.feednavigator.com/Markets/Bunge-Wilmar-to-partner-to-develop-Vietnamese-feed-chain

Canegrowers won't be rushed into Wilmar agreement Emily Smith | 5th Jul 2016 -- CANEGROWERS representatives won't be rushed into substandard cane supply agreements with Wilmar just to take advantage of current high sugar prices. That's the promise from Canegrowers Mackay chairman Kevin Borg as Herbert, Plane Creek, Burdekin and Proserpine representatives meet with Wilmar in Home Hill this morning. Together, they will negotiate terms around their cane supply agreements. Growers who supply milling company Wilmar have had no cane supply agreement beyond the 2016 futures, after legislation was introduced at the end of last year to guarantee growers choice in how their sugar would be marketed. While this has meant growers have been unable to lock in the advantages of sky-high sugar prices, Mr Borg said ensuring the contracts were sustainable into the future was the priority. "Growers are not prepared to sell themselves out for a short-term gain," he said....http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/cane-supply-agreements-up-for-negotiation-today/3057174/

Instant noodles warm up European market for Indofood The Indonesian group is eager to enter Europe, where it hopes to replicate its success story. Read more at: http://www.campaignasia.com/article/instant-noodles-warm-up-european-market-for-indofood/427606

Thousands of Indomie vendors return home for Idul Fitri  The Jakarta Post Jakarta | July 2 2016 -- Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur, the instant noodle unit of publicly listed food giant Indofood, is providing free rides for thousands of Indomie food stalls vendors across the capital to return to their hometowns for Idul Fitri. The company, widely known for instant noodle brand Indomie, dispatched 11,302 noodle stall owners on Saturday using 198 buses to several parts of Java as part of the company's social responsibility program.... http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/07/02/thousands-of-indomie-vendors-return-home-for-idul-fitri.html

Cambodia Palm oil yields up as crop matures 6 July 2016 by Hor Kimsay -- Export of crude palm oil from Mong Reththy Group, the Kingdom’s only active producer, doubled during the first half of the year despite prices showing no indication of improving, a company executive said yesterday. Mong Reththa, vice chairman of the board of directors at Mong Reththy Investment Cambodia Palm Oil, said the group subsidiary exported 13,000 tonnes of crude palm oil during the first six months of 2016, a 116 per cent increase compared to the same period one year earlier. The value of the exported product reached $7.5 million in the first half of the year, compared to $3.5 million one year earlier... http://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/palm-oil-yields-crop-matures

Olam pushes farms in Africa oil producer to stem income fall By Bloomberg / Bloomberg   | July 7, 2016 : 7:47 AM MYT  -- President Ali Bongo, 57, who will run for a second term in August, has said he wants to boost agricultural output to as much as 20% of gross domestic product by 2020, from about 5% at present. Under the government's agriculture program, which began in 2014 and is known as Graine, people who complete a training course or are seen as eligible to farm can obtain land titles in less than a year. Graine is meant to "turn farmers into entrepreneurs," Mr Gupta said.... The government has also fast-tracked the process of issuing land titles to cooperatives and individuals to boost agriculture, Gupta said. About 4,000 people have registered for the programme in the hope of obtaining land, he said. Olam is currently developing 50,000 hectares of arable land into an industrial oil-palm plantation in northern Gabon, according to Gupta. Once the farm is completed, an additional 30,000 hectares will be l...http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/olam-pushes-farms-africa-oil-producer-stem-income-fallaid out for small-scale palm-oil growers. 

Here’s how First Resources is bringing profits back to life in 2016. Sales volume, ASP are poised to rebound. A catch-up is around the corner for First Resources (FR), as analysts predict healthier average selling prices (ASP) and heftier sales volume from downstream operations. According to a report by UOB Kay Hian, FR is poised to see stronger earnings ahead. For 2Q16, FR is seen to record raised QoQ fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production. Estimates show FFB production to be in the 5-8% QoQ, though still down 18-20% YoY. Net crude palm oil (CPO) ASP is expected to come in at around US$600/tonne, reflecting a flat YoY movement and 20% QoQ jump. - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/agribusiness/news/here%E2%80%99s-how-first-resources-bringing-profits-back-life-in-2016#sthash.GwffQmCY.dpuf

Exciting growth in palm phytonutrient segment BY HANIM ADNAN 27 June 2016, Two leading players – Hovid Bhd managing director David Ho and Carotino Sdn Bhd executive director U.R. Unnithan – shared their views with StarBiz recently on the latest development in the palm phytonutrient sphere. According to Ho, demand for palm phytonutrients in the nutraceutical segment was increasing but “still at its infancy stage... http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/27/exciting-growth-in-palm-phytonutrient-segment/

Environmental Destruction, Land Grabs: Controversial Oil Palm Plantations in the Peruvian Amazon - Melka group plans to sell off its Plantations By Forest Peoples Programme Global Research, June 28, 2016 http://www.globalresearch.ca/environmental-destruction-land-grabs-controversial-oil-palm-plantations-in-the-peruvian-amazon/5533205

25 June 2016: PepsiCo "engaging" with Indofood on child labour accusations, Liberia communities MOU with GVL


Indofood pushes Indomie as global halal noodle brand by WATARU SUZUKI and SINAN TAVSAN, Nikkei staff writers June 19, 2016 http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Indofood-pushes-Indomie-as-global-halal-noodle-brand

PepsiCo "engaging" with Indofood on child labour accusations By Katy Askew | 20 June 2016 http://www.just-food.com/news/pepsico-engaging-with-indofood-on-child-labour-accusations_id133586.aspx

PepsiCo products in Indonesia tainted with worker abuses, report finds 23 June 2016 / Daniel Pye -- A new investigation into the palm oil plantations of Indofood, the sole maker of PepsiCo products in the Southeast Asian country, reveal child labor, exposure to hazardous chemicals, below minimum-wage payments and more.  https://news.mongabay.com/2016/06/pepsico-products-tainted-with-worker-abuses-in-indonesia-report-finds/

Liberia’s Du-Wolee & Nyennue Communities Sign Oil Palm MOU with GVL -- Monrovia-More than 300 Citizens of Du-Wolee and  Nyennue communities, including  youth, elders, women's groups, district and county authority representatives welcomed agreement being reached for Golden Veroleum Liberia's (GVL)oil palm operations to come to the area after more than 3 years of negotiation. http://frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/county-news/1123-liberia-s-du-wolee-nyennue-communities-sign-oil-palm-mou-with-gvl

LOCALS SIGN OIL PALM DEAL WITH GVL  21 June 2016 http://www.thenewdawnliberia.com/news/10688-locals-sign-oil-palm-deal-with-gvl

New Britain Palm Oil Limited and PNG NID Sign MOU 22 Jun 2016 -- The National Identification System (NID) will help integrated landowner groups (ILG) to renew ILG certificates and customary land lease insurance for small holders.  This comes thanks to the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) today between PNG NID and the largest agricultural in the country, New Britain Palm Oil Limited (NBPOL) in Port Moresby. Country Manager, Robert Nilkare, said NBPOL impacts 5 per cent of the agricultural business benefits to Papua New Guineans primarily engaged in the agriculture sector. As the biggest corporation in PNG it has continuous investment in estate development and processing facilities in West New Britain, Milne Bay, Oro, Morobe and New Ireland provinces. “Total land investment and development is around 136,268 hectares and has over 23,000 employees, most of whom are small holders,” he added.   Given the economic potential, NBPOL has considered introducing the NID system to its small and medium enterprises....http://www.emtv.com.pg/article.aspx?slug=NBPOL-NID-MOU&

EPO, MoA Leading Rehabilitation Project for Palm Farmers, Grand Bassa County, June 2016 - Equatorial Palm Oil (EPO) and the Government of Liberia, through the Ministry of Agriculture are collaborating and leading efforts to help with the rehabilitation of oil palm smallholder farms in District #4, Grand Bassa County. The rehabilitation program which is being funded by the World Bank, is a pilot study undertaken to revitalize the smallholder oil palm farmers and provide necessary information required for the future replanting of these identified farms to promote an Out Growers Program under the Smallholder Tree Crops Revitalization Support Project (STCRSP). The immediate goal of the project is to provide support for the rehabilitation of existing oil palm farms around the concession who have registered with the program and are in the recently established farmers’ cooperative. Equatorial Palm Oil is providing technical and supervisory support for a successful implementation of this current rehabilitation project. The Ministry of Agriculture is leading the implementation, monitoring and evaluation component of the project. http://frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/county-news/1062-epo-moa-leading-rehabilitation-project-for-palm-farmers


IOI Corp has highest revenue exposure to Europe, says CIMB Research 17 June 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/17/ioi-corp-has-highest-revenue-exposure-to-europe-says-cimb-research/


FGV will only participate in deals with good returns, says CEO 15 June 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/15/fgv-will-only-participate-in-deals-with-good-returns/

FGV calls off MOU with companies Bernama  14 Jun 2016 https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/345223

Analysts applaud FGV’s plan to call off biodegradable plastics  June 16, 2016 -- http://www.theborneopost.com/2016/06/16/analysts-applaud-fgvs-plan-to-call-off-biodegradable-plastics/#ixzz4E07OcbUB

FGV: Q2 turnaround in sight BY OOI TEE CHING - 16 JUNE 2016  http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/06/152261/fgv-q2-turnaround-sight http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/06/152261/fgv-q2-turnaround-sight

Commodities trader ADM to raise stake in Singapore's Wilmar Jun 15, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/archer-daniels-wilmar-stake-idUSL4N197384

Archer Daniels Midland hikes stake in Wilmar with $428.8m share purchase - the shares were sold by Wilmar's co-founder. Food processing conglomerate Archer Daniels Midland has acquired 127 million ordinary shares in Wilmar International for $428.8 million.  The shares were sold by Bolney Enterprises, a subsidiary of Golden Parklane Limited (GPL). Wilmar's co-founder Martus Sitorus is a substantial shareholder of GPL. See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/agribusiness/news/archer-daniels-midland-hikes-stake-in-wilmar-4288m-share-purchase#sthash.Q6X49DaV.dpuf

UPDATE: Rainfall delays crushing at four of five sugar mills Emily Smith | 13th Jun 2016  http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/wet-weather-sets-back-start-date-wilmar-crush/3044088/

Some M’sian firms to take a hit if Brexit happens 16 June 2016 -- KUALA LUMPUR: A Brexit from the European Union (EU) will negatively impact Malaysian companies with assets there including Sime Darby Bhd, YTL Corp Bhd and Genting Malaysia Bhd. These companies are involved in property developments, regulated assets and casino operations... http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/16/some-msian-firms-to-take-a-hit-if-brexit-happens/

A quiet traceable revolution in the palm oil industry - Golden Agri-Resources is the world's second largest palm oil producer. Its managing director Agus Purnomo unravels the complexity of tracing palm oil supply chains and sheds light on how this will give birth to a more sustainable and resilient palm oil industry. By Agus Purnomo  15 June 2016 http://www.eco-business.com/opinion/a-quiet-traceable-revolution-in-the-palm-oil-industry/

Thriving in the face of adversity BY JOY LEE  13 June 2016 -- Lipidchem, established in 1996, started manufacturing stearic acid powder in 1998 with a small capacity of 18 tonnes a month. Powdered stearic acid, derived from palm oil, works as a binder, lubricant and slow release agent in tablets, explains founder and managing director Cheng Yin Tiong. The company’s produce was sold to the pharmaceutical and supplement industry. As demand grew, Lipidchem relocated to its current 2,229.6sq m premises in Kawasan MIEL, Johor Bahru, in 2000. Capacity was increased to five tonnes a day, which translates into 150 tonnes a month, and the company also added new facilities to expand its product use. http://www.thestar.com.my/metro/smebiz/focus/2016/06/13/thriving-in-the-face-of-adversity/


EPO, MoA Leading Rehabilitation Project for Palm Farmers, June 2016 -- http://www.frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/county-news/1062-epo-moa-leading-rehabilitation-project-for-palm-farmers

NGO alleges abuses at Indofood plantations by  Hans Nicholas Jong The Jakarta Post Jakarta | Thu, June 9 2016 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/06/09/ngo-alleges-abuses-indofood-plantations.html

News update

Sipef calls time on palm oil rally - but sanguine on rubber prices  9th Jun 2016, by Mike Verdin -- Sipef called time on the rally in palm oil prices, but signalled some optimism over a recovery in rubber values – even as Tokyo futures in the tyre ingredient hit a four-month low. Baron Bracht, in his swansong as the plantations group's chairman, said that palm oil prices - having jumped by 45% since August in Rotterdam to top $700 a tonne – may struggle for further headway, given the prospect of higher supplies of rival vegetable soyoil....http://www.agrimoney.com/news/sipef-calls-time-on-palm-oil-rally---but-sanguine-on-rubber-prices--9635.html

Indofood, subsidiary pay total Rp 920 billion in dividends The Jakarta Post June 4 2016  http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/06/04/indofood-subsidiary-pay-total-rp-920-billion-in-dividends.html

Indofood to spend Rp 1.6t on new instant noodle plants Stefani Ribka The Jakarta Post  June 6 2016 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/06/06/indofood-spend-rp-16t-new-instant-noodle-plants.html

Indofood to Build Special Factories for Instant Noodle 06 JUNE, 2016 -- TEMPO.CO, Jakarta-PT Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) continues to increase its product marketing in foreign and domestic area by building three to four new factories this year. Based on the press release from PT NH Korindo Securities, the four factories will focus on manufacturing instant noodles. However, it does not rule out the possibility that it will also be utilized for other Indofood business lines. One of the factories located in Cirebon, West Java, has an enormous investment value of Rp400 billion, with three production lines. The number of lines can be adjusted with the needs of the production and can reach up to six lines. http://en.tempo.co/read/news/2016/06/06/056777175/Indofood-to-Build-Special-Factories-for-Instant-Noodle

NGO alleges abuses at Indofood plantations Hans Nicholas Jong The Jakarta Post  June 9 2016 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/06/09/ngo-alleges-abuses-indofood-plantations.html

Japanese Firm To Build Rp200 Billion Salt Factory in East Nusa Tenggara: BKPM By : Sarah Yuniarni June 06, 2016 http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/japanese-firm-build-rp200-billion-salt-factory-east-nusa-tenggara-bkpm/

Malaysian palm oil giant IOI drops lawsuit against green group - Former Unilever and Nestlé supplier says it now aims to comply with the RSPO’s highest level of accreditation by the end of the year  Karl Mathiesen 7 June 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/jun/07/palm-oil-ioi-rspo-unilever-nestle-kelloggs-mars-deforestation-indonesia


Palm oil giant's impact in Indonesia worse than reported, says Greenpeace - The NGO accuses Malaysian palm oil company IOI of failing to act in accordance with its own sustainability policies and Indonesian law Hannah Gould 9 June 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/jun/09/palm-oil-giant-ioi-impact-indonesia-worse-than-reported-says-greenpeace


Sime Darby Plantation buys sustainable oil from small producers in Sabah  9 June 2016 -- KUALA LUMPUR: Sime Darby Plantation is working with Malaysian-based social enterprise Wild Asia (WA) to assist small oil palm producers in the Lower Kinabatangan area in Sabah to be part of its sustainable palm oil value chain.  Under the partnership, Sime Darby Plantion will secure the supply of certified oil palm Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) from small producers under the Wild Asia Group Scheme (WAGS) for its Sandakan palm oil mill.  In a statement on Thursday, the company said there are about 1,000 small producers in the Lower Kinabatangan area, of which 400 have been identified by WA. This includes 115 which have achieved the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) certification for their operations.  The company added that they will work to assist the other small producers in the area to achieve RSPO certification, in order to ensure a more steady income for them....Small producers in the lower Kinabatangan area are a group of independent oil palm growers, each with less than 500 hectares of planted areas.   They also include smallholders with even smaller plantation size of 50 hectares and below.... http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/09/sime-darby-plantation-buys-sustainable-oil-from-small-producers-in-sabah/

IOI ready to settle RSPO issues 3 June 2016 -- KUALA LUMPUR: Plantation giant, IOI Corp Bhd has submitted documents to comply with conditions set by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) for the lifting of the suspension.  CIMB Research expect this case to be deliberated at RSPO’s complaints panel (CP) meeting in June 2016 and the suspension could be lifted if the CP was satisfied with IOI’s submission. “We gathered from the RSPO website that the CP meets once a month via teleconference. We are of the view that if the CP is satisfied with IOI’s submission and accepts its plans, the CP is likely to recommend that the RSPO Board of Governors lifts IOI Corp’s RSPO certification suspension.  “However, should there be queries by the CP on the submissions, the lifting of suspension may be delayed until the next meeting,” CIMB Research said.... It added that there was a possibility that the challenge in Switzerland would be dropped once the suspension is lifted.  Last month, IOI Corp filed challenge proceedings in the Zurich Court of Switzerland against the RSPO board of governors’ decision to suspend the company. Following this, the court has set a date for conciliatory hearing by the Justice of Peace with both parties present....http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/03/ioi-ready-to-settle-rspo-issues/

In what is the biggest transaction in a Good Class Bungalow Area in nearly a year, a house along Kingsmead Road where the late Raffles Institution principal Philip Liau used to reside is being sold for S$29 million... The buyer is understood to be Darwin Indigo, a nephew of Wilmar executive deputy chairman Martua Sitorus. Mr Indigo, who is in his mid-30s, is deputy country head (Indonesia) at Wilmar International. He also sits on the board of Kencana Agri Ltd, an associate company of Wilmar. http://business.asiaone.com/property/news/kingsmead-road-good-class-bungalow-sold-29-million#sthash.dXesHMM4.dpuf


New GRAIN article: ADM’s offshore links to Wilmar, world’s worst environmental offender by GRAIN | 08 June 2016 -- Wilmar, based in Singapore, amassed 600,000 hectares of oil palm plantations through deforestation and the violent eviction of local communities. Newsweek magazine ranked it as the world’s “worst” corporation in terms of environmental performance. But this criticism of Wilmar rarely spills over to ADM, one of its top shareholders. Few people appear to be aware of the offshore structure through which ADM and Wilmar are so deeply entwined. https://www.grain.org/bulletin_board/entries/5473-new-grain-article-adm-s-offshore-links-to-wilmar-world-s-worst-environmental-offender

FGV to maintain policy of paying out half of net profits to shareholders  By OOI TEE CHING - 1 June 2016 http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/06/149107/fgv-maintain-policy-paying-out-half-net-profits-shareholders

Adani Wilmar, Ruchi Soya ink consumer goods JV TNN | May 31, 2016 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Adani-Wilmar-Ruchi-Soya-ink-consumer-goods-JV/articleshow/52511832.cms


Ruchi Soya and Adani Wilmar plan joint venture in India May 25, 2016 http://in.reuters.com/article/ruchisoya-wilmar-india-idINKCN0YG1TE

GVL donates crude palm oil to host communities in Sinoe 24 May 2016 http://www.thenewdawnliberia.com/news/10479-gvl-donates-crude-palm-oil-to-host-communities-in-sinoe

Liberia: Soros Connection - Why Global Witness Report Won't Go Away -- By Rodney D. Sieh Monrovia — George Soros is widely known as the hedge fund tycoon and renowned philanthropist. His philanthropic work has been instrumental to Liberia where since the ascendance to office of President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, the country has benefited from millions in various humanitarian areas... His son, Alexander, is the founder of The Alexander Soros Foundation, an organization promoting civil rights, social justice and education. The younger Soros who visited Liberia sits on the board Global Witness, which exposes and breaks the links between natural resources, conflict and corruption; and the Open Society Foundations, the New York City-based group founded by his dad who works to build vibrant and tolerant democracies. While both organizations receive strong financial support from the Soros Foundation, it is the former that has been in the thick of exposing lapses in Liberia's governance, since it started in 1993 and dubbed by many as Soros' anti-corruption campaigner group....http://allafrica.com/stories/201605240833.html

Liberia: GVL Repudiates Erroneous Allegations of Child Labour 25 May 2016 -- press release. Monrovia — Golden Veroleum Liberia strongly rejects allegations of child labor by the company as contained in recent news report published by Daily Observer Newspaper title "Advocate Demands Justice for Children" and the New Dawn Newspaper report titled "Liberian Children Alarm Danger" published on 25 and 18 May 2016. GVL policies are clear; we don't hire children at all. GVL makes similar requirement of its subcontractor and suppliers, and works to monitor their workforces. http://allafrica.com/stories/201605251434.html

Sime Darby denies employment of children  May 23, 2016 Cholo Brooks Blog -- In reference to an article in The New Dawn titled “Liberian Children Alarm Danger” published on 18 May, Sime Darby Plantation (Liberia) Inc. (SDPL) denies the allegation that the company employs children in its operations. SDPL does not employ any children in Liberia or anywhere else and it respects and abides by the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child and the Liberian Law. Our workers’ union, General Agriculture and Allied Workers Union of Liberia (GAAWUL) through the signed Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), ensures that there are no children employed with our company. http://gnnliberia.com/2016/05/23/sime-darby-denies-employment-children/


EXCLUSIVE: Mondelēz urges IOI Group not to sue RSPO By David Burrows, 26-May-2016 Mondelēz International has called on palm oil supplier IOI Group to withdraw its legal action against the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO). http://www.foodnavigator.com/Market-Trends/EXCLUSIVE-Mondelez-urges-IOI-Group-not-to-sue-RSPO

Sime Darby’s earnings hard hit by harsh weather   By Meena Lakshana / The Edge Financial Daily   | May 26, 2016 : 9:36 AM MYT    This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on May 26, 2016. KUALA LUMPUR: The dry weather in the past few months due to the El Nino phenomenon has severely affected the yields of Sime Darby Bhd’s plantations, said its president and group chief executive Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh.... http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/sime-darby%E2%80%99s-earnings-hard-hit-harsh-weather

Felda Global Ventures hit by Q1 pre-tax loss of RM70.35m May 24, 2016- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/felda-global-ventures-hit-by-q1-pre-tax-loss-of-rm70.35m#sthash.cF7Dy4DU.dpuf 

Crude palm oil prices to average RM2,500 per tonne in 2016 - Felda Global CEO   By Reuters / Reuters   | May 24, 2016  KUALA LUMPUR (May 24): Malaysia's Felda Global Ventures chief executive Zakaria Arshad said on Tuesday crude palm oil prices will average RM2,500 per tonne in 2016, up from RM2,275 last year. Felda, which is the world's third-largest palm plantation operator, on Tuesday reported a first-quarter net  http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/crude-palm-oil-prices-average-rm2500-tonne-2016-felda-global-ceo

Palm oil to rise on El Nino as industry prepares for La Nina - Felda CEO by Reuters  24 May 2016  http://news.trust.org/item/20160524094307-sihur/

Chinese trade council opens office in Jakarta The Jakarta Post  Jakarta | Wed, May 18 2016 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/05/18/chinese-trade-council-opens-office-in-jakarta.html

Palu KEK sees Rp 6.1t investment interest by Ruslan Sangadji  The Jakarta Post  Palu | May 19 2016 -- Thirty six companies have shown interest in investing in the KEK, with total investment value of Rp 6.1 trillion (US$455 million).  That includes seven firms interested in developing Rp 3.5 trillion worth of nickel and iron smelters. “There are other companies engaged in the agro-based industries, including rattan, fisheries, onion, rubber and cloves,” Central Sulawesi Governor Longki Djanggola said last week.....In addition, some companies have also signed letter of intents with the Palu administration pertaining to clean water and waste treatment. Six of them have acquired land that will be used as tapioca, coconut and cocoa processing zones. However, only publicly listed food giant Indofood Sukses Makmur has commenced construction. “I hope that after Indofood, other companies will follow,” Longki said.  Indofood plans to build a corn processing factory in the KEK to serve the ASEAN market. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/05/19/palu-kek-sees-rp-61t-investment-interest.html

NGOs call for mass boycott of palm oil giant IOI - A group of 22 non-government organisations has called on all consumer brands and palm oil traders to cut ties with IOI Group, adding to the Malaysian palm oil giant's reputational and economic troubles.  By Vaidehi Shah 13 May 2016 http://www.eco-business.com/news/ngos-call-for-mass-boycott-of-palm-oil-giant-ioi/

IOI Corp returns to profitability in 3Q with RM748.4m net profit By Chester Tay / theedgemarkets.com   | May 18, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/ioi-corp-returns-profitability-3q-rm7484m-net-profit

RSPO – it’s hard to live with it BY HANIM ADNAN 14 May 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/14/rspo-its-hard-to-live-with-it/

IOI Corp's Loders Croklaan, LCK Nutrition call off JV plan BY JOSEPH CHIN 19 May 2016 -- KUALA LUMPUR: IOI Corporation Bhd unit Loders Croklaan Group B.V. and Ireland's  LCK Nutrition Ltd have called off their joint venture which would have involved the development of the nutrition lipid Betapol. IOI Corp said on Thursday the agreement, which was entered into on June 23, 2015,  was for Loders Croklaan to subscribe for a stake in LCK Nutrition Ltd for US$25mil. Under the corporate exercise, the Betapol business (consisting business intellectual property, goodwill, contracts, sales book and records) would be trasferred from Loders Croklaan to LCK Nutrition for US$25mil. In the June 23, 2015 announcement to Bursa Malaysia, IOI Corp said Betapol, which is one of Loders Croklaan’s most groundbreaking innovations, is a palm oil-derived nutritional additive which is used to fortify infant milk powder globally.  The incorporation of LCK Nutrition and the subscription was for the formation of a 50:50 JV with a subsidi http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/19/ioi-corp-loders-croklaan-lck-nutrition-call-off-jv-plan/ary of Kerry Group Plc to develop and market the nutrition lipid Betapol business. 

Bumitama Agri’s profits bloom 26% to $23.58m in Q1 16 May 16 http://sbr.com.sg/agribusiness/news/bumitama-agri%E2%80%99s-profits-bloom-26-2358m-in-q1

Equatorial Palm Oil widens H1 pretax loss By StockMarketWire | Mon, 16th May 2016 -- "The commitment by LPD to begin construction of the new 60 mt/hr mill at Palm Bay Estate confirms the Directors' views that Liberia can be a significant producer of crude palm oil in years to come.....  EPO fully engaged with High Carbon Stock ("HCS") assessment and committed to establish clear parameters, alongside stakeholders, for the development of new plantations..  MOU signed with villages on Palm Bay Estate delineating clear boundaries for development of oil palm and adhering to free, prior and informed consent, post period. http://www.iii.co.uk/stockmarketwire/317446/equatorial-palm-oil-widens-h1-pretax-loss 

Equatorial Palm Oil Reports Wider Interim Loss During First Half 16th May 2016 http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=znwz226x&headline=Equatorial_Palm_Oil_Reports_Wider_Interim_Loss_During_First_Half

First Resources’ Q1 profits crash 78% to $6.86m by Singapore Business Review – May 16, 2016 https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-resources-q1-profits-crash-041500796.html

A Quantum Leap with Genome Select - Sime Darby Plantation’s first step towards a 100% commercial replanting programme with genome research materials known as ‘Genome Select’. The projected yield benefits - an average yield of 9.9 metric tonnes of oil per hectare as a first 5 year average yield under the best environmental conditions http://www.simedarby.com/about-us/our-stories/a-quantum-leap-with-genome-select

North Queensland cane farmers push Wilmar for sugar supply agreements QLD Country Hour By Lara Webster  19 May 2016 -- Rallying sugar prices have renewed frustrations for cane growers who still do not have contracts for the 2017 season in place. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-18/mackay-cane-growers-push-wilmar-for-contracts/7424868

White & Case Advises Wilmar Europe on Acquisition in Italy and Poland  16 MAY 2016   Press Release http://www.whitecase.com/news/white-case-advises-wilmar-europe-acquisition-italy-and-poland

Wilmar's quarterly profit rises despite market volatility  13th May 2016, by Jamie Day http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wilmars-quarterly-profit-rises-despite-market-volatility--9557.html

KLK is example of growing from small to giant size company BY IDRIS JALA 16 May 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/16/hedging-naturally/

Golden Agri returns to profitability in Q1 MAY 14, 2016 - Stronger sales, better margins help palm oil producer turn around http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/golden-agri-returns-to-profitability-in-q1

UPDATE 2-Palm oil producers predict El Nino to hit 2016 output May 13, 2016  By Aradhana Aravindan * Olam CEO says cotton prices rangebound * Olam sees El Nino hits Indonesia, Malaysia palm oil output * Olam sees 2015/16 cocoa deficit as worst in 30 years * Golden Agri sees its palm output down 10-15 pct this year  http://in.reuters.com/article/olam-intl-cotton-prices-idINL3N18A257

How Does Golden Agri-Resources Ltd Stack Up Against United Plantations Berhad? By Stanley Lim Peir Shenq, CFA - May 17, 2016 https://www.fool.sg/2016/05/17/how-does-golden-agri-resources-ltd-stack-up-against-united-plantations-berhad/

Latest Earnings from Golden Agri-Resources Ltd: Earnings Soar Despite Lower Revenue y James Yeo - May 16, 2016 https://www.fool.sg/2016/05/16/latest-earnings-from-golden-agri-resources-ltd-earnings-soar-despite-lower-revenue/

ew Felda Global Ventures group president confident of palm oil business profitability by year end By Melissa Goh, Malaysia Bureau Chief, Channel NewsAsia http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/new-felda-global-ventures/2789224.html

Question marks over 'luxury condos bought by Felda unit' Alyaa Azhar     18 May 2016, https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/341988

Felda’s million dollar luxury condo in Kuala Lumpur a shocker! By The Independent -  May 19, 2016  http://theindependent.sg/my/feldas-million-dollar-luxury-condo-in-kuala-lumpur-a-shocker/

Zakaria makes his moves at FGV BY AFIQ ISA  14 May 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/14/zakaria-makes-his-moves-at-fgv/

Fonterra PKE supplier banned after forest fires, dairy feed price may rise TOM PULLAR-STRECKER May 19 2016 -- The consequences of last year's massive forest fires in Indonesia finally look set to catch up with the Kiwi dairy industry. Fonterra will no longer be supplied with palm kernel expeller (PKE) from plantations owned by IOI Group, which is the second-largest palm plantation owner listed on the Malaysian stock market. The ban could increase the price of PKE, which has become an important supplementary feed for New Zealand cattle despite concerns over the environmental impact of its production. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/80176264/palm-oil-ruling-supports-environmentalists-concerns-over-nz-link-to-deforestation

Top palm oil producer sues green group over deforestation allegations - Malaysian palm giant, IOI, lost business after it was suspended from the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil’s certification scheme over deforestation allegations in Indonesia by Adam Vaughan 9 May 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/09/top-palm-oil-producer-sues-green-group-over-deforestation-allegations

Nestlé to cut all ties with IOI over palm oil action plan: 'It doesn’t go far enough' By David Burrows, 12-May-2016 --  Nestlé is cutting ties with palm oil supplier IOI. No new contracts will be awarded to the Malaysian firm and all existing ones will be “phased out” by the end of August, explained senior corporate spokesperson Nina Caren Kruchten in an email to FoodNavigator. http://www.foodnavigator.com/Business/Nestle-to-cut-all-ties-with-IOI-over-palm-oil-action-plan-It-doesn-t-go-far-enough

Selldown on IOI overdone, Maybank Research sees strong Q3 results 12 May 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/12/selldown-on-ioi-corp-overdone/


Tomco Energy assessing West African palm oil venture 19 May 2016 -- Tomco says the palm oil opportunity has low capex costs and potential for cash flows starting in mid-2017. http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/126124/tomco-energy-assessing-west-african-palm-oil-venture-126124.html

Indofood first-quarter earnings increase May 6, 2016 - by World Grain Staff http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2016/05/Indofood_firstquarter_earnings.aspx?ID=%7B5B35C73F-EA36-4819-A2E1-16502BA78287%7D&cck=1

Land rights at root of palm oil conflict in Liberia, campaigners say BY MATTHEW PONSFORD  May 6, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-liberia-land-palmoil-idUSKCN0XX17U

FGV, Felda Group pullout from RSPO certs 'done in settlers' best interest' BY OOI TEE CHING - 9 MAY 2016 Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/05/144685/fgv-felda-group-pullout-rspo-certs-done-settlers-best-interest

FGV to list subsidiaries 'when the time is right' BY OOI TEE CHING - 12 MAY 2016  http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/05/145260/fgv-list-subsidiaries-when-time-right http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/05/145260/fgv-list-subsidiaries-when-time-right

Media Release: FGV and MARA explores opportunities in Aerospace and Aviation Industry - See more at: http://www.feldaglobal.com/media-release-fgv-and-mara/#sthash.rACAte9Y.dpuf

Wilmar Tumbles After Warning of Challenging Months Ahead by  Anuradha Raghu  May 11, 2016 -- Processing margins are pressured by gains in palm oil price. Wilmar least leveraged major producer to price increases http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/wilmar-shares-tumble-after-warning-of-challenging-months-ahead

Indonesian Tycoons in Panama Papers 10 MAY, 2016 -- TEMPO.CO, Jakarta- The access to Panama Papers has been opened for public today. In the past year, 370 journalists from 76 countries - organized by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) - have been investigating 11.5 million data in the document. A number of Indonesian tycoons have been hiring a Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca to set up shell companies. The documents of Mossack Fonseca’s clients, known as the Panama Papers, list a number of Indonesian families, among others, Mochtar Riady family (ranked sixth in Forbes’ Indonesia’s richest list), Martua Sitorus-owner of Wilmar International Ltd, and Ciputra family.... http://en.tempo.co/read/news/2016/05/10/055769644/Indonesian-Tycoons-in-Panama-Papers

FGV sets precedent with withdrawal from RSPO cert BY HANIM ADNAN  9 May 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/09/fgv-sets-precedent-with-withdrawal-from-rspo/

Major milestone for Sime Darby BY P. ARUNA  9 May 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/09/major-milestone-for-sime-darby/


Super Seed Identified to Produce More Palm Oil Using Less Land  May 09, 2016 Robert Hii Sustainable Business Consultant  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-hii/super-seed-identified-to-_b_9866180.html

The path to sustainable palm oil By Jessica Cheam 12 May 2016 - Eco-Business editor Jessica Cheam sits down for a chat with Golden Agri-Resources managing director for sustainability, Agus Purnomo, on the company’s sustainability journey thus far. http://www.eco-business.com/news/the-path-to-sustainable-palm-oil/


FGV, Felda Group pullout from RSPO certs 'done in settlers' best interest' BY OOI TEE CHING - 9 MAY 2016 http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/05/144685/fgv-felda-group-pullout-rspo-certs-done-settlers-best-interest

FGV, Felda Group pullout from RSPO certs 'done in settlers' best interest' BY OOI TEE CHING - 9 MAY 2016 http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/05/144685/fgv-felda-group-pullout-rspo-certs-done-settlers-best-interest

Indonesia takes aim at palm oil after forest fires By Kiki Siregar, AFP May 2, 2016 http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/indonesia/2016/05/02/464893/Indonesia-takes.htm

Pressure Builds on Snack Food Giant PepsiCo to Drop Conflict Palm Oil April 29, 2016  Rainforest Action Network and SumOfUs help rally 100,000’s of people calling on PepsiCo to take meaningful action to halt deforestation and human rights abuses in its supply chain http://www.ran.org/pressure_builds_on_snack_food_giant_pepsico_to_drop_conflict_palm_oil

PZ Cussons calls for global suppliers to set up in Nigeria May 4, 2016 by  Georgina Caldwell https://globalcosmeticsnews.com/africa-middle-east/2703/pz-cussons-calls-for-global-suppliers-to-set-up-in-nigeria

Equatorial Palm Oil signs MOU with Liberian communities Josh White | Sharecast | 05 May, 2016 http://www.digitallook.com/news/aim-bulletin/equatorial-palm-oil-signs-mou-with-liberian-communities--1152577.html

Analysts negative on FGV’s decision to withdraw RSPO certification  5 May 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/05/analysts-negative-on-fgvs-decision/

Malaysia's Felda Global Ventures withdraws RSPO certificates from 58 mills May 3, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-felda-glo-vntrs-idUSL3N1801QI

Palm oil in Cameroon – ‘a blessing or a curse’ to small-scale farmers? 29 April 2016 / John C. Cannon As palm oil expands in Africa, researchers say more smallholders should be brought into the fold. https://news.mongabay.com/2016/04/palm-oil-cameroon-blessing-curse-small-scale-farmers-2/

Wilmar scoops up small ICE May delivery in 5th straight purchase May 2, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sugar-ice-delivery-idUSKCN0XU01Q

FGV needs three years to recertify 58 palm oil mills under RSPO May 5, 2016 Ronnie Teo http://www.theborneopost.com/2016/05/05/fgv-needs-three-years-to-recertify-58-palm-oil-mills-under-rspo/

How effective will Indonesia’s palm oil permit freeze really be? 4 May 2016 / Mongabay Haze Beat Observers question the extent to which the newly declared moratorium, which also applies to mining licenses, can actually be enforced. https://news.mongabay.com/2016/05/effective-will-indonesias-palm-oil-permit-freeze-really/

Golden Veroleum Dedicates Mini Oil Palm Mill in Sinoe County --  It is a joy for us to celebrate with the government and our partner communities as we dedicate our mill,” said Rothschild. The GVL Director says a similar project will be replicated in Grand Kru, stating that today is the mini mill; in 2017 GVL will be commissioning its main mill, which is 15 times larger than the mini mill and is currently under construction in Tarjuowon, Sinoe County. ...Rothschild concluded by saying that the mini mill was constructed after Vice PresidentJoseph Boakai visited Indonesia and appealed for it, with the goal of not letting the palm spoil...http://www.frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/county-news/544-golden-veroleum-dedicates-mini-oil-palm-mill-in-sinoe-county

UNMIL Drawdown: Bassa Residents, Police Sweat Over Low Support http://www.frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/county-news/589-unmil-drawdown-bassa-residents-police-sweat-over-low-support

Bumitama Agri’s FFB yield plummets 24% to 3.1t/ha - Last year’s El Nino is still hurting output. 25 Apr 16 http://sbr.com.sg/agribusiness/news/bumitama-agri%E2%80%99s-ffb-yield-plummets-24-31tha#sthash.k0hF9i6l.dpuf


Sime Darby sees higher profit with new genome super palms BY P. ARUNA 5 April 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/04/25/sime-darby-sees-higher-profit-with-new-genome-super-palms/

Sime Darby eyes 15% better palm oil yield By Ahmad Naqib Idris / The Edge Financial Daily   | April 26, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/sime-darby-eyes-15-better-palm-oil-yield

11 Sime Darby Protestors Charged With Criminal Facilitation April 22, 2016 Cholo Brooks Liberia http://gnnliberia.com/2016/04/22/liberia-11-sime-darby-protestors-charged-criminal-facilitation/

Golden Agri-Resources reveals plan for 'fully traceable' palm oil by 2020, Madeleine Cuff 26 April 2016 http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2455972/golden-agri-resources-reveals-plan-for-fully-traceable-palm-oil-by-2020

Indonesia's Sinar Mas Agro expects 15 pct decline in 2016 output Apr 25, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/indonesia-palmoil-sinar-mas-agro-idUSJ9N16U01G

When palm oil companies get banned, are they willing to change? Blogpost by Kiki Taufik - 25 April, 2016  http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/indonesia-palm-oil-companies-banned-customers/blog/56280/


Media Release: FGV Expands Transportation Business in Sarawak 28 April 2016, http://www.feldaglobal.com/media-release-fgv-expands-transportation-business-in-sarawak/#sthash.tMNmGCXk.dpuf

Red flags for FGV's China venture By Yen Ne Foo / The Edge Malaysia   | April 12, 2016  http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/red-flags-fgvs-china-venture

Malaysian palm oil giant loses 7 more customers over RSPO suspension 11 April 2016 / Philip Jacobson -- Hershey’s, Yum! Brands and Johnson & Johnson are among the latest to defect. https://news.mongabay.com/2016/04/malaysian-palm-oil-giant-loses-7-cusotmers-rspo-suspension/


Unilever palm oil supplier must suspend all plantation expansion to save reputation - As buyers such as Unilever and Mars stop doing business with suspended Malaysian company IOI, will it lead to strong action or more weak promises? Kiki Taufik 9 April 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/apr/09/ioi-malaysian-palm-oil-company-unilever-mars-kellogg-rspo-deforestation


Equatorial Palm Oil Starts To Bear Fruit As It Plans On Building Mill  13th Apr 2016 http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=ttmxtwlv&headline=Equatorial_Palm_Oil_Starts_To_Bear_Fruit_As_It_Plans_On_Building_Mill

President Koroma Commissions The Largest Oil Mill In West Africa Built In Sahn Malen, Pujehun District By Socfin Agricultural Company pril 13, 2016 5:11 pm, Posted by Amadu Daramy -- President Dr. Ernest Bai Koroma on Saturday 9th April formally commissioned the largest palm oil production mill built by Socfin Agricultural Company in Sahn Malen Chiefdom, Pujehun District....the Socfin palm oil farm is not just the largest in the country, but also in West Africa, and that the company has invested over US$130 Million, planting 12, 319 hectre of hybrid oil palm trees and building a mill currently with a 30t/hr of Fresh Fruit Bunch capacity and with capacity to increase to 60t/hr.... company has employed over 2,460 seasonal workers to support plantation operations plus 1,091 permanent workers all totaling 3,551 workers, and most of these workers he said are from the surrounding communities within the company’s operational areas.... http://www.globaltimes-sl.com/president-koroma-commissions-the-largest-oil-mill-in-west-africa-built-in-sahn-malen-pujehun-district-by-socfin-agricultural-company/

FGV aborts plan to buy 55% stake in Zhong Ling BY M. HAFIDZ MAHPAR 9 April 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/04/09/fgv-aborts-plan-to-buy-55-stake-in-zhong-ling/

Top firms 'supplied with illegal palm oil' APR 15, 2016 -- Study: Fruit grown in conservation areas being sent to local mills supplying the firms...The study by Eyes on the Forest (EoF), a coalition of Indonesian non-governmental organisations, underscores the complexity of tracing all sources of palm oil. The findings also challenge the zero-deforestation commitments of leading palm oil firms.... http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/top-firms-supplied-with-illegal-palm-oil  

Sime Darby Destruction Scare Investors, As Local Authorities Call On Gov’t To Remove Illegal Squatters April 12, 2016 Cholo Brooks Liberia -- Recent action on the part of some residents of Grand Cape Mount and Bomi Counties to  burn down major parts of the Sime Darby Plantation in the area destroying several parts of the plantation on an report that a lady was missing from the hospital of the company is reportedly scaring investors. For their part, local authorities of Bomi County told reporters on Monday   that the arson attack on Sime Darby Plantation is a threat to the economy and the investment climate as a whole. http://gnnliberia.com/2016/04/12/15823/

Margarine producer fined R35m for anticompetitive behaviour BY FIFI PETERS ,  14 APRIL 2016 -- ON top of the R35m fine margarine producer Sime Darby Hudson Knight has to pay for anticompetitive behaviour, the company may also face being monitored to ensure that it complies with further remedial action handed down to it for contravening the competition act.... Sime Darby Hudson Knight makes and sells bakery fats and frying oils. In 2014, the Competition Commission raided its Boksburg offices as well as those of Durban-based Unilever during its investigations into restrictive price behaviour in the industry. It found that Sime Darby Hudson Knight had entered into an agreement that precluded it from supplying certain pack sizes of edible fats and oils to a number of customer channels. The agreement meant that it could not supply retail outlets, and other areas where Unilever was active.... As part of the Commission’s remedial action, which includes the R35m fine, Sime Darby Hudson Knight agreed to supply the retail sector with its products and to build a new warehousing facility to accommodate this..... http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/retail/2016/04/14/margarine-producer-fined-r35m-for-anticompetitive-behaviour 


Rain forest advocacy group installs 15-foot banner on LIC Pepsi-Cola sign to protest palm oil  By Angela Matua  / amatua@qns.com  / Monday, April 25, 2016 http://qns.com/story/2016/04/25/rain-forest-advocacy-group-installs-15-foot-banner-on-lic-pepsi-cola-sign-to-protest-palm-oil/

BREAKING: Protesters Scale Iconic NYC Pepsi Sign to drop 100’ “Cut Conflict Palm Oil” Banner by JESSICA SERRANTE http://www.ran.org/pepsi_sign_banner_drop

BRIEF-Indonesian instant noodle firm Indofood Q1 profit up 25 pct  Apr 28, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL3N17U4UU

Palm oil industry fumes as Indonesia gets tough on forest fires  JAKARTA | BY BERNADETTE CHRISTINA MUNTHE AND FERGUS JENSEN Apr 21, 2016 -- The president's suggestion of doubling Indonesian palm growers' productivity is easier said than done," said Togar Sitanggang, corporate affairs manager at Musim Mas, one of Indonesia's biggest palm oil producers. "The problem with productivity has been there for years," he said, adding it was also unclear who would pay for the right seeds. "There is no budget for this."  Big players, such as PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources, Astra Agro Lestari, Wilmar International, may be able to raise output on their current holdings, but it will be tough for smallholders to do so, industry sources said. That could lead to layoffs as the harder-hit smallholders, which account for 40 percent of Indonesia's output, are forced to sell land to bigger firms looking to expand, they said. 
"Our reputation as the biggest palm oil producer will be history," said Eddy Martono, an official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-palmoil-idUSKCN0XI2XE

Indonesia`s planned moratorium on oil palm concessions lauded 21 April 2016 -- Jakarta (ANTARA News) - President Joko Widodos announcement last week about a plan to impose a moratorium on new permits for oil palm plantations has been lauded by some parties, particularly NGOs. The moratorium policy is aimed at preserving Indonesias tropical rain forest, the worlds third largest after forests in Amazon and Congo.  The deforestation rate in the country, however, is very fast since land is being converted, particularly for plantation, and also due to forest fires. "There will be a moratorium on oil palm and mining," the head of state, popularly known as Jokowi, stated at the launch of a National Movement for Plants and Wild Animals protection in conjunction with the World Forest Day, in Karya Island of Thousand Islands, Jakarta, on April 14. The president said entrepreneurs and small business holders will not be allowed to expand land for oil palm concessions.... http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/104307/indonesias-planned-moratorium-on-oil-palm-concessions-lauded 

Indonesia March palm oil output set to fall for seventh month By Fransiska Nangoy and Bernadette Christina Munthe, Reuters on Apr 19, 2016 http://www.agweek.com/news/nation-and-world/4012855-indonesia-march-palm-oil-output-set-fall-seventh-month

Wilmar International says it recognises issues raised in Indonesia NGO alliance report on illegal palm oil APR 15, 2016 -- Singapore-based Wilmar International has said that it recognises the challenges raised in an investigation by an Indonesian green coalition that found palm oil from illegal plantations in Sumatra had tainted the global supply chains of Wilmar and four other top palm oil companies. Wilmar is the top global player in the palm oil sector, producing and trading almost half the world's palm oil. http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/wilmar-international-says-it-recognises-issues-raised-in-indonesia-ngo-alliance-report

Australia - Wilmar and growers start talks on 2017 cane supply agreement  21 April 2016 https://www.agra-net.com/agra/international-sugar-and-sweetener-report/sugar-news/cane-sugar/australia---wilmar-and-growers-start-talks-on-2017-cane-supply-agreement--1.htm

Wong & Partners, ZICOlaw star in Sime Darby’s 3 billion ringgit sukuk offering By Eileen Ang|  Apr 20, 2016 http://www.legalbusinessonline.com/deals/wong-partners-zicolaw-star-sime-darby%E2%80%99s-3-billion-ringgit-sukuk-offering/72138

Grim forecast for paper giant’s wood supply raises deforestation fears 22 April 2016 / Jonathan Vit -- Asia Pulp & Paper has promised to stop cutting forests, but a massive new mill has green groups concerned the conglomerate will default on its commitment. https://news.mongabay.com/2016/04/grim-forecast-paper-giants-wood-supply-sumatra-raises-deforestation-fears/

NGOs and oil-palm growers team up to help orangutans, but progress is slow 21 April 2016 / Melati Kaye Impatient with industry-wide efforts, some NGOs are working directly with companies to protect orangutans on oil-palm plantations in Borneo, concession by concession. https://news.mongabay.com/2016/04/ngos-oil-palm-growers-team-help-orangutans-progress-slow/

Indonesia to probe palm producers' environmental pledge: competition watchdog JAKARTA | BY BERNADETTE CHRISTINA MUNTHE April 14, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-palmoil-probe-idUSKCN0XB1BG


25 April 2016: Astra Agro rights issue and the deflation-debt context, MP Evans strategy, Indonesia debt outlook 

Editor's note: A bigger corporate news update pending

Astra Agro launches rights issue to cut dollar debts by Anton HermansyahAnton Hermansyah April 12 2016 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/04/12/astra-agro-launches-rights-issue-to-cut-dollar-debts.html

As profits retreat, Astra Agro halts dividends by Anton HermansyahAnton Hermansyah April 11 2016 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/04/11/as-profits-retreat-astra-agro-halts-dividends.html


Bloomberg - palm oil's debt and deflation context

  • Palm Oil's Bad Rap Gets Worse By Andy Mukherjee and David Fickling. Mar 2, 2016 ... Palm oil, that ubiquitous liquid found in everything from shampoo and soap to lipstick, noodles and bread, is hoping for bad weather. But a supply squeeze alone won't be enough to deliver it from the twin problems of debt and deflation. ... Following a downgrade by Standard & Poor's last week, Moody's on Tuesday cut its rating on Malaysian planter Sime Darby by one notch, and warned of further action if the company fails to deleverage. Sime Darby, which is still struggling to digest its 2014 debt-financed acquisition of a palm-oil cultivator in Papua New Guinea, saw operating income from plantations dwindle to $34 million last quarter, a fraction of what the business used to make before the global commodities rout....Sime Darby is hardly alone. Palm-oil profits have collapsed amid heightened global scrutiny of the industry's environmental impact. Indonesia's Astra Agro Lestari now earns a return on capital of a little more than 5 percent, compared with almost 30 percent in 2012. Malaysian planter and refiner IOI Corp. has net debt that's more than three times Ebitda, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A significant amount of its borrowings are denominated in U.S. dollars and S&P says liabilities will rise further this year as IOI acquires capacity in Europe to turn palm oil into ingredients used in food, cosmetics and personal care..... Bad weather can at best be a short-term palliative for palm oil, but believing it can also be a cure for lackluster demand, price deflation and elevated debt is wishful thinking.... http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-03-02/palm-oil-s-bad-rap-gets-worse
  • IOI Oleochemicals Buys Oleochemical Operations of German Firm  21/09/2015, Corporate Communications ... IOI Oleochemical Industries Berhad (“IOI Oleo”) is pleased to announce that its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, Alstersee 217. V V GmbH (to be renamed as IOI Oleo GmbH in the future) has reached a conditional asset purchase agreement with Cremer Oleo GmbH & Co KG to acquire Cremer Oleo’s entire oleochemicals manufacturing business in Germany for €89.4 million or RM433.3 million on 9 September 2015.... https://www.ioigroup.com/Content/NEWS/NewsroomDetails?intNewsID=740


MP Evans could regret corralling its interests solely in palm oil by Kate Burgess April 24, 2016... Longevity might not bring sagacity for veteran company moving away from diversification... When the Queen was a girl, MP Evans was one of about 300-or-so plantation businesses in London. They made up as much as a tenth of the UK stock market.... Now MP Evans, headquartered in Tunbridge Wells, Kent, home to serried ranks of elephant feet umbrella stands, is almost the last one left. Surviving this long is no mean feat. MP Evans has had to transform along the way from a rubber and tea broker into a palm oil and beef agri-conglomerate....Last week, the UK company’s shares jumped 26p to 440p on talk of a £220m sale of North Australian Pastoral Company, the Aussie cattle group in which MP Evans owns 34 per cent. It would mark MP Evans exit from beef. Last year Peter Hadsley-Chaplin, chairman and son of a former chairman, sold a 31,000 hectare cattle-fattening station in Queensland, using the proceeds to pay down debt and expand palm oil acreage in Indonesia.....The board has made clear that cash from selling NAPco would go the same way. It wants to turn MP Evans from a smallish palm oil producer with about 42,000 hectares into one that can compete against the likes of Sime Darby, which has about 600,000 hectares....High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2fdcd070-07dc-11e6-a623-b84d06a39ec2.html#ixzz46nRvKKyF

Recently Convicted Bank Swindler Commits Suicide - A banker in Medan, North Sumatra who was recently convicted of banking crimes was found dead in his home on Wednesday (20/04) just a day before he was scheduled to be transferred to prison. By : Arnold H Sianturi | on April 21, 2016...  Darul, the former marketing business group head of the Medan branch of Bank BNI, was found guilty of costing the bank Rp 129 billion ($10 million) when he approved a loan filed by a palm oil businessman using fake collateral. The businessman, Boy Hermansyah, disappeared with the money. Boy is now on the run from police.... http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/news/recently-convicted-bank-swindler-commits-suicide/

Indonesia's Warped Debt Mirror By Andy Mukherjee Apr 18, 2016.. .Creditors are receiving ugly haircuts in Indonesia's debt salon.Now that the nation's China-fueled commodity boom has gone bust, Indonesia's legal system is busy running a sharp razor across what was once a luxuriant crop of collateral: Standard Chartered's claim on a $1 billion loan to mining tycoon Samin Tan was recently thrown out by a local court on the grounds that a foreign advance against a coal mine -- a national asset -- was illegal. AVERAGE ONE-YEAR DEFAULT RISK OF JUNK-RATED COMPANIES IN INDONESIA0.87%.... But as bad as the reflection in the mirror may be, leading to spurious comparisons with the aftermath of the 1997 Asian crisis, the present situation is very different in one key respect: The nation's currency isn't in free fall. That's provided a cushion to share prices and ensured the default risk of Indonesia's publicly traded companies is receding faster than counterparts in several other emerging markets... The risk that these Indonesian firms won't be able to meet their obligations is also down by about a third from the highest point this year. Few other large emerging markets have seen such a steep improvement in credit quality.... Things could take a turn for the worse if the Federal Reserve presses on with interest-rate increases, putting the rupiah under renewed pressure and making it difficult for Indonesian borrowers to refinance their dollar-denominated debt.Corporate stress could also intensify if coal prices remain subdued, a nascent recovery in palm-oil prices proves short-lived, or President Joko Widodo's much-vaunted infrastructure push proves a dud. Among large Indonesian debtors, highway operator's Jasa Marga's creditworthiness has worsened this year, Bloomberg data show....For now, though, the rewards from monetary easing outweigh the risks. Bank Indonesia cut interest rates every month in the first quarter of this year. The central bank will adopt a new policy-rate benchmark in August, effectively pruning borrowing costs by as much as 100 basis points, according to Natixis. http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-04-18/indonesia-s-warped-debt-mirror

Top Southeast Asian Bond House Sees `Robust' Deal Pipeline by Chanyaporn Chanjaroen  Pooi Koon Chong  April 15, 2016... Malayan Banking Bhd., Malaysia’s top lender, is anticipating bond sales driven by big Southeast Asian infrastructure projects to offset a downturn in fees from sluggish regional equity markets.... The biggest deal Maybank handled this year was a 2.2 billion ringgit ($565 billion) perpetual sukuk for palm-oil producer Sime Darby Bhd., for which the bank is the sole principal adviser, lead arranger and manager, it said in a March 24 statement. Islamic bonds, or sukuk, are debt instruments that comply with Shariah law, which prohibits the payment of interest.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-15/top-southeast-asian-bond-house-sees-deals-offsetting-equity-drop


29 Mar 2016: Zakaria Arshad appointed new CEO of FGV 

Zakaria Arshad appointed new CEO of FGV 29 March 2016 | MYT 1:09 PM; ...Zakaria, a son of a settler from FELDA Palong 1, Negeri Sembilan, has served FELDA Group for the past 32 years since 1984 including FELDA Rubber Industries Sdn Bhd, Malaysia Cocoa Manufacturing Sdn Bhd, FELDA Rubber Products Sdn Bhd and FELDA Marketing Services Sdn Bhd. “On behalf of FGV Group, we would like to thank Emir for his invaluable contribution especially on charting the transformation framework to pave the way for FGV to be an important global powerhouse today,” Isa said.... http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/29/zakaria-arshad-appointed-new-ceo-of-fgv/

15 Mar 2016:  FGV now says it is deliberating on change of CEO, one of two China deals held up?

Editor's note: Last major news review was done 22 Feb 2016. 

FGV now says it is deliberating on change of CEO By Meena Lakshana / theedgemarkets.com   | March 14, 2016 KUALA LUMPUR (March 14): In an about turn, Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) said it is now deliberating on the change of its chief executive officer (CEO), which is currently held by Datuk Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah. "The board of FGV will deliberate on the appointment/change of FGV CEO and will make the requisite announcement immediately upon the receipt of the nomination letter from the relevant authority," it said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia today. FGV had on Friday issued a statement, saying Emir will continue to serve as its CEO and president, after local media reported that he may be replaced next month.....In a separate filing with Bursa, FGV said the terms and conditions of its two sale and purchase agreements (SPA 1 and SPA 2) regarding the proposed acquisition of a 55% stake in Zhong Ling Nutril-Oil Holdings Ltd for RM976.25 million were made at "arm's length and in the ordinary course of commercial negotiations"... FGV noted that however, the application to one of the regulators was cancelled pending more information on the investment from the group. "To date, no subsequent application has been submitted to the said regulator," it said. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/node/265325?google_editors_picks=true


RM618,000 to defend 1MDB and Red-Shirt rally, says Salleh BY MARTIN CARVALHO, LOSHANA K SHAGAR, NICHOLAS CHENG, andD. KANYAKUMARI; THE Government spent RM618,000 to print books to defend criticisms against 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) and the Red-Shirt rally. Communications and Multimedia Minister Datuk Dr Salleh Said Keruak, in a written reply to Teo Kok Seong (DAP-Rasah), said the books were published to “present facts” in light of the highly-politicised climate surrounding both the state sovereign fund and the racially-charged gathering. A total of RM606,250 was used to print 125,000 copies of 1MDB: Siapa Kata Tidak Dijawab in Malay (100,000 copies), Tamil (15,000) and English (10,000), he added. Dr Salleh Said said the Department of Special Affairs also printed 2,000 Red-Shirt Rally books costing RM12,000.http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/03/15/rm618000-to-defend-1mdb-and-redshirt-rally-says-salleh/
Note: Felda settlers were reported to be significant participants in the Red Shirt Rally. Journalists also reported that many rally goers were bussed in and were not aware of the purpose of their trip to KL.

Alert form a reader: An FGV mill has been suspended by the RSPO based on the WSJ and subsequent NGO complaints on alleged migrant labour issues - 7th March 2016 - RSPO Complaints Panel reviewed the independent assessment reports and decided to suspend Pasoh palm oil mill owned by Felda until full clearence is given based on the re-audits: http://www.rspo.org/members/complaints/status-of-complaints/view/85


22 Feb 2016: CIMB on Wilmar results briefing - concerns over its unwinding of carry trade proved unfounded, Indonesia biodiesel benefits its tropical oils division, Wilmar and First Resources are key beneficiaries in biodiesel. IOI downstream EBIT drops - AmBank.

Editor's note: Please review CIMB and AmBank reports. Addition of plantation subsidy sham article 14 Feb.

Subsidy sham: Fertilizers reach Indonesia plantations, not small farmers by SUKOHARJO/JAKARTA, INDONESIA | BY RANDY FABI AND BERNADETTE CHRISTINA MUNTHE Feb 14, 2016; Millions of dollars worth of subsidized fertilizers meant for small Indonesian farmers are being sold to big plantations, such as palm oil and rubber, at huge profits by state-backed retailers, a government report viewed by Reuters shows.... According to the yet-to-be-published government report, parts of which were seen by Reuters, as much as 30 percent of subsidized fertilizers were misallocated in some areas of Indonesia last year. Investigators with the ombudsman found subsidized fertilizer being sold at as high as 2,500 rupiah ($0.1854) per kg in 2015, around 40 percent above the state-set price but below the non-subsidized 4,200 rupiah that plantations must pay.... "The kiosks are selling fertilizer to plantations and not to the small farmers," said an investigator, who declined to be named as the report, based on data from five key rice-growing districts on three different islands, had not been finalised.... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-fertilizers-idUSKCN0VN127 


Wilmar International CIMB 21 Feb 2016: Key takeaways from results briefing
The key takeaways from Wilmar’s results briefing are: (1) concerns over its unwinding of carry trade proved unfounded; (2) rice and flour businesses in China have turned profitable; (3) higher biodiesel consumption in Indonesia will benefit its tropical oils division; (4) no plans to venture into property in the immediate term; and (5) keen on M&A at the right price.... Oilseeds and grains post strong profits. Tropical oils earnings slumped to its lowest since 2007. Final core net profit 3-4% above due to higher oilseeds and grain earnings....


IOI Corporation CIMB 21 Feb 2016 - Plantation and derivatives gains boost 2Q, 1H core net profit above, making up 64% of our and 58% of consensus’ full-year. Better performance due to higher plantation and fair value gain on derivatives....

Indonesia makes progress in biodiesel usage CIMB 21 Feb 2016 - This is positive for CPO prices, and we estimate the CPO Fund could support up to  3.19m kls of biodiesel in 2016, higher than the usage of 863,000 kls in 2015. Wilmar and First Resources are key beneficiaries of Indonesia’s biodiesel program.


IOI CORPORATION (IOI MK,IOI.KL) by AmBank 22 February 2016: Benefited from fair value gains on derivatives; ... Excluding the fair value changes of RM256.4mil in 2QFY16, IOI’s manufacturing EBIT would have plunged by 40.9%
QoQ to RM112.2mil in 2QFY16... IOI said that the oleochemical and specialty fats units in the manufacturing division suffered lower operating margins. IOI also opined that the outlook for the refining sub-segment is challenging as refining margins have turned negative. We believe that this is due to the competition from the refiners in Indonesia, which benefited from the imposition of the export levy in July 2015.



20 Feb 2016:  Major news review done. Wilmar net profit suffer weak palm oil performance, RAM lowers Golden Agri's RM5b debt note rating, Felda settlers' bauxite problem


Editor's note: News review pre-Christmas to 17 Feb completed in that segment. And below is this week's news alerts on plantation corporation.

Wilmar's sales volume rises but earnings fall 18 February 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/18/wilmars-sales-volume-rises-but-earnings-fall/

Wilmar reports slump in Q4 profit Net earnings falls 16% due to weak commodity prices, despite sales growth by Chong Koh Ping FEB 19, 2016  http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wilmar-reports-slump-in-q4-profit

Wilmar 2015 Net Profit Falls To 8-Year Low on Weak Palm Oil Performance  19 Feb 2016 http://www.foodingredientsfirst.com/news/Wilmar-2015-Net-Profit-Falls-To-8-Year-Low-on-Weak-Palm-Oil-Performance.html?frompage=index&tracking=Headlines

RAM lowers Golden Agri unit’s RM5b debt note rating  17 February 2016; .....the rating for Golden Assets International Finance Ltd’s IMTN programme of up to RM5bil (2012/2027) was lowered from AA3(s) to A1(s). RAM Ratings also retained the negative outlook on the rating. Golden Assets is a funding conduit owned by GAR. “The downgrade is premised on the continued deterioration of 
Golden Agri’s credit metrics as a result of softer crude palm oil (CPO) prices and elevated debt levels,” it said. ....  http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/17/ram-lowers-golden-agri-unit-rm5b-debt-note-rating/

KL Kepong Q1 earnings surge to nearly RM800m 17 February 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/17/kl-kepong-q1-earnings-surge-to-nearly-rm800m/

IOI is expected to return to the black By Maybank IB Research / The Edge Financial Daily   | February 15, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/ioi-expected-return-black

SGX: Year-to-Date Highlights Of Singapore's Biggest Consumer Plays Date 16/02/2016; Among Singapore’s 30 largest capitalised consumer plays, the 15 Consumer Discretionary Stocks averaged a 5.7% decline, while the 15 Consumer Staple stocks averaged a 3.5% decline. Among the 15 Consumer Staple stocks, Agriculture Products performed the strongest in the year-to-date, with Wilmar International, Golden Agri-Resources, First Resources and Bumitama Agri all gaining, averaging a 4.3% total return. CPO prices have gained 5.0% since end-2015 vs. the Thomson Reuters CRB Agriculture Producers Index declining 9.3%.  http://www.mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/sgx-year-to-date-highlights-of-singapores-biggest-consumer-plays/

Tabung Haji mum on claims it lost nearly RM1b from Felda Global Ventures investment February 17, 2016 - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/tabung-haji-mum-on-claims-it-lost-nearly-rm1b-from-felda-global-ventures-in#sthash.BcCBBT1W.dpuf

Felda fails to cite PKR lawyer, settler for contempt of court 19 February 2016 - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/felda-fails-to-cite-pkr-lawyer-settler-for-contempt-of-court#sthash.tV1nsu0v.dpuf

Bleak future for oil palm settlers due to bauxite mining 17 February 2016; Oil palm plantations at Felda Bukit Goh, Bukit Kuantan, Bukit Sago and Bukit Nerang face a bleak future following the mining of bauxite in those areas because turning oil palm plantations into bauxite mining areas affects the soil. An environmentalist said bauxite mining in the area produces chromium, which is poisonous and could damage oil palm trees in the aforementioned Felda areas... Maketab expressed concern over Felda settlers who bargained their land for the promise of a quick buck. "Those who sell their land, do reap rewards amounting to millions of Ringgit from bauxite businessmen ... the money will not last for generations to come. "Many have lost their lands and been cheated off their money by bauxite businessmen, the money promised by illegal bauxite miners to the settlers is gone for good and their plantation is at a great loss," said the former Malaysian Nature Society (MNS) president. http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1695486

Felda to decide on settler aid after bauxite moratorium ends  Bernama   19 Feb 2016 https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/331021

17 Feb 2016: News review in progress - Sime cutting debt load, Sime bond ratings, IOI Corp, Felda's Indonesian deal, Wilmar-Singapore GLC JVs, Australia minister "gets a dressing down" by Singapore exec over Queensland sugar tussle


Editor's note: This news review is broadly grouped by company news and goes back several weeks. News review pre-Christmas to 17 Feb completed.

Bunge Plunges After Profit Disappoints Amid `Tough' Markets by Shruti Singh  February 12, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-11/bunge-plunges-after-earnings-disappoint-amid-tough-markets

Sime Darby

Malaysia’s Sime Darby May Sell $500 Million in Real-Estate Assets- Conglomerate is seeking to cut its debt load By YANTOULTRA NGUI in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and P.R. VENKAT in Singapore Feb. 16, 2016 http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysias-sime-darby-may-sell-500-million-in-real-estate-assets-1455613787


MARC assigns initial rating to Sime Darby’s sukuk scheme 11 February 2016 Malaysian Rating Corporation Bhd (MARC) has assigned a preliminary rating of AAIS to Sime Darby Bhd's Perpetual Subordinated Sukuk Programme of up to RM3 billion. It also affirmed the ratings of MARC-1ID/AAAID on the existing RM4.5 billion Islamic Medium-Term Note (IMTN) Programme and RM500 million Islamic Commercial Paper/Islamic Medium-Term Note (ICP/IMTN) Programme with a combined limit of RM4.5 billion. In a statement, the rating agency said the company's rating outlook for the Perpetual Sukuk was negative, consistent with the revised outlook on the ICP/IMTN to negative from stable. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/marc-assigns-initial-rating-to-sime-darbys-sukuk-scheme#sthash.LToAlBye.dpuf

Sime's RM3bil perpetual bond issue depends on its standalone rating BY P. ARUNA 12 February 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/12/the-deal-in-simes-bond/

Sime Darby’s RM3b sukuk assigned AA-IS rating, negative outlook By Danial Idraki / theedgemarkets.com   | February 11, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/sime-darby%E2%80%99s-rm3b-sukuk-assigned-aa-rating-negative-outlook

Selling off 50% stake in liquid terminal unit in China KUALA LUMPUR (NewsRise) February 2, 2016-- Sime Darby, the world's largest palm oil producer by acreage, said it is selling half of its stake in wholly-owned Chinese liquid terminal unit for 60.85 million yuan ($9.25 million) to Hong Kong's Dragon Crown Group Holdings. The proposed sale will allow Sime Darby to partner Dragon Crown, which specializes in storage and handling of liquid chemical products, to jointly manage the Weifang Liquid Terminal in Shandong province of China, the company said in an exchange filing...http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Selling-off-50-stake-in-liquid-terminal-unit-in-China

Sime HK to sell 50% equity in Weifang Sime Darby 30 January 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/01/30/sime-hk-to-sell-50-equity-in-weifang-sime-darby/

Sime Darby set to be major rubber producer, plans to develop 100,000ha of rubber estates in Malaysia, Indonesia and Liberia by Cholo Brooks on Tue, 01/19/2016 http://www.gnnliberia.com/articles/2016/01/19/sime-darby-set-be-major-rubber-producer-plans-develop-100000ha-rubber-estates

Scrutiny on Sime Darby’s rating BY AFIQ ISA 16 January 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/01/16/scrutiny-on-sime-darbys-rating/


Sime set to be major rubber producer BY HANIM ADNAN 19 January 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/01/19/sime-set-to-be-major-rubber-producer/

UPDATE 1-Sime Darby says dry weather could lower palm oil output Jan 13, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-sime-drby-idUSL3N14X41O20160113

Wahab is no longer Sime Darby COO By Supriya Surendran / The Edge Financial Daily   | January 12, 2016  KUALA LUMPUR: Tan Sri Dr Abd Wahab Maskan, 65, has ceased to be the chief operating officer (COO) of Sime Darby Bhd, with effect from Dec 31, 2015, due to his health and medical condition. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/wahab-no-longer-sime-darby-coo


30 workers flee fire at food oil processing factory DEC 20, 2015 SINGAPORE - Thirty workers fled a fire at a food oil processing factory at Jalan Boon Lay on Sunday afternoon. The blaze at Sime Darby Edible Products Limited involved an unused storage tank measuring about 10m in diameter and 2m in height, according to the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF) http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/30-workers-flee-fire-at-food-oil-processing-factory


Felda / FGV

FGV on expansion mode BY AFIQ ISA 13 February 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/13/fgv-on-expansion-mode/

Felda: From humble agency to conglomerate BY ZAIDI ISHAM ISMAIL - 14 JANUARY 2016 Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/01/122057/felda-humble-agency-conglomerate

FGV upbeat on 2016 prospects BY GOH THEAN HOWE - 4 JANUARY 2016 Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/01/120420/fgv-upbeat-2016-prospects

Malaysia's Felda to re-attempt Indonesian deal with unlisted unit -sources By Eveline Danubrata and Emily Chow Feb 11, 2016 * Earlier Felda plan to buy $680 mln stake was heavily criticised * Felda to now use unlisted unit to acquire the stake -sources * Felda now seeking to cut price by as much as 30 pct -sources... http://www.reuters.com/article/indonesia-sondakh-idUSL3N15I090

FGV, Felda close to getting 30% discount for Eagle High By Jose Barrock / The Edge Malaysia   | February 8, 2016; This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on January 25 - 31, 2016.   PUBLIC-listed Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) and its parent, the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda), are understood to be close to securing a 30% discount to the initial price tag of US$680 million http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/fgv-felda-close-getting-30-discount-eagle-high 

Indonesia's Eagle High offers 15% discount to Malaysia's FGV BY LEONG HUNG YEE 1 February 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/01/discount-on-eagle-high-discount-on-eagle-high/

TPPA good for Felda, better returns for settlers by  Bernama  4 Feb 2016 Isa, who is also Member of Parliament for Jempol, said Felda would not be affected by the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and the interests of its settlers were guaranteed. https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/329455


No income, ruined land as Felda settlers count cost of bauxite ban BY YASMIN RAMLAN AND DIYANA IBRAHIM 25 January 2016 - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/no-income-ruined-land-as-felda-settlers-count-cost-of-bauxite-ban#sthash.CgVZ20rl.dpuf

New FGV-Eagle High deal talks to conclude by March 20 January 2016 - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/new-fgv-eagle-high-deal-talks-to-conclude-by-march#sthash.GM9TXNyN.dpuf


Felda Investment set for further expansion 16 January 2016 - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/felda-investment-set-for-further-expansion#sthash.AAr6oxQg.dpuf

Felda settlers in Sabah receive titles after 20-year wait January 16, 2016 - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/felda-settlers-in-sabah-receive-titles-after-20-year-wait#sthash.tvGvxZ33.dpuf


Anti-bauxite group offers legal service to cheated settlers BY MUZLIZA MUSTAFA  16 January 2016 - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/anti-bauxite-group-offers-legal-service-to-cheated-settlers#sthash.UNEEMS5a.dpuf


Felda schemes a legacy of Tun Razak January 13, 2016 - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/felda-schemes-a-legacy-of-tun-razak#sthash.XUMI96mu.dpuf

Miners threaten violence BY QISHIN TARIQ 11 January 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/01/11/miners-threaten-violence-contractors-also-offer-money-to-felda-settlers-but-shortchange-them-instead/

Bukit Goh settlers back bauxite mining ban 14 January 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/01/14/bukit-goh-settlers-back-bauxite-mining-ban/

Researcher: Long-term exposure to bauxite dust can lead to Alzheimer  6 January 2016 http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/01/06/researcher-long-term-exposure-to-bauxite-dust-can-lead-to-alzheimer/




Wilmar

Yuan Merchants By Andy Mukherjee Jan 12, 2016 The most daringly notorious commodity merchant in history raised an army, waged wars, plundered at will, sold opium to China, gave spectacular returns to shareholders, caused at least 30 European banks to collapse and was itself bailed out by taxpayers.Thankfully, today's commodity traders are nothing like the East India Company. But even these businesses have ways of making and losing money that occasionally show a fleeting glimpse of that buccaneering spirit..... Take Wilmar International, whose shares have tumbled more than 50 percent since early 2012..... analyst Nirgunan Tiruchelvam rates the stock a sell and has a target price about 35 percent lower than its current market value. He says half of the palm-oil and soybean trader's net profit in the first nine months of 2015 came from finance income, which was at least in part driven by investing low-cost U.S. dollar funds into high-yielding Chinese currency. That carry trade, which has got nothing to do with commodities, is now unwinding, thanks to a wobbly yuan exchange rate. Meanwhile, the company has almost $5 billion in outstanding bonds and loans that it has to repay or refinance by the end of 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A Wilmar spokeswoman said it's inaccurate to characterize the company's exposure to yuan as a carry trade.... Chalk it up to serendipity then, but isn't it nice to have billions of dollars in debt and yet be able to post positive net interest income? That, however, is what financiers do. The whole point of buying shares in a commodity trader is not to replicate the returns from an investment bank, but to acquire claims on a less risky earnings stream than what one could hope to get from a miner, oil explorer or cultivator. During a downturn, a Wilmar, Noble Group or Olam -- all three of which are listed in Singapore -- ought  o be able to demonstrate they can effectively hedge against a rout in raw-material prices.Yet that's not what the records show. Their aggregate earnings volatility over the past five years is hardly any different from the jumpiness in global mining companies' profit.... http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-01-12/yuan-merchants

Wilmar eyes top spot in sugar trading 15 January 2016 https://www.agra-net.com/agra/international-sugar-and-sweetener-report/features/wilmar-eyes-top-spot-in-sugar-trading-503467.htm

JV with Wilmar signals SATS’ take-off beyond Singapore’s shores: analysts, 05 Feb 16; It’s heading towards China. While being relatively small, analysts said SATS’ 60-40 joint venture with Wilmar is the first step as the airline services firm continues to broaden its focus outside of Singapore. According to analysts from UOB Kay Hian, the JV has scope for expansion, as it would be able to tap onto SATS & BRF’s favourable reputations as premier food producer and distributor, while tapping onto Wilmar’s retail distribution network in China. - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/aviation/more-news/jv-wilmar-signals-sats%E2%80%99-take-off-beyond-singapore%E2%80%99s-shores-analysts#sthash.7JvDuT72.dpuf

Wilmar enters into JV with Singapore Food Industries to supply food in China By Amy Tan / theedgemarkets.com   | January 22, 2016  SINGAPORE (Jan 22): Wilmar International’s unit, Yihai Kerry Investments, has entered into two conditional joint venture agreements (JVAs) with Singapore Food Industries (SFI) to supply food to the China market. SFI is a unit of ground-handling and in-flight catering service provider SATS. Yihai a...http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/wilmar-enters-jv-singapore-food-industries-supply-food-china

Adani Wilmar launches Fortune VIVO by Neha Tyagi, ET Bureau Feb 1, 2016, MUMBAI: Adani Wilmar, manufacturer and distributor of cooking oils, launched India's first diabetes care oil by the name Fortune VIVO on Monday. Targeted at the growing health conscious community of the country, the cooking oil helps in controlling type II diabetes and reduces and maintains blood sugar levels. Along with diabetes, the oil is also effective in reducing high blood pressure, hyperglycemia and hypercholesterolemia http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2016-02-01/news/70252380_1_cooking-oil-type-ii-diabetes-india-today

Are Wilmar, IndoAgri about to benefit from a tightening supply of sugar? By Michelle Teo / theedgemarkets.com   | February 5, 2016 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/are-wilmar-indoagri-about-benefit-tightening-supply-sugar

Trade minister criticised over Queensland sugar regulation Feb 9 2016; Trade Minister Andrew Robb has been warned that Australia has damaged its reputation as an investment destination following a decision by the Queensland Parliament to effectively re-regulate the nation's $2 billion sugar industry. Sources told The Australian Financial Review that during a recent trade mission to Singapore, Mr Robb was given a dressing down by an executive from Singapore-based agribusiness giant, Wilmar International, which operates eight sugar mills in Queensland. On the sidelines of an investment meeting to drum up business for Australia, Mr Robb was told the sugar decision had raised concerns about the volatility of protectionist domestic politics and had harmed Australia's reputation as an investment location..... Wilmar, along with other international sugar millers with operations in Queensland, is stepping up efforts to reverse the legislation which was passed in December by the Queensland Liberal-National Party Opposition with the support of independents. The Thai-based Mitr Phol has four mills and China's COFCO has one mill. .... http://www.afr.com/news/politics/trade-minister-criticised-over-queensland-sugar-regulation-20160208-gmp11n#ixzz40NuWguY7 

Wilmar wins Federal Court challenge against Queensland Sugar Limited as marketing dispute continues QLD Country Hour By David Sparkes 1 Feb 2016; Sugar milling company Wilmar has won a Federal Court battle against Queensland Sugar Limited, the industry-owned company that markets 85 per cent of the nation's raw sugar. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-01/federal-court-finds-in-favour-of-wilmar-in-case-against-qsl/7130138


Cane growers anxious over wait for contracts by Lucy Smith | 5th Feb 2016; CANEGROWERS Queensland chairman Paul Schembri says some Mackay growers are "anxiously" waiting to sign next year's contracts with milling company Wilmar. Mr Schembri said the delay was due to Wilmar's opposition to the Sugar Industry (Real Choice in Marketing) Amendment Act, which passed through State Parliament in December. "Normally growers would have certainty two or three years ahead that contracts are in place," Mr Schembri said. "In this circumstance there is nothing in place for 2017. The clock is up and running, and for the growers, they need some certainty." Mr Schembri said Wilmar should "respect" the sugar bill, which gave cane growers more say in sugar marketing. "Queensland growers will not be bullied by companies who want to impose their marketing will on farmers," he said.... http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/cane-growers-anxious-over-wait-for-contracts/2921526/

Landry seeks update on a ‘sugar war’ 4th Feb 2016; Ms Landry met with Canegrowers Australia CEO Dan Galligan and Chairman Paul Schembri for an update of the plight of local sugar growers and their battle against Singapore giant Wilmar. The issue is over sugar marketing and contract issues. "I am behind local farmers who employ local people and support our local towns and communities like Sarina and Mackay," Ms Landry said. "I am informed that Wilmar's behavior and treatment of local Mum and Dad cane growers is a disgrace. While foreign investment is important to Australia, it should not be allowed as a bullying tactic against growers....  http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/landry-seeks-update-sugar-war/2920818/

Aurizon signs sugar haulage contract with Wilmar 20th Jan 2016  http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/aurizon-signs-sugar-haulage-contract-wilmar/2904787/

Aurizon signs sugar and molasses haulage contract with Wilmar By FoodProcessing Staff  21 January, 2016 http://www.foodprocessing.com.au/content/materials-handling-storage-and-supply-chain/news/aurizon-signs-sugar-and-molasses-haulage-contract-with-wilmar-1153949939

The No Deforestation Revolution: Two Years In  01/21/2016  Glenn Hurowitz Senior Fellow, Center for International Policy http://www.huffingtonpost.com/glenn-hurowitz/the-no-deforestation-revo_b_9040314.html


Policy Implementation Progress Reports; In December 2013, Wilmar announced its integrated No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation Policy that aims to advance an environmentally and socially responsible palm oil industry. We provide quarterly updates during the first year of implementation and welcome feedback from stakeholders... http://www.wilmar-international.com/library/csr-resources/policy-implementation-progress-reports/

Wilmar's zero-deforestation update gets mixed reviews - The world's biggest palm oil company has issued a two-year update on its zero deforestation efforts, with progress on traceability, engaging suppliers to adopt better practices, and greater transparency. But more needs to be done, say green groups. By Vaidehi Shah, 25 January 2016 http://www.eco-business.com/news/wilmars-zero-deforestation-update-gets-mixed-reviews/

World's largest palm oil trader criticised for lack of progress on deforestation - Wilmar claims it has made ‘significant progress’ but campaigners and experts say more is needed to prevent forest clearance or human rights abuses.  Villagers shrouded by haze on the Indonesian island of Sumatra.  Supported by: RSPO. By Tess Riley 26 January 2016  http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/jan/26/worlds-largest-palm-oil-trader-criticised-progress-deforestation-wilmar

Global Palm Oil Giant Wilmar International Misses Deadline To Cut Conflict Palm Oil January 21, 2016 http://www.ran.org/global_palm_oil_giant_wilmar_international_misses_deadline_to_cut_conflict_palm_oil

Agravis 'secures supply' in palm expellers through stake in Wilmar subsidiary By Jane Byrne, 25-Jan-2016 German agribusiness cooperative, Agravis, has bought a 33% shareholding in a German palm products and animal feed trading house. http://www.feednavigator.com/Markets/Agravis-secures-supply-in-palm-expellers-through-stake-in-Wilmar-subsidiary

Delta Wilmar plans expansion in B2C segment 25.01.2016 According to Mr. Dhruba Charan Panda, chairman of the board of "Delta Wilmar CIS", Wilmar company plans further expansion in Ukraine. http://www.blackseagrain.net/novosti/delta-wilmar-plans-expansion-in-b2c-segment

Adani Wilmar looks to gain with grain post success with oil by V RISHI KUMAR Indo-Singaporean JV scouting for rice mills in south India ... http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/adani-wilmar-looks-to-gain-with-grain-post-success-with-oil/article8152191.ece

Germany's Agravis buys stake in palm product trader from Wilmar Jan 14, 2016 German agricultural commodities cooperative Agravis said on Thursday it had bought a 33 percent shareholding in German palm products and animal feed trading house H. Boegel from Singapore-listed commodities group Wilmar International Ltd. The move will give Agravis direct access to purchase markets for palm-based animal feed ingredients including palm expellers, Agravis said. Wilmar had said in September it was considering selling part of Boegel http://www.reuters.com/article/wilmar-ma-agravis-idUSL8N14Y26P20160114

Zimbabwe - Wilmar seeks $7,6m to recapitalise Olivine Jan 13 2016, http://www.herald.co.zw/wilmar-seeks-76m-to-recapitalise-olivine/

Wilmar seeks $7.6m bailout for Olivine 13 Jan 2016 http://www.chronicle.co.zw/wilmar-seeks-7-6m-bailout-for-olivine/


OLIVINE INVESTOR FAILS TO STUMP UP $32M 7th January 2016; SINGAPORE-headquartered agribusiness group, Wilmar International, which last year completed the takeover of a 49 percent shareholding in fast-moving consumer goods  group, Olivine Industries, has failed to recapitalise the company, the Financial Gazette’s Companies & Markets (C&M) can reveal.  Wilmar was expected to inject US$32 million into Olivine to capitalise the business but reliable sources this week told C&M that the company “had completely failed to inject fresh capital into the company and gone quiet.  http://www.thezimbabwedaily.com/news/47050-olivine-investor-fails-to-stump-up-32m.html

Wilmar new CPO policy effective next month BY HANIM ADNAN 5 December 2015; Oil palm planters in Sarawak are bracing themselves for the impact of Wilmar International Ltd’s new crude palm oil (CPO) sourcing policy, which is expected to take effect early next month. Wilmar is the largest CPO buyer in Sarawak, purchasing almost 50% of the state’s total CPO production or about 3.3 million tonnes annually for its palm oil refinery in Bintulu....  On Dec 5, 2013, the agribusiness group had declared a “no deforestation, no peat, no exploitation” policy to take effect in 2016, whereby Wilmar would only source CPO from sustainable oil palm plantations.... The policy created discontent among Sarawak oil palm planters, particularly those who were heavily involved in cultivating oil palm in high carbon stock forests, high conservation areas and peat land. Close to 42% or 504,000ha of the state’s total 1.2 millon ha of oil palm plantations are planted on peat soil. http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/12/25/wilmar-new-cpo-policy-effective-next-month/

Brazil - Wilmar, Raízen to form sugar venture to rival Cargill tie-up 04 January 2016 10:08 AM; Raízen Energia SA and Wilmar International Ltd plan to establish a sugar venture in Brazil to rival the partnership between Cargill and Copersucar, the nation's leading exporter this year. https://www.agra-net.com/agra/international-sugar-and-sweetener-report/sugar-news/cane-sugar/brazil---wilmar-raizen-to-form-sugar-venture-to-rival-cargill-tie-up--1.htm

Brazil watchdog reviewing proposed Raizen-Wilmar venture 25 December 2015 http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1647215

Brazil antitrust watchdog reviews proposed Raizen, Wilmar tie-up Dec 23, 2015 http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N14C0L420151223

Wilmar, Raizen plan joint venture to be Brazil's top sugar exporter DEC 24, 2015 http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wilmar-raizen-plan-joint-venture-to-be-brazils-top-sugar-exporter

Wilmar plans Brazil tie-up to rival sugar-export giant DEC 25, 2015 http://www.straitstimes.com/business/wilmar-plans-brazil-tie-up-to-rival-sugar-export-giant



Others

Golden Agri's performance over coming quarters likely sluggish: BMI Research By PC Lee / theedgemarkets.com   | January 28, 2016 SINGAPORE (Jan 28): Golden Agri’s performance in the coming quarters will likely remain sluggish as palm oil production is tipped to be slow or even register negative growth. Meanwhile, downstream operations will continue to be hurt by lingering overcapacity, and the outlook for the company's oils... http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/golden-agris-performance-over-coming-quarters-likely-sluggish-bmi-research

Four bring Golden-Agri arm's $300m to syndication 8 Jan 2016 http://www.globalcapital.com/article/vz6p83nqjp7l/four-bring-golden-agri-arms-$300m-to-syndication
IOI Corp set for earnings rebound 12 February 2016 | MYT 11:31 AM; “The rebound in earnings will be underpinned by reversal in forex losses and stronger downstream contributions. This sector bellwether is the best proxy for an El Nino trade in first half of 2016... Operationally, IOI’s plantation division recorded a weaker second quarter to Dec 31, 2015 fresh fruit bunches (FFB) output of 934,811 tonne mainly due to below-average rainfall experienced in Sabah in first half of 2015. ... “As for downstream, we expect an EBIT of RM180mil due to the absence of RM203mil fair valuation loss on derivative financial instruments recorded in first quarter of financial year ending June 30, 2016. And it is possible that part of the 1QFY16 losses could be reversed in 2QFY16 to further boost earnings,” Maybank said. ..  IOI Corp’s re-inclusion into the Shariah compliant list in end-Nov 2015 had helped generated fresh interest.  ..http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/12/ioi-corp-set-for-earnings-rebound/

Bumitama Agri to snap up 95% stake in GHL for $7.91m 04 Feb 16; It’s trying to bag a 2,982 ha oil palm plantation. Bumitama Agri is getting ready to nab 95% stake in Gunajaya Harapan Lestari (GHL), which has a 2,982 ha oil palm plantation in Ketapang, West Kalimantan. The acquisition is worth IDR76.96m, or about $7.91m, and will be funded by Bumitama’s internal resources. - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/agribusiness/more-news/bumitama-agri-snap-95-stake-in-ghl-791m#sthash.2GhBmghb.dpuf


RAM Ratings reaffirms Bumitama's AA3/Stable rating Jan 06 2016 https://www.zawya.com/story/RAM_Ratings_reaffirms_Bumitamas_AA3Stable_rating-ZAWYA20160106151644/



Salim Group - Indonesian food group enters Malaysia poultry sector via CAB deal by CK TAN, Nikkei staff writer January 18, 2016; KUALA LUMPUR -- Indonesian food conglomerate Salim Group has agreed to invest 31 million ringgit ($7 million) in CAB Cakaran, a Malaysian poultry company that is on an expansion kick. In a stock exchange filing Monday, CAB said KMP, the Singapore-based investment arm of Salim, will subscribe to a planned private placement of new shares equivalent to 10% of CAB's total share capital. KMP will pay 2.07 ringgit per share, which represents a premium of nearly 26% over the weighted weekly average share price through Jan. 15. The deal is expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2016.... http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Indonesian-food-group-enters-Malaysia-poultry-sector-via-CAB-deal

Indofood Sukses Makmur Mulls Joint Venture With Japanese Firm Indofood Sukses Makmur is the world's largest manufacturer of instant noodles. (GA Photo/Mohammad Defrizal) By : Farid Firdaus | on 1:26 PM December 31, 2015 http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/corporate-news/indofood-sukses-makmur-mulls-joint-venture-japanese-firm/


The Wilmar of rubber? By Goola Warden / theedgemarkets.com   | January 29, 2016 Halcyon Agri has been aggressively expanding since its IPO nearly three years ago and could now be on the cusp of its biggest deal yet. Here’s what investors need to know about the brash company. Robert Meyer, executive chairman and CEO of Halcyon Agri Corp, has big ambitions for his company. “.. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/wilmar-rubber


Jaya Tiasa set to see positive cash flow 5 January 2016; “We continue to believe it would be able to produce at full-fledge a tonnage of 1.5 million tonnes annually.” AmResearch understands that sustained efforts are being carried out to rehabilitate 10,000ha of planted areas that had been neglected previously. This could take more than a year. Jaya Tiasa will discontinue planting on its remaining plantation landbank representing 0.4% of its estimated plantable area of 69,873ha, after December 2015, and has given its commitment to comply with Wilmar’s Integrated Policy....http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1655840


Jaya Tiasa stops planting oil palm on remaining land By AmInvestment Bank Bhd / The Edge Financial Daily   | January 5, 2016  http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/jaya-tiasa-stops-planting-oil-palm-remaining-land


19 December 2015: Wilmar eyeing some property projects after naming new COO (non-commodity / property expert), investors worry about FGV even if it buys less than 10% in Eagle High, FGV eyes biodegradable plastics from palm oil waste

Wilmar eyeing some property projects after naming new COO - Perennial Real Estate CEO's appointment to post will give commodity giant an advantage by Wong Wei Han, Dec 15, 2015; At first glance, it looks an odd fit, but commodity giant Wilmar International believes appointing the boss of a property firm to run its operations will reap a double payoff. As well as gaining a tried-and-tested businessman, Wilmar believes naming Perennial Real Estate chief executive Pua Seck Guan as its chief operating officer and an executive director will give it a way to take part in property development projects.... "In many places where Wilmar has significant operations, we have been offered attractive projects by the local government, which we declined as we do not have expertise in property development. "With the association with Perennial through Mr Pua, these projects can be undertaken by Perennial, with Wilmar maybe taking a small stake. Successful development of these projects will enhance Wilmar's relationship with the  government and standing of the company in those places." Perennial has a portfolio of properties developed or managed in Singapore, China, Malaysia and Ghana....http://www.straitstimes.com/business/wilmar-eyeing-some-property-projects-after-naming-new-coo

Wilmar falls after announcing management changes   By PC Lee / theedgemarkets.com   | December 14, 2015  http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/wilmar-falls-after-announcing-management-changes

CIMB expresses caution even if FGV buys less than 10% in Eagle High by sharidan m. ali  15 December 2015 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/12/15/cimb-expresses-caution-even-if-fgv-buys-less-than-10-in-eagle-high/?style=biz

FGV to produce biodegradable plastics from palm oil waste 15 December 2015 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/12/15/fgv-to-produce-biodegradable-plastics-from-palm-oil-waste/?style=biz

 

14 December 2015: Eagle High still trying to find deal within Felda / FGV group, The Edge Malaysia reports FIC says no; new Wilmar COO 1 Jan 2016


Note: Some chatter about new Wilmar COO starting 1 Jan 2016 (see 12 Dec posting immediately below).

The Edge Malaysia reports Felda Investment Cooperative as saying "no" to Eagle High stake, front page of current issue.

Deal trail and issues, include

12 December 2015: ADM-Wilmar boost Olenex Europe JV, Wilmar in FOE spotlight, Felda Group to buy 37 pct of Eagle High in new deal, Sime Darby and others to test oil palm production scheme, Sime’s plan to reduce RM19.7bil debt, GVL prepares for processing, CBIP mill deals



Perennial Real Estate CEO to become COO at Wilmar - Mr Pua Seck Guan will become COO and executive director at Wilmar with effect from Jan 1, 2016. He will also retain his positions in Perennial. Posted 11 Dec 2015 http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/perennial-real-estate-ceo/2339208.html

Pua Seck Guan of Perennial doubles up as COO of Wilmar   By Tay Hock Meng / The Edge Property, Perennial Real Estate Holdings Ltd | December 11, 2015; Perennial Real Estate Holdings Limited CEO and executive director (ED) Pua Seck Guan has been appointed the new COO and executive director of Wilmar International Ltd with effect from January 1, 2016. Pua will retain his current positions at Perennial. Wilmar’s current COO and ED, Teo Kim Yong, will be retiring on December 31....http://www.theedgeproperty.com.sg/content/pua-seck-guan-perennial-doubles-coo-wilmar

Replaces: Mr Teo Kim Yong, 61, is in charge of the Group’s commercial activities, merchandising of palm and lauric oils, as well as the manufacturing, palm and biodiesel trading operations..... http://www.wilmar-international.com/who-we-are/board-of-directors/


ADM, Wilmar strengthen joint venture  12/10/2015; Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) and Wilmar International Limited announced on Dec. 10 that they have entered into an agreement whereby Olenex, their partnership to market oils and fats in Europe, will become a full-function joint venture with its own assets.  As part of the agreement, ADM will transfer two sites — a specialty oils and fats facility and a palm refining plant in Hamburg, Germany — to the new joint venture. Wilmar will transfer its tropical oils processing plants in Brake, Germany and Rotterdam, Netherlands. In addition to processing, the joint venture will also integrate raw materials sourcing, trading, and sales and marketing operations. The agreement also stipulates that refined oils and fats from ADM’s other plants in the Czech Republic, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and the U.K. will be marketed by Olenex. ...http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2015/12/ADM_Wilmar_strengthen_joint_ve.aspx?ID=%7BAE30A875-7EFE-40D6-8E1E-1C9F2D94A3F8%7D&cck=1
 
 
Up in Smoke: Failures in Wilmar’s promise to clean up the palm oil business, 8 December 2015 http://www.foeeurope.org/up-in-smoke-failures-Wilmar%E2%80%99s-promise-clean-up-palm-oil-business

Archer Daniels Midland spent $20 mln to raise Wilmar stake -filing Nov 4, 2015 http://www.reuters.com/article/adm-wilmar-filing-idUSL1N12Z2U120151104

Australia - Wilmar signs interim deal for 0.5 mln t of cane for 2017 season Published: 27 November 2015 .. Australia's largest sugar producer - Wilmar - says securing an interim agreement with 22 individual growers is a "breakthrough" to the current impasse about how export sugar is marketed, reports ABC Rural. .. https://www.agra-net.com/agra/international-sugar-and-sweetener-report/sugar-news/cane-sugar/australia---wilmar-signs-interim-deal-for-0.5-mln-t-of-cane-for-2017-season--1.htm

Sugar and grain industries say new ethanol legislation is a big win By David Sparkes  3 Dec 2015 Queensland Energy and Water Minister Mark Bailey on a tour the Wilmar Bioethanol facility in Sarina Photo: Queensland Energy Minister Mark Bailey (centre) visited the Wilmar Bioethanol plant earlier this year to discuss a possible mandate. (David Sparkes)  Australia's biggest sugar milling company, Wilmar, says new legislation boosts the chances of bioethanol becoming a major contributor to the state's economy. The legislation passed through Queensland Parliament last night and sets a mandated level of 3 per cent ethanol in the state's petrol and 0.5 per cent in diesel from January 1, 2017. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-02/industry-players-wlecome-passing-of-bioethanol-bill/6993620

Wilmar stuck in an ROE rut: Jefferies   By PC Lee / theedgemarkets.com   | November 18, 2015  SINGAPORE (Nov 18): Agricultural trader Wilmar International ( Valuation: 2.00, Fundamental: 0.80) looks stuck in a trading range until it can improve its return on equity any further, Jefferies says in a note soon after the firm reported quarterly earnings. Jefferies notes that Wilmar's management emphasised achievements in scale, dist.. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/wilmar-stuck-roe-rut-Jefferies


Sime’s plan to reduce RM19.7bil debt; may monetise assets, place out shares  by s.puspadevi 27 November 2015 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/11/27/simes-debt-plan/?style=biz

Felda Group to buy 37 pct of Eagle High in new deal-Rajawali exec By Cindy Silviana Dec 11, 2015  * Eagle High shares soar 8 pct after Rajawali comments * Most of purchase likely via different Felda unit -Rajawali * Felda Global may take less than 10 pct -Rajawali * Felda Global says still evaluating possible new deal (Adds comment from Felda Global Ventures, share price) JAKARTA, Dec 11 Malaysia's Felda Group still plans to buy 37 percent of PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk in a restructured deal, a managing director of the Indonesian firm's parent company said, sending shares in Eagle High soaring. The companies are finalising the price, Rajawali's managing director Darjoto Setyawan told Reuters in a text message interview. Read more at Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/felda-glo-vntrs-eagle-high-plnt-ma-idUSL3N14023820151211#SeA8p6J3iTZRoeAp.99

Felda Global explains why it cannot do Indonesian Eagle deal alone by afiq isa 7 December 2015...FGV chief executive officer Datuk Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah had recently told StarBiz that all options were being considered to revive the deal.  The 37% stake in Eagle High is held by the Rajawali Group, a conglomerate controlled by Indonesian tycoon Tan Sri Peter Sondakh.

Minister settles defamation suit against PAS, Mustafa Ali and Harakahdaily by Bernama | Published on December 08, 2015; The suit was in relation to a defamatory statement by former PAS vice-president Datuk Husam Musa against Mustapa, who is Kelantan UMNO Liaison committee chairman on the shares of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Berhad (FGVH).
The suit was settled after the four defendants in the case tendered their apologies ... http://english.astroawani.com/malaysia-news/minister-settles-defamation-suit-against-pas-mustafa-ali-and-harakahdaily-84322

Felda Global completes sale of Canadian unit for RM567mil  by p. aruna 4 November 2015... KUALA LUMPUR: Felda Global Ventures (FGV) Holdings Bhd has completed the sale of its loss-making Canadian subsidiary, and received the cash purchase price of C$172.7mil (RM567.1mil). The subsidiary, Twin Rivers Technologies Entreprises De Transformation De Graines Oléagineuses Du Québec Inc (TRT-ETGO) was sold to Canadian grain and oilseeds marketer and handler, Viterra Inc as part of FGV’s five-year transformation strategy. ...  http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/11/04/fgv-completes-sale-of-canadian-unit-for-rm567mil/?style=biz
 
 
Plantation giant Felda Global Ventures records pre-tax loss with higher revenue KUALA LUMPUR, NOV 26, 2015 http://www.therakyatpost.com/business/2015/11/26/plantation-giant-felda-global-ventures-records-pre-tax-loss-with-higher-revenue/

GVL prepares for processing 08 December 2015 http://www.thenewdawnliberia.com/news/9015-gvl-prepares-for-processing

Indonesian conglomerate in poultry tie-up with Malaysia's CAB by WATARU SUZUKI, Nikkei staff writer JAKARTA -- Indonesian conglomerate Salim Group is partnering with Malaysia's CAB Cakaran to set up an integrated poultry business in Indonesia. http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Indonesian-conglomerate-in-poultry-tie-up-with-Malaysia-s-CAB

Sime Darby to test oil palm production scheme Published: 11 December 2015 5:04 PM Major oil palm growers, including Sime Darby Bhd will conduct trials of a sustainable cultivation scheme under the Sustainable Palm Oil Manifesto - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/sime-darby-to-test-oil-palm-production-scheme#sthash.mnvIYveQ.dpuf

How Sime Darby & Oil Palm production will help Liberia’s Economy - By Richard Sambulah Submitted by Cholo Brooks on Mon, 11/23/2015  http://www.gnnliberia.com/articles/2015/11/23/how-sime-darby-oil-palm-production-will-help-liberia%E2%80%99s-economy-richard-sambulah

Sime Darby appoints former Indonesian minister as director  24 November 2015 http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/11/24/sime-darby-appoints-former-indonesian-minister-as-director/?style=biz

Sime Darby to expand rubber plantation despite weak price November 23, 2015 http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/To-expand-rubber-plantation-despite-weak-price


Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: Giant Force in Indonesia's Consumer Goods Market 18 November 2015 |  Despite weakening purchasing power in an economy that has lost its growth momentum since 2011, Indonesia's largest packaged-food company Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur contains a number of advantages that are believed to lift the company's profit figures. Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur is a subsidiary of Indofood Sukses Makmur, a leading total food solutions firm in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The Indofood Group is known as the world's largest instant noodles producer. http://www.indonesia-investments.com/news/todays-headlines/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-giant-force-in-indonesia-s-consumer-goods-market/item6187
 
IOI Corp slips into the red in 1Q due to forex loss   By Yimie Yong / theedgemarkets.com   | November 16, 2015 KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 16): IOI Corp Bhd ( Valuation: 0.30, Fundamental: 0.35) plunged into the red for the first financial quarter ended Sept 30, 2015 (1QFY16) primarily due to foreign exchange (forex) loss of RM853.9 million on translation of its US dollar-denominated borrowings. The group posted a net loss of RM719 million or 11.38 sen lo... http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/ioi-corp-slips-red-1q-due-forex-loss
  
First Resources posts 26.4% fall in 3Q earnings to $45 mil   By PC Lee / theedgemarkets.com   | November 13, 2015 SINGAPORE (Nov 13): Palm oil producer First Resources ( Valuation: 0.90, Fundamental: 2.60) posted a 26.4% fall in 3Q earnings to US$31.7 million ($45 million) from $43.1 million a year ago. The weaker bottom line was dragged down by a 24.6% decline in profit from operations to US$54.1 million mainly due to the effects of lower palm oil... http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/first-resources-posts-264-fall-3q-earnings-45-mil

Bumitama Agri’s 3Q earnings fall 30%   By Trinity Chua / theedgemarkets.com   | November 12, 2015 SINGAPORE (Nov 12): Indonesian palm oil company Bumitama Agri’s 3Q ( Valuation: 0.90, Fundamental: 1.15) earnings fell 30% to 199.8 billion rupiah ($0.021 billion) on the back of higher cost of sales, increased expenses and a decline in selling prices for crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel. Revenue dropped 13.7% to 1,179 billion rup http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article/bumitama-agri%E2%80%99s-3q-earnings-fall-30


Wilmar posts 35% fall in Q3 profit to $392.5m - In the tropical oils business, pre-tax profit fell 45.9 per cent to $149.5 million. This was because of declining crude palm oil prices and lower margins from the refining and downstream businesses, Wilmar said. In the tropical oils business, pre-tax profit fell 45.9 per cent to $149.5 million. This was because of declining crude palm oil prices and lower margins from the refining and downstream businesses, Wilmar said.PHOTO: REUTERS Nov 12, 2015 http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wilmar-posts-35-fall-in-q3-profit-to-3925m

Asia's big three commodity traders reveal profit pain by Huileng Tan 13 Nov 2015; Asia's big three commodity trading houses were hit in the third quarter by a slump in raw materials prices that hammered profits and revenues. Reporting results this week, Noble Group, Olam International and Wilmar International - collectively known as the NOW group - highlighted a trio of challenging market conditions this year: Volatility in raw material prices, currency fluctuations and slumping investments.  On Thursday, Singapore-listed Noble reported an 84 percent on-year plunge in third-quarter profits to $24.7 million, mainly due to losses in its metals division and agricultural arm. Revenue was down 20 per cent to $18.7 billion.

Golden Agri-Resources Q3 profit jumps but El Nino looms Nov 12, 2015 4:30am EST  http://www.reuters.com/article/golden-agri-results-idUSL3N1372JA20151112#JuHUsCjpJhO1RlZH.99


How Felda mobilised 10,000 for ‘red shirt’ rally 11 Nov 2015  The total number of Felda settlers who joined the rally was estimated to be 10,000, according to the parliamentary reply, she said. This means that about 10,000 Felda settlers joined the red shirt rally, she surmised. Many of the settlers were transported to Kuala Lumpur in buses. About RM1mil spent ... government-backed Village Development and Security Committee (JKKR) and the Coalition of Women's Movement (GPW) for giving RM925,000 to fund the ‘Felda rally’. https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/319014

Indofood sees profit almost halved amid weakening rupiah The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Sat, October 31 2015, 5:05 PM - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/10/31/indofood-sees-profit-almost-halved-amid-weakening-rupiah.html#sthash.JWtPCzcD.dpuf

RAM Ratings reaffirms First Resources’ AA2/Stable Sukuk rating  01, November 2015 by Matthew Amlôt http://www.cpifinancial.net/news/post/33389/ram-ratings-reaffirms-first-resources-aa2-stable-sukuk-rating

Rating Action:  Moody's withdraws Golden Agri's Ba3 corporate family rating November 06, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has withdrawn the Ba3 corporate family rating of Golden Agri-Resources Ltd. The rating outlook was negative at the time of its withdrawal.  https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-withdraws-Golden-Agris-Ba3-corporate-family-rating--PR_338271

CB Industrial bags palm mill contract worth RM51m in Indonesia   By Gho Chee Yuan / theedgemarkets.com   | December 7, 2015 KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 7): CB Industrial Product Holding Bhd ( Valuation: 1.80, Fundamental: 3.00) has bagged a contract worth RM51.08 million from PT Ichtiar Gusti Pudi, a subsidiary of Ahmad Zaki Resources Bhd ( Valuation: 2.60, Fundamental: 0.60), to supply one continuous sterilisation palm oil mill with a capacity of 60 tonnes per hour. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/cb-industrial-bags-palm-mill-contract-worth-rm51m-Indonesia

CBIP wins RM60mil deal to supply another mill in PNG 4 December 2015 KUALA LUMPUR: CB Industrial Product Holding Bhd (CBIP) has secured a RM60mil contract from East New Britain Palm Oil Ltd’s subsidiary Glory Jade Investments Ltd to supply a continuous sterilisation palm oil mill for the client’s Papua New Guinea (PNG) operations. http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/12/04/cbip-wins-rm60mil-deal-to-supply-another-mill-in-png/?style=biz


IOI Corp sees lower oil palm FFB output, 28 October 2015 by Lee Weng Khuen PUTRAJAYA: IOI Corp Bhd has revised downwards its fresh fruit bunch (FFB) growth to between 3% and 5% for the financial year ending June 30, 2016 (FY16), from the initial forecast of 5% to 7%, due to the prolonged hazy weather. Speaking to reporters after the company’s AGM here yesterday, CEO Datuk Lee Yeow Chor said the hazy condition, which reduces sunlight hours, will probably affect up to 10% of total FFB. However, he said it will not have a negative impact on the company’s profitability as low production will boost palm oil prices... http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1595494

The tree whisperer  by tee lin say 24 October 2015; Lee, the executive chairman and founder of IOI Corp, is the single-largest shareholder of both IOI Corp and IOI Prop, controlling some 51% of both companies. IOI Prop was demerged from IOI Corp and relisted separately on Jan 15, 2014 with a market capitalisation of RM8.13bil, making it the second-largest property player after UEM Sunrise Bhd back then. Today, it is the second-biggest property developer listed on Bursa Malaysia after SP Setia Bhd with a market cap of RM8.36bil....IOI Corp is a fully integrated company that undertakes the plantation and resource-based manufacturing businesses. The plantation business covers Malaysia and Indonesia with a landbank of more than 230,000 ha, making it one of the largest plantation owners in the industry. IOI Group owns four palm oil refineries, three located in Malaysia and one in the Netherlands, with a combined annual refining capacity of 3,300,000 tonnes. http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/10/24/the-tree-whisperer/?style=biz

PepsiCo’s palm oil pledge should not exempt Indofood, NGOs say - The global food and beverage giant recently promised to source deforestation-free palm oil, but green groups say the commitment should apply to joint venture partners that sell its branded partners. That includes Indofood, Indonesia's largest food company. by Mongabay.com  29 October 2015 http://www.eco-business.com/news/pepsicos-palm-oil-pledge-should-not-exempt-indofood-ngos-say/

Indonesia's Indofood posts biggest 9-mth profit decline in decade on forex hit Oct 30, 2015 By Eveline Danubrata and Cindy Silviana * 9-mth profit 1.7 trillion rupiah vs 3.1 trillion a year ago * Net profit margin falls to 3.5 pct from 6.6 pct * Indofood has $1.2 bln in foreign currency debt * Plantation business hit by weak crude palm oil prices Read more at Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/indofood-sukses-results-idUSL3N12U2F920151030#fqGjTCeWwSYIHmto.99

SG’s First Resources buys out Indonesian plantation firm Karya Tama by Vincencia NLS October 26, 2015:   Singapore-based palm oil producer First Resources Limited has announced its indirect subsidiary PT Pancasurya Agrindo has acquired Indonesian plantation firm PT Karya Tama Bakti Mulia for a cash consideration of $1.4 million. The acquisition is being funded through internal accruals, the company said, in a filing to the stock exchange. Karya Tama is incorporated in Indonesia and principally engaged in the plantation business in the Riau province of Indonesia.... (First Resources) It manages over 190,000 hectares of oil palm plantations, including plasma plantations, and operates 12 palm oil mills across the Riau, East Kalimantan and West Kalimantan provinces of Indonesia. http://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/singapores-first-resources-buys-out-indonesian-plantation-firm-karya-tama-17018/

Smear campaign against Indonesian palm oil underway: GAPKI Thejakartapost.com, Jakarta | National | Mon, October 26 2015 - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/10/26/smear-campaign-against-indonesian-palm-oil-underway-gapki.html#sthash.na3QryPB.dpuf 

Rajawali's Eagle High says pledged assets to secure $201 mln bank loan Oct 19, 2015; PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk , the plantation unit of Indonesian conglomerate Rajawali Group, has secured a 2.74 trillion rupiah ($201 million) loan from PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk, an executive said on Tuesday. Eagle High Corporate Secretary Rudy Suhendra told Reuters by phone the loan will be used to refinance existing debt, make upcoming payments on bonds and build a new palm oil mill. Eagle High pledged some plantations as well as palm oil factories owned by its five subsidiaries as security for the loan, Suhendra said. In June, Malaysia's Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd said it will buy 37 percent of Eagle High from Rajawali for $680 million. http://www.reuters.com/article/eagle-high-loans-idUSL3N12K1ND20151020


Kedah Rubber City’s GDV estimated at RM11.2bil 23 October 2015; ... Emir added it was also encouraging to note that the Government continued to provide funds to enhance the Felda settlers livelihood, in terms of income and productivity. Among the initiatives provided are RM200mil to improve the standards for road in Felda settlements and construction of 20,000 residences for the second generation Felda settlers. Others include increasing the incentive of Rubber Production Incentive (IPG) from RM4.60 to RM5.50 per kg for SMR 20 Freight on Board Rubber and scrap rubber (cup lumps) will be increased from RM1.75 to RM2.20 per kg. “All relevant Budget 2016 initiatives will directly and indirectly contribute to FGV in promising and positive ways.  “The budget complements our five-year transformation plan that focuses on enhancing revenue, cost optimisation and operational excellence across all our businesses such as palm oil, rubber and sugar,” added Emir. - Bernama...http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/10/23/kedah-rubber-citys-gdv-estimated-at-rm11bil/?style=biz

Archived News (26/10/2015) : Olam International Signs MoU With FGV To Train Gabonese Farmers....  http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v8/ge/newsgeneral.php?id=1183513

29 October 2015: Olam secures $1B in new loans to refinance debt

 

Olam secures $1B in new loans to refinance debt by Neelabh Chaturvedi Tuesday, 27 Oct 2015 | 9:46 PM ET;...Agri-trader Olam International has secured $1 billion in funding to refinance existing debt, just a couple of months after Mitsubishi Corp snagged a 20 percent stake in the company. Olam said the new revolving credit and term loan facility will comprise an $850 million 364-day revolving credit facility and a $150 million 5-year term loan. Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings owns 51.4 percent of Olam....    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/27/olam-noble-rival-once-muddy-waters-target-refinances-with-1b-loans.html; (also see, Why Mitsubishi took a stake in troubled Olam - http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000412226)

10 October 2015: Golden-Agri suppliers and Indonesia forex hedging and foreign debt conversion, IPOP dilution for smallholder interests, FGV news, Wilmar deals and tax break, IOI oleochem buy, Moody's eyes China slowdown impacts and plantation sector credit quality weakening,  Eagle High gets new loan, Indonesia gives tax incentives to dairy and biodiesel, consumer slow down

 

More certainty for sale of majority stake in China Minzhong Food By Andrea CHINA Minzhong Holdings and PT Indofood Sukses Makmur have committed to continue to discuss and work towards the finalisation of the proposed acquisition by China Minzhong Holdings of a majority stake in China Minzhong Food Corporation. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/more-certainty-for-sale-of-majority-stake-in-china-minzhong-food

Felda Global gains 2.4% on renewed buying interest    By Surin Murugiah / theedgemarkets.com   | October 15, 2015 : 9:42 AM MYT     http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/felda-global-gains-24-renewed-buying-interest

Felda forays into student accommodation in London by Ismail Amsyar Mohd Said, Bernama    Published 14 Oct 2015, 4:27 pm     http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/315731
Giving back to society is 'right thing to do'- Palm oil giant Golden Agri-Resources funds schools, builds infrastructure and develops housing in the communities it operates.  By SUE-ANN CHIA http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub/ey-entrepreneur-of-the-year-2015/giving-back-to-society-is-right-thing-to-do

Give Shares Of Golden-Agri Resources A Pass  Oct. 9, 2015 3:09 PM ET   |  About: Golden Agri-Resources ADR (GARPY)   Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...) Summary • The relationship between revenue and net income is actually negative. • After a review of the cash flow statement, we believe the dividend is in danger of being cut.  http://seekingalpha.com/article/3562816-give-shares-of-golden-agri-resources-a-pass

MNC looking to invest $60.4m, set up shop in Iskandar Malaysia by Liz Lee October 12, 2015:  A multinational company specialising in the distribution of tropical vegetable oils and their derivatives, has expressed interest to invest MYR250 million ($60.36 million) in Iskandar Malaysia, according to the Johor Tourism, Domestic Trade and Consumerism committee. Committee chairman Tee Siew Kiong said the Europe-based company, with its head office in Singapore, plans to set up its operations in the Southern Economic Corridor in peninsular Malaysia. “The investment could be realised by this year or in the first quarter of next year,” he told a press conference after opening D’ Elegance Hotel in Taman Nusanatara last Friday. http://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/mnc-looking-to-invest-60-4m-set-up-shop-in-iskandar-malaysia-15324/

Indofood to hedge, convert foreign debts Anggi M. Lubis, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Sat, October 03 2015, 5:27 PM; Consumer goods giant PT Indofood Sukses Makmur plans to hedge and convert a sum of its foreign denominated loans later this year to comply with the central bank’s hedging regulation and to reduce financial costs. Indofood, one of the world’s largest noodle makers, has a total of US$1.2 billion in foreign-denominated loans, the company’s director Werianty Setiawan says.“None of the loans have been hedged. We will hedge at least 20 percent of our net exposure in the fourth quarter,” she said.“The hedging is to comply with BI’s [Bank Indonesia] regulation.”Late last year, BI introduced a new regulation requiring all Indonesian companies planning to borrow dollars to have a specific health level in three indicators: liquidity strength, hedging ratio and credit rating level.The rule came into effect in January 2015. Companies must hedge at least 20 percent of their short-term dollar debts and have a liquidity ratio of 50 percent. - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/10/03/indofood-

Golden Agri loses suppliers after IPOP implementation The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Tue, October 06 2015, 5:53 PM; Singapore-listed Golden Agri Resources (GAR) has said that it lost hundreds of thousands of tons of fresh fruit bunch (FFB) supplies as it suspended partnerships with several supplier companies due to the implementation of GAR’s non-deforestation policy.GAR sustainability and strategic stakeholder engagement managing director Agus Purnomo said in Jakarta on Monday that since May, the company had stopped buying FFB and crude palm oil (CPO) for its refineries from five to six companies allegedly conducting deforestation. However, he declined to reveal the value, saying it would be found in the company’s year-end financial report.“The impact of the decision to suspend the purchases was serious because it affected the company’s production,” he said.According to the company’s financial report published in August, GAR’s CPO output dipped by around 9 percent to 1.09 million tons in the first half of this year while its FFB production slipped by 3 percent to 4.58 million tons year-on-year. - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/10/06/golden-agri-loses-suppliers-after-ipop-implementation.html#sthash.RuiWkUZ6.dpuf

Big palm oil's pledge to preserve forests vexes Indonesia Wed Oct 7, 2015 7:47pm EDT  JAKARTA  |  By Michael Taylor  The Indonesian government is asking major palm oil companies to row back on the historic “no deforestation” pledges they made at last year’s United Nations climate change summit, officials and company sources say. Major palm oil companies were invited to a series of meetings at the economics ministry last week, where officials expressed concern the pledges the plantation companies made are causing big problems for smaller palm oil firms in their supply chain, the sources told Reuters. The government has asked palm oil firms who signed the Indonesian Palm Oil Pledge (IPOP) to exempt smallholders because they are not yet ready to practice the same level of sustainable forest practices as the big players, said Musdhalifah Machmud, deputy minister for food and agriculture at the coordinating ministry for economic affairs.  http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/07/us-indonesia-forests-insight-idUSKCN0S02SX20151007

Credit quality of Asian palm oil players weakens, says Moody’s Thursday, 8 October 2015; PETALING JAYA: The credit quality of Asian palm oil producers is weakening, as oversupply is muting crude palm oil (CPO) prices and hampering deleveraging efforts, said Moody’s Investors Service. The average CPO price fell more than 30% to RM2,191 per tonne in the second quarter of this year from the second quarter of 2012 and averaged RM2,067 per tonne in July-August. “We expect CPO prices to remain under pressure over the next 18 months, with vegetable oil markets oversupplied and soft demand,” said Alan Greene, Moody’s vice-president, senior credit officer and a lead analyst on Asian palm oil producers. He said in Moody’s latest edition of Inside ASEAN that lower prices had muted cash generation, reflected in the recent negative rating actions on palm oil companies Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (Ba3 negative), Sime Darby Bhd (A3 negative) and IOI Corp Bhd (Baa2 negative). Inside ASEAN also examined the impact of the recent currency depreciation of the Malaysian (A3 positive) ringgit and Indonesian (Baa3 stable) rupiah. The ringgit depreciation was a symptom of declining export revenues, capital outflows and worsening sentiment towards Malaysia. http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/10/08/Credit-quality-of-Asian-palm-oil-players-weakens-says-Moodys/?style=biz

Cashing In On the TPP By Benjamin Shepherd on October 8, 2015; The largest trade pack in modern history is a go. Negotiators from 12 Pacific Rim countries, including the U.S., announced earlier this week that they have reached a final agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The deal, which covers the trade between countries that account for roughly 40% of the global economy, will lower trade barriers and set rules governing more than $1 trillion of goods and services. Now, everything from milk to auto parts will move more easily around the countries bordering the Pacific Ocean....For instance, Mexican poultry producer Industrias Bachoco S.A.B de C.V. does a booming business in its home country and the U.S., with revenue nearly doubling over the past five years and earnings shooting up from $2.12 to $5.18. The company’s operations are still relatively modest compared to the Tyson Foods of the world, which has more than three times the market capitalization of Industrias Bachoco, so shipping its chicks beyond the U.S. and Mexico would be a challenge. But the TPP will implement a single set of rules across the Pacific region that will replace a regulatory maze of food safety rules. As a result, Industrias Bachoco (NYSE: IBA) can soon more easily reach nearly 500 million new customers across Asia. The benefits accrue in both directions though, so Singapore-based Wilmar International could see North American vistas opening to it. A top producer of palm oil, sugar, flour and other agricultural products, Wilmar’s (OTC: WLMIY) business is largely confined to Southeast Asia, China, Europe and Africa. While its products are more in demand in those regions, palm oil is a relatively common ingredient in food production and used in more than half of all packaged products we Americans consumer.  The palm trees that produce the oil are only grown in the tropics, so most of the oil we consume is produced by domestic companies. But now that the TPP will be leveling the agricultural field, Wilmar can compete in the Nort  American market more easily. And the timing really couldn’t be better since earlier this year the U.S. Food and Drug administration ordered food manufacturers to stop using artificial trans fats within three years, much of which will likely be replaced with palm oil. http://www.investingdaily.com/23742/cashing-in-on-the-tpp-2/

Indofood to hedge, convert foreign debts Anggi M. Lubis, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Sat, October 03 2015, 5:27 PM; Consumer goods giant PT Indofood Sukses Makmur plans to hedge and convert a sum of its foreign denominated loans later this year to comply with the central bank’s hedging regulation and to reduce financial costs. Indofood, one of the world’s largest noodle makers, has a total of US$1.2 billion in foreign-denominated loans, the company’s director Werianty Setiawan says.“None of the loans have been hedged. We will hedge at least 20 percent of our net exposure in the fourth quarter,” she said.“The hedging is to comply with BI’s [Bank Indonesia] regulation.”Late last year, BI introduced a new regulation requiring all Indonesian companies planning to borrow dollars to have a specific health level in three indicators: liquidity strength, hedging ratio and credit rating level.The rule came into effect in January 2015. Companies must hedge at least 20 percent of their short-term dollar debts and have a liquidity ratio of 50 percent…. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/10/03/indofood-hedge-convert-foreign-debts.html#sthash.UDvICWt9.dpuf

Sime Darby - Malaysia plantation shares suffer from low palm oil prices, supply glut September 29, 2015 8:05 pm JST; Shares of Sime Darby, the world's largest palm oil producer by acreage, have slipped 18% so far this year while state-run Felda Global Ventures has lost nearly a third of its value. That compares to the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI's 9.2% year-to-date decline.... http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Malaysia-plantation-shares-suffer-from-low-palm-oil-prices-supply-glut

Plantations lead market higher, FGV in focus Wednesday, 30 September 2015 By: JOSEPH CHIN; KUALA LUMPUR: The recent rally in crude palm oil (CPO) prices on worries about a decline in output due to the impending El Nino phenomenon by year end saw plantations topping the gainers list while Felda Global Ventures (FGV) was in focus. http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/09/30/Plantations-lead-market-higher-FGV-in-focus/?style=biz...

Indofood CBP Expects Slower Sales Growth Until Year-End By : Vanesha Manuturi | on 8:38 PM October 01, 2015; Jakarta. Sales at Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur, the world's largest instant noodle factory, is forecast to grow by 6 percent at most by the end of the year, showcasing a pessimistic view from the company for the remaining three months of the year.  "In the beginning of the year, we had hoped that sales would show double digit growth, however since the conditions are not conducive right now, it seems like full-year growth will be similar to the first half of the year, which is between 5 percent and 6 percent," Werianty Setiawan, a director at Indofood, told reporters in Jakarta on Thursday. Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur booked approximately Rp 1.7 trillion ($116 million) in net profit during the first half of the year, up 28 percent from about Rp 1.4 trillion in the same period last year. It recorded around Rp 17 trillion in sales during the first half of the year, up 6.6 percent from Rp 15.5 trillion in the revious year. Consumer goods companies, like Indofood CBP, have struggled to maintain sales growth in the past year as the nation faces a depreciated rupiah against the US dollar and its slowest economic pace since 2009, which has dampened consumer sentiment across the archipelago.... http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/indofood-cbp-expects-slower-sales-growth-year-end/

Indofood Agri Resources Mulls Plans for Three New CPO Plants By : Vanesha Manuturi | on 4:04 PM October 02, 2015; Jakarta. Singapore-listed Indofood Agri Resources, the agriculture arm of beverage and food giant Indofood Group, is planning to build up to three new crude palm oil factories next year through its subsidiaries, Salim Ivomas Pratama and London Sumatra, according to top executives at the company. Johnny Ponto, a director at publicly-listed Salim Ivomas Pratama, said that a majority of the palm fruits grown by Salim Ivomas Pratama are ready to be harvested and converted to crude palm oil in the next few years, which is why Salim Ivomas is planning to build two plants in East Kalimantan next year. "The factories will support our plantation estates... Hopefully, we can start [construction] by the end of the year or in the beginning of 2016, and complete it in 2017," Johnny said during a press conference in Jakarta on Thursday.  One of the factories will have the capacity to refine 40 tons to 80 tons of palm fruit per hour, he added.  Meanwhile, the second plant will have the capacity to process 40 tons of palm fruit per hour. Each is expected to cost Rp 200 billion ($13.6 million) in investment. Its subsidiary, London Sumatra, is also planning to add one CPO plant in East Kalimantan with a capacity to process 60 tons of palm fruit per hour, according to London Sumatra president director Benny Tjoeng. http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/indofood-agri-resources-mulls-plans-three-new-cpo-plants/

Danone, Kerry, Pulmuone also eyeing Quorn By Dean Best | 30 September 2015  http://www.just-food.com/news/danone-kerry-pulmuone-also-eyeing-quorn_id131226.aspx

UPDATE 2-Quorn fields takeover interest from range of parties -sources http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/29/quorn-ma-asia-idUSL5N11Z2VB20150929

Big Order Sweeps Sugar Market - Wilmar International Ltd. emerged as buyer of $346 million of sugar, traders and brokers say By Carolyn Cui and Julie Wernau  Sept. 30, 2015 5:35 p.m. ET  Wilmar International Ltd. has bought 1.2 million tons of raw sugar on the ICE Futures U.S. Exchange against the October contract, the third delivery taken by the Singapore-based commodity company in recent months, bringing the total of this year’s purchases to more than $1 billion, traders and brokers said. http://www.wsj.com/articles/big-order-sweeps-sugar-market-1443648939

Volac Increases Turnover in Volatile Dairy Market 30 Sep 2015 --- Dairy nutrition company Volac has published its financial results for the 10 month period ending December 2014. During this 10 month period, turnover increased 1% from €265m to €268m compared to the previous full financial year and profit before tax decreased 10% from €25m to €22m. http://www.foodingredientsfirst.com/News/Volac-Increases-Turnover-in-Volatile-Dairy-Market.html?section=Business%20News&tracking=All%20News&article_type=article

Malaysia's Felda Global says taking additional steps in Eagle High purchase KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 29  http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/29/malaysia-felda-eagle-high-plnt-idUSL3N11Z3ST20150929

MALAYSIA PRESS-Felda Global yet to pay deposit on Eagle High deal pending approvals-The Star http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/malaysia-press-felda-idUSL3N11Y11B20150928

BNM needs details on FGVH remittance  by Kavithah RakwanTuesday, September 29, 2015 http://themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/bnm-needs-details-fgvh-remittance

Immediate support for Felda Global at RM1.47, says AllianceDBS Research Published: 2 October 2015 12:03 PM - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/immediate-support-for-felda-global-at-rm1.47-says-alliancedbs-research#sthash.A5puptba.dpuf

Sime Darby voted best managed large cap in Malaysia By: LEON HUNG YEE  29 September 2015 http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/09/29/Sime-Darby-voted-best-managed-large-cap-in-Malaysia/?style=biz

LIBERIA: Bomi Superintendent Advises Sime Darby Company To Suspend Operations Submitted by Cholo Brooks on Sun, 09/27/2015 - 09:31  http://www.gnnliberia.com/articles/2015/09/27/liberia-bomi-superintendent-advises-sime-darby-company-suspend-operations

Analysts maintain ‘neutral’ on plantations following govt replanting scheme   By Sangeetha Amarthalingam / theedgemarkets.com   | September 28, 2015 : 12:14 PM MYT     KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 28): Research bank analysts have maintained a “neutral” call on the plantation sector following the government’s move to implement a RM100 million replanting scheme between Oct 1 and Dec 31. CIMB ( Valuation: 1.65, Fundamental: 1.05) analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang said there was no surprise because the bank had... http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/analysts-maintain-%E2%80%98neutral%E2%80%99-plantations-following-govt-replanting-scheme

Najib, BN will be around next elections, says Kadir Jasin Published: 26 September 2015 2:37 PM;  “Najib’s emotive use of ‘bangsat’ is bound to find currency with many rural Malays. Najib himself believes that if he could hang on to power until the next GE to lead BN to victory. “So those who think that Najib will be done away with soon and BN will be gone in the next GE better think twice. “For as long as he can get half of the pak cik, mak cik, Orang Asli, rural folk and Felda settlers to side with him, Umno would be returned to power and his position would then be unassailable. He would be vindicated.”   He said all Najib needed to do in the meantime was to ensure that no criminal action was taken against him, and BN lawmakers were kept in check to avoid either defections or a vote of no-confidence. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/najib-bn-will-be-around-next-elections-says-kadir-jasin#sthash.O9zjQiib.dpuf

IOI Corp least affected by weak CPO prices due to exposure to downstream segment   By PublicInvest Research / The Edge Financial Daily   | September 23, 2015 : 10:28 AM MYT   http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/ioi-corp-least-affected-weak-cpo-prices-due-exposure-downstream-segment

IOI to see better outlook in FY16 September 23, 2015, Wednesday http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/09/23/ioi-to-see-better-outlook-in-fy16/

Salim Group extends its reach WATARU SUZUKI, Nikkei staff writer September 24, 2015 12:00 am JST http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20150924-The-REBIRTH-of-SALIM-GROUP/On-the-Cover/Salim-Group-extends-its-reach
Moody's: China Slowdown to Hit Indonesian Mining, Agriculture Sectors  By : Vanesha Manuturi | on 12:54 PM September 24, 2015; Jakarta. Indonesia's mining and agriculture industries will take the biggest hits from China's slowing economy in the next year, international rating agency Moody's Investors Service predicts.  In a report that was published on Wednesday, Moody's noted that mining businesses in Indonesia, such as Berau Coal Energy and Indika Energy, will probably see already weak coal demand exacerbated due to the slowdown.  "Falling demand for Indonesian thermal coal from China has led to an 11 percent dip in coal exports for the first six months of 2015," Moody's analysts said. "Weakened Chinese demand is now exacerbating the ongoing four-year slump in thermal coal prices, which is reducing the earnings and cash flows of the rated Indonesian coal companies."  Sinar Mas Group's agri-business unit, Golden Agri-Resources, also has a large exposure to China as more than 20 percent of the company's revenue last year came from customers there, according to Moody's.  "Golden Agri-Resources has a deep-sea port and interests in edible oil refining and marketing in China, as well as noodle manufacturing and distribution. Profitablity remains volatile as a result of overcapacity in the oilseed-crushing industry," Moody's analysts said.  http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/moodys-china-slowdown-hit-indonesian-mining-agriculture-sectors/

Smallholders welcome independent Beluru mill project September 19, 2015, Saturday; BELURU: Smallholders have welcomed a proposed pilot independent palm oil mill project at Sungai Laong, where they have been invited to be among the shareholders. Assistant Minister of Agriculture (Farmers Organisation) Datuk Sylvester Entri Muran said preliminary preparations are being concluded and an official application will be submitted to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and Ministry of Land Development within a week. The stakeholders of the proposed mill will be the Sarawak Farmers Organisation (30 per cent), National Farmers Organisation (20 per cent), DD Plantation (30 per cent), Land Consolidation and Development Authority (10 per cent) and the smallholders (10 per cent). “This would be the first in Sarawak where smallholders can also purchase shares and be stakeholders in a palm oil mill,” Entri said during a project progress briefing to about 1,000 smallholders and representatives yesterday. The projected cost of the mill would be between RM40 million and RM50 million, which would involve RM5 million worth of shares for smallholders. Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/09/19/smallholders-welcome-independent-beluru-mill-project/#ixzz3owZxu7Xm

Palm oil giant Golden Agri-Resources stops buying from firm implicated in haze Published Sep 24, 2015, 5:00 am SGT http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/palm-oil-giant-stops-buying-from-firm-implicated-in-haze

Golden Agri says halts buys from haze-implicated supplier Wed Sep 23, 2015 2:04am EDT JAKARTA, Sept 23  |  By Michael Taylor  http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/23/indonesia-golden-agri-haze-idUSL4N11T1N920150923

Dairy, Palm Oil Firms Granted Tax Incentives to Help Expansion; By : Damiana Simanjuntak & Tabita Diela | on 8:19 PM September 21, 2015; Jakarta. One dairy and two palm oil companies have been granted tax allowances that will let them enjoy reduced income tax bills for up to 15 years. Fonterra Brands Manufacturing Indonesia, Wilmar Bioenergi Indonesia and Wilmar Nabati Indonesia were approved for the privilege after a Finance Ministry decree issued recently, according to Industry Ministry official Haris Munandar. Corporate income tax in Indonesia is typically set at 25 percent, with a discount offered to companies that invest heavily in the country. Haris did not provide details on how much of a discount the companies would enjoy. Fonterra Brands Manufacturing Indonesia plans to invest $29.6 million for a plant in Bekasi, on the eastern outskirts of Jakarta, to produce powdered milk. Wilmar Bioenergi Indonesia is pouring $36.1 million into its oil palm plantation in Dumai, Riau province, and Wilmar Nabati Indonesia is investing Rp 828.43 billion ($57 million) for its organic chemical base plant, also in Dumai. Haris said the government had extended the tax breaks to other companies and was currently reviewing two other requests.  http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/dairy-palm-oil-firms-granted-tax-incentives-help-expansion/

Inventure Renewables to build commercial scale waste oil biofuel plant for Wilmar in China  September 24, 2015   | Meghan Sapp;  In Alabama, Inventure Renewables, Inc. has announced construction of a commercial scale plant for Wilmar (China) Oleochemicals Co., Ltd. The commercial scale plant will be used to convert a waste vegetable oil byproduct into intermediate materials, which can be further processed into higher value food, feed and industrial products, including biodiesel. “We’re very excited to be working with Wilmar (China) Oleochemicals Co., Ltd.,” said Mark Tegen, President and Chief Executive Officer of Inventure Renewables. “The recent selection of Inventure’s Mixed Super Critical Fluid (MSCF) technology over competing alternatives is notable and would not have been possible without the compelling case for improved operational efficiencies that our technology offers.” Inventure has provided a complete solution for Wilmar including basic engineering, detailed engineering, equipment design, fabricat on, supervision of installation and start up support. It’s the company’s goal to provide comprehensive client solutions. http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2015/09/24/inventure-renewables-to-build-commercials-scale-waste-oil-biofuel-plant-for-wilmar-in-china/

Indonesia’s new emissions target actually a step back: Greenpeace The new target might seem like an improvement over Indonesia’s previous commitment to cut emissions growth by 26 per cent over projected business-as-usual levels by 2020, but it actually represents a regression, Greenpeace says. http://www.eco-business.com/news/indonesias-new-emissions-target-actually-a-step-back-greenpeace/

FGVH said to be target of global anti-palm oil lobby by Mohamad Azlan JaafarWednesday, September 23, 2015; Several anti-palm oil groups are pressuring international manufacturers to boycott products from Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGVH), according to industry sources. FGVH, Malaysia’s largest oil palm planter, is being singled out for using “unfair labour practices” among other things. There has always been an anti-oil palm lobby, but recently several non-governmental organisations’ (NGOs) have canvassed local manufacturers of consumer product companies to stop buying products from FGVH. “It appears that there is a move to target FGVH products using labour practices as the excuse,” said an industry source. “The authorities should investigate this latest move to boycott FGVH products.” Previously, anti-palm oil lobbyists, comprising NGOs and consumer groups, have cited deforestation, destruction of peatlands, health concerns, habitat degradation, animal cruelty and indigenous rights abuses to spread t eir anti-palm oil gospel. Today, they have added “modern slavery” into their argument to force international food and consumer goods manufacturers to abandon palm oil in the production of their products. http://themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/fgvh-said-be-target-global-anti-palm-oil-lobby

Many Asia-Pac corporates can withstand impact from China's slowdown: Moody's By Siow Li Sen; Most exposed to China are corporates in the metals and mining, coal, oil and gas, steel, chemical, auto, technology and agriculture sectors, said Moody's on Wednesday. Corporates with modest exposure are those in the business and consumer services, gaming, manufacturing, port, real estate, retail, shipping and trading sectors. Exposure is low for airports, homebuilding and building materials, telecommunications and utility sectors, as these sectors tend to derive their revenues domestically.... http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/many-asia-pac-corporates-can-withstand-impact-from-chinas-slowdown-moodys

China makes, another, cattle ranch purchase in Australia 15th Sept 2015, by Mike Verdin; China chalked up another land acquisition in Australia, as Fucheng Group purchased a 31,000-hectare cattle property at a price which exceeded market expectations – and the threshold requiring the deal to require government clearance. Fucheng for Aus$28.0m ($20m) bought the Woodlands cattle-fattening property in southern Queensland from MP Evans, the London-listed palm oil group which first put the ranch up for sale six years ago. The deal - which excludes the purchase of the cattle and equipment at the site, estimated by MP Evans to be worth more than Aus$10m – is considerably more than many commentators had expected for the site. http://www.agrimoney.com/news/china-makes-another-cattle-ranch-purchase-in-australia--8773.html

IOI Corp invests in German oleochemical firm   By Affin Hwang Capital / digitaledge Daily   | September 14, 2015 : 10:32 AM MYT     IOI Corp Bhd ( Valuation: 0.50, Fundamental: 1.05) (Sept 11, RM4.00)Maintain hold with target price (TP) of RM4.02: IOI Corp Bhd announced that an indirect-wholly-owned subsidiary had on Sept 9 entered into a conditional asset purchase agreement to acquire the entire oleochemicals business of Cremer Oleo GmbH & Co KG in Germany for http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/ioi-corp-invests-german-oleochemical-firm

To break up Sime Darby or not? by Khairie Hisyam     Published 14 Sep 2015, 2:17 pm https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/312245

Wilmar International plans partial stake sale in German subsidiary by Shiwen Yap, September 16, 2015:  Singapore-listed commodities group Wilmar International is considering divesting a part of its stake in German animal feed trading house H. Boegel (link in German). A Wilmar spokesperson said: “An interested party in the animal feed business has approached Wilmar to buy part of our stake and we are considering the proposal as it would benefit Boegel.” Boegel is an indirect subsidiary of Wilmar, which holds a 66 per cent stake in the firm through a subsidiary. The Hamburg-based firm is involved in the import and trading of animal feeds. Recently, Religare Institutional Research shared with the The Business Times that the agribusiness group is skating on thin ice, recommending investors to sell their shares in it and divest their interest in the group. According to Religare, Wilmar’s intense capital expenditure programme, estimated to be US$6.5 billion since 2010, has delivered poor returns to investors. http://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/wilmar-international-plans-partial-stake-sale-in-german-subsidiary-12507/

EU Approves Dutch Biodiesel JV Between Wilmar & Fox Petrolifera, 9/11/2015 8:21 PM ET The European Commission on Friday said it has approved the creation of a Dutch joint venture company between Wilmar International Limited of Singapore and Fox Petrolifera Italiana SpA of Italy, under the EU Merger Regulation. The joint venture will produce biodiesel and its by-products from an existing Italian biodiesel plant currently operated by Fox Petrolifera. Both companies' are active in the production of biodiesel as well as crude and refined glycerin. The joint venture's parent companies will also sell palm and seed oil, which are both used in the production of biodiesel. http://www.rttnews.com/2551853/eu-approves-dutch-biodiesel-jv-between-wilmar-fox-petrolifera.aspx

Broker's take: Wilmar skating on thin ice, says research house By Claire Huanghuang Aug 27, 201510:13 AM, RELIGARE Institutional Research said on Thursday that Singapore-headquartered agribusiness group Wilmar International is skating on thin ice, and initiated coverage on it with a "sell" call and a target price of S$2.27. Wilmar's intense capital expenditure programme (US$6.5 billion over last five years) has delivered poor returns, Religare says. "Its core refining business is threatened by severe overcapacity and driven by volatile trading gains. At 14x enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation & amortisation FY2015 forecast, Wilmar is overvalued for its risks." http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/brokers-take-wilmar-skating-on-thin-ice-says-research-house

Plantation Company Eagle High Secures Rp 2.74t Loan From BNI By : Jakarta Globe | on 2:52 PM September 13, 2015; Jakarta. Plantation company Eagle High Plantations secured Rp 2.74 trillion ($192.3 million) in loans from state lender Bank Negara Indonesia to repay its debts and expand its businesses, Eagle High said in a statement released on Friday.  Eagle High’s corporate secretary Rudy Suhendra said the company signed the loan deal with BNI last Thursday.  ”The [loan] facility will be used to repay existing debts to BNI and develop the company's palm plantation business [through subsidiaries],” Rudy said in the statement, adding that the loans mature in 84 to 96 months.  Eagle High’s subsidiaries Bumilanggeng Perdanatrada, Bumihutani Lestari, Adhyaksa Dharmasatya, Satria Manunggal Sejahtera and Prima Cipta Selaras stand to benefit from the loan.  Eagle High has this year set aside Rp 800 billion in capital expenditure to be spent on developing two new palm oil processing companies and 5,000-10,000 hectares of plantation area. http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/plantation-company-eagle-high-secures-rp-2-74t-loan-bni/

Felda gets UMA query on share price surge Published: 14 September 2015 9:01 PM Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) has been issued an unusual market activity (UMA) query by Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd, after the sudden sharp rise in its share price today. FGV's counter rose as high as 30% to trade at RM1.65 today. The stock has been on a slide since early this year, plunging to its historical low of RM1.19 on August 26. FGV saw a stellar listing debut when its shares rose 19% premium to RM5.39, over its retail offering price of RM4.55. It closed at RM5.30 on the first day of listing on June 28, 2012. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/felda-gets-uma-query-on-share-price-surge#sthash.UpJM3Y5t.dpuf

Felda Settlers Assembly should be called off if connected to Red shirt rally Posted on 14 September 2015 - 05:56pm; PETALING JAYA: The Felda Settlers Assembly on Sept 16 should be called off if it is in any way connected to the coming Red shirt rally on the same day, Felda Settlers Children Association (Anak) president Mazlan Aliman said today. Mazlan questioned the legitimacy of the assembly and urged Felda director general Datuk Hanapi Suhada to clarify several key points in a letter issued by one Zulhai Mohd Nor Affendy, allegedly on behalf of the Felda Community Development director. "Anak wants to clarify, what is the motive behind this assembly. If it is related to the Red shirt rally, we urge that the assembly be cancelled. "Felda must not be involved in any activity that presents a security risk and exploits its settlers for certain political agenda," he said in a Facebook post today. http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1552058

Felda settlers bussed in for M'sia Day, not rally by Alyaa Azhar     Published 15 Sep 2015, 3:22 pm; The Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) has denied that its event to be held tomorrow in the city centre has any connection with the red shirt rally. “We don’t have any connection with the red shirt rally. We just want to celebrate Malaysia Day which is on the 16th,” said a Felda spokesperson. https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/312405

16 September 2015: Thailand PTT sells interest in East Kalimantan unit, Provident Agro unit caught up in Riau fires charge

Thailand's PTT to Sell More Palm Oil Assets in Indonesia By : Reuters | on 06:00 AM September 10, 2015; Bangkok. PTT Pcl, Thailand's largest energy firm, said on Wednesday it will sell its stake in a palm oil business in Indonesia for an undisclosed sum as part of a plan to divest non-core assets. Its subsidiary PTT Green Energy Pte will sell its entire holding in PTT Green Energy (Netherlands) Cooperatief U.A. (PTTGE) to its partner in the operation, Sindopalm Pte Ltd, an affiliate of PT Kalpataru Investama, the Thai firm said in a statement. PTT had been in investing since 2010 in PTTGE, which has interests in seven palm oil companies in East Kalimantan with a total area of 78,877 ha. ... The PTT unit had in June sold its 95 percent stake in a palm oil business in Indonesia for $35 million.  http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/thailands-ptt-sell-palm-oil-assets-indonesia/

Provident Agro unit - Police Charge Oil Palm Company Over Sumatra Forest Fire By : Jakarta Globe | on 16:39 PM September 14, 2015; The company has been identified as Langgam Inti Hibrida, an joins 40 individuals charged with setting 37 forest fires in Riau province, according to Adj. Sr. Comr. Guntur Aryo Tedjo, a spokesman for the provincial police....Established in 1998, LIH is based in Riau’s Pelalawan district and is 99.8 percent owned by publicly lited Provident Agro. The company was also cited earlier this year by district environmental officials for improper waste management.  http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/news/police-charge-oil-palm-company-sumatra-forest-fire/

13 September 2015: Sime Darby to Raise $1.5 Billion From Rights Issue, Various ratings downgrades, GAR biodiesel push, Goldman banker joins Wilmar for deal making, Wilmar's new industrial estate and port, Felda denies WSJ allegations, worries that Indonesia subsidy will undermine sustainability and IPOP pledges


Editor's note - due to being away on travels lately news review has been a bit sparse, so this segment is a major review going back to 28 August.

Will Indonesia’s new palm oil subsidy undermine no-deforestation push? 1st September 2015 / Philip Jacobson & Sapariah Saturi - Officials are selling nascent CPO Fund on sustainability grounds, but experts fear it will do more harm than good... • Questions remain about whether the CPO Fund will carry environmental safeguards and how its resources will be divided between its two main purposes: helping farmers increase their yields and subsidizing biodiesel. • A senior adviser to the energy minister worries the subsidy, if administered haphazardly, could throw an unfortunate lifeline to the dwindling market for palm oil from deforestation, peatland coversion and land grabbing. • The man who designed the fund says it's all about sustainability because it will reduce dependence on foreign petroleum and shore up flagging palm oil prices. http://news.mongabay.com/2015/09/will-indonesias-new-palm-oil-subsidy-undermine-no-deforestation-push/

Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Golden Agri-Resources Ltd to Ba3; outlook negative by Global Credit Research - 04 Sep 2015; Singapore, September 04, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the corporate family rating of Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (GAR) to Ba3 from Ba2.  The outlook on the rating remains negative....  "The downgrade reflects an ongoing erosion in palm oil prices such that they have now hit six-year lows and our view that GAR will be unable to reduce leverage significantly in the next six to nine months from over 6x currently, and its liquidity will continue to remain under pressure," says Alan Greene, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.  Despite adverse market conditions, GAR has continued to make further progress towards refinancing the probable put on its convertible bonds on 4 October 2015.  https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Golden-Agri-Resources-Ltd-to-Ba3-outlook-negative--PR_333585

Golden Agri Resources to build $150m biodiesel facility Anggi M. Lubis, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Fri, August 14 2015, 3:46 PM; “We are currently in the process of building two biodiesel plants of 300,000 tons per annum each in capacity, of which we expect can be completed by next year,” he said.“The construction for one of the plants started earlier so it is expected to be fully completed in the first half [of next year] while the second one has just started recently so it will be done toward the second half.”For the two plants, Fung said that a total of $150 million in investments would be disbursed, and the expansion was carried out by one of GAR’s subsidiaries. The new plants, he explained, are located in Marunda in North Jakarta and Tarjun in South Kalimantan. - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/08/14/golden-agri-resources-build-150m-biodiesel-facility.html#sthash.hCX7NdrI.dpuf

Former Top Goldman Banker Joins Wilmar in Dealmaking Role by  Chanyaporn Chanjaroen and Joyce Koh  September 8, 2015 — 12:09 PM HKTUpdated on September 8, 2015 — 5:42 PM HKT; Wilmar International Ltd., the world’s biggest palm-oil processor, has hired former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker Hsin Yue Yong for a dealmaking role. Yong, who was Goldman’s head of Southeast Asia investment banking, joined Wilmar in July as general manager for special projects, the Singapore-based company said in an e-mailed statement Tuesday responding to Bloomberg queries. The former banker’s role is “centered around” strategic development, which also involves mergers and acquisitions, according to the statement. Yong, who’s related by marriage to the billionaire Kuok family that controls Wilmar, has about two decades of dealmaking experience, the statement shows.    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/former-top-goldman-sachs-banker-yong-joins-wilmar-in-m-a-role

Wilmar’s industrial estate to kick off operations this year The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Sat, August 08 2015, 4:13 PM; The Wilmar Group Indonesia, which is the country’s largest palm oil producer and a subsidiary of Singapore-listed Wilmar International, is developing the zone on a piece of land measuring approximately 1,744 hectares, which includes 544 ha of reclamation area for a port and industrial development.The integrated industrial estate will have its own power plant with a capacity of 2 x 1,000 Megawatts worth US$2.5 billion, a port with a loading capacity of 30 million tons per year worth $500 million of investment and a railway system. The zone’s construction phase cost $130 million worth of investment from the total planned investment of $700 million and has absorbed around 2,000 workers. Currently, the project is entering the port construction phase.Wilmar Group Indonesia director Erik Tjia said on Friday that his office was in the process of applying for the port construction permit.“We will finish the project gradually with infrastructure construction as the priority,” he said as quoted by kontan.co.id, adding that the port would be focused on facilitating exported goods shipments while the railway would provide access for transporting raw materials and finished products. - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/08/08/wilmar-s-industrial-estate-kick-operations-year.html#sthash.idr1yUzc.dpuf

Singapore businesses mark 10 years of CSR push By Medilyn Manibo Thursday 27 August 2015; Keppel Land, Wilmar and Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore have received accolades for championing corporate social responsibility as part of their core business practices. http://www.eco-business.com/news/singapore-businesses-mark-10-years-of-csr-push/

Sime Darby to Raise $1.5 Billion From Rights Issue - The potential share sale, which likely would be Malaysia’s biggest this year, comes after palm-oil prices hit six-year lows By P.R. Venkat  Sept. 8, 2015 1:07 a.m. ET  SINGAPORE—State-controlled Malaysian palm-oil producer Sime Darby Bhd. is planning to raise around $1.5 billion from a rights issue that could shore up its balance sheet, people with knowledge of the deal said Tuesday. http://www.wsj.com/articles/sime-darby-to-raise-1-5-billion-from-rights-issue-1441688842

Moody’s downgrades Sime Darby’s sukuk and notes  Saturday, 5 September 2015; KUALA LUMPUR: Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded the outlook for Sime Darby Bhd’s sukuk and medium-term note (MTN) programme to “negative” as the diversified conglomerate – which is involved in plantations, property and motors – had been impacted across the board. The international ratings agency said yesterday that Sime Darby was affected by the slower rate of growth in China and most Asia-Pacific economies, lower commodity prices and a weaker ringgit.  “This has seen leverage surge to over four times for the year ended June 30, 2015 from 1.5 times for FY2012,” it said....http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/09/05/Moodys-downgrades-Sime-Darbys-sukuk-and-notes/?style=biz

FGV in final stage of acquiring stake in Eagle High Plantations Published: 10 September 2015 11:06 PM; EHP owns 425,000 hectares of oil palm plantations, out of which 67% are in Kalimantan and the rest in Papua New Guinea (9%), Sulawesi (19 per cent) and Sumatra (5%). – Bernama - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/fgv-in-final-stage-of-acquiring-stake-in-eagle-high-plantations#sthash.QYWLIH7M.dpuf

FGV taps India’s oil palm potential  By GOH THEAN HOWE - 7 September 2015 @ 11:00 AM  KUALA LUMPUR: FELDA Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), the world's largest crude palm oil producer, plans to collaborate and explore partnership opportunities with a few Indian partners to further strengthen its market position as the leader in the oil palm-based downstream sector.... http://www.nst.com.my/news/2015/09/fgv-taps-india%E2%80%99s-oil-palm-potential

Viterra buys Canada oilseed plant from Malaysia's Felda By Reuters Media  on Sep 8, 2015    at 8:25 a.m. WINNIPEG, Manitoba - Viterra Inc, the agriculture segment of Glencore PLC, said on Thursday that it agreed to buy Eastern Canada's largest oilseed processing plant from Malaysia's Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd.    Felda, the world's third-largest palm plantation operator, said it would sell the TRT-ETGO plant at Bécanour, Quebec to Viterra for C$190 million ($143.43 million)... http://www.agweek.com/news/business-and-technology/3834107-viterra-buys-canada-oilseed-plant-malaysias-felda

Felda stronghold maintain Najib’s grip on power BY RAM ANAND Published: 6 September 2015 8:55 AM | Updated: 6 September 2015 11:09 AM - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/felda-strongholds-hold-the-fort-for-najib#sthash.AKy1OtyG.dpuf

More homes to be built for Felda settlers  by sharanpal singh randhawa Updated: Monday August 31, 2015 MYT 11:35:32 AM; KUALA TERENGGANU: More homes will be built for the second generation of Federal and Land Development Authority (Felda) settlers, as a sign of the government’s gratitude to them. Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said the houses would cost between RM60,000 and RM70,000. “Recently I announced that house prices for the second generation of Felda settlers be reduced from RM120,000 to RM90,000. But now, I would like to announce that more houses will be built for them and these houses would only cost between RM60,000 and RM70,000. “This is because Felda settlers have risked and sacrificed everything they had and placed all their trust in the government....“The price of the Felda Global Ventures (FGV) shares will rise and fall and that is normal. My advice to settlers is, keep your shares and not to sell them. Let them accumulate and the price will rise. “For the short term, what we have is the dividend. Last year, we paid a total of RM59.2mil in dividends, I can assure you that Felda has enough of reserves to continue paying such dividends for a long time,” he said. Najib said the Government was constantly finding ways to ensure that Felda settlers benefit from any major venture...  http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2015/08/31/More-homes-to-be-built-for-Felda-settlers/

Felda denies WSJ report on workers’ abuse, hiring illegals Published: 28 August 2015 9:17 PM; Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) has investigated allegations of human rights abuses raised by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and clarified that it did not employ illegal immigrants. In a statement, it said a special taskforce was assembled and chaired by its group president and chief executive officer, Datuk Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah, to investigate the allegations and reiterated that all its workers were employed in full compliance of all regulations and laws. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/felda-denies-wsj-report-on-workers-abuse-hiring-illegals#sthash.XDFSt14s.dpuf

FGV net profit takes a hit from falling palm oil prices Tuesday, 25 August 2015; PETALING JAYA: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), which is buying a 37% stake in Indonesian planter Eagle High Plantations Tbk, said net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2015 plunged 70% to RM46.09mil from RM151.86mil a year ago...http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/08/25/FGV-net-profit-takes-a-hit-from-falling-palm-oil-prices/?style=biz

BIMB Securities cuts Felda Global's target to RM1.03   by The Edge Markets  KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 25): BIMB Securities Research has maintained its “Sell” rating on Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) with a lower ...

Rating Action: Moody's affirms IOI ratings at Baa2; changes outlook to negative - Global Credit Research - 04 Sep 2015; Based on IOI's latest financial results for the year ended 30 June 2015 (FY2015), credit metrics have weakened further with adjusted debt/EBITDA at 4x, and negative retained cash flow.  "IOI's credit metrics are largely a function of the company's policy in terms of shareholder distributions and capital structure and therefore controllable by management," says Alan Greene, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer...   https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-IOI-ratings-at-Baa2-changes-outlook-to-negative--PR_333581


10 September 2015: Sinar Mas mulls bioplastics, two biodiesel plants in construction


Sinar Mas Group Mulls Plans to Start Producing Bioplastic - Jakarta GLobe, ...Franky Widjdja, the chairman of publicly listed Sinar Mas Agribusiness & Foods (SMART), said the company was currently researching the feasibility of bioplastics, which are derived from vegetable-based oils such palm oil, rather than from crude oil.  "We're learning about the commercial possibilities of the business. Right now, the government is offering a really attractive incentive," Franky told reporters in Jakarta over the weekend...Sinar Mas Group is currently constructing two biodiesel fuel factories located in Jakarta and Kalimantan with total capacity to process up to 800,000 metric tons of crude palm oil, Franky said. "The investment wasn't really that costly. It ranges from about $30 million to $40 million for one plant," he added....  http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/sinar-mas-group-mulls-plans-start-producing-bioplastic/

7 September 2015: Felda mulls price cut for Indonesia deal, plantations the mainstay for Sime, DSN stock split, palm oil mill sludge pellets, S&P lowers IOI Corp outlook


Felda Said to Mull Price Cut for $680 Million Indonesia Deal  by Joyce Koh and Elffie Chew  September 1, 2015 — 5:33 PM HKTUpdated on September 2, 2015 — 6:40 PM HKT; Felda said June 12 it planned to buy 37 percent of Eagle High from Indonesian conglomerate Rajawali Group for $680 million in cash and shares. That implies an enterprise value of about $17,400 per hectare of land, compared with the $25,900 that Sime Darby Bhd. paid for New Britain Palm Oil Ltd. in March, Felda Chief Executive Officer Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah said in a July interview. Employees Provident Fund, Malaysia’s biggest pension fund manager, is concerned about the valuation Felda is paying, the official Bernama news agency reported in June

Plantations the mainstay of Sime Saturday, 29 August 2015  By: HANIM ADNAN; SIME Darby Bhd has built its reputation as one of the world’s largest listed palm oil conglomerates producing some 2.8 million tonnes of crude palm oil (CPO), which represents 5% of the world’s total production. Despite its well-diversified business portfolio, Sime’s plantation division has been the mainstay contributing over 40% to the group’s profit annually.  Hence, to keep up with the high momentum in the oil palm business, Sime has aggressively been expanding its land bank overseas given the scarcity of suitable land for oil palm in Malaysia.  Sime has a total land bank of one million ha across Malaysia, Indonesia, Liberia, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea (PNG)..... http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/08/29/Plantations-the-mainstay-of-Sime/?style=biz

Dharma Satya Nusantara Plans 1-to-5 Stock Split  http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/dharma-satya-nusantara-plans-1-5-stock-split/

‘Sustainability company’ transforms palm mill wastes into fuel for electricity  Saturday, 5 September 2015; “In 2013, we found a palm oil mill owner in Klang who was willing to give us a chance, and a Korean company agreed to invest in us,” he told StarBizWeek.... Hyper Fusion treats the waste water sludge and separates the solid particles from the mix. The remaining sludge is then turned into pellets. A palm oil mill generates four kinds of waste: empty fruit bunches, oil palm mesocarp fibre (OPMF), kernel shells (PKS) and POME – collectively known as biomass. The company takes all the four by-products and processes them by removing up to 90% of moisture, thereby transforming them into an efficient form of fuel for the boilers. “A mill usually has at least 10 ponds, and the ponds take up about two-thirds of the mill area. “What we do eliminates the need for so many ponds. All we need is the first pond, and the last two ponds,” said Dinesh. Not only was Hyper Fusion’s method better for the environment, he said, but also saved a lot of space in the mill area, which could be used for other operations such as farming. The process treats the effluent and reduces the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and BOD (biochemical oxygen demand) by 80% in less than 10 minutes. The remainder is then sent into the last two ponds to complete the clarification process which takes about two weeks. When it is done using the traditional ponding method, the entire process usually takes between 90 and 120 days.... http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/09/05/Power-from-biofuel-pellets/?style=biz

S&P lowers IOI Corp outlook to negative Wednesday, 2 September 2015; S&P credit analyst Vishal Kulkarni said he had revised the outlook as IOI’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) and cash flows were likely to be weaker than earlier expected over the next 12 months because of a recent sharp decline in CPO prices. “At the same time, IOI’s reported debt will increase following the depreciation of the ringgit. The company’s distribution of the majority of its operating cash flow to shareholders limits its deleveraging potential,” he said. Kulkarni has projected that IOI’s ratio of debt to earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and Ebitda would deteriorate to more than 3.5 times for fiscal 2016 ending June 30, 2016. This is based on the assumption that the ringgit will stay at about 4.2 per US dollar and CPO prices would remain subdued for the rest of the fiscal year. “The negative outlook reflects our view that IOI’s debt-to-Ebitda ratio may not recover to close to 3 times over the next six to 12 months if CPO prices remained at current levels and the company’s shareholder distributions stay elevated....http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/09/02/SP-lowers-IOI-Corp-outlook-to-negative/?style=biz

Glencore Studies Selling Stake in Agriculture Unit to Curb Debt by  Javier Blas and Jesse Riseborough  September 7, 2015 — 3:21 PM HKTUpdated on September 7, 2015 — 5:43 PM HKT; Glencore Plc is considering selling a minority stake in its agriculture business as part of the Swiss miner and commodity trader’s wider plan to reduce its $30 billion of debt by about a third.
It could bring in investors in infrastructure assets in the agriculture unit including ports, rail and storage facilities, or even sell a minority stake in the overall business, Glencore Chief Financial Officer Steve Kalmin said. There’s been “quite a lot of interest” in food commodities from sovereign wealth funds in China and Japan, he said Monday in a phone interview. A sale would mark a retreat by Glencore, less than five months after saying it sought to expand in agriculture following the success of its C$6.1 billion ($4.6 billion) purchase of Canadian grain trader Viterra Inc. in 2012. Viterra said just two weeks ago it would spend C$190 million on an oilseed processing plant. Asian traders and sovereign funds have spent billions in the industry in the past two years as growing populations boost food demand.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-07/glencore-studies-selling-stake-in-agriculture-unit-to-curb-debt

22 August 2015: Expectations of weak 2Q2015 for Malaysian plantations, KL Kepong results, FGV denies raising wages


Tough times for palm planters Saturday, 22 August 2015  By: HANIM ADNAN Tough times for palm planters Saturday, 22 August 2015 By: HANIM ADNAN Weak CPO price to hurt earnings; rising stockpile and production to affect sentiment A BUMPY ride ahead is envisaged for plantation companies as their earnings are expected to be dragged down by weaker average crude palm oil (CPO) selling prices. The price of CPO, which has fallen by about 14% year-to-date, is currently trading below the RM2,000-per-tonne mark.  According to OilWorld estimates, world palm oil production this year will hit a record 60.7 million tonnes, thus contributing to a surge in the stock-usage ratio. Singapore-based Nomura Research, in its latest report, expects a weak second quarter 2015 (Q2) results for Malaysian plantation companies. “In the last few weeks, Indonesia and Singapore plantation companies have released their Q2 results. “All of the companies under our coverage reported results that were below market expectations, due mainly to the weaker average selling prices.” http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/08/22/Tough-times-for-palm-planters/?style=biz

KL Kepong core earnings below survey Thursday, 20 August 2015; KUALA LUMPUR: Affin Hwang Capital Research said Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd’s (KL Kepong) core net profit for the nine months to June 30 were below expectations due to lower selling prices for crude palm oil (CPO), palm kernel and rubber as well as continued pressure on manufacturing margins.
“Based on our lower CPO average selling price (ASP) forecast for 2015-2017 estimate, our core net profit forecasts are cut by 7%-10%, resulting in a lower price target of RM21.21,” it said. http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/08/20/KL-Kepong-core-earnings-below-survey/?style=biz

Wages of plantation workers not raised, says Felda Published: 17 August 2015 10:54 PM; "We have not raised the wages of our plantation workers, including palm oil mill employees, and other general workers, by 8 to 10% effective April 1, 2015, as suggested in the report. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/wages-of-plantation-workers-not-raised-says-felda#sthash.26HV7ktW.dpuf

Bumitama Agri's Q2 profit drops 26% By Nisha Ramchandani; Aug 13, 201511:45 AM PALM-OIL planter Bumitama Agri reported a 26 per cent year on year slide in net profit to 217.08 billion Indonesian rupiah (S$22 million) for the second quarter ended June 30, due to the lower selling prices of crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel (PK), share of losses of associate companies as well as higher costs and expenses. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/bumitama-agris-q2-profit-drops-26

First Resources' net profit from operations down 6.8% on weak palm oil prices - Weaker palm oil prices dragged down performance at First Resources.  Weaker palm oil prices dragged down performance at First Resources. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG Aug 13, 2015, 11:48 am SGT by Yasmine Yahya; SINGAPORE - Weaker palm oil prices dragged down performance at First Resources, which said net profit from operations for the second quarter fell 6.8 per cent from a year ago to US$47 million, even as sales rose. Sales in the three months ended June 30 increased 5.9 per cent to US$118.8 million due to higher sales volumes of palm-based products, partially offset by the effects of lower average selling prices....http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/first-resources-net-profit-from-operations-down-68-on-weak-palm-oil


27 July 2015: PT Provident Agro key shareholders want to sell, First Resources acquires 6,000 ha, Genting Plantations said to buy 70,000 ha oil palm plantation


from AmBank research 27 July: Bloomberg reported that PT Provident Agro’s two largest shareholders are exploring a sale of their majority stake in the company. Provident Capital Partners and PT Saratoga Investments may start reaching out to buyers next month. The two shareholders own a combined stake of 88.3% in Provident Agro, which has a market capitalisation of US$339mil (share price of Rp640). Provident Agro has 44,475ha of planted landbank and 110,000ha of total landbank.

From CIMB research 23 July: First Resources has acquired PT Falcon Agri, an Indonesian planter with 6,000ha of planted oil palm estates, for an estimated US$11,000/ha, which we view as fair. Meanwhile, we expect the group to meet our expectations by delivering a core net profit of US$34m when it releases its 2Q results on 13 Aug. The stock remains an Add due to its young estates and strong management. Our target price stays at S$2.44, based on 15.3x or its historical average P/E.

MALAYSIA PRESS-Genting Plantations plans Indonesia expansion-Business Times Wed Jul 22, 2015 8:42pm EDT Malaysia's Genting Plantations Bhd plans to buy a 70,000-hectare oil palm plantation in Indonesia to grow its business in the country, Business Times reported on Thursday, citing sources. The plantations arm of Malaysian conglomerate Genting Bhd has identified the site in Indonesia and is in talks with relevant parties before entering into an agreement, the sources was quoted as saying.... http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/23/malaysia-press-genting-plntn-idUSL3N10305Y20150723

21 July 2015: FGV Emir to stay on, FGV to raise money from non-core asset sale, Dr M shared concerns says FGV activitist, FGV says no more new acquisitions;  Volac-Wilmar global animal feed fats business, Sime Darby plantations moves to dispose of its non-core business and ease future cashflow, Green Synergy Sdn Bhd a significant SME player in the Malayisa biomass sector

Emir to stay on? Tuesday, 21 July 2015 By: SHARIDAN M. ALI PETALING JAYA: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) group president and CEO Datuk Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah’s contract to helm the plantation group is likely to be renewed for another year, sources said.
It is learnt that Emir’s contract that ended last Wednesday was extended. Previously there was speculation that there would be a new person to lead FGV following scrutiny on the company’s performance and deals. FGV had yet to get back to query on the issue at press time.
FGV market capitalisation has halved since its Bursa debut back in 2012 and its latest proposed purchase of a 37% stake in Indonesia’s PT Eagle High Plantations for US$680mil on June 12 was criticised as being an expensive deal.  Emir has defended the Eagle High deal as FGV was paying a lower enterprise value (EV) at US$17,400 per planted ha, contrary to market talk that its purchase of Indonesia’s third largest listed oil palm planter was overpriced..... http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/07/21/Emir-to-stay-on/?style=biz

FGV to raise RM1bil from non-core asset sale Thursday, 9 July 2015; KUALA LUMPUR: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) plans to raise more than RM1bil selling non-core assets as the world’s biggest crude palm oil producer focuses on plantations to repair investor confidence dented by an acquisition. Unprofitable crushing and refining businesses in the US and Canada that have drawn initial bids ranging from US$180mil (RM686mil) to US$250mil (RM953mil) may be sold later this month, chief executive officer Emir Mavani Abdullah said in an interview. Holdings in a travel firm, and engineering and information technology units may fetch a further RM300mil, he said.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/07/09/FGV-to-raise-RM1bil-from-noncore-asset-sale/?style=biz

Dr Mahathir shared concerns over FGV listing, says activist Published: 6 July 2015 10:14 PM; Former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had feared that the listing of Malaysia oil palm giant Felda Global Ventures Holdings (FGV) would not bode well for settlers under the government scheme to resettle and uplift the rural poor through smallholdings, an activist for Felda settlers said. National Felda Settlers' Children's Association (Anak) president Mazlan Aliman said this on his Facebook page after the non-governmental organisation met Dr Mahathir today at Perdana Leadership Foundation in Putrajaya. Mazlan, a PAS member, said the NGO had a one hour meeting with Dr Mahathir on Felda, FGV, Korporasi Permodalan Felda, 1Malaysia Development Berhad, the goods and services tax and his criticism against Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak. googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1400601790726-3');}); "Why did FGV throw away money to buy hotels, factories and invest overseas when there are room and vast opportunities to do so at home? Buying assets at high prices and taking advantage for personal interests...Mazlan said Dr Mahathir's views on Felda's listing was the most interesting issue he spoke about at the meeting, adding that the former prime minister had also talked about Najib and the things he had done which have "jeopardised" the country. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/dr-mahathir-shared-concerns-over-fgv-listing-says-activist#sthash.WZt5KFNc.dpuf

Felda Global to strengthen investments, drive growth, new acquisitions out Tuesday, 7 July 2015; PETALING JAYA: Plantation conglomerate Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) said it would not be looking at any new acquisitions but would focus on strengthening its investments. “FGV will not be pursuing more acquisitions we will consolidate all our investments and drive growth,” the group said in a statement yesterday. “FGV will also focus on integrating and extracting efficiencies of recent acquisitions. Our goal is to empower management teams, guided by a unifying vision and culture of performance and sustainability,” it added.  In the last three years, FGV had spent more than RM4bil on mergers and acquisitions, comprising mainly brownfield plantations to fast-track growth expansion and improve its crop age profile..... http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/07/07/Felda-Global-to-strengthen-investments-drive-growth/?style=biz

Volac, Wilmar form global animal feed fats business Published on: Jul 6, 2015; Volac International Ltd. and Wilmar International Ltd. announced July 6 the creation of a joint venture group to develop their added value animal feed fat business around the world. Volac Wilmar Feed Ingredients combines the nutritional reputation, global brand and sales network of Volac with the operational raw material logistics and scale of Wilmar. The joint venture will focus on animal feed fats, supporting the dairy farming industry through nutritional expertise, by marketing an expanded "MEGA" branded range of feed fat products that will be responsibly sourced through a leading sustainability approach and by maximizing operational efficiency. Volac Animal Nutrition managing director David Neville said, "Volac believes that responsibly sourced feed fats will play a key role in sustainable livestock nutrition in the future and, therefore, we are expanding our fats business as part of our company strategy. The joint venture with  ilmar will supply sustainable and traceable fat nutrition ingredients, which will help improve the productivity of livestock production across world markets." Napoleon Pefianco, managing director of Wilmar Europe Holdings B.V., added that the two companies "have an aspiration to set the agenda for sustainability. Through the joint venture, we will use our combined resources to develop sustainable feed ingredients globally, putting the joint venture at the leading edge of ethically sourced feed fat ingredients." Volac and Wilmar have an existing business relationship through a joint venture called Volac Ingredients Sdn. Bhd. (VISB), which is based in Malaysia and was established in 2003. This joint venture produces MEGALAC rumen-protected fat under license in China. Volac is a privately-owned business based near Cambridge, U.K., that focuses on improving livestock productivity and helping consumers to live healthier lives for longer. http://feedstuffs.com/story-volac-wilmar-form-global-animal-feed-fats-business-45-129578

Tesco stake sale seen as in line with Sime Darby’s plan Thursday, 9 July 2015  By: EUGENE MAHALINGAM; PETALING JAYA: The proposed disposal of Sime Darby Bhd’s 30% stake in Tesco Malaysia will be in line with the plantation giant’s move to dispose of its non-core business and ease future cashflow.... MIDF Research, in a report yesterday, noted that Tesco Malaysia only accounted for 0.6% of Sime Darby’s total earnings last year. “In its financial year ended June 30, 2014 (FY14), Tesco Malaysia contributed RM25mil to Sime Darby’s profit before interest and taxes (PBIT). “Against the group’s PBIT of RM4.22bil, it was only 0.6%,” it said, adding that Sime’s Darby’s net asset for its 30% stake in Tesco Malaysia was RM94.4mil based on its FY14 annual report.” AmResearch in its report yesterday said the disposal of Tesco Malaysia, if it happened, could help Sime Darby to part-finance the recent acquisition of New Britain Palm Oil Ltd (NBPOL). “This could be positive from a cash flow point of view, and a disposal of its stake in Tesco Malaysia would be in line with a disposal of a non-core business,” it said........... http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/07/09/In-line-with-Sime-Darbys-plan/?style=biz

From palm waste to wealth Updated: Monday July 20, 2015 MYT 8:17:00 AM; Datuk Joseph Lim Heng Ye, 41, is now a well-known figure in the green business scene, having built up his startup which focused on turning palm waste into revenue-generating bio-products since 2008. Global Green Synergy Sdn Bhd (GGS), the company Lim founded together with Ngan Teng Ye, has now become a significant SME player in the local biomass sector. The company converts palm oil waste (biomass) into palm fiber, palm pellet and other palm-related products. It also makes the machines that produce these products. After Lim won the prestigious World Creative Young Entrepreneur Award (2011-World Champion Winner) by Brussels-based Junior Chamber International in 2011, there has been no shortage of green jobs for GGS. The RMB1bil project to green the Kubuqi Desert in Inner Mongolia, which sees GGS partnering with China’s Elion Resources Group, is just the latest example. And a whopper it is, too. Back in 2013, the company set up a joint venture with Malaysia Palm Oil Board to produce palm bio-briquette to be used as biofuel. Yet another achievement for GGS is its partnership with Chinalight (Guangzhou) Import & Export Corp in October 2013 to supply biomass pellets to the Chinese power giant..... http://www.thestar.com.my/Metro/SMEBiz/People/2015/07/20/From-palm-waste-to-wealth/

8 July 2015: Najib announces RM88.8 million for Felda settlers, and highlights FGV plan to buy 420,000 ha in PNG

Najib announces RM88.8 million for Felda settlers, payment starts next week Published: 7 July 2015 8:39 PM; "We need to be with Felda, do not stray too far away... actually those who confuse Felda people are those who come to Felda like pests out to poison the minds of settlers so much so when we do good, the people say otherwise," he told Bernama. He said Felda has various plans to improve the income of settlers and overcome the constraints of land to be developed as plantations in the country. He added that FGV planned to purchase 420,000 hectares of land in Papua New Guinea which could generate revenue double the amount in this country as the volcanic land there is fertile. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/najib-announces-rm88.8-million-for-felda-settlers-payment-starts-next-week#sthash.yHdN3Hb9.dpuf

26 June 2015: Australian sugar industry reject Wilmar proposal, farmers prepare to fight, Wilmar calls on Singapore help to fight back - on Australia FTA obligation breach, Wilmar calls up boats for almost all record ICE sugar delivery, FGV Trading targets RM6-8 billion revenue, PT Eagle High Plantations unit in spotlight on forest clearance, FGV’s Indonesian deal a bailout for Najib crony, say bankers  - The Edge Review, Indonesia's Rajawali to maintain 2.55% stake in FGV (on Thursday it said it would like to hold at least 21% of FGV if the Malaysian firm decides to seek a controlling stake), Heng Huat Resources invests RM35m to expand in Kelantan, Indonesia's PT Indofood Sukses Makmur  plans sugar investment, eastern Indonesia prepares 500,000 ha for sugar and cattle investors

Australian sugar industry reject Wilmar proposal, puts government under spotlight SYDNEY, June 25  |  By Colin Packham;  Australian sugar growers on Thursday rejected a marketing proposal from the country's largest sugar processor Wilmar International Ltd, saying it does not guarantee top prices, and called for laws that give them a say in exports. Wilmar, MSF Sugar, owned by Thai sugar giant Mitr Phol , and the Australian unit of Chinese agribusiness COFCO Corp plan to stop selling sugar through the industry-owned marketing body from 2017. Australian sugar is currently controlled by an independent entity, Queensland Sugar Limited. The three processors want to bypass the industry body and use their own exporting arm, which they say will allow them to control their supply chains and maximise revenues. But the move is unpopular with sugar farmers in Australia, the world's third largest exporter of raw sweetener. Sugar cane must be processed within a day of being harvested and with no alternative millers nearby, growers say they have no choice but to sell to the three processors and have little assurance on crop prices."An Australian sugar farmer should have free choice in his economic destiny and the Wilmar proposal does not allow that," said Steve Guazzo, chairman of the industry body, CANEGROWERS.... http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/25/australia-sugar-wilmar-idUSL3N0ZB2OC20150625

Debate on sugar marketing escalates 19th Jun 2015 5:00 AM; THE SINGAPORE government has become another player in the escalating debate between cane growers and sugar marketing giant Wilmar. Two codes of conduct, which would ensure growers have a choice in cane marketing and would retain existing market arrangements, are making their way through parliament. This followed Wilmar's announcement they planned to exit current sugar marketing arrangements during 2016. But a Wilmar executive general manager Shayne Rutherford said the proposed codes of conduct had prompted the company to raise concerns with the Singapore government. "We have raised our concerns about the expropriation of our manufactured sugar with both the Australian and Singapore governments," Mr Rutherford said. "Why would anyone want to invest in an Australian manufacturing or processing business if it doesn't own and control the product it makes?" He said the codes would likely breach free trade agreement obligations. http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/debate-on-sugar-marketing-escalates/2677141/

Farmers prepare to fight Asian tycoon over sugar marketing   Glen Norris  The Courier-Mail  June 15, 2015 11:43AM  The tranquil green fields of Australia’s biggest sugar growing district have become the focus of a battle between cane farmers and one of Asia’s richest men.  At stake farmers say is how they will be paid for their crop by mills owned by Robert Kuok’s giant Wilmar Sugar when new marketing arrangements are introduced in 2017. The escalating conflict comes as the Federal Government considers a mandatory code for the sugar industry that would give farmers greater rights to dispute contracts with millers. Wilmar and other foreign millers last year announced they would pull out of a long-standing arrangement whereby most sugar was marketed through the not-for-profit Queensland Sugar Ltd (QSL) and deal directly with farmers. Fearing Wilmar will use its market power to push prices down, Burdekin farmers last year formed their own company to allow them to better negotiate with the huge agribusiness that owns eight mills in central and north Queensland. http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/farmers-prepare-to-fight-asian-tycoon-over-sugar-marketing/story-fnihsps3-1227397738610

Wilmar calls up boats for almost all record ICE sugar delivery; Jun 25, 20157:23 PM [SINGAPORE] Wilmar International Ltd said it has booked for shipment almost all the 1.9 million tonnes of sugar it scooped up two months ago in the biggest-ever exchange deal, even as traders fret about weak demand and low prices. The Singapore firm, one of the biggest merchants in the 180-million tonne sugar market, has booked spots on vessels for all but 100,000 tonnes of the US$550 million worth of sugar it bought when the May contract expired. Wilmar expects to call on sellers to load the remaining tonnage this week, the company said in an emailed statement. After months of uncertainty about the pace of the shipments from Brazil and Central and South American growers, the news may help restore some calm to the sweetener market. Prices languish near 6-1/2-year lows as the market struggles through a fifth straight surplus year.  http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/wilmar-calls-up-boats-for-almost-all-record-ice-sugar-delivery

Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd appoints nominee directors of Wilmar Sugar Holdings Pte Ltd. Posted On: 2015-06-24 11:14:07  The Board of Directors of Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd at its meeting held on June 24, 2015, approved the appointment of Mr. Jean-Luc Bohbot and Mr. AtuI Chaturvedi as Nominee Directors of Wilmar Sugar Holdings Pte Ltd., w.e.f. June 24, 2015. http://www.equitybulls.com/admin/news2006/news_det.asp?id=162145

FGV Trading targets RM6-8 billion revenue this year Published: 19 June 2015 5:01 PM  Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV)'s wholly owned subsidiary, FGV Trading, is targeting revenue of between RM6 billion and RM8 billion this year. FGV’s transformation plan, which channeled its oil trading activities through FGV Trading, showed impressive growth with a revenue of RM2.5 billion in just four months of its trading operations since February, said a statement. Head of trading & marketing and logistics (TML) cluster Datuk Khairil Anuar Aziz said FGV Trading would become the second largest contributor to the group's revenue, at 34 %. "So far, FGV Trading has traded 1.3 million tonnes of crude palm oil (CPO) and this is a good achievement for a new company," he said. He added that FGV Trading aimed to trade 4.7 million tonnes of CPO, 60% from internal CPO, while the rest will be from external sources. FGV Trading, which is now headed by chief executive officer Datuk Wira Adam, also planned to explore the potential of other high-value vegetables oils, for example coconut oil from the Philippines for the international market. Its traditional market included China, Japan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, as well as, the Indo-China region such as Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, the statement said, adding that it was also involved in the premium market for countries in Europe. In line with FGV’s land bank expansion and increase in CPO production, FGV Trading is also eyeing new markets among the countries of West Asia, the Mediterranean, North Africa, Eastern Europe and the Balkan regions. http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/fgv-trading-targets-rm6-8-billion-revenue-this-year#sthash.8EBTWx99.dpbs

Indonesia's Rajawali to maintain 2.55% stake in Felda Global Ventures By: IZWAN IDRIS, SHARIDAN M. ALI Friday, 26 June 2015 PETALING JAYA: The Rajawali Group has no immediate plans to seek a bigger stake in Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), even as the two companies plan to complete a deal by August....http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/06/26/Rajawali-to-maintain-255-stake-in-FGV/?style=biz 

UPDATE 2-Rajawali wants bigger Felda stake if Felda sees control of Eagle High By Cindy Silviana and Eveline Danubrata Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:05am EDT  * Felda's offer for 37 pct of Eagle High is too high-analysts * Felda shares down over 6 pct after announcing offer * Five bidders for Rajawali stake in Nusantara Infrastructure (Adds no comment from Felda, clarifies that Felda is the world's third biggest palm oil plantation operator) JAKARTA, June 25 (Reuters) - Indonesia's Rajawali Group said on Thursday it would like to hold at least 21 percent of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd if the Malaysian firm decides to seek a controlling stake in Rajawali unit PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/25/eagle-high-plnt-rajawali-idUSL3N0ZB2LS20150625

Felda Global Venture’s Indonesian deal a bailout for Najib crony, say bankers BY LESLIE LOPEZ Published: 19 June 2015 9:00 AM; State-controlled Felda Global Ventures Bhd, Malaysia’s largest listed plantation company, is touting its US$746 million (RM2.8 billion) purchase of a clutch of plantation and sugar assets owned by Indonesian tycoon Tan Sri Peter Sondakh as a demonstration of economic integration among the 10-member Asean. But portfolio investors and bankers are panning the acquisition, arguing that the deal is hugely expensive for Felda and smacks of a bailout for the Sondakh, who enjoys close ties to Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak. Coming on the heels of the widening furore surrounding debt-laden sovereign fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), the deal is raising serious corporate governance concerns over the management of so-called government-linked companies which dominate the Malaysian economy and use of public funds.... The deal, which will be financed through borrowings and internal reserves of Felda, will largely wipe out its cash reserves, which currently amount to RM2.87 billion (US$768 million)..... Sondakh’s Rajawali Group, on the other hand, is getting a sweetheart deal. Despite paying such a huge premium for its 37% equity interest in Eagle High, Felda will not gain management control of the company. The Rajawali group, with a reduced stake of 31.6%, will continue to run the company. The Sondakh-controlled group will also receive an immediate deposit payment of US$174 million, or roughly 23% of the total acquisition price, from Felda even before the completion of due diligence on the assets and cross-border regulatory approvals are obtained for the transaction. Bankers and investment analysts in Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur say that the deal will provide a crucial financial lifeline to Sondakh, who has been struggling with his creditors to service debt obligations after an aggressive expansion into plantations and mining backfired following the collapse of commodity prices..... http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/felda-global-ventures-indonesian-deal-a-bailout-for-najib-crony-say-bankers#sthash.oMF5CxbR.dpbs

One of Indonesia’s Richest Men Is Bullish on Commodity Processing  Jun 26, 2015; As the head of one of Indonesia’s largest investment companies, Peter Sondakh knows to follow market trends. It’s the reason he took up smoking cigars last year, he says, beneath the whir of air purifiers in his office. It’s also, he says, partly why he’s selling off stakes in his palm oil plantation – Indonesia’s third largest – in the hope of moving toward processing, refining and trading at a time when slumping commodity prices and weakened demand for raw materials from China have dented the economy. “I pride myself in adding value,” said Mr. Sondakh, whose PT Rajawali Corp. is one of Indonesia’s biggest conglomerates with investments in mining, property, plantations and media. “Added value products will have more profit.”... The need seems all the more urgent now that consumer spending, which makes up more than half of the country’s GDP, is dropping off. Mr. Sondakh says he’s concerned by the slump in consumption. Rajawali plans to divest shares in one of the country’s largest taxi operators, PT Express Transindo Utama, and focus on its core business sectors – mining, plantations and property.... Since Mr. Sondakh founded Rajawali in the 1980s, he’s earned a reputation for turning around ailing companies. He has also become one of Indonesia’s richest men; Forbes estimated his net worth this year at $2.3 billion. In the early 1990s Mr. Sondakh bought a bankrupt cigarette company, PT Bentoel Investama, and later sold his majority stake to British American Tobacco for $494 million. He bought cement producer Semen Gresik (now Semen Indonesia) for just $336.7 million, eventually selling it to the government in an equity transaction that raised $1.08 billion... http://blogs.wsj.com/indonesiarealtime/2015/06/26/one-of-indonesias-richest-men-is-bullish-on-commodity-processing/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=WSJ_SEA_Blog

Malaysia's Felda Global to raise funds to buy stake in Eagle High KUALA LUMPUR, June 16  http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/16/malaysia-felda-eagle-high-plnt-idUSL3N0Z22OE20150616

Felda buy in Indonesian company above market rate, says veteran newsman Published: 14 June 2015 9:34 AM  http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/felda-buy-in-indonesian-company-above-market-rate-says-veteran-newsman#sthash.dHvRD8QU.dpbs
Palm oil giants to investigate company found razing Papuan rainforest; Mongabay.com Monday 22 June 2015; Agribusiness giants Cargill and Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) are pledging to investigate a palm oil supplier after an Indonesian environmental group presented evidence of rainforest clearing in New Guinea. On Thursday, Greenomics-Indonesia released a report documenting destruction of forests in South Sorong, a regency in West Papua, Indonesian New Guinea. Greenomics found that PT Varia Mitra Andalan (VMA), a subsidiary of publicly-listed PT Eagle High Plantations Tbk, continued to clear high carbon stock forests through March 2015, potentially putting it in breach of sustainability commitments established last year by Cargill and GAR. Both companies buy significant volumes of product from Eagle High Plantations, according to public disclosures.  The findings led Greenomics to call on the companies to respect their “deforestation-free” sourcing policies. Both companies are signatories of the Indonesian Palm Oil Pledge (IPOP), a corporate commitment to eliminate deforestation from supply chains... http://www.eco-business.com/news/palm-oil-giants-to-investigate-company-found-razing-papuan-rainforest/

Here Are 5 Of Singapore’s Cheapest Blue Chip Shares By Chong Ser Jing - June 26, 2015; There are many ways to value a stock and one popular method is to focus on its book value. The book value of a company is the cash that can theoretically be returned to its shareholders after the firm liquidates all its assets and settles all its obligations. Mathematically, the book value’s given in the formula below:
Book value = Total assets – Total liabilities. Companies with a price-to-book ratio of below 1 are selling for lower than their book values and investors who are able to buy such shares are therefore getting their hands on a potential bargain. With this in mind, the quintet of Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (SGX: E5H), Noble Group Limited (SGX: N21), Hongkong Land Holdings Limited (SGX: H78), Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited (SGX: J37), and CapitaLand Limited (SGX: C31) might rightfully be called Singapore’s cheapest blue chips; they have the lowest PB ratios (see table below) amongst the 30 constituents of Singapore’s market barometer, the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI).http://www.fool.sg/2015/06/26/here-are-5-of-singapores-cheapest-blue-chip-shares/

Heng Huat Resources invests RM35m to expand in Kelantan  Thursday, 25 June 2015; KUALA LUMPUR: Heng Huat Resources Group Bhd is investing RM35mil to expand its operations in Gua Musang, Kelantan to process oil palm empty fruit bunch (EFB) fibre. It said on Thursday the new plant would enable the group to meet the rising demand from China and also export to new markets in Australia, South Korea and Japan. Managing director H’ng Choon Seng said the new plant would source the  raw material from palm oil mills in Kelantan which could provide a sustainable supply of EFB. Of the RM35mil, it would use RM11mil to purchase the land and build the factory, RM12mil for the machinery and RM2mil for vehicles and equipment. The remaining RM10mil would be for a biomass co-generation power plant which would enable the it to reduce its operating costs through better energy-efficiency and re-utilisation of production waste materials. The capital expenditure would be from bank borrowings and its own funds. Heng Huat currently has two oil palm EFB fibre factories in Seberang Perai, Penang.  The new plant in Gua Musang would increase its total oil palm EFB fibre production lines from 20 lines to 27 lines and annual production capacity rising from 100,500 tonnes to more than 135,000 tonnes. The new manufacturing facility is targeted to be operational in the second quarter of 2016. H’ng explained Heng Huat had been expanding its fibre exports to China and the expansion is timely as its plants are now running at 90% capacity.http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/06/25/Heng-Huat-Resources-invests-RM35m-to-expand-in-Kelantan/?style=biz

BLD strives to keep costs low in midst of challenging outlook by Ronnie Teo, June 18, 2015, Thursday; KUCHING: BLD Plantation Bhd (BLD) aims to keep its costs low amidst a challenging outlook for the palm oil industry as crude palm oil (CPO) prices remain lacklustre. According to executive chairman Datuk Henry Lau, global demand for palm oil and its related products have not been as encouraging as expected. This was on the back of increasing costs of operations including minimum wages, goods and services which Lau said were generally on the uptrend....
http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/06/18/bld-strives-to-keep-costs-low-in-midst-of-challenging-outlook/#ixzz3eEjldKaa

Ta Ann enters into JV for oil palm projects Posted on 23 June 2015 - 05:40am PETALING JAYA: Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, which lost a legal battle to native owners in Sarawak over customary land last year, is making a second attempt at expanding its palm oil landbank in the state via a joint venture (JV). Ta Ann's plans to collaborate with the Sarawak state government and Native Customary Rights (NCR) owners to implement oil palm development projects spread over 28,195 ha in the state. Ta Ann's unit, Ta Ann Plantation Sdn Bhd (TAP), yesterday entered into two JV agreements with Pelita Holdings Sdn Bhd (PHSB), the trustee to the NCR owner, to develop 17,017 ha in Sibu and 11,178 ha in Kapit. In a Bursa Malaysia announcement yesterday, Ta Ann said the projects are "replacement" projects for the failed project entered into in Sept 28, 2012 between TAP and PHSB with the land owners owners at Matu-Daro, Mukah division; Tambirat-Asajaya, Kota Samarahan division; and Sebuyau Sebangan, Kota Samarahan division, all in Sarawak http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1468216
Indonesia's PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, one of the world's biggest instant noodle makers, plans to invest $150 million to build a sugar processing facility in eastern Indonesia, Kontan reported on Thursday. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3119358/INDONESIA-PRESS-Indofood-plans-invest-150-mln-sugar-factory-Kontan.html#ixzz3eFnEKjtS

Govt prepares areas for sugar, cattle investors Grace D. Amianti, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Thu, June 18 2015, 9:01 AM; The 26 investors who expressed a keen interest in entering the country’s sugar industry consisted of 11 refined sugar producers and 15 sugarcane plantation companies, Franky said. “There are also around two to three Japanese investors who are interested in investing in the sugar industry. However, most of the time, in the sugar sector, foreign direct investors choose to first collaborate with their local partners in joint-venture companies,” Franky said. According to his ministry’s calculations, Amran said, a sugar refinery with a capacity to process 10,000 tons of sugarcane per day would cost about Rp 5 trillion (US$374.4 million) to build. The Agriculture Ministry has also run the plan by the Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya, who agreed that the land in the three regions would be able to support the industry, Amran added. “We are planning to allocate 500,000 hectares of land in the three regions, calculating that one mill with a plantation will need at least 50,000 ha of land,” Amran said. Aside from the sugar industry, Amran said at least nine foreign and domestic investors also showed an interest in investing in Indonesia’s cattle sector, which would be located in regions such as East and West Nusa Tenggara, Buru Island in Maluku and East Kalimantan. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/06/18/govt-prepares-areas-sugar-cattle-investors.html#sthash.4FmMcn1F.dpuf

What are the Top Five Brands Bought by Indonesian Consumers? 08 June 2015 The five top brands that are purchased most often by Indonesian households are Indomie, Mie Sedaap, Royco, So Klin and Frisian Flag. This is the result of research conducted by Kantar Worldpanel (KW), a global research firm that investigates consumers' purchasing behaviour. Fabrice Carrasco, KW’s Managing Director for Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, wrote in a statement received on Monday that more than 90 percent of Indonesian households buy the five above-mentioned brands. http://www.indonesia-investments.com/news/todays-headlines/what-are-the-top-five-brands-bought-by-indonesian-consumers/item5629

25 June 2015: UOBKH: Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK) - Plans For Its Indonesian Partnership, Sawit Sumbermas seeks Rp 3t/US$226 mill for refinancing, expansion - Jakarta Post

Sawit Sumbermas seeks Rp 3t for refinancing, expansion The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Wed, June 24 2015, 9:46 AM; Publicly listed palm oil company Sawit Sumbermas Sarana is looking for Rp 3 trillion (US$226 million) in loans to refinance its debts and expand production, a company executive has said.Around Rp 2.36 trillion will come from syndicated loans from the country’s largest lender Bank Mandiri, while the remaining Rp 730 billion will come from state-owned financing agency Indonesia Eximbank.The company will use half of the total loans to refinance its debts to Bank Mandiri, worth Rp 1.3 trillion, and to Indonesia Eximbank, worth Rp 700 billion.Another Rp 1.5 trillion will be spent on the company’s capital expenditure to boost its production performance in both the upstream and downstream sectors, including to fund a new acquisition.“We need to take out loans as we have to maintain our cash,” finance director Harry M. Nadir said in Jakarta on Tuesday, adding that the company — which will offer its land-use permit (HGU), including land assets, as a guarantee — expected the five-year loans to be secured early in the second semester.Sawit Sumbermas spent around Rp 1.5 trillion to acquire PT Tanjung Sawit Abadi (TSA) and PT Sawit Multi Utama (SMU) in February, in an attempt to increase production capacity. - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/06/24/sawit-sumbermas-seeks-rp-3t-refinancing-expansion.html#sthash.DOiQ7PJQ.dpuf

UOBKH: Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK) - Plans For Its Indonesian Partnership, Thursday, 25 June 2015; FGV clarified concern over its partnership with Rajawali Group in Eagle High Plantation. Key messages are it is: a) penetrating large greenfield and brownfield developments, b) buying the sugar plantation to gain exposure to the lucrative sugar business, and c) exploring further in the downstream and consumer segments with Rajawali. FGV reported EV of US$17,400 per planted hectare, which excludes the valuation of the unplanted 267,000ha landbank..... FGV’s justification for the high valuation of the acquisition. FGV indicated that the acquisition price is fair and derived using a DCF method assuming long-term CPO price of RM2,900/tonne and discount rate of 9%. The valuation is lower than that for the acquisitions in the past three years, and slightly below the US$17,700/ha transacted in the land disposal by Tabung Haji in 2012. Also, this acquisition is expected to be earnings accretive by 2018 when more of BWPT’s planted hectarage move into young prime areas. .... Happy with a 37% stake for now. While FGV has no intention to do a mandatory general offer (GO) to increase its stake in BWPT, it may raise its stake in the future to consolidate BWPT into FGV. If FGV were to do a GO now, it would need to fork out
another U$1,833m, which we think is difficult for FGV, given its high gearing post the 37%
stake acquisition.....


23 June 2015: Ta Ann new NCR JV for 60% stake in 17,000 ha (60% plantable; Sibu and Kapit area) replaces 2012 agreements revoked for lack of land owners' interest; BLD questioned over "no deforestation, no peatland" policy; Palm oil a matter of national security for Malaysia (especially for smallholder interests) - opinion - /khorreports-palmoil/2014/11/rspo-meeting-sabah-considering-100.html

22 June 2015: FGV falls 3.4% after defending Eagle High acquisition - The Edge; an argument for the deal - it's strategic partnership to benefit smallholders and other stakeholders?

FGV falls 3.4% after defending Eagle High acquisition by Ahmad Naqib Idris / theedgemarkets.com, 22 June 2015; http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/fgv-falls-34-after-defending-eagle-high-acquisition?google_editors_picks=true

FGV-EHP partnership: a way forward to prosperity for two nations – HS Dillon Published: 20 June 2015 12:49 PM; The recent press statements reporting that Felda Global Ventures (FGV) intends to buy a substantial stake in EHP, and the ensuing debate, revive old memories. It is indeed remarkable that what had been my dream as a senior official of Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture, thwarted by vested-interests nearly quarter of a century ago, is now being promoted by visionary entrepreneurs.
Obsessed with creating greater equality in rural Indonesia, I gladly welcomed my appointment as Head of The Team for Restructuring State-owned Plantations in 1993. Due to strong support from the then very honest minister of finance, Marie Muhammad, we managed to consolidate the previous 26 separate corporate entities into nine plantation groups. Talking to the press after the brief meeting, the PM stated that Malaysia, facing land constraints, had no other option but to invest in oil-palm plantations in Indonesia. We then started to explore avenues for cooperation with senior Malaysian officials, including private placement into our state plantations. With the best Malaysian plantation management practices, utilising state-of-the-art technology, and good corporate governance, we could have launched an IPO within five to six years after entering into such a partnership. Therein, the Malaysian investors would have reaped relatively quick yields, and our state-owned plantations would have ranked among the best. Of course, the powers that be in Indonesia, gleaning rents from the status quo, did not allow this to materialise; but that is a different story.... Most of the current exchange has revolved around whether the Heads of Agreement signed last week by the two parties is commercially sound, in the narrow sense of generating immediate profits for their shareholders....But that which has been omitted from the exchange is what interests me the most: the smallholders and other stakeholders. This is more than just another B2B deal, it is a People-Private Partnership on both sides. Most observers apparently are not aware of the genesis of FGV, and do not realise that more than a 100,000 members of Felda are shareholders. Around 60 years ago, former prime minister Tunku Abdul Rahman decided to launch a massive initiative to help poor rural households climb out of poverty, who at point were not very different from their Indonesian cousins.....Education and rural infrastructure managed to lay the foundations of a productive middle-class. Now the descendants of the erstwhile poor Malaysian smallholders have become bosses, with oil-palm holdings being tended by the progeny of the still poor rural Indonesian households. Indeed, by overcoming rent and wage barriers to expansion, this FGV-EHP partnership should enable Felda members to continue earning handsome returns, but around the same number of Indonesian smallholders already partnering with EHP in contract-farming schemes, also stand to benefit.....FGV institutional memory would be better suited to striking rapport with rural Papuan households, for instance, than the colonial institutional memory inherited by a number of Indonesian plantation managers.....What would be the repercussions, or what economists call second-round effects? Other Indonesian plantation groups might enter into such partnerships to remain competitive... http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sideviews/article/fgv-ehp-partnership-a-way-forward-to-prosperity-for-two-nations-hs-dillon#sthash.mGSAlewo.dpbs



The Edge articles:

21 June 2015: Genting Plantations in WSJ article on ties with 1MDB and politics

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fund-controversy-threatens-malaysias-leader-1434681241?mod=djem10point


20 June 2015: Rajawali and FGV talk of rationale for investment plan

Rajawali to adopt Felda’s technology for business expansion Anggi M. Lubis, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Thu, June 18 2015, 9:26 AM; Industrial conglomerate PT Rajawali Corpora says it plans to strengthen its downstream palm oil business by adopting technology from a Malaysian company that recently bought its shares in local oil palm company PT Eagle High Plantation (EHP).Rajawali Corpora managing director Darjoto Setyawan said Rajawali had no plan to fully divest its ownership in the palm oil plantation after releasing 37 percent of total 68.5 percent stakes it had to Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), the world’s largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer.According to Darjoto, Rajawali is instead looking to enhance its business using cutting-edge technology it hopes to adopt from FGV.Rajawali and Felda signed the deal last week in a ceremony attended by Coordinating Economic Minister Sofjan Djalil and Malaysia’s International Trade and Industry Minister, Dato Sri Mustapa Mohamed - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/06/18/rajawali-adopt-felda-s-technology-business-expansion.html#sthash.F98ZGm1b.dpuf

FGV eyes EHP acquisition in bid to further palm oil interests Friday June 19, 201509:55 PM GMT+8 - KUALA LUMPUR, June 19 — Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) today clarified that its proposed investment in PT Eagle High Plantations (EHP) is in line with its plan to become a world leading integrated palm oil plantation company. “The proposed investment would increase landbank, improve age profile of crops, cost optimisation and provide strategic long-term partnership, with a conglomerate in Indonesia,” FGV said in a statement today.  FGV refers to article “EPF hopes FGV will address valuation concern on PT Eagle High” as reported by Bernama on Wednesday, questioning the rationale for the US$680 million, or RM2.55 billion, proposed acquisition of EHP from Rajawali Group which has been regarded as too expensive by analysts.  The partnership, FGV said, would also provide access to Asean’s largest single market, allowing FGV to gain a foothold in a key palm oil supply market.  FGV said it was important to note that the proposal implied equity value /hectare (ha) for the planted hectarage of Rajawali at approximately US$17,400, which was lower than the recent reported transactions involving Sime Darby Bhd’s acquisition of New Britain Palm Oil Ltd (US$25,900) and IOI Corp Bhd’s takeover of Unico-Desa Plantations (US$23,500).
In comparing with recent Indonesian transactions, hectarages involved were small in nature, of less than 70,000 ha, said FGV. From a corporate perspective, FGV said, this deal presented it with a great opportunity as part of its expansion plan. EHP owns 425,000 ha, with 67 per cent in Kalimantan.—Bernama - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/fgv-eyes-ehp-acquisition-in-bid-to-further-palm-oil-interests#sthash.44syMEwC.dpuf

16 June 2015: FGV - Eagle High deal - The Edge reports 23% down payment prior to S&P agreement and Peter Sondakh / Rajawali cash raising and strategic deal witnessed by Sofyan Djalil (Econ Coordinating Minister) and Malayisa MITI's Mustapa Mohamed - Jakarta Globe

Rajawali Piles Up Cash, Gets Ready for More Acquisitions By Vanesha Manuturi on 05:08 pm Jun 14, 2015.... The venture would mark Rajawali’s second sale this year as the group works to focus on its other core businesses: property and mining.... Peter (Sondakh) built his reputation by buying then selling companies with a hefty profit in the past decade. The conglomerate’s most lucrative deals include the sale of Bentoel International Investama for $494 million in 2009 to British American Tobacco. In 2010, Rajawali sold $1 billion worth of shares in Semen Gresik, which it bought from Mexican cement maker Cemex for $337 million in 2006.....The business conglomerate — whose businesses range from palm oil, property to mining — signed an agreement with executives from Felda Global Venture on Friday, witnessed by Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Economy Sofyan Djalil and Malaysia’s Minister of International Trade and Industry Mustapa Mohamed.
The acquisition deal is expected to be completed by August, according to Darjoto. “This strategic partnership is a great collaborative example that is beneficial to both Indonesia and Malaysia,” Darjoto told reporters after the signing event in Jakarta on Friday.
http://thejakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/rajawali-piles-cash-gets-ready-acquisitions/


source: image of article header in The Edge Malaysia


15 June 2015: Analysts worry about FGV - Eagle High deal. FGV shares move down toward analyst lowered price outlooks.

AMBank: Felda Global: No earnings enhancement from Eagle High investment: We are downgrading Felda Global Ventures (FGV) ..... We have reduced FGV’s FY16F EPS by 6% to account for the dilutive impact of the US$680mil investment in 37% of Eagle High and US$67mil acquisition of 95% of Rajawali’s sugar assets.

CIMB: FGV has entered into a Heads of Agreement with Rajawali group to buy a 37% stake in PT Eagle High Plantations (EHP) and a 95% stake in its sugar assets for US$746m (RM2.8bn)...... (3) we estimate the acquisition could dilute its FY16 net profit by 10%; and (4) net gearing will rise to 1.43x from 1.05x and cashflow will be negatively impacted. ....Key potential de-rating catalysts are this proposal and earnings risk.


source: screenshots from Bloomberg.com

10 June 2015: Unilever Indonesia capex spend of up to $90 million per year

Unilever Sets Aside $90m for Indonesia Expansion By Vanesha Manuturi & Antonia Timmerman on 07:27 pm Jun 08, 2015; Home and personal care products make up 73 percent of Unilever Indonesia's sales, with food and refreshment products accounting for the remainder. (Antara Photo/Zabur Karuru)
Jakarta. Unilever Indonesia, one of the largest listed consumer goods producers in Indonesia, is setting aside Rp 1.2 trillion ($90 million) for investment this year as the firm foresees a continuing slowdown in consumer demand for the remainder of the year. “Our [capital expenditure] is set to range from about Rp 1 trillion to Rp 1.2 trillion. It’s around the same amount as what we invested last year. We still believe in Indonesia for the long-term,” Sancoyo Antarikso, corporate secretary at Unilever Indonesia, told a press conference in Jakarta on Monday. Much of the spending — funding for which will mostly be sought internally — is meant to increase the company’s plant capacity, improve distribution networks, as well as adding more ice cream cabinets in stores across Indonesia, Sancoyo explained. First established in 1933, Unilever Indonesia, the local arm of British-Dutch multinational consumer goods company Unilever, is among a slew of publicly-listed companies in Indonesia that have announced less-than-ambitious expansion plans this year amid a weak local currency and a nationwide economic slowdown. Indonesia, where household spending accounts for some 56 percent of the economy, grew 4.7 percent between January and March — its slowest pace of growth in five years. Meanwhile, the rupiah has depreciated by nearly 6 percent against the US dollar so far this year, data from the central bank showed.
http://thejakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/unilever-sets-aside-90-million-indonesia-expansion/

8 June 2015:  APRIL promises stop harvesting of natural forest; FGV price fall questions; Wilmar news items - in spite of new moves, more criticisms; supplier issues highlight by FPP and Australia sugar tussles, GAR in Liberia and Moody's spotlight, Sime Darby credit rating cut

Deforestation, exploitation, hypocrisy: no end to Wilmar's palm oil land grabs Anne van Schaik & Godwin Ojo 27th May 2015 With the deadline due this year for the full implementation of Wilmar's 'No peat, no deforestation, no exploitation' promise, the oil palm giant is keen to push its green image in Europe. But for communities suffering its land grabs in Nigeria, nothing has changed. While Wilmar spins green rhetoric, its bulldozers are still destroying vast swathes of forest and farmland.
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2879965/deforestation_exploitation_hypocrisy_no_end_to_wilmars_palm_oil_land_grabs.html

Ghosts of problems past and present loom over Nigerian palm oil plans  by Mongabay.com A youth leader who lives near one of Wilmar's Nigerian oil palm projects shows an alternative water hole the community has dug as a result of the ...http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0528-norman-nigeria-palm-oil.htm

GAR, Wilmar punish palm oil supplier for clearing rainforest in New Guinea  Mongabay.com Wilmar, another palm oil titan, put its business with the company, Austindo Nusantara Jaya (ANJ) Agri, on hold in April, though it waited nine months ... http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0528-jacobson-anj-gar-wilmar-greenomics.html
Golden Agri's Liberia unit under sustainability fire by Chan Yi Wen The Business TimesTuesday, Jun 02, 2015 Last week's violent demonstrations at Golden Veroleum Liberia's (GVL) plantations in south-east Liberia came after recent criticisms levelled at GVL, and its lead investor Singapore-listed palm oil giant Golden Agri-Resources, for its efforts (or lack thereof) at sustainability. The blow-ups at GVL's plantations last Tuesday were started by a local group with specific grievances, which included the desire for more jobs to be made available to the community, GVL said on its website.
GVL's narrative runs contrary to a Reuters report that had speculated the riots were sparked by the Forest Peoples Programme (FPP), a group campaigning for the rights of indigenous people.
In April, FPP had accused GVL of taking land without community consent. - See more at: http://business.asiaone.com/news/golden-agris-liberia-unit-under-sustainability-fire#sthash.Ljmgw2Uz.dpuf

Rating Action: Moody's changes Golden Agri-Resources' outlook to negative; affirms Ba2 Global Credit Research - 03 Jun 2015  Singapore, June 03, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has changed to negative from stable the outlook for Golden Agri-Resources Ltd ("GAR").  At the same time, Moody's has affirmed GAR's Ba2 corporate family rating. The outlook change reflects the continued deterioration in GAR's credit metrics, arising in turn from falling palm oil prices and weak returns from its heavy investment in downstream activities.  Accordingly, leverage has risen, with debt/EBITDA rising to 5.7x for the financial year ended 31 December 2014 from 2.4x in the year ended 31 December 2012.  At the same time, liquidity has tightened, with short-term debt totaling $1.72 billion as of 31 March 2015, including the likely put of its $400 million convertible bond on 4 October 2015. However, since March, GAR has issued SGD200 milllion of notes due 2018.
"From being strongly positioned for its rating range in late 2012, GAR's credit metrics have deteriorated steadily," says Alan Greene, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-Golden-Agri-Resources-outlook-to-negative-affirms-Ba2--PR_326179

Palm oil regulator asked to investigate illegal land grabs by Wilmar Group supplier in Borneo News Date: 2nd June 2015 Borneo human rights organization files complaint alleging multiple breaches of RSPO standards by palm oil supplier PT. Swadaya Mukti Prakarsa / First Resources. By FPP. http://www.businessghana.com/portal/news/index.php?op=getNews&news_cat_id=&id=204579

'Trust, transparency and more power to growers' only way forward for divided sugar industry: new sugar chief by ABC Rural  By Charlie McKillop   Updated Thu at 8:34am  Queensland's peak sugar body has admitted it is no closer to reaching a compromise on marketing, despite renewed efforts to reopen negotiations with milling companies. After months of stalled negotiations, Canegrowers will meet with Australia's largest sugar milling company, Wilmar, in three weeks to discuss the preferred models being put forward by both parties.  Head of the State Government's sugar industry taskforce, George Christensen, also accused the Singaporean sugar giant of refusing to 'budge' on its initial position that would take growers' economic share out of the longstanding sugar pool.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-04/nrn-new-canegrowers-boss-says-sugar-marketing-his-biggest-prior/6521952

Sugar code of conduct delayed but still on track to break sugar marketing deadlock: MP ABC Rural  Charlie McKillopUpdated Thu at 8:24am Cane growers have been told they will have to wait until the end of this month to hear from the federal taskforce set up to consider a sugar industry code of conduct. The head of the taskforce, George Christensen MP, said there had been a slight delay in the final report due to a flood of late submissions.  Audio: George Christensen says a sugar code of conduct will find a fairer way forward for growers against 'monopoly' millers (ABC Rural)
His comments come as the Federal Government announced a review of the code of conduct for the horticulture industry, a move widely welcomed by fruit and vegetable growers who say it has not met expectations. Mr Christensen said it highlighted the importance of the taskforce taking its time to "get it right" for the sugar industry. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-03/sugar-code-of-conduct-delayed-but-still-on-track/6519386

Felda settler group rejects explanation on share price plunge BY SHERIDAN MAHAVERA Published: 31 May 2015 3:42 PM; Felda settlers have rejected Felda Global Ventures Holdings Berhad’s (FGVH) explanation that the fall in share prices and the company’s poor performance were partly due to severe floods late last year which affected its plantation operations. National Felda Settlers' Children's Association (Anak), a group that represents settlers and their families, is also worried about blowback from the plunge in share prices, which have fallen by more than 50% since it was listed three years ago. Anak president Mazlan Aliman said the severe flooding occurred in Kelantan, which does not have much oil palm plantation. googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1400601790726-3');}); "The severe flooding happened in Kelantan, how many FGVH plantations are there in Kelantan?” Mazlan asked. According to FGVH’s website, its largest plantations in Malaysia are located in Pahang and Sabah. “The floods in Pahang were not as bad. I do not buy the explanation. I think it’s just an excuse for the company’s poor business decisions,” he told The Malaysian Insider when contacted. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/felda-settler-group-rejects-explanation-on-share-price-plunge#sthash.9OSG7YDJ.dpuf

Conservationists press Jakarta to follow industry lead on forests Nicholas Perry, Associated Press, Jakarta | World | Sun, June 07 2015, 11:40 AM - See more at: Conservationists are urging the Indonesian government to listen to business and start taking deforestation seriously after a major paper giant joined the growing ranks of companies pledging to stop clearing forests. Asia Pacific Resources International Holdings Ltd (APRIL), the second largest pulp and paper company in Indonesia, announced this week it had stopped harvesting natural forest in a move hailed by its former critic Greenpeace as a "major breakthrough". Indonesia has some of the world's most extensive and biodiverse rainforests, but huge swathes have been chopped down by palm oil, mining and timber companies. As a result, Southeast Asia's top economy has become the world's third-biggest carbon emitter. APRIL and its major rival Asia Pulp and Paper (APP), which together produce 80 percent of Indonesia's pulp products, have been accused of destroying vast tranches of the forests that are home to endangered species such as Sumatran orangutans and tigers. APRIL had only last year committed to phasing out deforestation in its supply chain by 2020, following APP's promise in 2013 to stop using any logs from Indonesia's natural forests in its mills. But in what APRIL's group president Praveen Singhavi called a major step in their "sustainability journey", the company ceased forest clearing in May and promised no new developments on Indonesian forest or peat land. - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/06/07/conservationists-press-jakarta-follow-industry-lead-forests.html#sthash.wuGTCB9g.dpuf


Standard & Poor lowers Sime Darby credit rating 29 May 2015 @ 12:18 PM KUALA LUMPUR: Standard &Poor’s has lowered the credit rating on Sime Darby Bhd from A to negative outlook at A-.
The conglomerate’s acquisition of the palm oil plantation in Papua New Guinea New Britain Palm Oil Ltd (NBPOL), weaker operating cash flows and a weaker ringgit which have raised the company’s debt level were the reasons cited. "We lowered the ratings because of likely delays and amendments in the implementation of Sime Darby's deleveraging plan that could offset the impact of higher debt from the acquisition of NBPOL,” said S&P’s credit analyst Bertrand Jabouley.
http://www.nst.com.my/node/86104

28 May 2015: KLK buying Emery Germany oleochemical assets; slew of corporate results for Malaysia include Genting Plantations, TH Plantations, FGV, MSM, Hap Seng, TSH Resources, KLK, IOI etc.

KLK buying Sime Darby's Germany oleochemical assets By Chong Jin Hun / theedgemarkets.com   | May 27, 2015 : 1:22 PM MYT     KUALA LUMPUR (May 27): Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK) (http://edgemarkets-fl.s3.amazonaws.com/img/stock.png Financial Dashboard) is buying Emery Oleochemical GmbH's assets in Germany in an all cash Euro 40.5 million (RM162 million) deal. Emery is a unit under Sime Darby Bhd (http://edgemarkets-fl.s3.amazonaws.com/img/stock.png Financial Dashboard) (fundamental: 0.8; valuation: 1.4). In a statement to Bursa Malaysia today, KLK (fundamental: 1; valuation: 1.1) said it had signed a conditional asset purchase agreement to buy Emery's plant, tangible assets and inventories. KLK said the transaction would enable the company to "diversify into the tallow-based market". Tallow is a substance derived from animal fat. KLK said the acquisition would also complement its existing fatty acid and glycerine business. KLK said the transaction was scheduled for completion by the third quarter of this year.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/klk-buying-sime-darbys-germany-oleochemical-assets

24 May 2015: Wilmar's 700,000 tonne sugar order - a substantial tonnage of sugar looking for a final home;  Sime Darby denies strike (its a go slow), results; TH Plantations sets RM 500 million revenue target; Equatorial Palm Oil, Praetorian, Benso Oil Palm

Wilmar nominated up to 700,000 T sugar on expiry so far-trade  Wed May 20, 2015 10:54am EDT By David Brough * Sugar finds homes in Morocco, Algeria, India, Malaysia * Market talk of some cancelled vessel nominations  LONDON, May 20 (Reuters) - Trading house Wilmar has nominated vessels to take some 600,000-700,000 tonnes of raw sugar so far from a record 1.9 million tonnes delivery against the ICE May expiry, trade sources said. Some trade sources said around 500,000 tonnes of further nominations had been withdrawn until a later date. That still leaves a substantial tonnage of sugar looking for a final home, they added. "The market was hoping they were missing something - that Wilmar has a big home for the sugar. But no one was missing anything," one London-based trade source said. A spokesman for Singapore-based Wilmar could not immediately be reached for comment. Trade sources said there was talk that Wilmar had nominated some vessels and later cancelled them in order to test whether those scheduled to deliver sugar had supplies available. European traders said they believed that Wilmar had taken sugar for end-destinations where it had access to refining capacity, such as Morocco, Algeria, India and Malaysia. "I would say at least 500,000 tonnes has been withdrawn for a later date," a European commodities trade source said. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/20/sugar-delivery-wilmar-idUSL5N0YB3YC20150520

Wilmar Intl Rating Lowered to Sell at Zacks (WLMIY) Posted by Seth Barnet on May 16th, 2015 // No Comments; Wilmar Intl l(NASDAQ:WLMIY) was downgraded by Zacks from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report issued on Friday. Zacks’ analyst wrote, “Wilmar International Limited is an agribusiness group. The Company captures the entire value chain of the agricultural commodity processing business, from origination and processing to the branding, merchandising and distribution of a wide range of agricultural products. Its business activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseeds crushing, edible oils refining, consumer pack edible oils processing and merchandising, specialty fats, oleochemicals and biodiesel manufacturing, and grains processing and merchandising. Wilmar International Limited is headquartered in Singapore, Singapore. “http://www.wkrb13.com/markets/604023/wilmar-intl-rating-lowered-to-sell-at-zacks-wlmiy/

Sime Darby denies strike (its a go slow) report  Published: Monday, 18 May 2015 02:10  The Management of  Sime Darby Plantation Liberia (SDPL) has clarified that there is no strike at its plantation contrary to report in the media. “What is happening is a “go slow” action, which means that employees are coming to work but mainly with a purpose of discussing work-related issues with the management”, a press release issued by the company on Sunday said. According to the release, every April the company in accordance with the Liberian tax regulation, deducts Vacation Leave Payment tax from pay-checks, which causes employees’ dissatisfaction, adding, “We are currently talking to the representatives of the workers’ union to explain the issue and resolve any misunderstanding.” Recently, an online news outlet, Global News Network Liberia, reported strike at China Union and Sime Darby Plantation Liberia. http://www.thenewdawnliberia.com/news/7388-sime-darby-denies-strike-report

Malaysia's Sime Darby Q3 net profit drops 54.7 pct y/y Industries  |  Fri May 22, 2015 12:48am EDT  May 22 Sime Darby Bhd, the world's biggest listed palm oil producer, announced on Friday a 54.7 percent drop in its third-quarter profit due to weak commodity prices. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/22/malaysia-sime-darby-bhd-results-idUSL3N0YC3DD20150522

Sime Darby sees palm oil at RM2,200-RM2,400 per tonne to year-end Published: 22 May 2015 4:50 PM Sime Darby expects palm oil prices to be between RM2,200 and RM2,400 per tonne. – The Malaysian Insider filepic, May 22, 2015. Palm oil prices will likely trade between RM2,200 and RM2,400 per tonne between now to the end of the year, said the chief executive of Malaysia's Sime Darby Bhd, the world's top oil palm planter by land size. That would be higher than the current Malaysian benchmark palm prices of RM2,136 (US$596.31). Sime Darby CEO Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh had in February forecast prices between RM2,300 and RM2,500 until June 2015. googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1400601790726-3');}); "If El Nino kicks in then the price could be higher. Otherwise, based on our readings of the markets, crop patterns, and production, it should support a RM2,200-RM2,400 price," Bakke said on Friday. He was speaking at a press conference after Sime Darby reported a 54.7% plunge in its third-quarter net profit partly due to depressed palm oil prices. Earnings for the current financial year are expected to come in at RM2-RM2.1 billion, short of a target of RM2.5 billion set earlier, Bakke said. Palm futures have shed more than 5% so far this year in the absence of a weather premium and due to bleak exports. Weak crude oil prices that make the tropical oil less attractive for blending into biofuels have also dragged on prices. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/sime-darby-sees-palm-oil-at-rm2200-rm2400-per-tonne-to-year-end#sthash.A81hnCqJ.dpuf

TH Plantations sets RM500m revenue target  Alexander Winifred Thursday, May 21, 2015 TH Plantations (THP) Bhd, the plantation arm of Lembaga Tabung Haji, is aiming to achieve a revenue of more RM500 million this year, driven by production inccrase from maturing plantations and its entry into the international markets. THP CEO Datuk Zainal Azwar Zainal Aminuddin said the company expects a 5% increase in revenue for 2015 compared to RM489 million recorded in 2014. "More plantations are coming into maturity in the near future and it will ensure steady revenue growth in the coming years," he said this at the company’s AGM in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.
Zainal says THP will also begin exploring the sale of its produce from its plantations in Sarawak to markets like China, India, and the Middle East.  "As long as they can give us a good price," he said. Presently, THP only sells its produce to the local market.  The group had embarked on an aggressive expansion plan that saw its plantation land increased to 106,000 hectares from 15,000 hectares in 2006.  For the final quarter of 2014, the group reported a net loss of RM2 million, dragging its full year profits to RM34 million, a 46% year-on-year drop in profits.  http://www.themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/th-plantations-sets-rm500m-revenue-target

Equatorial Palm Oil First-Half Loss Narrows As Ebola Hits Operations Mon, 18th May 2015 11:19 LONDON (Alliance News) - Equatorial Palm Oil PLC Monday said its pretax loss in the first half of the year was in line with expectations after the Ebola crisis had a significant impact on its operations but said it is still in a strong position to carry out its strategy. For the first half of the financial year ended March 31, the palm oil producer reported a pretax loss of USD439,000, which is narrower than the USD745,000 loss reported a year earlier as the company cut its administrative expenses to USD458,000 from USD628,000. Equatorial said the loss was "in line with expectations". Equatorial also made a smaller operating loss from its joint ventures of USD245,000 from USD323,000, whilst interest income rose to USD230,000 from USD206,000 and other income totalled USD34,000 from none a year earlier.The company does not yet generate any revenue and said the Ebola crisis had a "significant impact" on its operations in the period due to the restriction of movement in Liberia until March. The company noted that the country has now been declared Ebola-free.  ttp://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=s9sfb95t&headline=Equatorial_Palm_Oil_FirstHalf_Loss_Narrows_As_Ebola_Hits_Operations

Praetorian Resources shares soar as it offloads stake in palm oil firm  By Andrew Neil May 15 2015, 1:50pm Praetorian shares were up over 100% in early afternoon deals and trading at 5.8p. Praetorian shares were up over 100% in early afternoon deals and trading at 5.8p.  Shares in Praetorian Resources (LON:PRAE) doubled in value as the firm sold its entire stake in Equatorial Palm Oil (LON:EPO).
The Guernsey-based investment company offloaded its full holding for £637,500 in cash, higher than EPO’s book value of £552,000. The palm oil producer, which has plants in Liberia on the West African cost, had been part of Praetorian’s portfolio since the vehicle listed on AIM back in 2012. Praetorian, which also holds stakes in ASX-listed Ausgold and TSX listed Maya Gold & Silver, said the funds raised will be used to provide additional working capital for the company.
Shares were up over 100% in early afternoon deals and trading at 5.8p. http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/80407/praetorian-resources-shares-soar-as-it-offloads-stake-in-palm-oil-firm--80407.html

Benso Oil Palm Plantation makes profit Business News of Monday, 18 May 2015  The Benso Oil Palm Plantation Limited made a profit after tax of 12.9 million Ghana cedis in 2014 representing 112 per cent increase over that of 2013.  Mr Ishmael Yamson, the Chairman of Board of Directors, announced this at the Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the company at Takoradi.  He said a dividend of GH¢ 0.0706.00 per share was approved for 2012 compared to GH¢0.0334 for the previous year.  He said by the prudent operation of the management, the company had been declared the first certified sustainable oil palm plantation in Ghana and second in the whole of Africa by the Round Table Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), an international organisation based in Malaysia.
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/artikel.php?ID=358534




22 May 2015: Palm oil machinery maker Dolphin to use IPO proceeds for factory expansion and working capital 

Dolphin to use IPO proceeds for factory expansion and working capital  20 May 2015 @ 7:02 PM
KUALA LUMPUR: Dolphin International Bhd, headed for listing on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on June 9, will utilise more than 50 per cent of the RM31.28 million it expects to raise from its Initial Public Offering (IPO), for factory expansion and working capital. The rest will be for establishing a research and development facility and repay bank borrowings, said Group Managing Director Eric Low Teck Yin. He said the listing would place the company in a stronger position to tap into Malaysia and Indonesia’s huge palm oil milling machinery market.  There are over 439 mills in Malaysia and about 608 in Indonesia. Dolphin International is involved in the design, development, fabrication and sale of palm oil machinery. “We will concentrate on catering to the demand for process integration and automation solutions that enhance productivity, safety and efficiency, while improving our facilities in Shah Alam and Puchong as well as innovating new solutions for customers in both countries,” Low said. http://www.nst.com.my/node/84843

Dolphin International IPO prospectus: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4741721

21 May 2015: Sarawakian timber and palm oil groups unhappy about frozen accounts

Sarawakian timber and palm oil groups unhappy about frozen accounts Updated: Saturday May 16, 2015 MYT 12:25:05 PM; KUCHING: Timber and oil palm industry lobby groups in Sarawak are unhappy that hundreds of bank accounts have been frozen under a probe on corruption and illegal logging.   In separate statements, the Sarawak Timber Association (STA) and Sarawak Oil Palm Plantation Owners Association (Soppoa) described the freezing of accounts under Ops Gergaji as extreme and disruptive.  STA chairman Pemanca Datuk Wong Kie Yik said that MACC's freezing of 519 bank account worth RM700mil was "too harsh".  He said Ops Gergaji, which began last Tuesday, had crippled daily operations of member companies, some of which not directly involved in the timber trade.  "This has put affected companies in dire situations of not being able to pay their contractors, sub-contractors, suppliers and their employees when the Gawai Dayak festival is just around the corner," Wong said in a statement.  He added that those companies would break the law by not meeting statutory requirements of paying Employees Provident Fund, Social Security and the Goods and Services Tax.  Wong reiterated the industry's support for anti illegal logging efforts but said the methods deployed had been unreasonable and without compassion.  The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission's (MACC) has frozen more than 500 accounts involving nearly RM700mil and seized 1,785 logs worth RM1mil.  Ops Gergaji involved 400 officers and covered Miri, Kuching, Sibu, Bintulu, Bakun and Kapit. Fourteen people, who are directors and managers of sawmill and log ponds, had been called up to assist in investigations.  In the Soppoa statement, issued late Friday, it said members welcomed the move to fight illegal logging but "strongly oppose the freezing of bank accounts of other businesses not related to such activities".  It said that accounts of plantation companies, educational institutions, hospitality businesses and many other businesses across Sarawak had been frozen.......
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2015/05/16/Sarawak-companies-not-happy-bank-accounts/

18 May 2015: Will FGV be removed from the KLCI?

Note: Thanks to alert from Felda case study team member on the chatter about FGV being removed from the KLCI. If so, this could dampen ETF tracking and institutional portfolio investment interest in the stock. Many such investors have a focus on holding the largest market capitalization stocks and presence on the KLCI (the key equity index for the Malaysia stock exchange) is important.

FGV company youtube videos, https://www.youtube.com/user/fgvofficial
Below some news articles relating to these FGV issues:

FGV to review LLA terms Saturday, 28 February 2015 By: HANIM ADNAN FELDA Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) is believed to be in the midst of finding a solution to improve the terms of its land lease agreement (LLA) with the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda) which has distorted the calculation of its profits, say sources. Under the LLA agreement signed in 2012, FGV has to pay Felda a fixed amount of RM250mil per year in cash for 20 years and a 15% share of operating profit from the sales of fresh fruit bunches derived from the estate land leased from Felda.
From a business perspective, sources says the LLA business model is working well at the FGV group’s operational level. However, the LLA factor in practice is distorting and complicates the fair value accounting treatment on FGV, which saw its profits pulled down in its recent financial year results. “Hence, FGV is trying to work out with Felda on how to make it easier for the LLA fair value change calculation to be done and better reflect on the operational profits based on measures taken by the FGV group since 2012,” adds the source.  http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/02/28/FGV-to-review-LLA-terms/?style=biz

FGV down on stock downgrade Thursday, 26 February 2015  By: S. PUSPADEVI PETALING JAYA: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd’s (FGV) share price dropped by almost 13% after analysts downgraded the stock following the group’s disappointing quarter.  The stock closed 38 sen lower at RM2.56 yesterday, the steepest fall in the last 18 months. The counter saw 14.56 million shares being traded.  Some volatility in the shares is expected, as analysts have maintained their bleak outlook on the group’s performance, stating that the downstream segment remained a challenge.
CIMB Research attributed the weaker fourth-quarter earnings to lower plantation and downstream contributions.  It also downgraded the stock as it viewed the 34% share price rally over the past months as unjustified, given its poor quarterly results and potential removal from the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index due to its lower market capitalisation.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/02/26/FGV-down-on-stock-downgrade/?style=biz


17 May 2015: Indofood trims capex plan, IOI Corp net loss and forex loss on US$ loans, First Resources and PT SAL, Bumitama Agri, CBPI, FGV sells non-core assets amidst leadership uncertainty, GAR-GVL palm oil mill, Wilmar profits and its Australia sugar tussle

Indofood plans lower capex of Rp 9t this year Grace D. Amianti, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Sat, May 09 2015, 10:54 AM; Publicly listed food and consumer goods giant Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) has reduced its capital expenditure (capex) plans amid lackluster domestic economic growth. Indofood expects to spend Rp 9 trillion (US$686 million) capex for business expansion this year, down from Rp 9.6 trillion last year, which was a 60 percent increase from 2013.“Capex is usually used for expansion of existing plants as well as constructing new ones. This year, we will use our capex for upgrading our existing factories through installing new machines and so on,” Indofood president director Anthony Salim said at a press conference after the company’s general shareholders meeting on Friday.Indonesia’s economy, over half of which is driven by consumer demand, grew 4.7 percent in the first quarter of this year, the weakest growth rate since 2009, and far from the government’s 5.7 percent target this year.Indofood finance director Thomas Tjhie said 30 percent of this year’s capex would be allocated to its largest subsidiary and business division, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP), which is among the world’s top instant noodle makers.Other business divisions, such as Bogasari and agribusiness, obtained a 26 percent portion each. The remaining 18 percent will be split evenly for its distribution and cultivation divisions, Thomas added - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/05/09/indofood-plans-lower-capex-rp-9t-year.html#sthash.odXj4iPN.dpuf

IOI Corp's 3Q sees a net loss of RM188m on higher net forex loss By Yimie Yong / theedgemarkets.com   | May 14, 2015 : 8:29 PM MYT     KUALA LUMPUR (May 14): IOI Corp Bhd ( Financial Dashboard) posted a net loss of RM188 million in the third quarter ended March 31, 2015 (3QFY15) from a net profit of RM2.18 billion a year ago, mainly due to higher net foreign currency translation loss. This translated into a loss per share of 2.95 sen, compared to an earnings per share (EPS) of 34.2 sen. Revenue declined 4.25% to RM2.78 billion, from RM2.9 billion a year earlier. In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, IOI Corp (fundamental: 1.7; valuation: 2.1) said the group’s lower profit was also due to lower contribution from both plantation and resource-based manufacturing segments. Lower earnings from plantation business was due to lower fresh fruit bunches production and lower crude palm oil (CPO) price, while lower profit from resource-based manufacturing business was due to lower margin and sales volume. IOI Corp also explained that during the quarter under review, there was a net repayment of US$526 million (approximately RM1.88 billion) on its US dollar denominated borrowings. “As a result, the impact of the dollar-ringgit volatility on our US dollar denominated borrowings will be lower in the future,” it added.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/ioi-corps-3q-sees-net-loss-rm188m-higher-net-forex-loss

First Resources' Q1 profit falls 38.5%, hit by lower palm-oil prices By Anita Gabriel  May 11, 20158:33 AM FIRST Resources on Monday reported a 38.5 per cent drop in net profit to US$27.7 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2015, from US$45 million in the year-ago period, as profit from operations declined 24 per cent due to lower average selling prices and sales volumes of palm-based products. Revenue fell 46 per cent to US$96.3 million from US$178 million. Cost of sales slipped 63 per cent to US$38 million mainly due to lower sales volumes, decrease in purchases of fresh fruit bunches and palm-oil products from third parties, as well as lower processing costs
Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) saw a 21 per cent decline to US$53.4 million, while Ebitda margin improved to 55.5 per cent from 37.9 per cent a year ago, which was partly contributed by lower purchases from third parties. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/first-resources-q1-profit-falls-385-hit-by-lower-palm-oil-prices

Weak moratorium endangers peatlands in Riau Adisti Sukma Sawitri, The Jakarta Post, Indragiri Hilir/Jakarta | National | Tue, May 12 2015, 6:20 AM; Thousands of hectares of peatland in Indragiri Hilir regency, Riau, are under threat by the advance of palm oil company PT Setia Agrindo Lestari (PT SAL), which has begun to clear the area to make way for new plantations.An indirect subsidiary of palm oil giant First Resources Limited, PT SAL obtained a location permit for the 17,059-hectare property, spread over five villages in Gaung district, from the Indragiri Hilir administration in 2012, a year after former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono issued a presidential instruction (Inpres) banning the issuance of new permits to clear primary forests or peatlands. The forest moratorium, which was extended in 2013, mandates the protection of primary forests and peatlands. When Perspektif Baru Foundation and Kemitraan invited journalists from media companies, including The Jakarta Post, to visit a part of the PT SAL concession in Pungkat village last Wednesday, a new trench was opened by the company workers. The trench passes through the cleared area, which is the size of several soccer fields. By siphoning vegetation felled by the land clearing toward the village, the trenches have caused water supplies have become polluted, locals say. “The water has been murky for the past few days. We are lucky this is the rainy season, so we can still gather rainwater. I can’t imagine how we will survive during the dry season,” said Masniar, a Pungkat resident.The village has depended on water from the peatland areas during the dry season since 1974....In its 2014 financial report, First Resources Limited, which is publicly listed in Singapore, stated it held a 46.7 percent stake in PT SAL.Riko Kurniawan from the Riau chapter of the NGO Indonesian Forum fot the Environment (Walhi) said many palm oil companies still disregarded the forest moratorium, since it carried no punishment for violators. - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/05/12/weak-moratorium-endangers-peatlands-riau.html#sthash.yForvjIU.dpuf

Bumitama Agri Q1 profits fall 41% to 181.6 billion rupiah Published on May 12, 2015 11:42 AM SINGAPORE - Palm-oil producer Bumitama Agri announced on Tuesday that net profit for the first quarter ended March 31, 2015, fell 41 per cent to 181.57 billion rupiah (S$18.44 million) from 307.84 billion rupiah for the year-ago period. The mainboard-listed company blamed lower selling prices for both crude palm oil and palm kernel, the higher cost of sales, foreign-exchange loss and share of loss of associate companies. Revenue for the quarter dipped 1.7 per cent to 1.33 trillion rupiah as the lower selling prices offset the increase in sales volume of both products. - See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/business/companies/story/bumitama-agri-q1-profits-fall-41-1816-billion-rupiah-20150512#sthash.vkNGKQ3h.dpuf

CB Industrial awarded more than RM250m worth of contracts this year By AmResearch / The Edge Financial Daily   | May 7, 2015 : 10:42 AM MYT      http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/cb-industrial-awarded-more-rm250m-worth-contracts-year

Felda Global Ventures to sell non-core ventures by third quarter Thursday, 7 May 2015
KUALA LUMPUR: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) will complete the disposal of its non-core businesses by the third quarter of 2015, said group president and chief executive officer Datuk Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah. The disposal, which includes Felda Travel, Felda Property and Felda Prodata Systems, will be carried out through open tender process. http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/05/07/Felda-Global-Ventures-to-sell-noncore-ventures-by-third-quarter/?style=biz

Renewal of Felda Global Venture CEO contract remains unclear Published: 6 May 2015 7:58 PM Felda Global Ventures Bhd’s (FGV) CEO Datuk Mohd Emir Mavani Abdullah's answer was vague when asked whether his employment contract, which will end in July, will be renewed. “It is in the process,” Emir Mavani said cryptically when asked if he would continue to helm the plantation group, whose share price has come under heavy pressure as a result of the poor earnings performance. He was speaking to reporters after FGV's signing ceremony to establish the Rafflesia Centre for Research and Interpretation and Sun Bear Conservation Centre today. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/renewal-of-felda-global-venture-ceo-contract-remains-unclear#sthash.PFReS0xC.dpuf

GVL oil palm mill coming soon  Published: Friday, 08 May 2015 00:22; Golden Veroleum Liberia signed a Letter of Acceptance with Malaysia-based Modipalm Engineering Sdn Bhd for the construction of its Tarjuowon Palm Oil Mill and Greenville Bulking Station.   A press release issued by GVL says the contract, worth upwards of 21 million USD, is expected to be completed by 2017 and will employ several hundred Liberians during construction and  pproximately 150 Liberians in industrial processing when in full operation. Currently, GVL employs approximately 3,700 in the South East of the country. “What we want to do is continue that number upward as we grow with the help of the communities,” said GVL Spokesman Stephen Binda. “The mill and bulking station will certainly help with that and ensure Liberia will have its own processing capabilities, which in essence means that there are products made in Liberia by Liberians.” When completed the mill will be used to process fresh fruit bunches, also known as FFB, typically within 24 hours of harvesting.  Then the oil would be transported to the bulking station. “This is a process that began for us a couple of years ago when we sent our first batch of Liberian engineers to Jakarta, Indonesia to train specifically in oil palm mill engineering. They returned and are now helping to run the company, and they will have an enormous task ahead of them with the mill. But they have stepped up to the challenge and we expect great things from them,” according to Binda. Of the current GVL workforce, 64 Liberians are in various management positions, the mill and bulking station will increase that number. When fully operational, the company expects to employ between 35,000 and 40,000, the release concluded. http://www.thenewdawnliberia.com/news/7328-gvl-oil-palm-mill-coming-soon

UPDATE 2-Wilmar Q1 profit jumps on grains, oilseeds performance * Q1 net rises 49 pct to $241.2 million * Revenue falls 8.3 pct on lower commodity prices * Expects crushing margin to be positive into mid-2015 (Adds details on sugar business in paragraphs 1, 7,8) SINGAPORE, May 7 (Reuters) - Singapore-based Wilmar International Ltd on Thursday said net profit jumped 49 percent in the first quarter as strong earnings at its oilseeds and grains business offset losses in other segments, including the company's sugar segment. The world's largest palm oil processor and one of the biggest buyers of soybeans reported profit of $241.2 million for January-March. That was on revenue which fell 8.3 percent to $9.4 billion due to a decline in commodity prices. Pre-tax profit from the oilseeds and grains division grew to $166.1 million from $13.6 million a year earlier, driven by higher crushing margins and improved performance in its consumer product business. Wilmar said crushing margins in China CNSOY-RZO-MRG rose due to a decline in soybean imports and prices. "Crush margins are expected to remain positive going into mid-2015," Wilmar said in a statement. High earnings contributions from associates in India and China also boosted profit, Wilmar said. That helped offset a pre-tax loss in Wilmar's sugar segment of $68 million in the first quarter, more than a quarter higher than the prior year's loss of $54 million, due to weaker performances in the company's Indonesian refineries and merchandising business. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/07/wilmar-results-idUSL4N0XY41V20150507

Big Sugar Order Gives Prices a Jolt; More Than a Dozen Ships Are Lined Up in Brazil to Fulfill the Order; By  Carolyn Cui and  Julie Wernau  May 8, 2015 6:53 p.m. ET; One company’s purchase of an unusually large amount of sugar is sending the market scrambling. Wilmar International Ltd. bought 1.9 million tons of sugar on the ICE Futures U.S. Exchange and called on sellers to ship the order—the largest exchange delivery...  http://www.wsj.com/articles/big-sugar-order-gives-prices-a-jolt-143112559

Wilmar believes fair competition in sugar is "premature" Emily Smith | 5th May 2015 6:00 AM
DRAFTING legislation to ensure fair competition in sugar marketing is "premature and unnecessary", according to sugar industry giant Wilmar.  The company responded yesterday to plans of a private member's bill the state Opposition wants to bring to parliament, designed to add pro-competition amendments to the Sugar Industry Act 1999. If it makes it through parliament, it would protect farmers from "no choice" marketing plans Wilmar proposed, after they break away from independent sugar marketer Queensland Sugar Limited in 2017.  But Wilmar's executive general manager strategy and business development, Shayne Rutherford, said the proposed changes already would take growers into consideration.  "Wilmar is disappointed the LNP is discussing a private member's bill without having met with us to understand the marketing model we are proposing or the status of negotiations," he said Wilmar believes fair competition in sugar is "premature" http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/wilmar-upset-by-plan/2627953/

LETTER TO THE ED: Choice is the key issue for cane farmers Kerry Latter, CEO Canegrowers Mackay | 6th May 2015 8:20 AM  WILMAR continues to fight against any opportunity to provide growers with a choice model in sugar marketing, commercial or legislative (DM 05/05/15).
Given the monopsony position of Wilmar's sugar mills, the key remedy to the issue is to provide cane growers with economic bargaining power and real choice.  This may be achieved by the twin means of explicitly and permanently granting all Queensland growers:  1. Beneficial economic interest in their share of raw sugar created from their cane under the current supply contract formulae;
2. The right to choose how and with whom that share of the raw sugar is marketed.  The key issue is choice. Queensland cane growers should be able to choose who markets their sugar. Whether that is the industry owned not for profit company, Queensland Sugar Limited, Wilmar or some other entity, it should be their choice.  The State Government needs to comprehend this and the impacts on Queensland families across the state, providing a simple change to the existing Queensland Sugar Act 1999 is not hard to do.... http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/choice-is-the-key-issue-for-cane-farmerswilmar-con/2629547/

1 May 2015: Indofood sales, Angro-Eastern warns, second mill for Month Reththy Cambodia, Peter Lim (former Wilmar deal maker and owner) sets up for EU deal making

Indofood books sales of S$1.5 billionThe Jakarta Post/Asia News NetworkFriday, May 01, 2015 ; http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/indofood-books-sales-s15-billion#sthash.8sqGADQR.dpuf

Indofood books sales of Rp 15.02t The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Thu, April 30 2015, 7:57 PM; Leading food manufacturer PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) booked net sales of Rp 15.02 trillion (US$1.15 billion) in the first quarter of 2015, down by 0.1 percent compared to the same period last year.INDF president director and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Anthoni Salim said Indofood CBP, which manufactures consumer branded goods, contributed 52 percent to sales, followed by Bogasari (25 percent), Agribusiness (15 percent) and Distribution (8 percent).INDF’s overall profits were down by 37.2 percent to Rp 870.1 billion.Meanwhile, the net profit margin declined to 5.8 percent from 9.2 percent, due largely to exchange rate losses as a result of the depreciation of the rupiah.Anthoni said by not calculating non-recurring accounts and exchange rate margins, INDF’s core profit which reflected its operational work performance grew by 11.6 percent to Rp 1.05 trillion from Rp 939.9 billion.“Entering 2015, the domestic economic situation is not yet conducive. In the midst of challenging market conditions and the depreciating rupiah, INDF’s operational work performance remains strong as reflected in its core profit,” said Anthoni. (ebf) - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/04/30/indofood-books-sales-rp-1502.html#sthash.wBbGdZPb.dpuf

Indonesia's Indofood Sukses net profit falls 37 pct in Q1 Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:20pm EDT  JAKARTA, April 30  (Reuters) - Indonesia's PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk, one of the world's largest instant noodle makers, reported on Thursday a 37 percent plunge in first-quarter net profit.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/30/indofood-sukses-results-idUSL4N0XR0D420150430


Anglo-Eastern Posts Profit Drop, Warns Of Challenges In Palm Oil Thu, 30th Apr 2015 13:14
LONDON (Alliance News) - Anglo-Eastern Plantations PLC Thursday reported a big drop in profit in 2014 despite an increase in revenue, due to a biological asset value adjustment, and warned of a challenging future as crude palm oil prices remain under pressure due to lower prices for alternatives like crude oil and soya and sunflower oil and because input costs are rising. The palm oil and rubber producer reported a 67% drop in pretax profit to USD51.2 million, from USD153.4 million in 2013, despite a 24% rise in revenue to USD251.3 million from USD201.9 million on the back of higher production of fresh fruit bunches. The profit drop was caused by a biological asset adjustment of USD33.7 million, compared with a credit of USD93.7 million in 2013, mainly due to the weakening of the Rupiah against the US dollar. Excluding this adjustment, its profit rose to USD85.0 million, from USD59.7 million....the company said the mill construction in Central Kalimantan is progressing on schedule and said it is expected to be operational in the second quarter of 2015, while the USD5 million construction of the biogas and biomass plant in North Sumatera is now complete and has begun operations ........"The group expects to face tougher challenges with steeper rise in operating costs in 2015 due to rising fertiliser prices, higher wage inflation and removal of government fuel subsidies in Indonesia," the chairman added. http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=agm0me59&headline=AngloEastern_Posts_Profit_Drop_Warns_Of_Challenges_In_Palm_Oil

Cambodian PM inaugurates 2nd palm oil plant; PHNOM PENH, April 29 (Xinhua) -- Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen on Wednesday inaugurated a 20 million U.S. dollars palm oil factory in southwest Cambodia's Preah Sihanouk province. It was the kingdom's second palm oil plant that was jointly invested by Cambodia's Mong Reththy Group and Thai Charoen Corporation Group. Hun Sen said the factory was a new achievement in the development of agro-industrial sector. "The launching of the factory will contribute to developing the economy and reducing poverty through job creation in rural areas," he said. Mong Reththy, president of the Mong Reththy Group, said the new plant is capable to process 45 tons of fresh oil palm fruit per hour, while the old factory, launched since 2002, is able to process only 30 tons per hour. http://www.globalpost.com/article/6532368/2015/04/29/cambodian-pm-inaugurates-2nd-palm-oil-plant

Billionaire Valencia Boss Taps LVMH Dealmaker for Europe Push 'By'Joyce Koh 12:00 AM HKT   April 30, 2015; Lim, a 61-year-old former stockbroker, made his fortune through holdings in palm oil producers and a chain of Manchester United cafes in Asia. He also has stakes in supercar maker McLaren Automotive Ltd., Singapore property developer Rowsley Ltd. and security provider Soverus Group Pte.....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-29/singapore-billionaire-lim-said-to-hire-lvmh-private-equity-s-teo

26 April 2015: Sime Darby Bumiputera vendor devt programme, Wilmar US$1 billion complex at Maloy East Kalimantan, Cargill seeks poultry play, more palm oil mills in Indonesia; GAR's US$1.5 billion multicurrency medium term note programme; PZ Wilmar Nigeria refinery capacity 300,000 tons/year and 50m000 ha of oil palm soon;  Presco's Investment in Nigeria over US$1bn

Sime Darby launches Bumiputera vendor devt programme Wednesday, 22 April 2015 By: ZUNAIRA SAIEED; KUALA LUMPUR: Sime Darby Bhd has launched the Bumiputera vendor development programme to help specific Bumiputera companies develop their capabilities to become more competitive in the local and global markets. Sime Darby said on Wednesday it had identified nine companies that have signed the MoUs with Sime Darby Plantation and Sime Darby Property, reflecting a spread of Bumiputera vendors in both divisions. “In support of Malaysia’s national agenda, the group is determined to increase our pool of approved Bumiputera vendors in the approved vendor list to 30%,” said Sime Darby president and group chief executive Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh...... The selected vendors would be given opportunity to supply goods and services to needs of Sime Darby for a period of three to five years. “Sime Darby will also assist the vendor to obtain financial and training assistance from government agencies, financial institutions or any other certified technical agencies,” Sime Darby added. If the selected vendors KPIs are met after graduating from the programme, the vendors would be recognised as “Sime Darby Preferred Vendor’, which would likely increase their opportunity to be involved in future projects..... For its financial year ended June 30, 2014, the group’s saving from procurement activities stood at RM60mil.... http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/04/22/Sime-Darby-launches-Bumiputera-Vendor-Development-Programme/?style=biz
Wilmar to Build $1b Integrated CPO Factory in E. Kalimantan By Amrozi Amenan on 11:34 am Apr 20, 2015; Gresik, East Java. The biggest crude palm oil processing company in the world, Wilmar Nabati Indonesia — the local unit of Wilmar International — plans to build a $1 billion integrated factory in the Maloy industrial area in East Kalimantan to produce more processed CPO products. The company is currently negotiating on land for the factory with the East Kalimantan government, Wilmar Nabati Indonesia president director Hendri Sakti said last week. “Once we get the land, we will start building the factory. It will be similar to our factory in Gresik,” Hendri said...... Wilmar Nabati Indonesia has a 100-hectare CPO processing factory in Gresik that produces processed CPO products such as oleo-food, oleo-chemical, bio-fuel, bio-lefin and bio-avtur...... http://thejakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/%EF%BB%BFwilmar-build-1b-integrated-cpo-factory-e-kalimantan/

Cargill Seeking Poultry Play, Building Palm Oil Mills In Indonesia - Minnesota-based company is also considering entering aquaculture for the first time By Ben Otto  April 20, 2015 8:30 a.m. ET
JAKARTA, Indonesia—Cargill Inc. is seeking to enter the Indonesian poultry sector and is investing in mills for its growing palm oil business there, part of its plans to pour $1 billion into Southeast Asia’s largest economy in the coming years...... The Minnesota-based company is “in active discussions” to enter the poultry sector in Indonesia, which will include building a new facility and likely partnering, Alan Willits, Cargill... http://www.wsj.com/articles/cargill-seeking-poultry-play-building-palm-oil-mills-in-indonesia-1429533058

Golden Agri's S$125m three-year notes priced at 5.5% a year By Cai Haoxianghaoxiang@sph.com.sg@HaoxiangCaiBT; 22 Apr7:52 AM; PALM oil plantation company Golden Agri-Resources said on Wednesday that it has priced its S$125 million senior unsecured fixed rate notes due April 27, 2018, at 5.5 per cent a year. The company is getting funding from a US$1.5 billion multicurrency medium term note programme. The latest offering is managed by Credit Suisse, MUFJ, and OCBC Bank......  Golden Agri said net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes and working capital needs, including but not limited to the repayment of outstanding borrowings...... http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/golden-agris-s125m-three-year-notes-priced-at-55-a-year

Banks raising $400m for palm oil expansion 'must examine high risks' by Oliver Tickell 20th April 2015; Banks preparing to launch a $400m bond issue for a global palm oil giant with a history of legal violations and broken standards have been warned of their 'high risk client' and the 'extreme and outstanding' social and environmental conflicts in the palm oil agribusiness sector. "Banks and investors must examine the full range of environmental, social, reputational, legal and market risks prevalent in the palm oil sector", warns a new alert from the Banktrack Network. They should also "ensure that they undertake enhanced, robust due diligence procedures to identify, understand and screen these risks prior to any financing", the group insists......  The warning was issued as a syndicate of three global financial institutions - Credit Suisse, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation and Mitsubishi UFJ Securities - prepare to issue $400 million in bonds for palm oil expansion.
The syndicate is acting for Singapore-registered Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) - one of the world's largest palm oil companies and a part of the Sinar Mas Group - according to a Debtwire report last week. And it's beginning meetings this week with credit investors this week in Hong Kong and Singapore...... http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2837736/banks_raising_400m_for_palm_oil_expansion_must_examine_high_risks.html

Nigeria's path to revamping oil palm sector by Femi Adekoya on April 22, 2015
http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/2015/04/nigerias-path-to-revamping-oil-palm-sector/

PZ Wilmar Nigeria refinery capacity 300,000 tons/year and 50m000 ha of oil palm soon  - Backward integration ‘ll cut palm oil import by $300m April 22, 2015 Written by Chikodi Okereocha; On-going backward integration plan for palm oil embarked upon by PZ Wilmar Nigeria Limited, a palm oil processing, packaging and distribution company, will help Nigeria save foreign exchange by eliminating imports to the value of $300 million per year now being spent on palm oil import, its Managing Director, Mr. Santosh Pillai, has said. The backward integration programme, which aims at making the country self-sufficient in oil palm production would also create about 9, 000 direct and 45, 000 indirect jobs,......He said: “With refinery capacity of over 300, 000 tons per year, it will reduce Nigeria’s estimated 500, 000 ton annual supply shortage by 60 per cent.”..... According to Pillai, Nigeria’s total market for palm oil is estimated at two million tons, and local output meets about 75 per cent of total. He said to close the supply gap of crude palm oil in the country, the company is working to increase the availability of locally sourced products, as well as introducing modern plantation management. He said the company has acquired 26, 500 hectares of land in Cross River State for oil palm plantation, adding that the target is to acquire 50, 000 hectares soon...... The 26,500-hectare project is part of an integrated end-to-end value chain in oil palm production and processing. The project, according to Pillai, is the result of a joint venture between PZ Cussons and Wilmar of Singapore to explore the opportunities in the agro-allied industry and in the process deliver benefits to the Nigerian economy...... http://thenationonlineng.net/new/backward-integration-ll-cut-palm-oil-import-by-300m/

Presco's Investment in Nigeria ?Hits $1bn 21 Apr 2015; The investment injected into the Nigeria economy by Presco Oil Palm plc in the past one decade has risen beyond $1 billion, THISDAY has learnt...... With the company bringing in a minimum of $100 million investment into the country annually for the past ten years, the companies total investment in the country has risen over a billion dollars during the period. Chairman of the company, Mr. Pierre Vandebeeck, explained that the investments  included procuring high quality state-of-the-art ‎equipments, automated steam turbines and a biogas plant  for power generation, oil palm processing mills, refineries  and plants and machineries.....  Vandebeeck in an interview with THISDAY, said the company is going forward by building a new refinery and oil mill that would gulp another $30 million to boost oil palm production in Nigeria. In his words: "I have not done the feasibility study yet but the cost estimate for the oil mill  is about $20 million and the refinery is $10 million summing up to a $30 million investment. A hectare of new plantation is about $6000 so multiply that to know how much we are investing every year. We are not stopping. We are like a vehicle driving very fast  all the time, although I do say should we  slow down a bit but there are so many opportunities that come up that we do not want to miss and therefore you are more or less pushed to continue investing. ‎"........"We are the only company in this industry in the world that has succeeded  in cloning rubber trees. We started two years ago and will be planting our first cloned rubber trees in Ivory Coast and Ghana because we believe through this system we will be increasing the rubber yields by about 30 per cent per hectares by 2 tonnes to 3 tonnes, but I believe it will be more‎," he said..... ‎He noted that for the past  ten years, Presco has being investing in what he described as a genetic block of oil palm having over 200 different crosses ‎and varieties from all over the world, saying that the company will propagate and make it available to anyone willing to pay the price. "We have the first result for this and five years after planting, we added 20,000,000 per hectares with an extraction rate of 29 per cent and this means we are doubling the oil yields per hectare of what is coming now.‎ We are doing the same thing ‎for cocoa because personally I believe in three crops which are  rubbber, oil palm and cocoa. We are going to produce high performing clones that are disease resistant, he said...... http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/prescos-investment-in-nigeria-hits-1bn/207365/

Asian and African business leaders form business council to boost trade, prosperity Published on Apr 21, 2015 6:45 PM; JAKARTA - INSTANT noodle producer Indofood plans to build a factory in Morocco, its sixth in Africa, this year. It is one of a growing number of Asian companies investing in the continent of late. More natural resources from Africa, such as crude oil from Angola, are also flowing to Asia. But trade between both regions remains well below its potential, and business leaders on both sides today agreed to form an Asian-African Business Council (AABC) to step up links, share know-how and boost investments..... http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/asian-and-african-business-leaders-form-business-council-boost-trade#sthash.NVVHZxow.dpuf

22 April 2015: Sabah biorefinery complex at Lahad Datu, Astra Agro capex plans US$230 million for 2015 - more mills, plans for PK crushing, government cattle farming integration plan

Sabah soon to have world’s first palm oil based biorefinery complex  by ruben sario Updated: Wednesday April 22, 2015 MYT 6:39:05 AM; KOTA KINABALU: Malaysia is set to become a key producer of sustainably produced raw materials for the manufacture of detergents, lubricants and plastics once the world’s first palm oil based bio refinery complex is operational in the east coast of Lahad Datu district. Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Datuk Dr Ewon Ebin said the bio refinery complex would be producing speciality chemicals such as olefins, saturated methyl ester and methyl ester sulphonate. He said the RM2bil metathesis biorefinery plant at the Palm Oil Industrial Cluster in Lahad Datu was a joint venture between US-based Elevance Renewable Sciences Inc and Genting Plantations Bhd. “The plant is expected to be operational in about two years and will propel Malaysia as a key producer of sustainably produced specialty chemicals,” Ewon said after the launching of the BioBorneo conference and exhibition here on Monday. ...Ewon said bio-refinery complex was one of the 13 key projects nationwide under the bio-economy transformation programme, of which three were located in Sabah. He said the other two projects in the state utilised oil palm waste for the manufacture of compressed natural gas and organic fertiliser. Ewon said the Felda Palm Industries would be equipping its Hamparan Badai, Kembara Sakti and Nilam Permata palm oil mills to convert raw biogas from the effluent into compressed industrial grade natural gas. “Each of these facilities would have the capacity to produce 900 cubic metres per hour of this compressed natural gas,” he added. Ewon said the palm oil waste was also be used to produce organic fertiliser with local firm Green Plant Organic Fertilizer Sdn Bhd constructing plant on a build-operate-transfer basis for Sawit Kinabalu in Sabah......... http://www.thestar.com.my/Metro/Community/2015/04/22/RM2bil-plant-pact-State-soon-to-have-worlds-first-palm-oil-based-biorefinery-complex/

Astra Agro to venture into cattle farming Tassia Sipahutar, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Wed, April 15 2015, 8:41 AM; Major plantation company PT Astra Agro Lestari (AALI), part of diversified conglomerate PT Astra International (ASII), is set to venture into cattle farming in an effort to diversify its business, according to its top boss.Astra Agro president director Widya Wiryawan said on Tuesday that the publicly listed company — whose major commodity is crude palm oil (CPO) — was assessing in more detail the possibility of entering the cattle-breeding business.“It may go hand-in-hand with our existing palm oil plantation, creating a business synergy. We have many flat plantation sites that may suit the cattle’s needs,” he said in a press conference after the company’s annual general shareholders’ meeting. At present, Astra Agro’s plantation sites are scattered across the country, but most of them are located in Kalimantan and Sulawesi. In addition to palm oil, the company also has a rubber plantation in Banten.Widya acknowledged that cattle farming would provide a new business opportunity for the company, citing the government’s ambition to achieve national beef self-sufficiency. “But we will need more clarity from the government on the program before we move on to more concrete action,” he said...... According to Widya, Astra Agro has the potential to produce further CPO derivatives. “We have not really done anything with our palm oil kernels. The end product may be in the form of an oil that resembles coconut oil, but further study is needed,” he said. Astra Agro finance director Rudy said that his firm had allocated around Rp 3 trillion (US$231.14 million) to finance its expenditure this year.“About one third of the figure will be used for various plantation purposes, one third to upgrade existing plants or build new ones and the rest to improve infrastructure in areas around our plantations sites,” he explained. - See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/04/15/astra-agro-venture-cattle-farming.html#sthash.nRrHqIOM.dpuf
Astra Agro to Spend $24m for Two Palm Oil Plants By Antonia Timmerman on 01:07 pm Apr 15, 2015; Jakarta. Astra Argo Lestari, the palm oil unit of Astra International, is setting aside $20 million to $24 million for the construction of two palm plants in South Kalimantan and Central Sulawesi this year. “We are indeed trying to expand in many regions that so far have not yet been touched,” said Astra Argo director Joko Supriyono on Tuesday. The plants will be completed in October 2016 with production capacity of 45 metric tons per hour for each plant. Astra Argo will have 31 palm plants next year from 29 units this year. Astra Argo finance director Rudy said the company will finance the construction from its capital expenditure. In 2015, the company allocated Rp 3 trillion ($230 million) to Rp 3.5 trillion for capital spending..... http://thejakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/astra-agro-spend-24m-two-palm-oil-plants/


19 April 2015:  Fitch affirm ratings of GAR units, KLK raises RM1.6 billion multi-currency sukuk, Asahi Indofood's new beverage plant, Indofood and Tunas Baru new sugar mills, GAR guidance on output, FGV graphene venture, Queensland growers commercial fight with millers

Malaysia's KLK to raise up to 1.6 bln ringgit from multi-currency sukuk, KUALA LUMPUR, April 13; (Reuters) - Malaysian plantation company Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK) Bhd will raise up to 1.6 billion ringgit ($431.9 million) from Islamic bonds, rating agency RAM Ratings said on Monday.
 The multi-currency sukuk programme expires in 2027 and was rated AA1 or stable by RAM Ratings in a statement.... http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/13/malaysia-sukuk-kl-kepong-idUSL4N0XA3UT20150413

Fitch Affirms 3 Indonesian Palm Oil Producers; Outlook Stable (The following statement was released by the rating agency) JAKARTA/SYDNEY, April 14 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has affirmed the National Long-Term Ratings of Indonesia-based palm oil producers PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk (SMART), PT Ivo Mas Tunggal (IMT) and PT Sawit Mas Sejahtera (SMS) at 'AA(idn)', with Stable Outlooks. SMART, IMT and SMS are wholly owned by Golden Agri Resources, Ltd (GAR). At the same time the agency has affirmed SMART's IDR1trn bonds due in 2017 and 2019 at 'AA(idn)'. 'AA' National Ratings denote expectations of very low default risk relative to other issuers or obligations in the same country... KEY RATINGS DRIVERS Delayed Deleveraging: Fitch now expects GAR to begin deleveraging about a year later than previously forecast, because of low CPO prices, thinner downstream margins and disappointing performance of its China operations. The affirmation of the ratings on the three GAR subsidiaries is driven by Fitch's expectation that GAR's consolidated profile will improve, with FFO-adjusted leverage falling to around 4x by end-2016. This is in line with management's expectation that losses at GAR's Chinese operation in 2014 are non-recurring, the global CPO price will rebound in 2016, and higher refining capacity utilisation will improve overall downstream margins.... http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/idUSFit91968620150415
Asahi Indofood opens new beverage plant, The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network Friday, Apr 10, 2015 http://business.asiaone.com/news/asahi-indofood-opens-new-beverage-plant#sthash.YQPYNrr7.dpuf

UPDATE 1-Indofood Agri plans new Indonesian sugar mill to feed local demand Tue Apr 7, 2015 3:39am EDT By Eveline Danubrata and Cindy Silviana
* New mill may cost at least $150 mln -Indofood Agri CEO
* Indonesia is short of around 3 mln tonnes of sugar
* Tunas Baru to invest $100 mln in new sugar factory (Adds comment from CEO, government data, background) http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/07/indofood-agri-sugar-idUSL3N0X41ED20150407

Golden Agri sees 2015 palm output at lower end of expectations April 04, 2015  RECORDER REPORT; Golden Agri-Resources Ltd expects its palm and palm kernel oil production to rise around 5 percent this year, coming in at the lower end of a projected annual growth rate as dry weather hurts yields, a senior company executive said.... A smaller rise in output from the world's second-largest oil palm planter by acreage could underpin palm prices, which fell almost 15 percent in 2014 as high rival oilseed supplies and sliding crude oil prices dented demand for the tropical oil from the food and energy sectors..... Based on normal weather conditions, Golden Agri could expect a 5-10 percent rise in output, but this year "because of the weather concerns we are expecting to hit the lower end of that number", the firm's chief financial officer, Rafael Concepcion, told Reuters on Tuesday..... 
http://www.brecorder.com/agriculture-a-allied/183/1168677/

Malaysia poised to become Asia’s largest producer of graphene Friday April 10, 2015; KUALA LUMPUR, April 10 — Malaysia is poised to become the largest producer of graphene materials in Asia once Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) sets up a graphene plant in the country within two years. FGV Executive Vice-President of Palm Downstream Cluster Datuk Zakaria Arshad said the RM15 million plant was expected to have a production capacity of nine kilogrammes of graphene per day. “The location of the plant has not been specifically identified, but it is expected to be located at one of FGV’s mills,” he told reporters at the Malaysian Investment Development Authority seminar on Graphene here today. Graphene is a one-atom-thick sheet of carbon that combines extreme mechanical strength, exceptional electronic and thermal conductivities, impermeability to gases as well as many other properties that make it highly attractive for a broad range of applications. This downstream production of graphene material would be used in the development of products in various industries encompassing aerospace, telecommunications, rubber, palm oil, electronics, oil and gas and solar, he said. Giving an example for graphene use in palm oil, Zakaria said this innovative development enables methane and other by-products from crude palm oil to be used as raw input at very low costs, while producing high quality materials. Last year, FGV, in a joint venture effort with Cambridge Nanosystems, built a carbon nanotubes and graphene plant in the United Kingdom that produces between 50 and 100 tonnes of products a year to cater the European market. - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/malaysia-poised-to-become-asias-largest-producer-of-graphene#sthash.BcJ03ajF.dpuf

Settlers lost RM177 million from Felda Global, says Pua BY ANISAH SHUKRY Published: 8 April 2015 1:39 PM ,,,The 94,125 settlers who still have shares in Felda Global Ventures Holdings (FGVH) have lost a total estimated RM177 million, DAP MP Tony Pua said today, citing the market closing price of RM2.09 per share yesterday. He said the government revealed yesterday that 99.9% of the 94,219 settlers who bought their allocated 800 shares in FGVH at RM4.45 in 2012 still held on to their shares. “Unfortunately, these settlers who held on to their shares would have lost an estimated total of RM177 million based on yesterday’s market closing price of only RM2.09 per share..... “This is the result of a 53% drop in the share price over the past two years,” Pua told a press conference at the Parliament lobby. - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/settlers-lost-rm177-million-from-felda-global-says-pua#sthash.CiK1eWAC.dpuf

Blockade at Wilmar mill could erupt into full-blown strike by Andi Fachrizal  April 03, 2015
Local people blocked the road to a Wilmar palm oil mill in Sungai Malaya, a village in Indonesia’s West Kalimantan province, demanding the release of nine day laborers who were arrested during an earlier protest over delayed wages.... As of April 1, the company’s operations were paralyzed, with trucks carrying fresh fruit bunches from nearby plantations unable to deliver their cargo. School buses and other vehicles were allowed to pass unimpeded..... The protesters threatened that if the company, a Wilmar subsidiary named Bumi Pratama Khatulistiwa, did not meet their demands by April 4, all workers would go on strike..... According to Maulana, a youth leader from Sungai Malaya, Kubu Raya regency, the case began in January when day laborers who were fed up with Bumi Pratama’s consistent failure to pay them on time rallied in front of the company’s office..... 
http://news.mongabay.com/2015/0403-jacobson-wilmar-mill-blockade-kalbar.html#ixzz3Xidj5UyV

Sugar price slump canes Queensland growers Apr 10 2015| THE AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW| A drop in the sugar price is causing huge woe for growers. But the problems don't end there: a fight has broken out them and millers over the end of a century-old monopoly marketing arrangement..... http://www.afr.com/business/agriculture/sugar-price-slump-canes-queensland-growers-20150410-1m2xb6


Wilmar warns of potential Australian sugar production shortfall Wed Apr 8, 2015 2:26am GMT By Colin Packham; SYDNEY, April 8 (Reuters) - Australia's sugar production during the 2014/15 season may miss official estimates as a result of recent dry weather across the northeast coast of the world's third-largest raw sugar exporter, Wilmar International Ltd said on Wednesday. Much of Queensland, which accounts for more than 95 percent of the Australian sugar cane production, received less than half the typical levels of rain between January and March, Wilmar said. Australian sugar production relies on rains during the first few months of the year when rainfall is at its heaviest.
Less Australian output would support global sugar prices, which fell to more than six-year lows in March on ample supplies.... http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL4N0X514H20150408

6 April 2015: Indomie Morocco, Delta Wilmar CIS, FGV replanting, Fitch negative outlook on Sime Darby rating, Genting refinery, XingHe Selangor plant, Equatorial Palm Oil awaits HCS study, Liberia tax records warning

Indomie to build factory in Morocco | The Jakarta Post
http://m.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/04/01/indomie-build-factory-morocco.html

FINCHANNEL.com - Ukraine: Delta Wilmar CIS to increase the margarines export to Poland
http://finchannel.com/index.php/world/ukraine/item/42348-ukraine-delta-wilmar-cis-to-increase-the-margarines-export-to-Poland

FGV focus on replanting to ride out CPO price slump - The Rakyat Post
http://www.therakyatpost.com/business/2015/04/01/fgv-focus-on-replanting-to-ride-out-cpo-price-slump/

Fitch revises Outlook on Sime Darby issuer ratings to Negative - Business News | The Star Online
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/03/30/Fitch-revises-Outlook-on-Sime-Darby-issuer-ratings-to-Negative/?style=biz

tcetoday | News | Genting plans 600 t/y palm oil refinery
http://www.tcetoday.com/latest%20news/2015/march/genting-plans-palm-oil-refinery.aspx#.VSI9qKCwrqA

XingHe to set up first plant out of China in Selangor | theSundaily
http://m.thesundaily.my/node/302756

Equatorial Palm Oil holds back on development pending HCS study - Yahoo Finance UK
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/equatorial-palm-oil-holds-back-154200616.html

Liberia transparency body warns resource companies over tax records
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL6N0WT2CX20150327?irpc=932

RSPO RT15 Bali: Why did RSPO volume drop in 2016? P&C new policy watch. Sabah-MSPO discord?

#RSPO #RT15


20 Dec 2017: Why did RSPO volume drop in 2016? P&C new policy watch.

Editor's note: I had readers asking why RSPO volume dropped in 2016. A few reasons are cited, including the switchover from GreenPalm. Also, I keep an eye on volume from the big buyers. Notably the biggest buyer submitted volume reports as follows:
So eyes will be on return of volume in 2017 and that spreads volume (very big) under new owner KKR holds up well. 

For those wanting to hear the side-lines chatter on RSPO, please get in touch for direct briefing. Please note specialists point out that the new P&C has many new policy proposals, including one that conflict estates cannot be sold. FGV investigation on over-priced purchase (considering that 40% unplantable under enviro-social voluntary rules).


Unilever Sells Spreads Business to KKR for $8.1 Billion By Thomas Buckley December 15, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-15/kkr-is-said-to-near-deal-to-buy-spreads-business-from-unilever

International NGOs Condemn IOI Group’s Plan to Divest from Conflict Palm Oil Plantation -- If IOI divests, communities of Long Teran Kanan risk losing their lands, culture and livelihood December 14, 2017 https://www.ran.org/international_ngos_condemn_ioi_group_s_plan_to_divest_from_conflict_palm_oil_plantation

Newsbreak: FGV investigating overpriced Asian Plantations purchase - The Edge Malaysia  December 18, 2017 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/newsbreak-fgv-investigating-overpriced-asian-plantations-purchase

12 Dec 2017: POIG charter for processors, AOMG update notes RSPO reports loss of 0.55 million tonnes of demand, Sabah-MSPO discord?


Editor's note: 

Glad to have chatted to AOMG's Mr Qua who was in Bali. He comments: "At the RT the release of the 2017 Impact Report was announced. Here we saw that total CSPO sales in 2016 had decreased to 5,632,731 MT, down by 549,963 MT from 2015.  At RT 14 we heard the oil palm growers co-chair of RSPO, Dato’ Carl Bek-Nielsen in his welcome address hitting out at RSPO members who were using the “no palm oil” label on their products...". Please read here, http://www.aomg.org.my/index.php/2014-03-22-08-56-36/news-updates/85-rt15-bali-28-30-november-2017. 

Checking the more recent data, reported sales up to Sept 2017 is 4.5 million (the chart below seems not to have been updated). The dampening impact on non-certification traceability on RSPO volumes has been increasingly apparent; but hopefully, yoy volume expansion can pick up again for 2017. For 2018 onwards, European and global buyer demand and supply from MSPO will be worth watching. Also, Sabah is aiming to come on strong with RSPO supply, it will be good to see what demand commitments they have for this. Sabah says that it will compete on governance, and the discord between Sabah's policy plan and MSPO has hit the news headlines. 



source: RSPO

SFD: Sabah palm oil should compete via governance  November 18, 2017 http://www.theborneopost.com/2017/11/18/sfd-sabah-palm-oil-should-compete-via-governance/

(Sabah) ‘RSPO is one man’s wish list’ Sangeetha Amarthalingam / The Edge Financial Daily November 14, 2017 http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/rspo-one-mans-wish-list

POIG publishes charter for sustainable palm oil processors 11-Dec-2017 By Niamh Michail --
The Palm Oil Innovation Group (POIG) has launched a charter for traders and processors of sustainable palm oil that will "break the link between palm oil production and the destruction of forests and peatlands". https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2017/12/11/POIG-publishes-charter-for-sustainable-palm-oil-processors?

RSPO Investigating Reports of Ongoing Labor Abuse at Indofood Plantations By Sheany, December 11, 2017 http://jakartaglobe.id/news/rspo-investigating-reports-of-ongoing-labor-abuse-at-indofood-plantations/


8 Dec 2017: Post-RT News flow (more added)


Editor's note: Keeping an eye on post-RSPO RT newsflow. Some who were at the Bali meeting report "not more than 200 in the hall". There were various side meetings going on too, but some NGOs did not make it or left pretty fast. A couple of people were there are now complaining about insurance not covering the travel glitches. A more substantive post-mortem to emerge when participants have time to report.


RSPO Must Respond to Complaints Against Sime Darby: Rights Group By : Dames Alexander Sinaga December 05, 2017 -- Sime Darby said in a statement on Monday (04/12) that the land dispute has been discussed at the RSPO's annual meetings since 2012. "Throughout this period, RSPO complaint manager also visited the communities four times. As of December 2017, SDP [Sime Darby Plantation] management has held 25 meetings with the communities surrounding MAS to earnestly resolve the outstanding issues," the statement said. http://jakartaglobe.id/news/rspo-must-respond-complaints-sime-darby-rights-group/

Labor abuses persist in RSPO-certified palm plantations, report finds by Hans Nicholas Jong on 8 December 2017 https://news.mongabay.com/2017/12/labor-abuses-persist-in-rspo-certified-palm-plantations-report-finds/

Deforestation in Sumatra carves up tiger habitats into ever smaller patches
by Basten Gokkon on 5 December 2017 https://news.mongabay.com/2017/12/deforestation-in-sumatra-carves-up-tiger-habitats-into-ever-smaller-patches/


The palm oil industry promises reform, but there’s still no sign of change, Blogpost by Bagus Kusuma - 4 December, 2017 -- In 2013, Wilmar became the first palm oil trader to adopt a No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation (NDPE) policy. Others followed suit, and by the end of 2014, most household brands and big palm oil companies had sworn to protect Indonesia’s rainforests...Not one of the traders could prove it wasn’t buying from palm oil companies that destroyed rainforests. Most could not even say when there would be no deforestation in their supply chains. Instead of cutting out dirty palm oil, traders have a ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy...http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/the-palm-oil-industry-promises-reform-but-the/blog/60820/

Palm Oil Giant Vows to Reform After Indonesian Child Labour Probe By : Beh Lih Yi, November 30, 2017 -- The world's biggest palm oil processor Wilmar has launched fresh measures to improve conditions of thousands of children living on its plantations, but campaigners said on Wednesday that it was not doing enough to tackle widespread use of child labour. ilmar was targeted in an Amnesty International probe last year which found children as young as eight were working in "hazardous" conditions on plantations run by the Singapore-based firm and its suppliers in Indonesia. http://jakartaglobe.id/business/palm-oil-giant-vows-reform-indonesian-child-labour-probe/

Indonesia Says Palm Oil Key to Achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals By : Sheany, November 29, 2017 -- "The palm oil industry is key to Indonesia achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, including poverty eradication and narrowing the development gap," said Mahendra Siregar, executive director of the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC), as quoted in a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Indonesia has criticized a resolution on palm oil and deforestation the European Parliament adopted in April, which the country said discriminates against palm oil manufacturers and disregards efforts to introduce sustainable practices in the industry. Mahendra also cited the Amsterdam Declaration, which he said, if adopted, would be an example of discriminative policy, because it does not apply to other vegetable oils. "There have been negative marketing campaigns by several companies, including one by KLM [Royal Dutch Airlines], which demanded that its suppliers not use any palm oil in their products," he said. He also referred to ongoing antidumping policies and subsidies in Europe and said they are unreasonable, because they are not based on any clear evidence. ... http://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-says-palm-oil-key-to-achieving-un-sustainable-development-goals/

30 Nov 2017: RSPO RT15 Bali (from afar) - newsflow and comments, Wed and Thurs (Day 2 and 3) 


Editor's note: For various reasons including the more obvious (I don't have substantial corporate expense budget for non-insured travel to Bali), I am looking at RT15 Bali from afar. Am hearing lots from industry friends. Quite a few didn't make it before airport closure and also some left pretty quick once the eruptions escalated. A note on the travel dilemmas here, http://khorreports-palmoil.blogspot.my/2017/11/note-on-bali.html. The airport reopened Wed afternoon, as the winds shifted! Look forward to catching up with participants on and offline. I've updated for Day 2 items, (Day 1 cancelled)  and have added Day 3. Those interested in "commensurate effort" should be interested in Ferrero's estimates in the newsflow link.

The great thing is that you can follow RSPO RT15 here... https://twitter.com/RSPOtweets.  Video of the opening here, https://www.facebook.com/RSPO.org/videos/1712164242180228/. Thanks to RSPO and those posting! These are official channels. For wider opinions channel, try #RT15 on twitter, https://twitter.com/search?q=%23RT15&src=tyah

Report is of 300  participants remainung at RSPO RT15 as per yesterday afternoon. Compared to 800 participants at RSPO RT14 last year (according to AOMG's write-up, http://aomg.org.my/index.php/2014-03-22-08-56-36/news-updates/76-rt14-2016-bangkok-8-10-november-2016). 

Related newsflow


Here are newsflow and chat items related to RSPO and contemporaneous (these are also in my LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6341065834101862400). RSPO RT time is widely regarded as that time of year when negative newsflow is especially high for palm oil:

  • Wilmar International reports some positives with green finance and child labour policy. Read http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/wilmar-becomes-first-palm-oil-company-link-bank-loan-sustainability-performance and its Child Protection Policy.
  • Greenpeace   complains on palm oil traders. Read https://uk.news.yahoo.com/greenpeace-slams-indonesia-palm-oil-industry-deforestation-081013528.html and its report. 
  • KLM Royal Dutch Airlines  slammed over inflight magazine for ‘campaign’ against palm oil http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/11/27/klm-slammed-over-inflight-magazine-for-campaign-against-palm-oil.html  
  • So I am hearing from Bali that some teams are leaving Wed and Thurs (Tues program cancelled and abridged RT15 program set for Wed-Thur). The Surabaya route seems the choice for most. About travel to Surabaya, http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/desperate-tourists-pile-on-buses-ferries-to-escape-bali/news-story/eb1e5b1c2af4849fc99cf093497b90c2. 
  • Ferrero and sustainable palm oil: ...sourced 180,000 tonnes of palm oil or 0.3 per cent of the total global production annually. Out of which, 90 per cent came from Malaysia and the rest from other producing countries. "So, if all edible palm oil used in EU has the same premium as Ferrero, the extra cost would be 500 million euros per annum - that would go to the upstream of Malaysia and Indonesia. "Assuming this extra cost is fully passed to EU consumers, that would mean one euro per capita per year," he explained.... http://www.malaysiandigest.com/news/709575-sustainable-palm-oil-it-takes-two-to-tango-says-ferrero.html.
  • RSPO Secretariat leaves out Malaysian palm oil concession maps, says it infringes OSA TheEdge Nov 29, 2017--  “We have been told by our lawyers that the Malaysian maps are under the OSA (and) we want to be on the right side of the law, so we will leave it at that. “However, Sabah has told us categorically that it is absolutely okay with the maps being made public, because its land is a state matter. So for Sabah, members’ maps are published on our website,” he said. http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/313221 
  • In chat groups: 1) issue of HCV assessment system (HCVRN-ALS) at the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and 2)  Greenpeace's allegations rebutted by Aksenta Socio-Enviro Management Consulting (refer to tweet: A response to Greenpeace).

Khor Report's synopsis and some comments on RSPO RT15 

(screen shots, sources: RSPO Tweets and Linkedin sources as indicated)

RSPO P&C 2018 to include HCS Approach? But what about RSPO Next. Market uptake for this has really muted expectation, and so "commensurate effort" view is gloomy? Some see HCSA inclusion as necessary for survival, some have the very opposite view and ponder demise of interest from non-integrateds.

On Africa - Liberia, Gabon presentations. Was plantable area in forested Africa 41 or 63%? I had my eye on the incremental areas in Africa. Added HCV 13,405 ha and is that plantable 22773-13405= 9368 ha for 41% plantable in total area in forested settings? Oh hang on, maybe they calculate HCV+certified=total; so 13,405+22,773=36,178 so certified (planted) ratio is 63%.  


On Smallholders. Talk of RSPO Smallholder Academy,  of RSPO Smallholder Empowerment Platform. Mr Sutiyana was the first smallholder in Kalimantan to get RSPO certified. It took a year and a half to become certified and he hopes the 1% of certified independent smallholders will increase to 5% in the next few years. A study reports says that independent smallholders can increase premiums through certification as FFB quality increases and they can sell direct to mills. If profit-NPV is so good for smallholders, I'm just wondering: a) why supply-chain experts report that 1/3 of early certified RSPO smallholders have chosen not to stay on (lead farmers already had better practices!) and b) why I hear year-in year-out from so many working on this their worries about smallholders renewing (and moreover, trouble to convince them to join) and NPP for smallholders? We need studies covering of larger number of certified (and no longer certified) smallholders, done over time. In contrast, some other supply-chain efforts in cocoa and others report much better numbers, even approaching 100,000 of independent smallholders (Indonesia scheme oil palm smallholders are relatively easy to certify as large areas are even fully managed by the inti). Worth checking these other approaches perhaps? Also, it is not accurate to negatively depict smallholder zones as being weak links and black boxes. In reality, a lot of the old-customary use areas are smallholders (post independence decades), and it is in fact expansion in more recent decades that is led by corporate expansion. Well, okay, so smallholders aren't good at documentation and reams of paperwork... so bad.


On HCV. Report that HCV patches smaller that 200 ha are still important for biodiversity and connectivity. 70 plantations NPPs reports were digitised and studied.

On GHG. Faizal Parish presented Impacts of GHG assement and reporting: "Of the 3% peatlands identified in assessments,  100% has being conserved; leading to 308,000 mtVO2/yr of peat oxidation avoided.... 194,100 ha assesses with 30% set aside for HCV, HCS and social."

Panel – Simon Lord, Ben Vreeburg, Faisal Parish: On ‘weak-link’ companies - remove or rehabilitation? One to one basis? “Use a carrot, not a stick”. Certification and beyond to NDPE - how can can RSPO deliver on these. More philosophical question on whether certification is successful if it merely distinguishes leaders from laggards (and not 100% inclusive). "It’s not about beyond certification. It’s about certification AND beyond," said Dr Simon Lord. On addressing the haze, a gloomy statement "national rules will not impact action on the ground". WRI asks about an accountability framework? (remark from a reader: yes, there already is RSPO Next, but are buyers interested?).

End of Wed, Day 2 (Day 1 cancelled), some side events cancelled.




Update on complaints procedures:
  • further alignment with the dispute settlement made, strengthen relations with certification + accreditation bodies, separation of power 
  • GA13 resolution has been fully passed - Complaints Panel no longer need endorsement of the Board. CP have power for suspension and termination
  • How is a successful complaint filed? CP need clear info and evidence to proceed
  • Complaints Panel invite authors of reports to put an official complaint forward. This will enable the full expertise of the CP to investigate. The result is a faster, more transparent resolution
  • In response to why complaints are prolonged, the Complaints Panel explain standard operating procedures must be followed. Delays in responses and waits for investigative reports must also be taken into consideration
  • Q from @lizajmurphy: what mechanisms are in place for Complaints Panel to learn from past cases? A: CP learnings over the last year are now moving into the P+C review 
(quotes from: https://twitter.com/RSPOtweets)




RSPO P&C 2018
A collection of items, I think are relevant on the new Principles & Criteria 2018 above. "Theory of Change" is important, I am told. Also there is reference to HCS Approach being included? 

In the RSPO Tweets:
  • Panelists discuss one thing they are proud of being achieved in #RSPO P&C revision, with simplification of text being a highlight for Perpetua George - Wilmar #RT15
  • Rosemary Addico @Solidaridadnetw shares a that highlight from the P&C Review is the further inclusion of #smallholders. #RT15 
  • There are now more specific indicators for implementation, and for auditors says @daryll_reads. #RSPO Criteria is now nuanced #RT15 #sustainable #palmoil
  • .@darrelwebb ‘Our vision was to make this the most inclusive P&C to date. Over 10,000 people were reached and given the chance to comment on the review.’ #RT15 #RSPO
  • Olivier Tichit ‘P&C is now looking beyond the production of palm, and instead looking at how to achieve the goal of industry transformation’ @ortichit #RT15 #sustainable #palmoil
  • “We are going in the right direction [with P&C Review], but we need to communicate what we are doing” @ortichit
(quotes from: https://twitter.com/RSPOtweets)


Some audience voting items (n=61, n=30+):
https://twitter.com/RSPOtweets

The sponsors; note the US-based conglomerates. Some relationship with the rise of US membership at RSPO?




The General Assembly

  • Resolution GA14-6a: To confirm the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers as the auditors of the RSPO for the financial year ending 30 June 2018. ADOPTED
  • Resolution GA14-6b: Relocation of the De Facto RSPO Executive Office to Jakarta, Indonesia, http://www.rspo.org/ga/ga14/Resolutions/ResolutionGA14-6b.pdf;  NOT ADOPTED
  • Resolution GA14-6c: Strengthening the RSPO Executive Office, http://www.rspo.org/ga/ga14/Resolutions/ResolutionGA14-6c.pdf; NOT ADOPTED
  • Resolution GA14-6d: Generation of sustainability practices and fair trade for independent mills, http://www.rspo.org/ga/ga14/Resolutions/ResolutionGA14-6d.pdf; RESOLUTION REMOVED 
  • Resolution GA14-6e: Enhancing credibility of the "Annual Communications of Progress", http://www.rspo.org/ga/ga14/Resolutions/ResolutionGA14-6e.pdf;  NOT ADOPTED
  • Resolution GA14-6f: Balanced representation in the RSPO General Assembly voting process based on membership category, http://www.rspo.org/ga/ga14/Resolutions/ResolutionGA14-6f.pdf; ADOPTED.
  • Resolution GA14-6g: Official recognition of IGC endorsed Indonesian RSPO grower member representatives within all RSPO forums, as formally representing the Indonesian Growers Caucus (IGC), http://www.rspo.org/ga/ga14/Resolutions/ResolutionGA14-6g.pdf; ADOPTED
  • Resolution GA14-6h: Relocation of the RSPO Secretariat Office to Jakarta, Indonesia, http://www.rspo.org/ga/ga14/Resolutions/ResolutionGA14-6h.pdf; NOT ADOPTED
  • Resolution GA14-6i: Resolution to Amend The Statutes of the RSPO and the Code of Conduct for members to formalise the role of the Complaints and Appeals Panel, http://www.rspo.org/ga/ga14/Resolutions/ResolutionGA14-6i.pdf; ADOPTED

Source: https://www.rt.rspo.org/c/ga14-notices-announcements31/ and https://twitter.com/RSPOtweets

End of Thurs, Day 3


Mount Agung volcano erupting in Bali – in pictures
https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2017/dec/01/bali-volcano-mount-agung-in-pictures





Climate change perspectives: Landmark case glacier lake (flood) threatened town vs carbon emitter RWE, Exxon-led carbon tax proposal gains more support

4 Dec 2017: Landmark case glacier lake (flood) threatened town vs carbon emitter RWE 

A German court has ruled that it will hear a Peruvian farmer’s case against energy giant RWE over climate change damage in the Andes, a decision labelled by campaigners as a “historic breakthrough”.... He wants RWE to pay €17,000 ($20,000) towards flood defences for his community in Peru’s northern Ancash region. The 37-year-old also wants the German company to reimburse him for the €6,384 he himself has spent on protective measures. Lliuya bases his claims on a 2013 climate study which found that RWE was responsible for around 0.5% of global emissions “since the beginning of industrialisation”. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/30/german-court-to-hear-peruvian-farmers-climate-case-against-rwe

22 Jun 2017: Unilever, Pepsico, Conservation International, The Nature Conservancy join Exxon and other oil majors to support carbon tax proposal


Editor's note: 
  • I have been keeping my eye on carbon tax policy support and note it is rising and now includes more big global corporates (Unilever, Pepsico etc.) and two NGOs (CI and TNC), joining the oil majors. I read the US GOP proposal with much interest and note it is akin to a value added tax system, and this seems to apply to the buyers and not the producers; and will require some sort of social security / tax break (just think of your VAT/GST having a personal relief in your tax bill). This is a neatly crafted device that also had a proposal to exempt big manufacturers from climate liability; https://lnkd.in/fkQS858. However, with regard to the $40  price tag, I'd note a recent study by an oil major economist who said it would take $100 for OECD and $50 for non OECD to actually make an impact on climate change.
  • This may surprise sustainability people I spoke to in Southeast Asia who mention NGOs dead against carbon tax/trading. On the sidelines of the Peat Congress I attended last year, I did hear NGOs saying this has to come (and not CI, TNC). I also heard pro-carbon tax strongly from policy influencers in Singapore in 2016, and no surprise Singapore has a policy now, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/budget-2017-singapore-to-impose-carbon-tax-on-large-direct-emitt-7595574. So let's see how carbon tax policy evolves in the region.

Exxon, BP and Shell back carbon tax proposal to curb emissions by Oliver Milman 20 June 2017 - Oil giants among numerous firms to support conservative group’s plan. But Greenpeace says: ‘A PR exercise is no cure for decades of deception’ ... The fossil fuel companies announced their backing for the plan alongside other major firms including Unilever, PepsiCo, General Motors and Johnson & Johnson. In a full-page newspaper ad on Tuesday, the companies called for a “consensus climate solution that bridges partisan divides, strengthens our economy and protects our shared environment”. Exxon and the others were listed as founding members of the plan, alongside the green groups Conservation International and the Nature Conservancy. "
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/20/exxon-bp-shell-oil-climate-change?


Full page in Wall Street Journal

source: https://www.clcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Climate_Leadership_Council_WSJ_Ad.pdf



12 Feb 2017: Looking at reactions to Republic Insiders $40 carbon tax proposal

Editor's note: This is quite a policy idea.Starts at $40 with a significant social security payout (reads like how GST is implemented), a border tax adjustment, eliminate regulations to cut emissions, help the US meet the Paris climate obligations, and oil and gas gets immunity. 


Prominent Republicans Pitch Carbon-Tax Plan to Top Trump Aides by Jennifer A Dlouhy  and Margaret Talev February 8, 2017 -  "This is not a climate proposal; it’s a tax proposal," said Thomas Pyle, head of the free-market advocacy group American Energy Alliance. "There’s no need to trade Obama’s climate regulations for a carbon tax. Donald Trump has already promised to undo them." https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-08/prominent-republicans-begin-push-to-tax-carbon-cut-regulations

James Baker's carbon tax pitch to White House -- Former Secretary of State James Baker speaks to CNN's John King in his first television interview since President Donald Trump took office.Source: CNN http://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/02/08/carbon-tax-james-baker-erin-sot.cnn

Republican Insiders Push for a Carbon Tax at White House Meeting by SEAN MORAN 8 Feb 2017 -- Beltway Republicans, including former Treasury Secretary James Baker, lobby National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn to enact a carbon tax at the White House today. Ivanka Trump, her husband Jared Kushner, and Trump’s Chief of Staff Reince Priebus are also expected to attend....At $40 per ton of carbon, the plan would raise $300 billion in revenue, and add 36 cents per gallon to gas prices. James Baker has said that they would reallocate the funds in the form of rebates, a family of four would receive $2,000 a year......@thehill Your story about me & the carbon tax is absolutely incorrect—it is just the opposite. I will not support or endorse a carbon tax! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2016....  http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/08/republican-insiders-push-carbon-tax-white-house-meeting/

Senior Republican statesmen propose replacing Obama’s climate policies with a carbon tax By Chris Mooney and Juliet Eilperin February 8 -- Despite the group’s impeccable Republican credentials — Baker, Paulson and Schultz served as treasury secretaries and Feldstein and Mankiw served as CEA chairs under GOP presidents — the proposal faces long odds. Many congressional Republicans are adamantly against a tax increase of any kind, and President Trump repeatedly emphasized that he is far more interested in promoting the extraction of fossil fuels in the United States than curbing the nation’s carbon emissions.... A proposed carbon tax also failed recently in a ballot initiative in Washington state, in part because it divided the left — with some liberals wanting to use any revenue to invest in clean energy and other social causes rather than to return it to the public. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/07/senior-republican-leaders-propose-replacing-obamas-climate-plans-with-a-carbon-tax/?utm_term=.619f3d33a8d2

A group of prominent Republicans just launched a longshot bid for a carbon tax By Hannah Hess, E&E News Feb. 8, 2017 -- The four-pillar proposal calls for a revenue-neutral carbon tax starting at $40 per ton.... Dubbed the "Republican climate jailbreak strategy," the plan calls for taxes to be collected at the source — on oil at the refinery, for instance — then built into the prices for products made from that material. Revenue would be returned to taxpayers, amounting to about $2,000 annually for a family of four. "Two-thirds of American households will receive more in carbon dividends than they will pay directly in carbon taxes," said Martin Feldstein, who served as chairman of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers....http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/group-prominent-republicans-just-launched-longshot-bid-carbon-tax


9 Feb 2017: US Republican group calls for $40 carbon tax and border adjustments, US military adjusts for climate change, China glaciers retreat, NOAA data question

Editor's note: I have for a while now observed rising support for a carbon tax. So the question is, what products would be among the US carbon-taxed domestic goods, and what imports may be affected. $40 falls short of BP's estimates of $100 for OECD and $50 for non-OECD that is needed to have some impact on climate change. How will this cascade to policy elsewhere? China is starting domestic carbon trading soon - what is China's view on imports (if US goes for this, how will it adjust its policy)? I was chatting to two highly-regarded US-based atmospheric scientists about it this morning. Thanks to Monique for pointing out the issues of China glacier retreat and the point of no return.

‘A Conservative Climate Solution’: Republican Group Calls for Carbon Tax By JOHN SCHWARTZFEB. 7, 2017 -- The Baker proposal would substitute the carbon tax for the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan, a complex set of rules to regulate emissions which President Trump has pledged to repeal and which is tied up in court challenges, as well as other climate regulations. At an initial price of $40 per ton of carbon dioxide produced, the tax would raise an estimated $200 billion to $300 billion a year, with the rate scheduled to rise over time....  The tax would be collected where the fossil fuels enter the economy, such as the mine, well or port; the money raised would be returned to consumers in what the group calls a “carbon dividend” amounting to an estimated $2,000 a year for the average family of four.... The plan would also incorporate what are known as “border adjustments” to increase the costs for products from other countries that do not have a similar system in place, an idea intended to address the problem of other “free-rider” nations gaining a price advantage over carbon-taxed domestic goods. The proposal would also insulate fossil fuel companies against possible lawsuits over the damage their products have caused to the environment....It is also unclear how the plan will be received by the Trump administration. Stephen K. Bannon, the senior counselor to the president, has shown little interest in appeasing establishment Republicans. Breitbart News, which Mr. Bannon led before joining the Trump White House staff, has been outspoken in denying the science of climate change.... Whatever the fate of the plan, it is a notable moment because it puts influential members of the Republican establishment on the record as favoring action on climate change — a position that is publicly held by few Republicans at the national level, though many quietly say they would like to throw off the orthodoxy in the party that opposes action.... A survey taken just after the 2016 election by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication found that 66 percent of registered voters supported a carbon tax on fossil fuel companies, with the money used to reduce personal taxes. The party breakdown for that support was 81 percent of Democrats, 60 percent of independents and 49 percent of Republicans. Even among Trump voters, 48 percent support taxing fossil fuel companies, according to the Yale program.... “It’s really important that we Republicans have a seat at the table when people start talking about climate change,” Mr. Baker said. He said that, like many Republicans, he was skeptical that human activity was the main cause of warming, but that the stakes were too high for inaction. “I don’t accept the idea that it’s all man made,” he said, “but I do accept that the risks are sufficiently great that we need to have an insurance policy.”... As for the likelihood of success of his plan, “I have no idea what the prospects are.”...https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/science/a-conservative-climate-solution-republican-group-calls-for-carbon-tax.html?_r=0

A Conservative Case for Climate Action By MARTIN S. FELDSTEIN, TED HALSTEAD and N. GREGORY MANKIWFEB. 8, 2017 -- By contrast, an ideal climate policy would reduce carbon emissions, limit regulatory intrusion, promote economic growth, help working-class Americans and prove durable when the political winds change. We have laid out such a plan in a paper to be released Wednesday by the Climate Leadership Council....Our co-authors include James A. Baker III, Treasury secretary for President Ronald Reagan and secretary of state for President George H. W. Bush; Henry M. Paulson Jr., Treasury secretary for President George W. Bush; George P. Shultz, Treasury secretary for President Richard Nixon and secretary of state for Mr. Reagan; Thomas Stephenson, a partner at Sequoia Capital, a venture-capital firm; and Rob Walton, who recently completed 23 years as chairman of Walmart....Our own analysis finds that a carbon dividends program starting at $40 per ton would achieve nearly twice the emissions reductions of all Obama-era climate regulations combined. Provided all four elements are put in force in unison, this plan could meet America’s commitment under the Paris climate agreement, all by itself. Democrats and environmentalists may bemoan the accompanying regulatory rollback. But they should pause to consider the environmental value proposition....https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/opinion/a-conservative-case-for-climate-action.html

President Trump, Military Split on Climate Change February 02, 2017 -- For nine decades, the Sewells Point tide gauge or its ancestors have been recording the sea level off Pier 6 at Naval Station Norfolk. The story it tells is clear. Between naturally sinking land and global warming driven sea level rise, the water is a half-meter higher than it was at the beginning of the last century.... That's creating problems at the world's largest naval base.In rough weather, damaging surf slams against electrical, water and steam lines under the piers where the Navy docks its Atlantic fleet. High waves can keep sailors from getting to the ships. Even getting on base is getting harder as "nuisance flooding" becomes a regular problem, cutting off roads around the city of Norfolk....The commander-in-chief, President Donald Trump, has called global warming a hoax, although he now says there is "some connectivity" between human activity and climate change. The Pentagon, on the other hand, takes the risks of climate change seriously.... "The military has seen climate change as a problem since 2003, if not earlier," says retired Army Gen. Gerry Galloway, now with the Center for Climate and Security. National security threats from climate change are included in eight defense and intelligence documents published before President Obama took office, according to the center. "Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world," a group of high-ranking former military officials wrote in a landmark 2007 report.... At Naval Station Norfolk, they already are adapting to the realities they see coming. Newer piers are built higher, with the utility lines under a protected concrete deck. http://www.voanews.com/a/president-trump-military-split-on-climate-change/3702979.html

China says important glacier is melting due to climate change  Jun 8, 2016 -- A glacier that is one of the largest at the source of China's Yangtze River is fast retreating because of climate change, state media said. The Jianggudiru Glacier on Geladaindong Mountain in a remote part of the western province of Qinghai has shrunk 34 meters (38 yards) over the past six years, Pu Jianchen, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told the Xinhua news agency. The glacier started to shrink slowly in the 1970s, then expanded between 1989 and 1994 before retreating more quickly from 1995, Pu said, Xinhua reported late on Tuesday. Yang Xin, president of the Green River Environmental Protection Association, told Xinhua the glacier retreated two meters a year in the 1980s and 1990s but about six meters a year over the past several years. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-environment-climatechange-idUSKCN0YU0B4

Chinese Glacier’s Retreat Signals Trouble for Asian Water Supply By EDWARD WONG DECEMBER 8, 2015 -- China, which remains the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas, pledged last year to begin lowering carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, and in Paris this month, President Xi Jinping reiterated his resolve to help slow climate change. There are no vocal climate change deniers among top Chinese officials..... “China is more prone to the adverse effects of climate change because China is vast, has diverse types of ecology and has relatively fragile natural conditions,” Du Xiangwan, chairman of the National Expert Committee on Climate Change, wrote in the report’s introduction.... anishing glaciers raise urgent concerns beyond Tibet and China. By one estimate, the 46,000 glaciers of the Third Pole region help sustain 1.5 billion people in 10 countries — its waters flowing to places as distant as the tropical Mekong Delta of Vietnam, the hills of eastern Myanmar and the southern plains of Bangladesh. Scattered across nearly two million square miles, these glaciers are receding at an ever-quickening pace, producing a rise in levels of rivers and lakes in the short term and threatening Asia’s water supply in the long run.....https://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/12/09/world/asia/chinese-glaciers-retreat-signals-trouble-for-asian-water-supply.html

World's carbon dioxide concentration teetering on the point of no return - Future in which global concentration of CO2 is permanently above 400 parts per million looms Carbon dioxide from a coal-fired power plant 11 May 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/11/worlds-carbon-dioxide-concentration-teetering-on-the-point-of-no-return

Climate change escalating so fast it is 'beyond point of no return' - New study rewrites two decades of research and author says we are 'beyond point of no return' http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/donald-trump-climate-change-policy-global-warming-expert-thomas-crowther-a7450236.html


And here's something from the denial camp

Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data By David Rose for The Mail on Sunday 4 February 2017 -- The Mail on Sunday can reveal a landmark paper exaggerated global warming. It was rushed through and timed to influence the Paris agreement on climate change. America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration broke its own rules. The report claimed the pause in global warming never existed, but it was based on misleading, ‘unverified’ data... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html#ixzz4Y9uDqUUC


26 Jan 2017: Trump advisors, Musk & Tillerson are pro-carbon tax, but it is an unpopular idea in the US


Editor's note: GHG/carbon policy pressure is likely to become tougher over time in voluntary standards, E.g., RSPO has expanded count of GHG emissions and it is porbable that emissions from fire will come to be included too. Climate change concerns are expected to ratchet up policy pressure and oil majors like BP reckon that the carbon price has to be set at $100 for OECD and $50 for non-OECD to have any real impact on climate change. However, a climate-sceptical Trump Administration may implement shifts in climate policy with the expected head of the EPA reflecting this. However, it is interesting that business-media is writing of Trump Advisors, Elon Mask and Rex Tillerson are apparently in support of a carbon tax. However, the Rockefeller Foundation vs Exxon story below notes that Tillerson reviewed climate change from 2006, he continued to fund climate sceptics while voicing on carbon tax (a still unpopular idea).

Musk’s Surprise Rapport With Trump Means 40% Rally for Tesla by Dana Hull January 26, 2017, Plants cast Tesla as ‘poster child’ for Made in USA: analyst. Shares rise as Model 3 progresses, concerns of 2016 subside. -- Musk serves on the president’s economic advisory board and regularly meets with either Trump or his top aides. He was one of a dozen chief executive officers who met with Trump at the White House on Monday to talk manufacturing, taxes and trade. “Elon Musk has an important line of communication to Donald Trump,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note last week as he raised his price target to $305 from $242. “This strategic relationship between Tesla leadership and the new administration is an important development.”.... Musk, 45, and Trump, 70, may seem an odd pair. Before the election, the South Africa-born entrepreneur said on CNBC that Trump “doesn’t seem to have the sort of character that reflects well” on the U.S. and urged people to revolt and fight the “propaganda” of the fossil fuel industry. Trump has chosen former Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson to be his secretary of state and Scott Pruitt, an ally of the oil and gas industry, to lead the Environmental Protection Agency....  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/musk-s-surprising-rapport-with-trump-yields-40-rally-for-tesla

Elon Musk Floated the Idea of a Carbon Tax to Trump, an Official Says by Kevin Cirilli January 27, 2017 -- Issue raised at White House meeting this week on manufacturing. Idea has been backed by secretary of state nominee Tillerson. -- Musk, also CEO of SpaceX, has publicly supported Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson. While chief executive at Exxon, Tillerson acknowledged the climate is changing and described a carbon tax as the most efficient means of embedding the cost of carbon in economic decisions from oil companies to consumers.  Exxon Mobil has lobbied on Capitol Hill for a revenue-neutral carbon tax to take the place of an array of environmental regulations that raise the cost of fossil fuels. A carbon tax could be imposed on oil, gas and coal companies, or on gasoline or homeowners’ power bills. To make it revenue-neutral and to avoid an undue burden on the poor, money raised by carbon taxes could be returned to taxpayers, possibly through periodic dividends....Although a carbon tax has long been favored by some economists as the most straightforward way to put a cost on carbon dioxide, it is eschewed by many of the conservative advocates guiding Trump’s energy and environment policy...  https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-26/tesla-s-musk-said-to-float-idea-of-a-carbon-tax-to-trump-ceos

The Cost of Carbon - Putting a Price on Pollution By Mathew Carr | Updated Nov 9, 2016 -- When factories belch smoke, everybody pays. Shouldn’t polluters feel the sting? That’s the big idea behind carbon pricing. Putting a price tag on each ton of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere reflects its cost to the environment and fires up the search for the cheapest ways to fight climate change. Many policymakers accept that it’s the way to go, but they can’t agree on the best way to do it. Europe, parts of the U.S. and China use markets where companies buy and sell permits to pollute. So far, it’s not clear if that’s working better than a simple carbon tax....About 15 have a tax, ranging from $3 a metric ton in Mexico to $150 a metric ton in Sweden. China, the world’s biggest emitter, has seven pilot trading programs that aren’t yet cutting pollution levels but aim to build up the infrastructure needed to start a national system by 2017. U.S. President Barack Obama tried and failed to start a national cap-and-trade system during his first term. Since the idea of a national carbon tax is unpopular in the U.S., he’s turned to direct regulation of power plants instead. Pollution levels have fallen in many of the areas covered by carbon trading, though much of the drop is attributed to the global recession and the lower price of natural gas, which is cleaner than coal or oil....

https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/carbon-markets-2-0


24 Jan 2017: Rockeller Family Fund vs Exxon, CLUA grants list focus on biofuels and bionergy

Editor's note: I am finally getting down to reading, The Rockefeller Family Fund vs. Exxon by David Kaiser and Le Wasserman, The New York Review of Books, 8 and 22 Dec 2016. Recall that there have been news headlines on Exxon being investigated and sued about apparently hiding knowledge about climate change. Not sure if this matters in the Trump era, but some news links are at the bottom of this posting. Interesting to look at Climate and Land Use Alliance (CLUA) grants list. As noted earlier, it covers only a few US foundations and does not include the Rockeller Family Fund and does not seem to have much in the list on the core oil & gas industry.

  • The Rockefeller Family Fund vs. Exxon by David Kaiser and Lee Wasserman DECEMBER 8, 2016  http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/12/08/the-rockefeller-family-fund-vs-exxon/

  • The Rockefeller Family Fund Takes on ExxonMobil by David Kaiser and Lee Wasserman DECEMBER 22, 2016  http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/12/22/rockefeller-family-fund-takes-on-exxon-mobil/



CLUA grants list focus on biofuels and bioenergy

CLUA's reports grants on biofuels and bioenergy, with a few grants on oil reduction (immediately below) and clean energy (see examples below, mostly in the biofuels and bioenergy).

Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) – Packard Grant PURPOSE: to examine oil use in California, Oregon, and Washington and identify strategies needed to meet a 50‐percent oil reduction target by 2030 AMOUNT: $50,000.00 DURATION: 3 months / Start date: June 2015

Fuel (mostly to do with biofuels), a few examples:

  • ActionAid USA – Ford Grant PURPOSE: to identify, develop, and promote policies that mitigate the impact of biofuels production on food security, land use, and climate change AMOUNT: $250,000.00 DURATION: 12 months / Start date: July 2015
  • ActionAid USA – Packard Grant PURPOSE: to reduce the negative climate, food security, and land‐use impacts of biofuels, with a focus on U.S. and international policy AMOUNT: $800,000.00 DURATION: 23 months / Start date: November 2015
  • ActionAid USA – Packard Grant PURPOSE: to reduce the negative climate, food security, and land use impacts of biofuels, with particular attention to the expanding use of ethanol AMOUNT: $400,000.00 DURATION: 12 months / Start date: October 2014

Energy (mostly biomass / bio energy), a few examples:
  • Carnegie Institution of Washington – Packard Grant PURPOSE: to develop a community‐based assessment of the prospects for biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to meet global climate mitigation goals AMOUNT: $200,000.00 DURATION: 12 months / Start date: July 2016
  • Climate Policy Initiative – Packard Grant PURPOSE: to encourage informed policy choices in Indonesia by building an empirical platform for future, in depth, qualitative and quantitative analysis concerning biofuels and related renewable energy policies AMOUNT: $50,000.00 DURATION: 2 months / Start date: September 2015
  • Dogwood Alliance – Packard Grant PURPOSE: to limit the expansion of a whole‐tree biomass‐power industry in the American South in favor of low‐carbon energy alternatives AMOUNT: $500,000.00 DURATION: 23 months / Start date: November 2015
  • Fern Foundation – Packard Grant PURPOSE: to ensure the European Union has bioenergy policies based on sustainable supply and that encourage reductions in industrial emissions and sustainable land and forest management AMOUNT: $460,000.00 DURATION: 24 months / Start date: April 2016

Exxon headlines on alleged climate change cover-up
  • Class-Action Lawsuit Adds to ExxonMobil's Climate Change Woes - Investors allege Exxon should have adjusted its accounting of oil reserves based on what it knows about climate change and coming climate action. by David Hasemyer NOV 21, 2016 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18112016/exxon-climate-change-research-oil-reserves-stranded-assets-lawsuit
  • Exxon Adds New York to Suit in Bid to Stop Climate Change Probe by Tom Korosec November 12, 2016 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-12/exxon-adds-new-york-to-suit-in-bid-to-stop-climate-change-probe
  • Exxon Mobil Sued Over Climate Change Cover-Up - The lawsuit alleges the oil giant’s terminal near Boston continues to pollute rivers and communities.  09/29/2016 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/exxonmobil-lawsuit-conservation-law-foundation-climate-change_us_57ec1512e4b024a52d2c5ae5 
  • Can ExxonMobil Be Found Liable for Misleading the Public on Climate Change? - Scientists at the biggest U.S. oil company understood as early as anyone that fossil fuel emissions were heating up the earth’s atmosphere. by Paul Barrett  and Matthew Philips September 7, 2016 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-07/will-exxonmobil-have-to-pay-for-misleading-the-public-on-climate-change

 Excerpts from the Rockefeller Family Fund vs Exxon, Part 1 and Part 2

Our criticism carries a certain historical irony. John D. Rockefeller founded Standard Oil, and ExxonMobil is Standard Oil’s largest direct descendant. In a sense we were turning against the company where most of the Rockefeller family’s wealth was created. (Other members of the Rockefeller family have been trying to get ExxonMobil to change its behavior for over a decade.) Approached by some reporters for comment, an ExxonMobil spokesman replied, “It’s not surprising that they’re divesting from the company since they’re already funding a conspiracy against us.” What we had funded was an investigative journalism project. With help from other public charities and foundations, including the Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF), we paid for a team of independent reporters from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism to try to determine what Exxon and other US oil companies had really known about climate science, and when. Such an investigation seemed promising because Exxon, in particular, has been a leader of the movement to deny the facts of climate change. Often working indirectly through front groups, it sponsored many of the scientists and think tanks that have sought to obfuscate the scientific consensus about the changing climate, and it participated in those efforts through its paid advertisements and the statements of its executives.

It seemed to us, however, that for business reasons, a company as sophisticated and successful as Exxon would have needed to know the difference between its own propaganda and scientific reality. If it turned out that Exxon and other oil companies had recognized the validity of climate science even while they were funding the climate denial movement, that would, we thought, help the public understand how artificially manufactured and disingenuous the “debate” over climate change has always been. In turn, we hoped this understanding would build support for strong policies addressing the crisis of global warming.....

We didn’t expect ExxonMobil to admit that it had been at fault. It is one of the largest companies in the world—indeed, if its revenues are compared to the gross domestic products of nations, it has one of the world’s larger economies, bigger than Austria’s, for example, or Thailand’s —and it has a reputation for unusual determination in promoting its selfinterest. One way or another, we expected it to fight back—most likely, we thought, by proxy, through its surrogates in the rightwing press and in Congress.

Sure enough, various bloggers have been calling for “the Rockefellers” to be prosecuted by the government for “conspiracy” against Exxon under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act. (Such lines of attack are being tested and refined, and we expect they will soon be repeated in journals with broader readership.) And in May, Texas Republican Lamar Smith, the chair of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, sent a letter to the RFF and seven other NGOs (including the RBF, 350.org, Greenpeace, and the Union of Concerned Scientists), as well as all seventeen AGs who said they might investigate ExxonMobil. He accused us of engaging in “a coordinated effort to deprive companies, nonprofit organizations, and scientists of their First Amendment rights and ability to fund and conduct scientific research free from intimidation and threats of prosecution,” and demanded that we turn over to him all private correspondence between any of the recipients of his letter relating to any po ential climate change investigation. When we all refused, twice, to surrender any such correspondence, Smith subpoenaed Schneiderman, Healey, and all eight NGOs for the same documents

Large oil companies must possess considerable scientific expertise. In that respect as in others, Exxon has always been an industry leader: the company today says it employs about 16,000 scientists and engineers. And the basic mechanism of climate change is relatively straightforward, long established science. In the 1850s, John Tyndall discovered that atmospheric carbon dioxide acts as a “greenhouse gas,”....So it is no surprise that by the late 1970s and early 1980s, Exxon scientists largely understood climate change—not only its basic mechanism but many of its implications, including its potential implications for the oil business—and had explained it to the company’s leaders. 

Senior Exxon scientist Henry Shaw warned management that according to the predictions of the National Academy of Sciences, global warming, not any lack of supply, would force humankind to stop burning fossil fuels....

In 1982, an Exxon environmental affairs manager named Marvin Glaser wrote a thirty nine page primer on climate change that he distributed widely among management....Glaser warned, “all biological systems are likely to be affected” and “there are some potentially catastrophic events that must be considered,” including an expected “dramatic impact on soil moisture, and in turn, on agriculture,” and, eventually, the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet, which would flood “much of the US East Coast, including the State of Florida and Washington D.C.” He believed that “potentially serious climate problems are not likely to occur until the late 21st century,” but added, “once the effects are measurable, they might not be reversible.”

Cohen’s “clear scientific consensus” notwithstanding, such lingering questions meant that scientists still disagreed about precisely how much the climate would change, and how quickly. The computerized models they were building to forecast those effects were also considered much more reliable in predicting average global changes than specific regional ones (except near the poles, where almost everyone agreed that warming would be particularly severe). None of these legitimate uncertainties in climate science, however, implied any doubt about its main conclusions: that the changing climate would soon have dramatic impacts on the earth, and that it was primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. 

So, with its extraordinary resources, Exxon became a corporate leader in climate science. It equipped its largest supertanker as a research vessel, measuring CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and at different depths of the ocean all along the ship’s route. It also became expert in computerized climate modeling, not only to evaluate the predictions of others but to help improve such models. Ultimately, one of its scientists published nearly fifty peerreviewed papers about various technical aspects of climate change. 

The company’s early findings may not have been quite what management was looking for, however..... Cohen believed that “our ethical responsibility is to permit the publication of our research in the scientific literature; indeed to do otherwise would be a breach of Exxon’s public position and ethical credo on honesty and integrity.” 

Then, however, in 1988, the United States was struck by the costliest drought in its history.... Suddenly the notion of global warming was everywhere—Time named “Endangered Earth” its “Planet of the Year.” And Exxon’s public position changed dramatically.

In August 1988, an Exxon public affairs manager drafted a memo called “The Greenhouse Effect.” He acknowledged that “the principal greenhouse gases are byproducts of fossil fuel combustion.” However, he wrote, the “Exxon Position” would now be to “emphasize the uncertainty in scientific conclusions regarding the potential enhanced greenhouse effect.” 

What did that mean? In 1989 Duane LeVine, Exxon’s manager of science and strategy development, told the company’s board of directors that the scientific consensus was now that global temperatures would rise by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by the middle of the twenty-first century, with “enormous potential global impacts.” But, he added, “arguments that we can’t tolerate delay and must act now can lead to irreversible and costly Draconian steps.” So Exxon would “extend the science,” convincing policymakers and the public that climate change was still insufficiently understood and that more research needed to be done before significant action could be warranted. Meanwhile, it would emphasize the cost of reducing carbon emissions. 

The tobacco industry found and funded scientists who, “cherrypicking data and focusing on unexplained or anomalous details,” would argue that the causal link between smoking and cancer had not been proven.... But the industry also funded a network of “freemarket,” antiregulatory think tanks to repeat and amplify the claims of its scientists. (It tried to hide the fact that it was paying these scientists and think tanks, often routing its payments through front groups like law firms or rightwing foundations.)

Then the industry manufactured an artificial “‘debate,’ convincing the mass media that responsible journalists had an obligation to present ‘both sides’ of it.” The industry didn’t need to win this debate, its leaders realized; only to keep it going. “Doubt is our product,” explained a tobacco executive’s 1969 memo....

As we know, this campaign ultimately failed, but it succeeded for an astonishingly long time. The tobacco industry didn’t begin losing court cases until the 1990s, some four decades after realizing that its product killed its customers. In the meantime, it made enormous profits.

When Exxon began to “emphasize the uncertainty” of climate science, the scientists who espoused its positions were often veterans of those earlier denial campaigns. Among them were Fred Seitz, Fred Singer, Robert Jastrow, and Bill Nierenberg. They had all been reputable, prominent physicists during the cold war, but they eventually became, essentially, professional deniers of science, arguing on one issue after another that findings harmful to industry were “unproven,” “junk science.” Oreskes and Conway believe that their motivation was less mercenary than ideological, although they were often paid by the organizations they directed or worked with, which in turn were supported by the industries they defended. They were all fervent anti-Communists and ardent freemarket purists. 

Then the fake debate they created was broadcast further and given an additional veneer of credibility by journalists, some of whom were persuaded by spurious arguments about the need for “balanced” reporting, even on issues the scientific community considered settled, and some of whom, it turned out, were simply in Exxon’s pay.  

Exxon didn’t always rely on the writings of such scientists. For decades it published frequent “advertorials” on the editorial page of The New York Times, questioning the reality of climate change or its human cause, or arguing that predictions about global warming were too unreliable to justify efforts to prevent it.

In 1998 Exxon participated in a $6 million public relations campaign by the American Petroleum Institute (a trade association which Exxon heavily influenced and supported) to prevent the United States from ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 

Still, ExxonMobil (as it became in 1999) continued to spend extraordinary sums on lobbying, directly and through trade associations: $240 million since 1998....And in 2001, soon after President George W. Bush was inaugurated, the company’s chief lobbyist sent a memo to the White House making several requests. He asked the new administration to get rid of the scientist who chaired the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN body that is the world’s leading authority on the subject. He also asked that a number of other scientists and officials be fired from their jobs in the White House and the State Department, to be replaced by known climate skeptics....ExxonMobil got its wishes... 


In 1980, for example, Exxon paid $400 million for the rights to the Natuna natural gas field in the South China Sea. But company scientists soon realized that the field contained unusually high concentrations of carbon dioxide, and concluded in 1984 that extracting its gas would make it “the world’s largest point source emitter of CO2 [, which] raises concern for the possible incremental impact of Natuna on the CO2 greenhouse problem.” The company left Natuna undeveloped. Exxon’s John Woodward, who wrote an internal report on the field in 1981, told InsideClimate News, “They were being farsighted. They weren’t sure when CO2 controls would be required and how it would affect the economics of the project.”

...any major development with a life span of say 30–40 years will need to assess the impacts of potential global warming. This is particularly true of Arctic and offshore projects in Canada, where warming will clearly affect sea ice, icebergs, permafrost and sea levels.... Croasdale based these projections on the same climate models that Exxon’s leaders spent the next fifteen years publicly disparaging. But following his warnings that rising seas would threaten buildings on the coast, bigger waves would threaten offshore drilling platforms, and thawing permafrost would threaten pipelines, Exxon began reinforcing its Arctic infrastructure.

 “‘So don’t believe for a minute that ExxonMobil doesn’t think climate change is real,’ said a former manager…. ‘They were using climate change as a source of insight into exploration.’”

Soon after Rex Tillerson replaced Lee Raymond as CEO at the start of 2006, he created a secret task force to reconsider the company’s approach to climate change... In January 2009—twelve days before President Obama’s inauguration would situate the company in much less welcoming political territory—Tillerson announced that ExxonMobil had become concerned enough about climate change to support a carbon tax.

The climate measure then under active discussion in Washington, however, was a cap-and-trade bill. There was almost no political support for a carbon tax at the time, and Tillerson’s announcement may have been meant to divert support from the reform that seemed most plausible.12 Indeed, since then, although ExxonMobil continues to claim that it supports a carbon tax, it has given much more money to members of Congress who oppose such a tax than to those who endorse one.13 As of last year it was still funding organizations that deny global warming or fight policies proposed to address it.

The Securities and Exchange Commission requires companies to disclose known business risks to their investors, and Exxon’s leaders have been acutely conscious of the changing climate’s danger to the oil business for almost forty years. The company didn’t start telling its shareholders about that danger until 2007,16 however, and in our opinion has never disclosed its full scope.... In 2014 it stated, “We are confident that none of our hydrocarbon reserves are now or will become ‘stranded.’”21 Because it is a matter of the highest urgency that humanity find a way to adopt the IPCC’s global carbon budget, however, it seems to us that ExxonMobil has been much too sanguine about its business prospects.

(A 1980 American Petroleum Institute meeting in which Exxon participated concluded that at a “3% per annum growth rate of CO2, a 2.5° C rise [in average global temperature] brings world economic growth to a halt in about 2025.”)47 Conflict over dwindling resources will increase around the world; so, dramatically, will human migration and political instability. 

As a group of retired American generals and admirals who studied the national security implications of climate change concluded in 2007: Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes increasingly scarce, and large populations move in search of resources. Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism, and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies.... It is true that scientists still disagree about precisely how severe the effects of climate change will be, and when. But, the generals and admirals wrote, “As military leaders, we know we cannot wait for certainty. Failing to act because a warning isn’t precise enough is unacceptable.”

Just as the tobacco industry gained decades of huge profits by obfuscating the dangers of smoking, the oil industry secured decades of profits—in Exxon’s case, some of the largest profits of any corporation in history—by helping to create a fake controversy over climate science that deceived and victimized many policymakers, as well as much of the public. The bogus science it paid for through front groups, which was then repeated and validated by industry-funded, right-wing think tanks and a too-easily cowed press, worked just as well for ExxonMobil as it had for R.J. Reynolds. A 2004 study by Naomi Oreskes in Science examined 928 peer-reviewed papers on climate science and found that not a single one disputed global warming’s existence or its human cause.50 But according to a recent Yale University study, only 11 percent of Americans understand that there is a scientific consensus on these points.


Oil and macro: US net oil imports lowest since 1990, Saudi 'goosing' oil prices? China's lending crackdown, Brent Crude (ICE) $63.07

 

 




1 Dec 2017: US net oil imports lowest since 1990, Saudi 'goosing' oil prices? China's lending crackdown, Brent Crude (ICE) $63.07


Hey OPEC, the World's Largest Oil Consumer Needs a Lot Less Oil By Laura Blewitt  and Javier Blas November 30, 2017 -- U.S. net oil imports, including crude and refined products, last week dropped to just 1.77 million barrels a day, the lowest level in data going back to 1990, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. That puts the country on track toward its lowest monthly imports since before the Arab oil embargo of 1973. Weekly net imports peaked in November 2005 at more than 14 million barrels a day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/hey-opec-the-world-s-largest-oil-consumer-needs-a-lot-less-oil

Aramco IPO: The Right Company At The Wrong Time Nov.13.17 by Albert Goldson -- An Aramco IPO represents a political tripwire endangering Saudi sovereignty over their oil resources. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s internal crackdown consolidates his power and gives him an open road to his ascendency as Saudi king before the November 30th OPEC meeting. Saudi Arabia’s deliberate inflammatory spat with Iran is misdirection from their internal political shakeup that is simultaneously ‘goosing’ oil prices to their benefit. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4124280-aramco-ipo-right-company-wrong-time

China's Lending Crackdown Is Notable for Three Reasons. The platforms have mushroomed from fewer than 10 to more than 2,000, but only a few hundred operate with government-issued permits, By Junheng Li November 30, 2017.... Although the measures haven't been made public, our industry checks suggest three notable changes. First, the issuance of new licenses to online micro-loan platforms is being suspended, suggesting that regulators are scrutinizing online lending practices. Second, banks and bank-holding companies are being told not to buy loans underwritten by online platforms because such assets are deemed too risky. Third, turning the loans into securities will be forbidden because regulators believe securitization amplifies risks and gives investors less of an incentive to perform due diligence on the underlying assets.    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-30/china-s-lending-crackdown-is-notable-for-three-reasons

15 Jun 2017: Oil traders talk of a buyer’s market for light-sweet crude, China targets financial risk, lack of new safe-haven assets, Singapore feud, Exxon and climate change, Brent Crude (ICE) $46.95

Fed Lifts Rates, Sets Out Plan to Shrink Assets - The Federal Reserve said it would raise short-term interest rates and spelled out in greater detail its plans to start slowly shrinking its $4.5 trillion portfolio of bonds and other assets this year http://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/federal-reserve-june-meeting

Anbang Shows Billionaires Should Be Nervous in Xi's New China by Keith Zhai  and Ting Shi June 14, 2017 -- Insurance giant’s chairman mysteriously absent from company, Xi targets financial risk, asserts power before party congress https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-14/anbang-shows-billionaires-should-be-nervous-in-xi-s-new-china

SIBLINGS OF SINGAPORE PM FEAR FOR THEIR SAFETY, ACCUSING HIM OF HARASSMENT AND TRASHING LEE KUAN YEW’S VALUES - ‘We feel big brother omnipresent. We fear the use of the organs of state against us’ BY BHAVAN JAIPRAGAS 14 JUN 2017 http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2098224/siblings-singapore-pm-fear-their-safety-accusing-him-harassment

The Lonely Drifting Oil Tanker That Signals OPEC's Struggle by Laura Hurst  and Javier Blas June 13, 2017, 7:57 PM GMT+8 June 14, 2017, 1:36 AM GMT+8 -- Atlantic oil market oversupplied on Nigeria, Libya production. Oil traders talk of a buyer’s market for light, sweet crude... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-13/the-lonely-drifting-oil-tanker-that-signals-opec-s-struggle

Gasoline’s Unusual Summer Stockpile Surge Weighs on Oil By Laura Blewitt June 15, 2017 -- Gasoline inventories are moving in the wrong direction this summer, rising the most in the first two weeks of June since 2001. The U.S. is hoarding more than 242 million barrels of gasoline, the highest for this time of year in weekly data going back to 1990. The surge in stockpiles sent gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange plunging to the lowest since late November at $1.4294 a gallon and pulled crude oil below $45 a barrel.—With Michael Roschnotti https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-14/gasoline-s-unusual-summer-stockpile-surge-weighs-on-oil

The Global Economy Is Rebounding, But There’s One Big Problem by Chris Anstey  and Enda Curran June 14, 2017, 12:01 AM GMT+8 June 14, 2017, 2:26 PM GMT+8
There’s a dark cloud building behind the world’s best period of synchronous growth among developed and emerging economies this decade -- one that in time could rain down volatility in global markets... The problem, identified by strategist and hedge fund manager Stephen Jen, is a deepening imbalance in the lack of new safe-haven assets as the world’s output expands. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-13/synchronous-global-recovery-masks-a-deepening-asset-imbalance

Shareholders force ExxonMobil to come clean on cost of climate change: The ExxonMobil resolution, introduced by the New York State Common Retirement Fund, says that the company “should analyze the impacts on ExxonMobil’s oil and gas reserves and resources under a scenario in which reduction in demand results from carbon restrictions and related rules or commitments adopted by governments consistent with the globally agreed upon 2 degree [Celsius] target”. The resolution adds: “This reporting should assess the resilience of the company’s full portfolio of reserves and resources through 2040 and beyond, and address the financial risks associated with such a scenario.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/31/exxonmobil-climate-change-cost-shareholders



13 Feb 2017: Asia's potential trade hot spots, India oil demand plunges on cash ban 

Asia's Potential Trade Hot Spots February 13, 2017 -- Most of Asia has largely escaped President Trump's glare on trade, but he may yet come looking. The U.S. runs trade deficits with many of its partners in the region. Bloomberg's Haslinda Amin reports on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-02-13/asia-s-potential-trade-hot-spots

These Countries Could Be Trump's Next Trade War Targets by David Tweed -- U.S. has trade deficits with most Asian trade partners. Vietnam surplus with U.S. represents 15% of the economy...https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-12/asia-s-potential-trade-hot-spots-escaping-trump-s-glare-for-now 

China Ready to Step Up Scrutiny of U.S. Firms If Trump Starts Feud: Sources by Bloomberg News January 6, 2017 -- Options include antitrust, tax probes of American companies. Tension has been building in run-up to Trump’s inauguration https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-06/china-said-to-mull-scrutiny-of-u-s-firms-if-trump-starts-feud-ixl2je3s

India’s Oil Demand Plunges Most in 13 Years Amid Cash Ban by Saket Sundria February 13, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-13/india-s-oil-demand-plunges-most-in-13-years-amid-cash-crackdown

12 Feb 2017: China - Companies asked to estimate highest duties they can bear for punitive US tariffs; Malaysia-Thailand have significant good trade surplus with US 

Editor's note: Malaysia and Thailand have significant surplus in trade with US; with each of these two, US faces deficits that are 1/3 of the goods trade deficit that it has with Mexico. From US Census Bureau, ''trade in goods" data: US-Singapore in surplus $8-12b, US deficit trade partners: US-Indonesia $12b, US-Thai $19b, US-Malaysia $22b, US-Mexico $63b, US-EU $130b, US-China $300-360b.


China Said to Assess Impact of Possible Punitive U.S. Tariffs by Bloomberg News February 10, 2017 -- Companies asked to estimate highest duties they can bear, Donald Trump has accused China of unfair trade practices -- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-10/china-said-to-assess-impact-of-possible-punitive-u-s-tariffs

Trump Holds Call With China's XI, Honors One-China Policy February 10, 2017  -- President Donald Trump reaffirmed the U.S.'s long-standing support for the "One-China" policy in his first phone call as president with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Bloomberg's David Tweed reports on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe." (Source: Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-02-10/trump-holds-first-call-with-china-s-xi

OPEC's Amazing and Shortlived Compliance By Julian Lee Feb 12, 2017 -- At 90 percent, it looks like January may be as good as it gets for compliance. We may have another month or so before Saudi Arabia needs to choose between cutting exports or boosting supply, but it is difficult to see overall adherence getting much better without involuntary cuts somewhere due to accident or unrest.  https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-12/don-t-get-used-to-the-amazing-cuts-in-opec-oil-production

How Singapore plans growth in dark globalization mood - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-02-10/how-singapore-plans-growth-on-dark-globalization-mood


26 Jan 2017: Trump Has 1.3 Billion Reasons Not to Pick a Big Fight With China Malaysia-China trade likely to rise to US$100b, China overtakes Japan in Indonesia direct investment, Brent Crude $55.40

Trump Has 1.3 Billion Reasons Not to Pick a Big Fight With China by Bloomberg News January 26, 2017 - Xi has little room to make concessions before party congress, China leaders already fanning national pride, stressing unity https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-25/trump-has-1-3-billion-reasons-not-to-pick-a-big-fight-with-china


Minister: Malaysia-China trade likely to rise to US$100b this year anuary 23, 2017 - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/minister-malaysia-china-trade-likely-to-rise-to-us100b-this-year#sthash.jZqdad0v.dpuf

Hishammuddin: Malacca port not Chinese military naval base January 25, 2017 - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/hishammuddin-malacca-port-not-chinese-military-naval-base#sthash.KMKp19JH.dpuf

China overtakes Japan in Indonesia direct investment - Chinese money flowing into the country grew fivefold from a year ago by WATARU SUZUKI and ERWIDA MAULIA, Nikkei staff writers January 25, 2017; http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/China-overtakes-Japan-in-Indonesia-direct-investment

Chinese billionaire Jack Ma says the US wasted trillions on warfare instead of investing in infrastructure by Jay Yarow 18 Jan 2017 -- Ma called outsourcing a "wonderful" and "perfect" strategy... "The American multinational companies made millions and millions of dollars from globalization," Ma said. "The past 30 years, IBM, Cisco, Microsoft, they've made tens of millions — the profits they've made are much more than the four Chinese banks put together. ... But where did the money go?" ... He said the U.S. is not distributing, or investing, its money properly, and that's why many people in the country feel wracked with economic anxiety. He said too much money flows to Wall Street and Silicon Valley. Instead, the country should be helping the Midwest, and Americans "not good in schooling," too.... http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/18/chinese-billionaire-jack-ma-says-the-us-wasted-trillions-on-warfare-instead-of-investing-in-infrastructure.html

China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy JAN 23, 2017 13 by BRAHMA CHELLANEY  -- Of course, extending loans for infrastructure projects is not inherently bad. But the projects that China is supporting are often intended not to support the local economy, but to facilitate Chinese access to natural resources, or to open the market for low-cost and shoddy Chinese goods. In many cases, China even sends its own construction workers, minimizing the number of local jobs that are created.... Several of the projects that have been completed are now bleeding money. For example, Sri Lanka’s Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, which opened in 2013 near Hambantota, has been dubbed the world’s emptiest. Likewise, Hambantota’s Magampura Mahinda Rajapaksa Port remains largely idle, as does the multibillion-dollar Gwadar port in Pakistan. For China, however, these projects are operating exactly as needed: Chinese attack submarines have twice docked at Sri Lankan ports, and two Chinese warships were recently pressed into service for Gwadar port security. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-one-belt-one-road-loans-debt-by-brahma-chellaney-2017-01

21 Jan 2017: Trump’s Tough Talk Further Rattles World Capitals, Full Inaugural Address video, Jack Ma says the US wasted trillions on warfare, China growth slips, U.S. Oil Producers Ramp Up Spending, Brent Crude $55.49


U.S. Oil Producers Ramp Up Spending - Companies are optimistic that higher crude prices are here to stay By ERIN AILWORTH Updated Jan. 20, 2017 -- U.S. oil producers, optimistic that higher crude prices are here to stay, have issued 2017 budgets that call for dramatically greater spending to tap new wells. http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-oil-producers-ramp-up-spending-1484908206?tesla=y

Trump’s Tough Talk Further Rattles World Capitals on Day One by Nick Wadhams  and Josh Wingrove January 21, 2017 -- Pledges to ‘reinforce old alliances and form new ones’. Speech fuels concern in world capitals on U.S. leadership https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-20/trump-s-tough-talk-further-rattles-global-capitals-on-day-one


President Trump's Full Inaugural Address 1/20/2017 -- President Donald Trump delivered a 16-minute inaugural address on Friday that will be remembered for its populism and defiance. http://www.wsj.com/video/president-trump-full-inaugural-address/5DE6F5D4-6C70-4D7B-9354-F31F9D2CA6C5.html?mod=djemTEW_h


Transcript: President Donald Trump’s 2017 Inaugural Address https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-20/full-text-president-donald-trump-s-2017-inaugural-address


Buffett Supports Trump on Cabinet Picks ‘Overwhelmingly’ by Amanda L Gordon  and Noah Buhayar https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-20/buffett-says-he-supports-trump-s-cabinet-picks-overwhelminglyJanuary 20, 2017


Chinese billionaire Jack Ma says the US wasted trillions on warfare instead of investing in infrastructure by Jay Yarow 18 Jan 2017 -- Ma called outsourcing a "wonderful" and "perfect" strategy..."The American multinational companies made millions and millions of dollars from globalization... The past 30 years, IBM, Cisco, Microsoft, they've made tens of millions — the profits they've made are much more than the four Chinese banks put together. ... But where did the money go?" ... He said the U.S. is not distributing, or investing, its money properly, and that's why many people in the country feel wracked with economic anxiety. He said too much money flows to Wall Street and Silicon Valley.. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/18/chinese-billionaire-jack-ma-says-the-us-wasted-trillions-on-warfare-instead-of-investing-in-infrastructure.html


Chinese growth slips to slowest pace for 26 years - With fears about the Trump presidency, rising debt levels and an unwinding property boom, the world’s No 2 economy is set for an uncertain 2017  by Katie Allen 20 January 2017 16.04 GMT https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/20/chinese-economic-growth-dips-to-67-the-slowest-for-26-years


18 Jan 2017: China’s Xi Jinping Seizes Role as Leader on Globalization, Trump favors a weaker dollar.


China’s Xi Jinping Seizes Role as Leader on Globalization, 
‘No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war,’ Chinese president says  By STEPHEN FIDLER in Davos, Switzerland and TE-PING CHEN and  LINGLING WEI in Beijing Jan. 17, 2017... In a keynote address, Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a full-throated defense of international trade and economic integration, portraying Beijing as a benevolent power intent on upholding an international order that has boosted common prosperity. With doubts about the merits of globalization mounting in the U.S. and elsewhere in the West, Mr. Xi’s speech was portrayed by some who saw it as a move to fill a global leadership vacuum. Some in the audience questioned China’s readiness. Mr. Xi, the first Chinese head of state to attend the forum, also offered an implicit rebuke of Mr. Trump, who has threatened to impose tariffs on China. “No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war,” he said. http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-defends-globalization-1484654899?


Dollar Tumbles on Trump Comments - Dollar falls to one-month low after President-elect Donald Trump describes it as ‘too strong’ By CHELSEY DULANEY,  IAN TALLEY and IRA IOSEBASHVILI Updated Jan. 17, 2017 -- Mr. Trump said in an interview published Monday that he favors a weaker dollar, breaking with decades of tradition and intensifying investor concern over the new administration’s capacity for surprising policy shifts. Still, with markets improving and a pro-business administration poised to take over in Washington, the mood among global corporate and financial leaders in Davos is upbeat... http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-comments-send-dollar-reeling-1484666714?



16 Jan 2017: Malaysia (with China) to challenge Singapore on logistics. High level questions on China's impact on Malaysia jobs, land and more amidst general pessimism. Oxfam targets feted billionaires and says to curtail rewards for those at the top.


Editor's note: From talking to Malaysia business stakeholders on China-Malaysia economic ties, I have been hearing for perhaps two years about their hope of China investments helping Malaysia gain market share on Singapore (harking back to the Mahathir vs LKY FDI plays?). In Singapore, there seemed assurance on good relations with China and that interests would prevail rather than contests. In recent weeks, regional news headlines is replete with economic implications arising from China's shifting relations in the region. Notably, SCMP reported on some (unofficial) negative opinions from China on Singapore, and then came the seizure of Singapore military vehicles in transit in HK. See news links below for comments on a potential renewed logistics role tussle.



How will Singapore navigate the choppy regional waters? By The Edge Singapore / theedgemarkets.com.sg   | January 13, 2017 http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/sg/article/how-will-singapore-navigate-choppy-regional-waters



China projects to hit Singapore BY HO WAH FOON 15 January 2017 -- “This is a dream of a lifetime for Malaysia to eventually stop cargoes transiting through Singapore, with the generous inflow of direct investments and expertise from China now. In 10 years or so, Malaysia can say bye-bye to Singapore,” says a veteran port operator and logistics consultant with experience in Malaysia, Singapore and China.... http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/01/15/china-projects-to-hit-singapore-the-giant-republics-aggressive-investments-in-ports-and-rail-links-i/ 



We are not selling off country to foreigners, says Najib 16 January 2017 -- http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/01/16/we-are-not-selling-off-country-to-foreigners-says-najib/



Muhyiddin slammed for China deals remark BY THO XIN YIandGAN PEI LING 11 January 2017 -- MCA president Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai slammed Muhyiddin’s claim as ‘illogical’. “It seems that he has changed his mind after shifting his political alliance. “When he was deputy prime minister, he led missions to China to attract Chinese investors to Malaysia.http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/01/11/muhyiddin-slammed-for-china-deals-remark-former-dpms-criticisms-not-logical-say-leaders/



Foreign ownership of land, clear policy needed BY SALLEH BUANG - 12 JANUARY 2017 Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2017/01/203696/foreign-ownership-land-clear-policy-needed



DPM: Malaysians have right to assess working visit to China January 15, 2017 -- Zahid discussed the recognition of halal goods in China, especially in Yunnan province, which has great potential for Jakim and the Halal Industry Development Corporation (HDC). He identified problems faced by Yunnan entrepreneurs wanting to export their goods since Malaysia and China have yet to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). On tourism, Zahid said he was waiting for feedback from the Chinese side on what more can be done to draw more tourists from the country to visit Malaysia. Tourist arrivals from China surged following the visa waiver or ENTRY (electronic travel registration) a year ago. ....http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/dpm-malaysians-have-right-to-assess-working-visit-to-china#sthash.uxEykVJ0.dpuf



Malaysians’ views on economy, politics at record lows, FT survey finds January 4, 2017 -- While the rest of Asean is unanimously predicting improvements in both areas, Malaysians responding to FT Confidential Research’s Economic Sentiment and Political Sentiment held opposing views about their own country. “Malaysians were the most pessimistic respondents in the Asean region, being the only ones expecting their domestic political and economic situations to deteriorate over the next two quarters,” FT wrote. ... http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/malaysians-views-on-economy-politics-at-record-lows-ft-survey-finds#sthash.tIgeIm2Q.dpuf



Oxfam targets feted billionaires and says to curtail rewards for those at the top... http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2062441/obscene-these-eight-men-are-rich-half-all-humanity

11 Jan 2017: Big Oil Hits Sweet Spot, Oil Discoveries Seen Recovering After Crashing to 65-Year Low, Chinese Companies Find New Ways to Borrow, Go-Jek,  BHP Held Talks With Trump, Brent crude $53.77


Big Oil Hits Sweet Spot as New Projects Reap Rewards of Recovery by Rakteem Katakey January 11, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/big-oil-hits-sweet-spot-as-new-projects-reap-rewards-of-recovery

Oil Discoveries Seen Recovering After Crashing to 65-Year Low by Mikael Holter January 10, 2017 Explorers found 3.7 billion barrels in 2016: Wood Mackenzie. Last year will probably be the low point for discoveries... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/oil-discoveries-seen-recovering-after-crashing-to-65-year-low

Strapped-for-Cash Chinese Companies Find New Ways to Borrow by Bloomberg News January 11, 2017 ABS sales by Chinese companies more than doubled last year. Doubts about ring-fencing of collateral for ABS: Genial Flow. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/china-inc-turns-to-structured-debt-for-cash-as-funding-squeezed

Indonesia’s First Billion-Dollar Startup Races to Kill Cash by Yoolim Lee January 11, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/indonesia-s-first-billion-dollar-startup-races-to-kill-cash

Uber Problem. Go-Jek Solution By Tim Culpan Jan 10, 2017 -- For sure, the Indonesian unicorn is entering a crowded and competitive market where Grab Taxi, Lippo Group and Ascend Money are vying for the same mobile-payments business. I'm not even convinced that Go-Pay will be the leading player, but it doesn't have to be. All Go-Pay has to do is make life easier for Go-Jek customers and service providers and not lose money (easier said than done). https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-01-11/uber-problem-go-jek-solution

BHP Held Talks With Trump Amid China Tariff, Climate Concerns by David Stringer January 11, 2017 -- BHP CEO, chairman met with president-elect in New York. Trump’s infrastructure pledges seen as positive for demand... Trump’s signals that he could spend as much as $500 billion to rebuild U.S. infrastructure lifted metals and producers in the wake of his election, promising to bolster global demand and add to a commodities price revival driven in 2016 by stimulus in China. The Bloomberg World Mining Index has advanced about 4 percent since Trump’s victory in November, while the London Metal Exchange Index of six key metals jumped about 6 percent.... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/bhp-held-talks-with-trump-amid-china-tariff-climate-concerns

5 Jan 2017: Gloom on Malaysian Ringgit and Singapore seeks new growth, economic forecasters on 2017, bond market outlooks, read Stiglitz, Brent Crude $56.26

Things Will Get Worse for the Malaysian Ringgit: BMI Research by Will Davies January 5, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-04/things-will-get-worse-for-the-malaysian-ringgit-bmi-research

Singapore to Deliver New Growth Map With Economy Under Strain by David Roman January 5, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-04/singapore-to-deliver-new-growth-map-with-economy-under-strain

Best Economic Forecasters Lay Out 2017 Calls - Our most-accurate predictors of inflation, unemployment and growth explain their outlook for this year by Jeanna Smialek January 4, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-04/best-economic-forecasters-lay-out-2017-calls

The 2017 Bond Strategy Backed By Goldman and BlackRock by Brian Chappatta  and John Gittelsohn January 4, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/the-2017-bond-strategy-that-goldman-blackrock-and-tcw-all-back

Goldman Confronts Protesters Inside New York Headquarters by Dakin Campbell January 5, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-04/goldman-sachs-confronts-protesters-inside-new-york-headquarters

Harvard Academic Sees Debt Rout Worse Than 1994 ‘Bond Massacre’ by Anchalee Worrachate January 4, 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-04/harvard-academic-sees-debt-rout-worse-than-1994-bond-massacre

Joseph Stiglitz | The age of Donald Trump: On 20 January 2017, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States. I would hate to say “I told you so,” but his election should not have come as a surprise. As I explained in my 2002 book Globalization and its Discontents, the policies we have used to manage globalization have sown the seeds of widespread disaffection....Of course, there is no going back. China and India are now integrated into the global economy, and technological innovation is reducing the number of manufacturing jobs worldwide. Trump cannot recreate the well-paying manufacturing jobs of past decades; he can only push for advanced manufacturing, which requires higher skill sets and employs fewer people.....Rising inequality, meanwhile, will continue to contribute to widespread despair, especially among the white voters in Middle America who handed Trump his victory. As the economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton showed in their study published in December 2015, life expectancy among middle-age white Americans is declining, as rates of suicides, drug use, and alcoholism increase. A year later, the National Center for Health Statistics reported that life expectancy for the country as a whole has declined for the first time in more than 20 years...In the first three years of the so-called recovery after the 2008 financial crisis, 91% of the gains went to the top 1% of earners......Obama brought “change you can believe in” on certain issues, such as climate policy; but with respect to the economy, he bolstered the status quo—the 30-year experiment with neoliberalism, which promised that the benefits of globalization and liberalization would “trickle down” to everyone. Instead, the benefits trickled up, partly owing to a political system that now seems to be based on the principle of “one dollar, one vote,” rather than “one person, one vote.”.... http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/mssPFfoIzskf8gQCuRrSIO/Joseph%ADStiglitz%AD%ADThe%ADage%ADof%ADDonald%ADTrump.html

4 Jan 2017: China credit worries, HSR, China Railway to European cities, Trump picks import-curbing trade negotiator, will solar get cheaper than coal? Brent Crude $55.47

Can China Connect the World by High-Speed Rail? | Gerald Chan | TEDxKFAS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRdQ_2sjF2s&feature=youtu.be

China’s Credit Engine Is Running Out of Gas by Bloomberg News January 4, 2017 -- President Xi Jinping and his top economic lieutenants last month pledged prudent and neutral monetary policy and proactive fiscal support for 2017 along with sharper focus on avoiding financial risks and asset bubbles. Meanwhile, the PBOC has been allowing a steady increase in money-market rates to squeeze leverage in the bond market, prompting firms to cancel or postpone bond selling of more than 100 billion yuan ($14 billion). ... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/china-s-credit-engine-is-running-out-of-gas-as-debt-risk-rises

Stratfor - A Problem China Cannot Outgrow by Analysis DECEMBER 29, 2016 Beijing appears to be on the verge of making a difficult choice: Sacrifice growth (and by extension, political support) to tackle Chinese debt head-on, or risk suffering the same debt-driven banking crisis seen in so many countries. https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/problem-china-cannot-outgrow?id=be1ddd5371&uuid=c31b4d91-710b-4276-97ec-534f851eb1d9

'China freight train' in first trip to Barking 3 January 2017 -- China Railway already runs services between China and other European cities, including Madrid and Hamburg. The train will take about two weeks to cover the 12,000 mile journey and is carrying a cargo of clothes, bags and other household items. It has the advantage of being cheaper than air freight and faster than sea. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38497997

Donald Trump’s pick to be the nation’s chief trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer - a veteran lawyer who spent three decades fighting for punitive tariffs on U.S. companies’ overseas rivals http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-pick-for-trade-representative-signals-focus-on-curbing-imports-1483466041?

Ford Motor Co. is scrapping a plan to build a $1.6 billion small-car factory in Mexico after Donald Trump slammed the investment for more than a year, with company executives attributing the move to slumping demand for compact cars and optimism over the president-elect’s “pro-growth” strategies. http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-targets-gm-on-chevy-cruzes-imported-from-mexico-1483448986?

Solar Could Beat Coal to Become the Cheapest Power on Earth by Jessica Shankleman  and Chris Martin January 3, 2017 -- The average 1 megawatt-plus ground mounted solar system will cost 73 cents a watt by 2025 compared with $1.14 now, a 36 percent drop, said Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis for New Energy Finance. That’s in step with other forecasts. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/for-cheapest-power-on-earth-look-skyward-as-coal-falls-to-solar

21 Dec 2016:  OPEC, non-OPEC agree to trim almost 2 million b/d next year, Ringgit Dips to Weakest Since 1998 AFC, Equities Traders Happy as Fear Infects Bonds, Brent Crude $55.54

OPEC Deal Makes Oil Investors Most Bullish Since Slump Began by Mark Shenk December 19, 2016 -- Net-long position climbs to highest since July 2014: CFTC, OPEC, non-OPEC agree to trim almost 2 million b/d next year https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-19/opec-deal-leaves-oil-investors-most-optimistic-since-slump-began

Ringgit Dips to Weakest Level Since 1998 Asia Financial Crisis by Y-Sing Liau  and Netty Idayu Ismail December 19, 2016 -- Malaysia’s ringgit touched its lowest level since the Asian financial crisis in 1998, as investors continue to sell down emerging-market assets and after a crackdown on currency speculators last month exacerbated outflows. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-19/ringgit-dips-to-weakest-level-since-1998-asia-financial-crisis

Equities Traders Target a Happy New Year as Fear Infects Bonds by Garfield Clinton Reynolds December 20, 2016, VIX gauge for S&P 500 is dropping toward the lowest since 2014 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/equities-traders-target-a-happy-new-year-as-fear-infects-bonds

Bond volatility elevated after worst rout since 1990s
The record-setting U.S. stock rally is wiping out almost any hint of fear for equity investors as this turmoil-filled year in global markets draws to a close. Bond and currency traders face a more complicated future.

A $33 Billion Manager Who Bought at Low Shifts to Cash by Tom Redmond December 18, 2016 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-18/a-55-billion-manager-who-bought-at-market-low-returns-to-cash

Why You Might Want to Pass on the Shrimp Cocktail December 20, 2016 -- Bloomberg Businessweek's Megan Murphy reports on antiobiotic-tainted seafood from China. She speaks on "Bloomberg Markets." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-12-19/why-you-might-want-to-pass-on-the-shrimp-cocktail

China's Tiger Moms Are Spending Big on Tech Classes for Their Kids by Lulu Yilun Chen  December 20, 2016 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-12-20/china-s-tiger-moms-are-spending-thousands-for-stem-education-and-robot-classes-for-their-kids

2 Dec 2016: OPEC deal pushes up oil price, Trump trades created massive November for markets, China worries about yuan and cash outflow, China-Singapore angst, Brent crude $53.52 


OPEC Deal Hinged on 2 a.m. Phone Call and It Very Nearly Failed by Javier Blas  and Grant Smith December 1, 2016 — 7:01 PM EST -- Saudi call with Russia led to first supply cut since 2008. Deal finally gets struck after Indonesia is sidelined. After months of meetings from Doha to Moscow, it was a 2 a.m. phone call between two of the most powerful men in the global oil industry that finally broke the impasse..... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-02/opec-deal-hinged-on-2-a-m-phone-call-and-it-very-nearly-failed

Brent Oil Jumps to Highest in More Than a Year After OPEC Accord by Mark Shenk November 30, 2016 — 6:28 PM EST December 1, 2016 — 3:49 PM EST xporter group agrees to reduce production in landmark deal. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/oil-rally-holds-after-opec-deal-as-focus-shifts-to-execution
Energy companies are biggest winners in European markets.

OPEC Confounds Skeptics, Agrees to First Oil Cuts in 8 Years by Nayla Razzouk , Angelina Rascouet , and Golnar Motevalli November 30, 2016 — 8:25 AM EST November 30, 2016 — 10:54 PM EST -- Broader than expected agreement to include non-OPEC countries. Benchmark Brent crude prices climb in London to top $50

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-said-to-agree-oil-production-cuts-as-saudis-soften-on-iran

Wall Street Wins Again as Trump Picks Bankers, Billionaires by Max Abelson November 30, 2016 -- Mnuchin would be third Goldman Treasury secretary since 1990s. ‘I think Donald Trump conned them,’ says hedge fund manager. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/wall-street-wins-again-as-trump-chooses-bankers-and-billionaires

Dollar Slips With Asian Stocks as New Angst Unseats Trump Trades by Emma O'Brien  and En Han Choong December 1, 2016 — 5:55 PM EST December 1, 2016 — 7:55 PM EST https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-01/asian-futures-signal-stock-retreat-as-trump-trade-loses-momentum

Why November Was a Massive Month for Markets Around the World - Last month changes everything by Sid Verma December 1, 2016 — 8:49 AM EST https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-01/why-november-was-a-massive-month-for-markets-around-the-world

China's Central Bank Is Facing a Major New Headache Bloomberg News December 1, 2016 — 11:01 AM EST December 1, 2016 — 7:12 PM EST Economist: It may take a while before the situation stabilizes. Central bank focus for yuan seen shifting as FX reserves bleed. People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan already has one policy headache with the currency falling to near an eight-year low. He could have an even bigger one next month.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-01/pboc-s-headache-to-worsen-as-new-50-000-conversion-quota-looms

China-Singapore Tensions Spill Into Open After Customs Spat Bloomberg News November 30, 2016 — 4:00 PM EST December 1, 2016 — 4:26 AM EST -- Protest over military shipment from Taiwan seen as warning. Beijing concerned Singapore moving too far into U.S. orbit. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/china-singapore-tensions-spill-into-public-view-via-customs-spat


29 Sep 2016: OPEC agrees to freeze on Saudi u-turn but Russia output awaited, China property and GMO uncertainty, Deutsche Bank woes, Brent crude $48.78


In U-Turn, Saudis Choose Higher Prices Over Free Oil Markets by  Javier Blas  Grant Smith September 29, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/in-u-turn-saudis-pick-cash-over-flirting-with-free-oil-markets

OPEC Agrees to First Oil Output Cut in Eight Years by  Grant Smith  Angelina Rascouet  Wael Mahdi September 29, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years

Saudi Arabia unveils first public sector pay cuts 27 September 2016 -- A royal decree said ministers' salaries would be reduced by 20%, and housing and car allowances for members of the advisory Shura Council cut by 15%. Lower-ranking civil servants will see wage increases suspended, and overtime payments and annual leave capped. About two-thirds of working Saudis are employed in the public sector. Their salaries and allowances accounted for 45% of government spending in 2015. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37482690

China's Red-Hot Property Market Risks Missing Lessons From Japan's Crash by   Bloomberg News September 29, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/china-s-bubble-trouble-risks-missing-lessons-from-japan-s-crash

Why People Have Been Worrying About Deutsche Bank, in 12 Charts - The bank's troubles, in pictures. BY Sid Verma September 28, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/why-people-have-been-worrying-about-deutsche-bank-in-12-charts

China Wants GMOs. The Chinese People Don't. SEP 27, 2016 -- On Wednesday, China's Ministry of Agriculture responded to a social media storm by suspending operations at the center.... That might take care of the current scandal, but the Chinese public's hostility toward GMOs won't go away so easily. Those concerns have only grown over the past decade as the government has increased its support of GMOs, including approval of the state-owned ChinaChem Group's $43 billion takeover offer for the Swiss seed giant Syngenta.... These efforts have galvanized a very public opposition that transcends China's typical political fault lines, and created one of the government's most intractable headaches....https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-09-28/china-wants-gmos-the-chinese-people-don-t

19 Sep 2016: Middle East producers opened the taps, Brent Crude $46.27


Source: Bloomberg.com 5-year price chart

OPEC production rose last month as Middle East producers opened the taps, the IEA said. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates pumped at or near record levels and Iraq pushed output higher, according to the agency. 
 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-18/oil-investors-flee-as-opec-freeze-hopes-face-supply-glut-reality

14 Sep 2016: Oil S&D is not going to balance in 2016 after all, exotic routes on the rise, Hanjin fallout, Brent Crude $47.36 

IEA Changes View on Oil Glut, Sees Surplus Enduring in 2017  Grant Smith  September 13, 2016 -- Faltering Asian demand has weighed on consumption this quarter. Market set for fourth year of surplus as Gulf OPEC pumps more....World oil stockpiles will continue to accumulate through 2017, a fourth consecutive year of oversupply, according to the IEA. Consumption growth sagged to a two-year low in the third quarter as demand faltered in China and India, while record output from OPEC’s Gulf members is compounding the glut, it said. Just last month the agency predicted the market would return to equilibrium this year...... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-13/iea-changes-view-on-oil-glut-sees-oversupply-persisting-in-2017

The Crazy, Mixed-Up Global Oil Market - Algerian oil finds an unlikely home far away in Australia when cheap shipping redraws long established trade routes September 13, 2016 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-13/the-crazy-mixed-up-global-oil-market

Hanjin Brings One of World's Busiest Shipping Terminals Close to Standstill   Heejin Kim  September 14, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-13/last-holdout-in-korean-war-sees-once-busy-docks-idled-by-hanjin

Hanjin Fall Is Lehman Moment for Shipping, Seaspan CEO Says  Rishaad Salamat  Kyunghee Park September 13, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-13/hanjin-s-fall-is-lehman-moment-for-shipping-seaspan-ceo-says

Fires, Floods, and Scorchers: Earth Destroys Yet Another Heat Record - July was the hottest on record, the 15th consecutive record-breaking month. August 18, 2016  Tom Randall 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-17/fires-floods-and-scorchers-earth-destroys-yet-another-heat-record



18 August 2016: Saudi Stabilization Talk, China fishery and Silk Road, Brent Crude $49.78 


Oil on Brink of Bull Market Amid Saudi Stabilization Talk: Chart  by  Ben Sharples August 18, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/oil-on-brink-of-bull-market-amid-saudi-stabilization-talk-chart

Indonesia Palm Exports Seen at 3-Month High on China Demand by Yoga Rusmana, Eko Listiyorini  August 18, 2016 —  Shipments seen 6.7% higher in July as China, India buy more. Inventories fall 4.4%, while output rises 0.5%, survey shows. Palm oil shipments from Indonesia, the world’s largest grower, probably rose to the highest level in three months in July after buyers from China to India boosted purchases.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/indonesia-palm-exports-seen-at-three-month-high-on-china-demand

Rupiah’s Five Year of Losses Seen Ending by Top Forecaster  by  Lilian Karunungan  August 18, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-17/rupiah-seen-ending-five-years-of-losses-on-11-billion-inflows

Singapore Non-oil domestic exports dropped 10.6 percent in July from a year earlier, worse than the median estimate of a 2.5 percent decline... That compares with a revised 2.4 percent decline in June...  the Monetary Authority of Singapore signaled it’s not ready for a second-round of easing after an unexpected move in April  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-17/singapore-s-export-decline-deepens-again-local-dollar-falls

Malaysia Plans Legal Moves Against Any 1MDB Defrauders, Low Says  by Pooi Koon Chong  August 18, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/malaysia-plans-legal-moves-against-any-1mdb-defrauders-low-says

Malaysia oil tanker 'not hijacked' despite earlier reports 17 August 2016 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37103871

Cathay Says Premium Travel Slumping, Prompting Discounts  by  Kyunghee Park  August 18, 2016 -- The lack of first and business-class travelers from the Asian financial center -- the worst since the global financial crisis days of 2009 -- is such a dent on Cathay’s financials that analysts are asking whether Chief Executive Officer Ivan Chu needs to find a Plan B. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-17/cathay-pacific-says-premium-travel-slumping-prompting-discounts

China's Empty Oceans - Aug 17, 2016 5:00 PM EST By Adam Minter -- On Wednesday, Indonesia celebrated its Independence Day with a bang -- blowing up several Chinese boats that had been caught fishing illegally in its waters and impounded. China doesn't dispute Indonesia's territorial claims, but Chinese fishermen have more pressing concerns. According to reports in Chinese state media this week, overfishing and pollution have so depleted China's own fishery resources that in some places -- including the East China Sea -- there are virtually "no fish" left. That's a frightening prospect for an increasingly hungry country: China accounted for 35 percent of the world's seafood consumption in 2015. Seeking catches further afield -- including in Indonesian waters -- isn't really a solution; fish stocks in the disputed South China Sea have themselves fallen by as much as 95 percent from 1950s levels. If China doesn't want the rest of Asia's fisheries to suffer the same fate as its own, it's going to have to think much more ambitiously about how to create a sustainable food supply for the region. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-17/it-s-up-to-china-to-save-asia-s-oceans

Xi Seeks to Address Concerns Over China’s New ‘Silk Road’ Plan by  Ting Shi   August 18, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/xi-seeks-to-address-concerns-over-china-s-new-silk-road-plan


30 July 2016: Oil Giants worst profits trend, Singapore oil services badly hit, The Death of the Central Bank? IMF admits disastrous love affair with the euro, We need a rethink toward wealth by Stephen Hawking. Brent crude $43.53

Oil Giants Find There’s Nowhere to Hide From Doomsday Market by Joe Carroll July 29, 2016 -- Exxon posts worst profit in 17 years, missing estimates. Chevron’s third straight loss capped longest streak in decades. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc this week reported their lowest quarterly profits since 1999 and 2005, respectively. Chevron Corp.’s third straight loss marked the longest slump in 27 years, and BP Plc lodged its lowest refining margins in six years. Welcome to year two of a supply overhang so persistent it’s upsetting industry expectations that the market would return to a state of balance between production and demand. It’s left analysts befuddled and investors running to the doorways as the crude market threatened to tip into yet another bear market, dashing hopes that a slump that began in mid 2014 would show signs of abating. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-29/exxon-mobil-profit-slumps-as-global-oil-glut-spreads-to-fuel


Supercomputers Deliver $500 Million Savings in BHP Hunt for Oil by David Stringer July 29, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-29/supercomputers-deliver-500-million-savings-in-bhp-hunt-for-oil


Swiber Drops Liquidation Plans Following Talks With Creditor by Andrea Tan and Joyce Koh July 30, 2016  -- Swiber Holdings Ltd., the Singapore-based offshore oil and gas services group, said it is dropping liquidation plans and intends to restructure its business following talks with the company’s major financial creditor. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-30/swiber-drops-liquidation-plans-following-talks-with-creditor


Morgan Stanley Warns Currency Traders Worst to Come for Dollar by  Rebecca Spalding July 30, 2016 —- The dollar is set to fall 5 percent in the next few months, the Federal Reserve isn’t raising interest rates anytime soon and U.S. economic data is only going to get worse. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-30/morgan-stanley-warns-currency-traders-worst-to-come-for-dollar


The Death of the Central Bank By Michael Schuman JULY 29, 2016 -- For the past 70 years, Japan has been a crucible of experimentation in economic policy. During its go-go years, Tokyo’s unusual practices to spur rapid growth became a model for much of the rest of Asia, while its unconventional attempts to revive its post-bubble economy have helped economists understand what should and could be done to recover from financial crises.... Now Japan may be offering the world yet another lesson in economics -- on the outer limits and ultimate effectiveness of monetary policy itself. http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-29/monetary-policy-runs-out-of-room-in-japan

IMF admits disastrous love affair with the euro and apologises for the immolation of Greece BY Ambrose Evans-Pritchard  29 JULY 2016 -- The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory. ....It describes a “culture of complacency”, prone to “superficial and mechanistic” analysis, and traces a shocking breakdown in the governance of the IMF, leaving it unclear who is ultimately in charge of this extremely powerful organisation. The report by the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) goes above the head of the managing director, Christine Lagarde. It answers solely to the board of executive directors, and those from Asia and Latin America are clearly incensed at the way European Union insiders used the fund to rescue their own rich currency union and banking system....http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/


US 2016 ELECTIONS - The TPP Isn't Just a Trade Deal JULY 29, 2016 By Noah Smith -- The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multilateral trade deal involving the U.S. and many countries on the Pacific Rim, has become something of a bugaboo for those both on the left and the right. Republican nominee Donald Trump has denounced TPP, declaring it a sop to China, even though China isn't included in the agreement. Bernie Sanders is against it as well. President Barack Obama and Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine are for it, while Hillary Clinton, who helped negotiate the deal, has now turned against it. It’s not clear what Americans in general actually think about the treaty -- polls indicate lukewarm support, and Americans tend to view foreign trade as an opportunity rather than a threat. But it’s obvious that there are very vocal, committed minorities in both parties who are adamantly opposed to the deal, and both nominees appear to be giving them what they want. That’s odd, because the TPP is pretty innocuous and incremental stuff....  Instead, I see the TPP as a scapegoat for people who are -- justifiably -- angry about the China trade explosion that happened a decade ago. Killing TPP wouldn’t bring back any of the jobs that the U.S. lost in the 2000s, but it would be a stinging public rebuke to internationalists like Clinton and Obama -- a message that Americans are fed up with technocratic meddling done in the name of economic efficiency. That in and of itself isn't too worrying. Killing the TPP won’t do much economic harm. And with the countries showing little willingness to do big global trade deals, the free-trade agenda has mostly already ground to a halt all on its own. Also, I agree with the idea that technocrats have been too blasé about ignoring the distributional issues that arise from policies like free trade. http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-29/the-tpp-isn-t-just-a-free-trade-deal


Our attitude towards wealth played a crucial role in Brexit. We need a rethink By Stephen Hawking -- Money was a key factor in the outcome of the EU referendum. We will now have to learn to collaborate and to share 29 July 2016 -- I don’t know what I would do with a racehorse, or indeed a Ferrari, even if I could afford one. So I have come to see money as a facilitator, as a means to an end – whether it is for ideas, or health, or security – but never as an end in itself.... Interestingly this attitude, for a long time seen as the predictable eccentricity of a Cambridge academic, is now more widely shared. People are starting to question the value of pure wealth. Is knowledge or experience more important than money? Can possessions stand in the way of fulfilment? Can we truly own anything, or are we just transient custodians?... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/29/stephen-hawking-brexit-wealth-resources


11 July 2016: Asian Shares Jump With Won After U.S. Payrolls Boost; Oil Falls, Brent Crude $46.33




Asian Shares Jump With Won After U.S. Payrolls Boost; Oil Falls by  James Regan  Emma O'Brien July 11, 2016 — Yen slips as Abe election win raises prospect of stimulus. Crude sinks toward $45 after more rigs activated in the U.S. Asian stocks jumped the most since March and South Korea’s won surged after a bigger-than-expected pickup in U.S. hiring damped concern the world’s biggest economy is losing momentum. Gold rose, while oil declined. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-10/asian-stock-futures-pace-u-s-jump-after-payrolls-yen-steadies



Transocean’s Junk Bond Sale Shows Investors Still Fear Energy by Claire Boston July 9, 2016 -- After a two-week drought, debt investors showed they’re willing to start lending to junk-rated borrowers again. But they’re still apprehensive when it comes to energy companies. That’s what happened this week when off-shore driller Transocean Ltd. came to the bond market with plans to raise $1.5 billion. The company ended up trimming the deal to $1.25 billion and had to boost yields to entice investors. Transocean was the first junk-rated company to sell bonds since just before June 23, when the U.K. voted to leave the European Union and issuance of speculative-grade debt in both the U.S. and Europe ground to a halt. And while a rebound in oil prices this year has boosted the value of bonds sold by riskier energy companies, parts of that industry still haven’t recovered, according to Jake Leiby an analyst at debt research firm CreditSights. “They’re in a tough industry,” Leiby said. “Off-shore drilling has been hit  the hardest of the energy subsectors in the downturn. It’s generally higher cost and longer cycle than other options.”  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/transocean-s-junk-bond-sale-shows-investors-still-fear-energy


24 June 2016 (2.30pm Singapore time): Britain votes to exit EU, volatility hits, Brent crude $48.39

Editor's note: Talking to someone from financial sector, one of the reaction is "volality is good for trading." Bloomberg news links below. Despite the moans, financial sector might be quite pleased at the trading and business opportunities from the volatility and risk concerns. There have been analysis showing a big gap of  haves versus have-nots (similar to after the 1929 boom period) and also the middle-class squeeze. We see resilient regimes in Southeast Asia (including the special circumstances of the Singapore-Malaysia political-economies). They includes a major difference - recent decades of middle class expansion. But there has also been some (very) recent angst on migrant labour suppression on domestic wages and earnings.



http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-referendum/

Commodities Reel in World Market Tumult as U.K. Votes for Brexit http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/commodities-reel-in-world-market-tumult-as-u-k-votes-for-brexit




Oil Glut Is Fading Where You Would Least Expect: Saudi Arabia http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/oil-glut-is-fading-where-you-would-least-expect-saudi-arabia



Revealing the Biggest Winners and Losers From U.K. Vote to Leave - Former London Mayor Boris Johnson gets a boost, while big banks face a world of chaos http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/revealing-the-biggest-winners-and-losers-from-u-k-vote-to-leave



‘Panic Is Palpable’ as Markets Swoon on Brexit Vote Few Expected http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/keep-calm-is-trading-floor-mantra-as-markets-look-anything-but



U.K. Referendum Roils Global Currencies From Australia to Mexico 




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/u-k-referendum-roils-global-currencies-from-australia-to-mexico




21 June 2016: Bloomberg - Oil halts advance, Brexit, trade war concerns, Brent crude $50.37





Oil Halts Advance Near $49 a Barrel Before U.S. Stockpile Data by Ben Sharples June 21, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-21/oil-halts-advance-near-49-a-barrel-before-u-s-stockpile-data



Crude Oil Declines in New York as Canadian Output Ramps Up by James Paton June 21, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-20/crude-oil-declines-in-new-york-as-canadian-output-ramps-up



It’s 1995 Again for Dollar Traders Bracing for Trade War Trouble by  Taylor Hall  June 21, 2016 -- Clinton, Trump advocate tougher stance with major partners, JPMorgan says export-import disputes weaken the greenback  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-20/it-s-1995-again-for-dollar-traders-bracing-for-trade-war-trouble



What Brexit Would Mean for Asia's Economies by  Colin Simpson June 21, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-20/what-brexit-would-mean-for-asia-s-economies



Stocks Gain With Pound, Treasuries Drop as Brexit Concern Fades by  Lukanyo Mnyanda  Jeremy Herron June 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-19/risk-appetite-revived-as-brexit-odds-ebb-pound-jumps-yen-falls



16 June 2016: Commodity price rally 'still in early stages', says Hightower 




Commodity price rally 'still in early stages', says Hightower By Agrimoney.com - Published 14/06/2016. The commodities rally is still in its early stages, leading commentator David Hightower told the Agrimoney Investment Forum, flagging the growing demand for ags from emerging market countries. "We are much closer to the bottom for commodity prices than to a high," Mr Hightower, founder of the influential Chicago-based Hightower Report said. "If you think you have missed the commodities move – think again." He highlighted that even now - after commodities prices have risen by 12.3% this year, as measured by the Bcom index – they remain well below historic highs. The Bcom index, which closed on Monday at 88.3 points, approached 240 points in July 2008, at the peak of the last commodities boom. And analysis of supply and demand fundamentals offered reasons why the values of raw materials, including ags, may return closer to highs. 'Prices will need to go very high' "Commodity prices cannot be kept down, because costs of production are too close to where prices have been for the last six months to one year," Mr Hightower told the Agrimoney Investment Forum, in London. Markets had been "pricing for perfection" in output, leaving them vulnerable to a rally on any kind of production, or demand, surprise.".....


14 June 2016: Fossil fuels for electricity to peak on cheaper alternatives, Brexit angst, market rallies retreat, China financial worries speculation, Brent 49.86



Bloomberg news:

  • The World Nears Peak Fossil Fuels for Electricity - Coal and gas will begin their terminal decline in less than a decade, according to a new BNEF analysis.... Call it peak fossil fuels, a turnabout that's happening not because we're running out of coal and gas, but because we're finding cheaper alternatives. Demand is peaking ahead of schedule because electric cars and affordable battery storage for renewable power are arriving faster than expected, as are changes in China's energy mix. ..  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-13/we-ve-almost-reached-peak-fossil-fuels-for-electricity
  • Asian Stocks Battered by Brexit Angst as Pound Falls; Bonds Jump http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-13/brexit-angst-hits-asian-stock-outlook-as-pound-sinks-yen-climbs
  • So Long to Hong Kong's World-Beating Rally http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-13/so-long-to-world-beating-hong-kong-rally-as-stocks-resume-slide
  • ‘Smoldering Bonfire’ Shows Where Kyle Bass May Be Right on China - Kyle Bass, the U.S. investor known for betting against subprime mortgages, is among famous money managers who expect turmoil in a Chinese banking industry struggling with bad loans. It’s in the least-known corners of the financial system that their predictions could start to come true...“A small bank may face a liquidity problem if their investments are in default and that will trigger a domino effect,” said Patricia Cheng, a Hong Kong-based analyst at brokerage CLSA Ltd. “Any failure of a financial institution will hurt sentiment and the psychological effects just can’t be quantified.”.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-13/-smoldering-bonfire-shows-where-kyle-bass-may-be-right-on-china




30 May 2016: China Default Chain Reaction Threatens Products Worth 35% of GDP, Noble Group CEO Quits, Brent Crude 49.16 


Noble Group CEO Quits as Energy Solutions Business Put on Sale by Ranjeetha Pakiam  Jasmine Ng May 30, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-30/noble-group-ceo-alireza-quits-as-part-of-energy-unit-put-on-sale



Noble Cuts to the Core By Christopher Langner, David Fickling May 30, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-05-30/noble-investors-will-hope-alireza-was-wrong-about-energy-unit


China's Veiled Loans May Prove Lethal By Andy Mukherjee May 30, 2016

 http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-05-30/china-s-veiled-loans-present-a-lethal-hidden-danger


China Default Chain Reaction Threatens Products Worth 35% of GDP by  Bloomberg News  May 30, 2016... The risk of a default chain reaction is looming over the $3.6 trillion market for wealth management products in China.... WMPs, which traditionally funneled money from Chinese individuals into assets from corporate bonds to stocks and derivatives, are now increasingly investing in each other. Such holdings may have swelled to as much as 2.6 trillion yuan ($396 billion) last year, based on estimates from Autonomous Research this month.... The trend has China watchers worried. For starters, it means that bad investments by one WMP could infect others, causing a loss of confidence in products that play an important role in bank funding. It also suggests WMPs are struggling to find enough good assets to meet their return targets. In the event of widespread losses, cross-ownership will create more uncertainty over who’s vulnerable -- a key source of panic in 2008 when soured U.S. mortgage securities triggered a global financial crisis....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-29/china-default-chain-reaction-threatens-products-worth-35-of-gdp


22 April 2016: Bloomberg - Commodities roaring back, Soros worries about China's debt-fueled growth, Brent Crude 44.95 


Commodities Make a Comeback as Bad Weather Meets Chinese Demand, April 22, 2016 - `The situation is better than people had given credit'. Strong China data and restocking season behind metals rally  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-21/commodities-make-a-comeback-as-bad-weather-meets-chinese-demand



The $2 Trillion Project to Get Saudi Arabia’s Economy Off Oil - Eight unprecedented hours with “Mr. Everything,” Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  April 21, 2016 by   Peter Waldman

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-04-21/the-2-trillion-project-to-get-saudi-arabia-s-economy-off-oil?cmpid=BBD042116_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=



Soros Says China's Debt-Fueled Growth Echoes U.S. in 2007-08  April 21, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-20/soros-says-china-s-debt-fueled-economy-resembles-u-s-in-2007-08


18 April 2016: Bloomberg - Oil Plunges After Output Talks Fail Amid Saudi Demands Over Iran, Brent Crude 40.87 -5.17%  8:30 PM

Oil Plunges After Output Talks Fail Amid Saudi Demands Over Iran Updated on April 18, 2016 — 7:05 AM SGT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/oil-freeze-talks-end-in-failure-amid-saudi-demands-over-iran

Doha Failure Sees Loonie, Aussie Slide; Yen Near 1 1/2-Year High http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/yen-jumps-commodity-linked-currencies-plunge-as-doha-talks-fail

Oil's Grand Bargain Falls Victim to Saudi Arabia's Iran Fixation http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/oil-s-grand-bargain-falls-victim-to-saudi-arabia-s-iran-fixation

Emerging-Market Assets Roar Back to Life April 18, 2016 Short interest in largest stock, bond ETFs slumped to about 2%.  Morgan Stanley says growth pickup needed for rally to continue. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/bears-fleeing-fast-as-emerging-market-assets-roar-back-to-life


17 April 2016: Doha Oil Talks Start After DelayWall Street's Oil Crash, Bank Indonesia Adopts New Policy Rate, Tapping into the Ocean's Energy,  Brent Crude 43.10 


Doha Oil Talks Start After Delay to Address Saudi Stance on Iran  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/doha-oil-talks-start-after-delay-to-address-saudi-stance-on-iran



Wall Street's Oil Crash, a Story Told in Charts by Asjylyn Loder April 16, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-15/wall-street-s-oil-crash-a-story-told-in-charts



The Lessons of a Coal Giant's Collapse APRIL 15, 2016 By Editorial Board, The bankruptcy of Peabody Energy Corp., the largest U.S. coal producer, is the most vivid illustration yet of the market's deep and welcome shift away from coal. It could also be calamitous for the environment: If Peabody goes out of business, who will clean up the pollution it has left behind? http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-15/the-lessons-of-peabody-energy-s-collapse



Bank Indonesia Adopts New Policy Rate to Help Boost Economy, April 15, 2016; Central bank moves to seven-day reverse repo rate from August. Bank Indonesia will reduce lending facility rate in August... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-15/bank-indonesia-adopts-new-policy-rate-to-help-boost-economy

The bad smell hovering over the global economy by Larry Elliott; Attempts at economic stimulus have left a bad smell. Central banks are starting to think the unthinkable – helicopter money 17 April 2016 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/17/central-bank-global-economy-helicopter-money


Tapping into the Ocean's Energy April 12, 2016, The oceans generate enough energy for us to give up coal and gas completely, but no one has been able to harness it effectively. The Triton is a wave harvester that uses a novel design which may be the key to unlocking the power of the ocean. (Source: Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-04-12/tapping-into-the-ocean-s-energy


Australia's Debt Levels Raise Downgrade Fears by Candice Zachariahs April 17, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-17/australia-s-1986-debt-downgrade-haunts-morrison-as-budget-nears


13 April 2016: A rapid slide in production around the world, risk of price drop if freeze deals fails, Brent Crude 44.21 Brent Crude 44.21 



The 10-Point. Gerard Baker  Editor in Chief  The Wall Street Journal, 13 April 2016  The debate among the biggest oil nations over whether to freeze output is beginning to be overtaken by a rapid slide in production around the world. The U.S. government said yesterday that national output dropped in March and will likely continue falling, and this morning OPEC said that production outside the cartel is falling more sharply than expected. Helped by speculation of a deal led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest producers, at a meeting in Doha this weekend, oil prices recovered yesterday but they fell again this morning as profit-taking and pessimism over whether producers can agree to a freeze pulled the price down. Any deal could signal that the bottom of the oil-price rout has passed. Others in OPEC—including Venezuela, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait and the U.A.E.—have said that they would likely go along with a Moscow-Riyadh-led agreement, but it remains unclear whether they would agree to a freeze if Iran, also an OPEC member, doesn’t participate.

Oil Producers Risk Severe Price Slump If Freeze Deal Fails by   Grant Smith April 12, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-12/oil-producers-risk-severe-impact-on-prices-if-freeze-deal-fails



Coal Slump Sends Mining Giant Peabody Energy Into Bankruptcy by Tiffany Kary and  Tim Loh April 13, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-13/peabody-majority-of-its-u-s-entities-file-for-chapter-11



World's Once-Biggest Gem Field Idle as $13 Billion Said Gone  by Godfrey Marawanyika April 13, 2016 


2 April 2016: Saudi Arabia says accord for production freeze needs Iran, glutted natural-gas summer could push producers into desperation, Tesla's new car  gets $7.5 billion orders at launch, Brent crude 38.67

Crude Oil Prices Sink as Saudis Balk at Production Curbs - Doubts about the deal; `Kiss goodbye' to any hopes of agreement in Doha: Commerzbank. Russia says it wasn't aware of Saudi position on Iran http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-01/saudi-arabia-plans-2-trillion-megafund-to-dwarf-all-its-rivals?cmpid=BBD040116_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=urb 


output had already halted an oil price rebound By TIMOTHY PUKO and  GEORGI KANTCHEV Updated April 1, 2016  http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-decline-ahead-of-u-s-data-1459503111?tesla=y
Saudi Arabia Plans $2 Trillion Megafund for Post-Oil Era: Deputy Crown Prince; Pot would be big enough to buy world's four largest companies. First step will be sale of Aramco stake by 2018, prince says. ; Saudi Arabia is getting ready for the twilight of the oil age by creating the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund for the kingdom’s most prized assets. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-01/saudi-arabia-plans-2-trillion-megafund-to-dwarf-all-its-rivals?cmpid=BBD040116_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=
No Mercy Rule for Glutted Natural-Gas Market - ‘Withdrawal season’ ends with record inventories, and summer could push producers into desperation By SPENCER JAKAB April 1, 2016  http://www.wsj.com/articles/no-mercy-rule-for-glutted-natural-gas-market-1459542004?tesla=y
Obama Acknowledges Mixed Legacy on Nuclear Nonproliferation - Success of his efforts to reduce nuclear threats hinge on his ability to rein in North Korea and Iran By CAROL E. LEE April 1, 2016  http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-says-iran-making-real-progress-living-up-to-nuclear-deal-1459527637?tesla=y
12 Mar 2016:  Bonuses at many energy companies based on higher oil production, hina Is Facing a Ticking Demographic Time Bomb

China Is Facing a Ticking Demographic Time Bomb - Getting old isn't easy on an economy by Aki Ito March 10, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-10/china-is-facing-a-ticking-demographic-time-bomb?cmpid=BBD031116_BIZ

Oil Freeze Thaws as Saudi Arabia Says Accord Hinges on Iran  by  Grant Smith  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-01/oil-freeze-thaws-as-saudi-arabia-says-accord-hinges-on-iran




Economy Chugs On Despite Fears Slowdown worries fade as hiring, wage gains lift consumer spending; Fed still seen on hold By ANNA LOUIE SUSSMAN Updated April 1, 2016 http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-march-nonfarm-payrolls-rise-by-215-000-jobless-rate-5-0-1459513893?tesla=y

A Ride in Tesla's $35,000 Model 3: Musk's Master Plan Realized  Dana Hull April 1, 2016; The Model 3 seats five and gets at least 215 miles per charge, a minimum Tesla hopes to exceed. It comes standard with autopilot hardware... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-01/a-ride-in-tesla-s-35-000-model-3-musk-s-master-plan-realized?cmpid=BBD040116_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign= 





5 year Bruent crude price chart: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM
Key Formula for Oil Executives’ Pay: Drill Baby Drill - Bonuses at many energy companies based on higher oil production, reserves; shareholders seek change By RYAN DEZEMBER,  NICOLE FRIEDMAN and  ERIN AILWORTH Updated March 11, 2016 Markets have been waiting for U.S. energy producers to slash output during a period of depressed crude prices. But these companies have been paying their top executives to keep the oil flowing.... http://www.wsj.com/articles/key-formula-for-oil-executives-pay-drill-baby-drill-1457721329?tesla=y

Should I Buy Diamonds, Wine or Picasso? By Rani MollaAndrea Felsted';  You'd have thought negative interest rates would fuel a boom in diamonds, antiques and fine wine, as people look for an alternative to stuffing cash under the mattress. But you'd be wrong: prices for all three are falling.While some "collectibles" such as vintage watches, luxury handbags and old cars are holding up pretty well, others are struggling. The phenomenon of safe havens not always proving the best place to hide was explored by Gadfly colleague Nir Kaissar recently, who questioned gold, cash and real estate..... So while you may think your investments are uncorrelated, think again. As in other areas of economic life, China's influence is everywhere. If you're worried about its financial wellbeing, there might be some merit in that mattress after all. http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-03-11/china-is-why-not-to-invest-in-diamonds-wine-or-picasso?cmpid=BBD031116_BIZ



Scenes From the Disaster Zone: Five Years on in Fukushima - Five years since the meltdown at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant, progress has been made to rebuild much of the prefecture. Yet within evacuation zones designated by the Japanese government, scars are still obvious. Many evacuees who fled are unwilling to return. Thousands still live in temporary housing outside these zones.  Photographs by Ko Sasaki and Tomohiro Ohsumi for Bloomberg  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2016-03-10/scenes-from-the-disaster-zone-five-years-on-in-fukushima?cmpid=BBD031116_BIZ


10 Mar 2016: Emerging-Market Rallies Cling to Bullish Signs as Oil Stabilizes, Brent Crude 40.83 





Emerging-Market Rallies Cling to Bullish Signs as Oil Stabilizes http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-10/emerging-market-moving-averages-turn-bullish-as-oil-stabilizes



Surge in Hong Kong Stock Buybacks Is Bullish Signal to HSBC http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/surge-in-hong-kong-stock-buybacks-sends-bullish-signal-to-hsbc


29 Feb 2016: Bloomberg - Arab States Face $94 Billion Debt Crunch HSBC says, China Panic Calmed for Now, Leaders Face Reform Test, Malaysia Najib Cements Hold, Brent Crude $35



Arab States Face $94 Billion Debt Crunch on Oil Slump, HSBC Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-28/hsbc-sees-94-billion-gulf-arab-debt-crunch-amid-oil-slump


With China Panic Calmed for Now, Leaders Face Reform Test   Bloomberg News  February 29, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-28/with-china-panic-calmed-for-now-leaders-face-reform-test


Malaysia Ruling Party Suspends Deputy as Najib Cements Hold  by Manirajan Ramasamy  Pooi Koon Chong  February 28, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-28/malaysia-ruling-party-suspends-deputy-as-najib-cements-hold



23 Feb 2016: Bloomberg - The U.S. States Where Recession Is Already a Reality.  Economist - Manufacturing - A hard pounding. Singapore worries about debt defaults. Yuan carry trade unwind concerns. Brent Crude 34.69



The U.S. States Where Recession Is Already a Reality.  by Steve Matthews February 22, 2016; As economists size up the chances of the first nationwide slump since 2009, pockets of the country are already contracting. Four states—Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming—are in a recession and three others are at risk of prolonged declines, according to indexes of state economic performance tracked by Moody’s Analytics....The regions suffering the most are in the flop stage of the energy industry’s boom-to-bust cycle, and manufacturing-dependent areas hurt by a rising dollar are at risk of receding. Whether the weak links break the entire U.S. economy will hinge largely on a group that’s benefited from the energy price collapse: American consumers.

“The impetus for weakening regional economies is the huge fall in energy prices and other commodities prices, which is taking a tremendous toll,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, who is concerned of a broadening into a national recession. “If the consumer were to falter for any reason, that would be a big problem.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/recession-already-reality-in-spots-from-west-virginia-to-wyoming?cmpid=BBD022216_BIZ

Manufacturing - A hard pounding. A vital chunk of the world economy is beset by weakness Feb 20th 2016; Revenues in 2015 were nearly 15% lower than they were in 2014, and 29% below the 2012 peak.... The company’s woes are emblematic of the problems facing manufacturers worldwide. Although manufacturing is a much smaller part of most developed economies than services—just 12% of output in America, for example—its recent weakness makes many economists nervous about the wider outlook.... Recent data point to the size of the problem. Big jobs cuts have been announced this year by GE, Tata Steel and Bombardier. In December industrial production fell by 0.7% in Italy, 1.1% in Britain, 1.2% in Germany and 1.6% in France. In China both the official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of manufacturing activity and that of Caixin, a leading financial magazine, are below 50, the threshold that indicates contraction....China’s demand for raw materials in the first decade of this century also prompted mining companies to step up production, and shipping companies to build more vessels. As Chinese demand has dropped, both industries have taken a pounding. Bloomberg’s commodity index has fallen by 28% over the past 12 months. The Baltic Dry index of shipping rates is down by 98% from its peak. The latest data show that Chinese imports, by value, have fallen by 18.8% over the past year...Before the financial crisis, global trade used to grow faster than GDP, now it is lagging behind. The OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, estimates that trade volumes last year grew by just 2%....The sluggish nature of trade growth has a disproportionate impact on manufacturing. Around 25% of all American manufacturing jobs are linked to trade, compared with just 6% of jobs in services...American capacity utilisation, a measure of how much productive capacity is not idle, may have peaked at a lower level than in previous cycles (see chart)....But currency movements cannot explain the weakness in European manufacturing; the trade-weighted euro has dropped by 11% over the past five years. The best hope for manufacturers is that this weakness is temporary....http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21693240-vital-chunk-world-economy-beset-weakness-hard-pounding?cid1=cust/noenew/n/n/n/20160222n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/email 


Singapore Lawyers Warn of 1998-Like Pain as Debt Defaults Spread by David Yong  Andrea Ta  February 23, 2016; Rajah & Tann Singapore LLP, Southeast Asia’s largest law firm, reckons the region’s rising bond defaults will inflict as much pain on creditors as the financial crises of 2008 and 1998. As distress spreads from shipping to mining and retail to construction industries, the law firm said in an interview that recovery rates will be similar to those seen in the global credit meltdown and Asian financial crisis. Secured creditors recover only less than 33 cents on the dollar from insolvencies in East and South Asia, compared with more than 80 cents in the U.S., according to World Bank studies. Rival law firm Hogan Lovells US LLP said in an interview that regional banks will likely boost the sale of bad loans in the coming months. ...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/singapore-lawyers-warn-of-1998-like-pain-as-debt-defaults-spread


DBS Profit Rises on Interest Income as Bad-Loan Ratio Holds by  Chanyaporn Chanjaroen  February 22, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/dbs-posts-20-gain-in-fourth-quarter-profit-on-interest-income


The World's Debt Is Alarmingly High. But Is It Contagious? Welcome back to a familiar anxiety: global debt contagion. by  Matthew Philips February 22, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/the-world-s-debt-is-alarmingly-high-but-is-it-contagious



Brace for Yuan Horror Show By Christopher Langner Feb 23, 2016;...  With the yuan having reversed course from steady appreciation to rapid devaluation, companies such as developer Shimao are griping about rising interest costs and trying to replace foreign debt. Any such move will come too late to save investors from sharing the pain. There are more than 200 publicly traded Chinese companies which have issued bonds in either U.S. or Hong Kong dollars and publish financial reports in yuan. All added, they have more than $364 billion in syndicated loans and bonds in the two currencies.... Most of that isn't hedged, which until recently was the smart thing to do. For those with enough size to lure global banks and investors, it was a no-brainer to borrow in dollars (or in Hong Kong dollars, which amounts to the same given the currency's peg to the greenback). Rates were far lower -- at times less than a third of those at home -- and with the yuan appreciating the cost of paying interest progressively dropped.As a result, companies that borrowed overseas were able to book foreign-currency gains on their debt for several years. No longer... http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-02-23/yuan-depreciation-bill-comes-due-in-china-earnings-reports

Negative Rates Advocate Fujimaki Says BOJ's Kuroda Got It Wrong by  Chikako Mogi  Kazumi Miura  Yumi Ikeda  February 21, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/negative-rates-advocate-fujimaki-says-boj-s-kuroda-got-it-wrong




22 Feb 2016: Distress in India rural sector disrupts water to Delhi, army sent in on caste-based protests, Brent crude 33.45


Agony in Rural India Prompts Modi U-Turn on Policy He Mocked by Bibhudatta Pradhan February 22, 2016; Modi under pressure to boost spending in budget for rural jobs. Administration to increase spending on guaranteed job program.. During previous droughts, Harkiya relied on the world’s biggest public works program to earn cash doing menial tasks like digging ditches, building roads and planting trees. Yet this year, local officials say the central government isn’t providing enough money to fund work projects. Rising discontent in rural India is pressuring Prime Minister Narendra Modi to spend more on the $5 billion jobs program in his budget on Feb. 29. His party got crushed in India’s third most-populous state in November, and faces as many as nine state assembly elections in the coming fiscal year that will affect his economic agenda until the next national vote in 2019. Village Distress. Modi “neglected the countryside" with an emphasis on urban development in his first two years, said S. Mahendra Dev, director of the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research in Mumbai. “They should make bold moves in the budget focusing on rural India -- otherwise they will pay a heavy political price........ India’s villages, home to about 70 percent of the nation’s 1.3 billion people, aren’t feeling its world-beating 7.3 percent economic expansion. Rural wage growth is falling, food exports are down and production of mass-market goods has dropped.... In times of distress, farmers don’t have many places to turn. While subsidized food ensures nobody starves to death, other forms of welfare are lacking: Health care is spotty, crop insurance is inadequate and emergency relief can take months to arrive...... "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/agony-in-india-dust-bowl-prompts-modi-u-turn-on-policy-he-mocked


Protesters Disrupt Water Supplies to India's Capital by Archana Chaudhary February 22, 2016; Unrest in Haryana state blocked about half of Delhi's supply. More than half the water supply to 18 million people in India’s capital is being disrupted after deadly unrest in a neighboring state... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/water-running-out-in-india-s-capital-as-mobs-disrupt-supplies


India Sends Army to Quell Caste-Stoked Protests Near Delhi  by Natalie Obiko Pearson February 21, 2016; Maruti Suzuki forced to halt production at two plants. Capital set to lose water supply as protesters block canal. India sent troops to a northern state where protests for caste rights turned violent as mobs torched vehicles, shut off a canal supplying water to the capital, and forced the nation’s biggest automaker to halt production. Protests entered their third day in Haryana state bordering the capital of New Delhi, where more than 3,000 troops have been deployed to impose order, according to army headquarters. Including paramilitary officers and police, the total number of security personnel in the state rose to 5,000, the Press Trust of India reported, citing an official it didn’t identify. The demonstrations are being led by members of the Jat community, who are demanding benefits such as government jobs and college admission under India’s affirmative action policy. Giving in to their demands could embolden other groups, including the Patels who took to the streets in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state in August in a similar explosion of caste-based violence... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/india-sends-army-to-quell-protests-near-delhi-at-least-one-dead



20 Feb 2016: Top Oil States to Complete Output Talks by March 1, Russia Says, Brent Crude 33.01



Top Oil States to Complete Output Talks by March 1, Russia Says by   Elena Mazneva February 20, 2016; Talks possible with more non-OPEC states, Energy Minister says. Iran hasn't commented on freezing production at January levels. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-20/top-oil-states-to-complete-output-talks-by-march-1-russia-says


Norway government may need to withdraw almost $10 billion from its $810 billion wealth fund this year http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-18/norway-central-bank-chief-warns-on-oil-wealth-as-coffers-raided


The Stressed-Out Oil Industry Faces an Existential Crisis by Dan Murtaugh February 19, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-18/there-s-a-new-world-order-to-talk-about-at-the-davos-of-energy


Exxon Fails to Replace Production for First Time in 22 Years by Joe Carroll February 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/exxon-fails-to-replace-production-for-first-time-in-22-years


China Removes Xiao as CSRC Head After Stock Market Meltdown   Bloomberg News February 19, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/head-of-china-s-securities-regulator-to-step-down-wsj-reports



The Trouble With Banks Is Contained, for Now Feb 17, 2016 Mohamed El-Erian Chief Economic Advisor, Allianz https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/trouble-banks-contained-now-mohamed-el-erian?trk=hp-feed-article-title-publish




13 Feb 2016: Vitol - Prices will stay low for up to a decade, Negative Rates Backfire, bank CoCo bonds problem, art market trouble?  Brent Crude 32.83 


The Oil Industry Got Together and Agreed Things May Never Get Better - Thousands of industry participants gathered in London for their annual get-together, only to find a world awash in crude and hardly a life jacket in sight.... Producers are bracing for a tough year. Prices will stay low for up to a decade as Chinese economic growth slows and the U.S. shale industry acts as a cap on any rally, according to Ian Taylor, chief executive officer of Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader. Even refiners, whose profits have held up better than expected, are seeing a worsening outlook.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/the-oil-industry-got-together-and-agreed-things-may-never-get-better


World Trade at Sea Has Hangover From Party That Never Happened by Alex Longley February 12, 2016; Growth in container trade was half what was expected last year... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/world-trade-at-sea-has-hangover-from-party-that-never-happened


Racked Markets Hand Verdict to Central Banks on Sub-Zero Rates; More than $8 trillion erased from global equities this year. Negative rates hurt banks as unconventional policies backfire... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-11/racked-markets-hand-verdict-to-central-banks-on-sub-zero-rates 


Asia's Rich Advised to Buy Yen as BOJ's Negative Rates Backfire by  Netty Idayu Ismail February 12, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/asia-s-rich-advised-to-buy-yen-as-boj-s-negative-rates-backfire


The Trouble With CoCos 10 FEB 12, 2016 By Editorial Board; Until recently, many financial regulators thought a new financial instrument -- known as a contingent convertible bond -- had a big part to play in ensuring the soundness of the financial system. After the past few days, they might want to think again. CoCo bonds have been central to European regulators’ efforts to avoid a repeat of the 2008 crisis. They’re supposed to boost a bank’s capacity to absorb losses... http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-12/the-trouble-with-cocos


Flashy Malaysia Financier Said to Sell Picasso, Basquiat at Loss by  Katya Kazakina February 12, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/flashy-malaysia-financier-said-to-sell-picasso-basquiat-at-loss


Is The Top of the Art Market In Trouble? A look at the top 10 sales of London's February auctions by James Tarmy February 12, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-12/is-the-top-of-the-art-market-in-trouble



source: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=BID&insttype=Stock&freq=2&show=&time=20



10 Feb 2016: IEA Raises Estimate of Surplus Oil, Indonesia stimulus, Russia funding gap, milk price slump, Brent Crude 30.79 


IEA Raises Estimate of Surplus Oil Supply on Higher OPEC Output by   Grant Smith  February 9, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/iea-raises-estimate-of-surplus-oil-supply-on-higher-opec-output


Goldman Sees Risk of Oil Below $20 by  Grant Smith  Jonathan Ferro February 9, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/goldman-sees-more-oil-swings-that-could-drag-price-below-20


Here's What Bank Executives Are Saying About Energy Markets Laura J Keller February 10, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/here-s-what-bank-executives-are-saying-about-energy-markets


Won After the Crisis Is Buying Again by Tom Redmond February 9, 2016 Global equities erased $7.7 trillion in value this year through Monday as routs in commodities and Shanghai shares spread, taking global banks as the latest victim. Worldwide stocks neared a bear market on Tuesday as the yen surged and corporate bond risk jumped.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/the-20-billion-manager-who-won-after-the-crisis-is-buying-again


Indonesian Growth Beats Estimates as Widodo Lifts Spending  Chris Brummitt   Rieka Rahadiana  Herdaru Purnomo February 5, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-05/indonesian-growth-beats-estimates-as-widodo-seeks-economic-boost


Putin to Weigh $10.4 Billion Anti-Crisis Plan With Funding Gap by Olga Tanas  Andrey Biryukov  February 10, 2016  Government has to find funding for 134 billion rubles in plan. Russia will tap sovereign wealth fund for anti-crisis measures. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/putin-to-weigh-10-4-billion-anti-crisis-plan-with-funding-gap-ikfwog7k


Starbucks Stands to Benefit From Plunging Milk Prices: Chart  Leslie Patton  January 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/starbucks-stands-to-benefit-from-plunging-milk-prices-chart



NZ Farmers Under Pressure as Milk Powder Slumps to Six-Month Low  Tracy Withers  February 3, 2016; Whole milk powder fell to $1,952 a metric ton at the GlobalDairyTrade auction Tuesday, the lowest since Aug. 18..... Powder prices have dropped 31 percent since October, putting pressure on Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd.’s payout to its New Zealand farmers and damping the outlook for economic growth.....   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/nz-farmers-under-pressure-as-milk-powder-slumps-to-six-month-low





4 Feb 2016: Oil prices and markets rally, Brent Crude 35.44


Miners Go Gangbusters as Metals Rally, Dollar Drop Spark Rebound by Danielle Bochove February 4, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/miners-go-gangbusters-as-metals-rally-dollar-drop-spark-rebound


Macquarie Cuts Profit Forecast for Its Commodities Business by Narayanan Somasundaram February 4, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/macquarie-cuts-its-profit-forecast-for-commodities-business


Risk of US recession back on the agenda for markets by John Authers February 3, 2016  http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/18b79508-ca5e-11e5-a8ef-ea66e967dd44.html#axzz3z6zob6lp



3 Feb 2016: Stocks Fall as Sliding Oil Prices Hit Energy Shares, ChemChina-Syngenta deal, China's rising junk debt, commodity trader woes, Brent Crude 32.72



Stocks Fall as Sliding Oil Prices Hit Energy Shares - Investors bid up havens from government debt to utilities By DAN STRUMPF Updated Feb. 2, 2016;...The declines came on the heels of a second consecutive day of lower oil prices as traders continued erasing a recent surge from speculation that the world’s major exporters would cooperate on output cuts. New York-traded crude oil fell 5.5% to $29.88 a barrel, taking its two-day loss to 11%. A steep drop in quarterly profit from both Exxon Mobil and BP showed that even the sector’s most resilient firms are struggling in an environment of sharply lower oil prices.... Adding to the pain for the energy sector was a wave of credit downgrades by ratings firm Standard & Poor’s, which said the steep fall in oil prices could curtail energy companies’ outlook for years.....  http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-fall-on-oil-price-weakness-1454403900?tesla=y

ExxonMobil sees 2015 earnings fall 50%, cuts 2016 spending by 25%; ExxonMobil Corp. plans to reduce its capital and exploration expenditures in 2016 by 25% compared with that of 2015 to $23.2 billion.  The company estimates earnings in 2015 totaled $16.2 billion, a 50% drop from the $32.5 billion earned in 2014. Capital and exploration expenditures were $31.1 billion, down 19% from the 2014 level.....  http://www.ogj.com/articles/2016/02/exxonmobil-sees-2015-earnings-fall-50-cuts-2016-spending-by-25.html?



It's the 1980s Again, Thanks to the Oil Glut - The reaction in the U.S. to lower energy prices has been strikingly similar this time around. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/it-s-the-1980s-again-thanks-to-the-oil-glut



ChemChina Nears Deal to Buy Controlling Stake in Syngenta - Deal could represent the largest foreign acquisition by a Chinese company By RICK CAREW,  SHAYNDI RAICE and  EYK HENNING Feb. 2, 2016  China National Chemical Corp. is nearing a deal to buy a controlling stake in Syngenta AG that values the Swiss pesticide company at about $43 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.... http://www.wsj.com/articles/chemchina-nears-deal-to-buy-controlling-stake-in-syngenta-1454416378?mod=djemalertDEALS

China’s 1.4 Billion Mouths Behind ChemChina’s Syngenta Pursuit by Anuradha Raghu  Aya Takada February 3, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/china-s-1-4-billion-mouths-behind-chemchina-s-syngenta-pursuit

China Has $23 Billion in Debt That Could Be Cut to Junk http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/fallen-angels-incoming-as-23-billion-of-china-bonds-near-junk



Oil Industry's Plan to Keep Investors Happy: Borrow More Money http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/oil-industry-s-plan-to-keep-investors-happy-borrow-more-money



Oil Could Prices Jump 50% by the End of 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/oil-seen-surging-about-50-by-fourth-quarter-as-supply-eases


Russian Roulette for Oil Traders By Liam Denning Feb 2, 2016 10:29 PM MPSTWhen you've reached the point of putting your faith in Russia to bail you out, you've almost capitulated. Almost.... http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-02-02/oil-traders-get-reality-check-as-russia-rally-fades


Cheap Oil Won't Save Airlines By Chris Bryant Feb 1, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-02-01/ryanair-shows-falling-oil-won-t-save-air-france-lufthansa


Bank Bear Market Gets Worse as Goldman, Citi Sell Off Again by Anna-Louise Jackson  Dakin Campbell February 3, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/bank-bear-market-gets-worse-as-goldman-citigroup-sell-off-again


Rio Tinto Drops to Lowest Since March '09 as Mining Rout Deepens by Agnieszka De Sousa February 3, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/rio-tinto-drops-to-lowest-since-march-09-as-mining-rout-deepens

A (Not So) Noble Pursuit By Christopher Langner Feb 1, 2016; ....The commodities trader is seeing its margins shrink as the prices of the products it sells drop. ....The Hong Kong-headquartered group moved 205.8 million tons of various commodities and earned revenue of $53.7 billion in the nine months ended Sept. 30, its third-quarter report shows. That's an almost 44 percent increase in volumes and a 17 percent decrease in the amount of money its sales generated. In the same period, Noble generated operating income of $3.74 per ton, less than half what it did a year earlier.... Considering Noble’s credit-default swaps are the most expensive in Asia, it's fair to assume that borrowing money will get more expensive for the company, and that could eat further into margins. Then there are the perils of being a middleman when the market is in free-fall. Buyers have more bargaining power and sellers can’t squeeze much further without going bust. And when Noble's suppliers go bankrupt, that equates to a loss, since these companies would probably default on their delivery contracts.....To be fair, Noble Group isn't alone in its malaise. Trafigura Beheer said in December that its trading volumes had increased 17 percent for the year ended Sept. 30 while its revenues dropped 23 percent. It led Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Weir to warn in his letter to shareholders in Trafigura’s annual report that: ``Commodities trading will in future be a business for large firms with diversified and well-financed trading interests or for small specialists. It will certainly not be a hospitable environment for mid-sized, under-capitalised or unfocused players.''....
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-02-01/a-not-so-noble-pursuit



Goldman Sachs Says It May Be Forced to Fundamentally Question How Capitalism Is Working - The profit margins debate could lead to an unsettling conclusion. by Joe Weisenthal February 3, 2016; .... Goldman writes: "We are always wary of guiding for mean reversion. But, if we are wrong and high margins manage to endure for the next few years (particularly when global demand growth is below trend), there are broader questions to be asked about the efficacy of capitalism." In other words, profit margins should naturally mean-revert and oscillate. The existence of fat margins should encourage new competitors and pricing cycles that cause those margins to erode while conversely, at the bottom of the cycle, low margins should lead to weaker players exiting the business and giving stronger companies more breathing space. If that cycle doesn't continue, then something strange is taking place....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/goldman-sachs-says-it-may-be-forced-to-fundamentally-question-how-capitalism-is-working


Banker's Accounts Said to Be Frozen in Singapore 1MDB Probe by  Andrea Tan February 2, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/banker-s-accounts-said-to-be-frozen-amid-singapore-s-1mdb-probe-ik587yuc

Mahathir's Son Ousted as Malaysia Premier Tightens Grip on Power by  Pooi Koon Chong  Manirajan Ramasamy February 3, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/mahathir-s-son-ousted-as-malaysia-premier-tightens-grip-on-power


2 Feb 2016: Bloomberg - Japan Trading Houses Facing $13 Billion Hit on Commodity Misfire, Brent Crude 34.04

Japan Trading Houses Facing $13 Billion Hit on Commodity Misfire By Masumi Suga  Stephen Stapczynski Ichiro Suzuki February 2, 2016; Companies esteemed for creating `shosha man' plan writedowns. As raw-material prices fall, focus shifts to other businesses http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/japan-trading-houses-facing-13-billion-hit-on-commodity-misfire

Hong Kong Property Slump Worries Investors by Frederik Balfour February 2, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/hong-kong-property-sentiment-turns-as-sales-slump-to-25-year-low


Singapore Seizes `Large Number' of Bank Accounts Amid 1MDB Probe by   Jasmine Ng  February 1, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/singapore-seizes-large-number-of-bank-accounts-amid-1mdb-probe


1 Feb 2016: Lower-for-longer view for oil, HK retailers for Chinese New Year, Swiss Probe of Malaysia Fund Sees $4 Billion Possible Misuse, AUD plunge 'blessing', Brent Crude 35.30 


Editor's note: End of last and this week various industry friend meet-ups in run up into Lunar New Year long weekend upcoming. Rather downbeat mood.



Lower-for-Longer View for Oil Means More Deals on the Way by  Rakteem Katakey February 1, 2016 — 8:01 AM SGT. Value of M&A shrank by 17% to $380 billion last year, EY says. Consolidation to be driven by overcapacity, margin pressures http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/oil-deals-seen-gathering-pace-as-lower-for-longer-view-persists

Hong Kong Retailers Fear for Chinese New Year February 1, 2016  Chinese New Year (CNY) isn’t expected to be the seasonal boon for H.K. retailers that it has been in recent years due to yuan depreciation, market volatility and decline in same-day visitors from the mainland. Bloomberg's Catherine Larkin has more on "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-02-01/hong-kong-retailers-fear-for-chinese-new-year


Swiss Probe of Malaysia Fund Sees $4 Billion Possible Misuse by  Shamim Adam January 30, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-30/swiss-probe-of-malaysia-fund-finds-possible-misuse-of-4-billion


Aussie's Plunge to Seven-Year Low Is Turning Out to Be a Blessing by Candice Zachariahs February 1, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-31/as-currency-war-simmers-aussie-a-poster-child-for-market-forces


30 Jan 2016: Corporate debt hangover, China steel production's first drop since 1982, Swiss probe of Malaysia fund, Brent Crude 35.99



China Steel Production Has First Annual Drop Since 1981: Chart   Feiwen Rong  January 29, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/china-steel-production-has-first-annual-drop-since-1981-chart



The $29 Trillion Corporate Debt Hangover That Could Spark a Recession   Sally Bakewell  January 28, 2016; Leverage at companies worldwide swells to highest in 12 years. Capital not working hard enough at third of all firms  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/some-29-trillion-later-the-corporate-debt-boom-looks-exhausted



Swiss Probe of Malaysia Fund Sees $4 Billion Possible Misuse  Shamim Adam January 30, 2016; The Swiss Attorney-General’s office said in a statement Friday that during an investigation of 1Malaysia Development Bhd., four cases involving allegations of criminal conduct and occurring between 2009 and 2013 have so far come to light. It has been ascertained a small amount of funds were transferred to Swiss accounts of former Malaysian public officials, according to the statement. 

The Swiss authority is seeking help from the Malaysian attorney general to determine whether funds were misappropriated.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-30/swiss-probe-of-malaysia-fund-finds-possible-misuse-of-4-billion 


29 Jan 2016: Bloomberg - Russia and Goldman Sachs on oil, Japan negative interest rates, Brent Crude 34.26


Decision On Oil Cut Only Possible If All Exporters Agree, Russian Energy Minister Says January 29, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/russia-sees-decision-on-oil-cut-only-if-all-exporters-agree


Why Goldman Sachs Says $30 Oil Isn't Proof of Weak Demand by  Grant Smith  January 28, 2016, Brent spreads signal that demand isn't driving the rout. Prices low enough to cause `fundamental change' in supply. Oil’s collapse to $27 a barrel last week spurred concern that, on top of the existing oversupply, the market is facing a demand crisis. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. thinks that’s wrong. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/why-goldman-sachs-says-30-oil-isn-t-proof-of-weak-demand

PetroChina Expects 2015 Profit to Fall as Much as 70% on Oil Slump by   Bloomberg News http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/petrochina-sees-2015-profit-falling-as-much-as-70-on-oil-slump
Bank of Japan's Negative Interest Rate Decision Explained by   James Mayger January 29, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/bank-of-japan-s-negative-interest-rate-decision-explained
Stocks Rally With Bonds as BOJ Ends Grim January on High Note by  Emma O'Brien  Stephen Kirkland http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/asian-shares-set-for-gains-as-horror-month-ends-with-boj-update


26 Jan 2016: Oil - stocks correlation reflects fear of global recession, crude has been tracking an infamous subprime mortgage index, problems in retail, Brent crude 30.07 



Oil, Stocks at Tightest Correlation in 26 Years - The link reflects a common theme—a fear of a global recession By TOMMY STUBBINGTON and  GEORGI KANTCHEV Jan. 25, 2016 http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-stocks-dance-the-bear-market-tango-1453722783?tesla=y

So Yes, the Oil Crash Looks a Lot Like Subprime - The price of crude has been tracking an infamous subprime mortgage index. by Tracy Alloway http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-25/so-yes-the-oil-crash-looks-a-lot-like-subprime


January 25, 2016 



Why the Fed Is the Root of Much Market Turmoil - Fed is a key reason markets have plunged and risk of recession rising By GREG IP Jan. 25, 2016 http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-fed-is-the-root-of-much-market-turmoil-1453717801?tesla=y

WAL-MART: IT CAME, IT CONQUERED, NOW IT'S PACKING UP AND LEAVING

Mom-and-pop stores have steadily disappeared across America in the past three decades, but there was at least a Wal-Mart left behind to replace them after the mega chain finished putting them out of business. Now the Wal-Marts are disappearing too, leaving hundreds of communities without grocery stores and pharmacies and thousands of jobs.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-25/wal-mart-it-came-it-conquered-now-it-s-packing-up-and-leaving?cmpid=BBD012516_BIZ



LBOs. How Bad Is Retail? Look at the Bonds - Prices of retailers’ bonds tumble as investors see few options for private-equity owners to cash out By MATT JARZEMSKY Jan. 25, 2016; Bonds of major retailers that went through leveraged buyouts have fallen to distressed levels... http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-bad-is-retail-look-at-the-bonds-1453752646?tesla=y


23 Jan 2016: Global Stocks Surge Most Since 2012 on Stimulus Bets, Oil Rally , Nouriel Roubini: Global Economy Not Back to 2008, Brent Crude 32.18 +10%  



Nouriel Roubini: Global Economy Not Back to 2008 January 22, 2016; Nouriel Roubini, NYU professor and chairman at Roubini Global Economics, explains why the global economy isn’t facing the same conditions as 2008, and discusses expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike path and how QE is working in Europe. He speaks from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-22/nouriel-roubini-global-economy-not-back-to-2008





Global Stocks Surge Most Since 2012 on Stimulus Bets, Oil Rally by Jeremy Herron  Anna-Louise Jackson January 22, 2016; ....Global stocks surged the most in 3 1/2 years, as U.S. equities joined a rally that pushed oil to its best two days since 2009 on speculation that central banks will expand stimulus measures to counter turmoil in financial markets. Haven assets from Treasuries to gold retreated..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/asian-futures-point-to-rebound-amid-oil-jump-stimulus-prospects





China's Rich Stock Valuations Fuel Overseas Bargain Hunt: Chart by Jonathan Browning January 22, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/china-s-rich-stock-valuations-fuel-overseas-bargain-hunt-chart





China's Acquisition Spree Won't End Well 15 JAN 21, 2016 By Michael Schuman; ... China is on a shopping spree. On Jan. 12, Chinese property developer Dalian Wanda bought control of Hollywood film producer Legendary Entertainment for $3.5 billion. Just three days later, the appliance giant Haier acquired General Electric's white goods business for $5.4 billion.... The deals are just drops in a gushing torrent of Chinese overseas spending. Foreign direct investment from China reached $111 billion in 2015, by one estimate -- 10 times more than a decade earlier. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-22/china-s-acquisition-spree-won-t-end-well




22 Jan 2016: Talk of oil rebound pushing to short covering, Soros view on China, China talks to soothe market, EMM outflows and China OFDI frenzy, Brent crude 29.61


Editor's notes: 
  • Was just chatting with veteran Southeast Asia regional economist over breakfast yesterday and marvelling at the dismal news flow and the importance of business media in swinging moods! Question: Isn't it broadly good that prices are down for most people (barring those in over-capacity sectors shedding jobs?). 
  • Also chatted with one of the smartest business investors I know. Mulling the question of overcapacities. Also on prevalence of problem of emerging / frontier market investments having lower return than those in developed markets. And the news of capital outflow form EMM. The FDI boom reconsidered on returns problems? And look at the China OFDI push!
    ]
  • Source: Major loss of capital for emerging markets - Net outflows last year amounted to $1 trillion, with China making up bulk of it by Aaron Low 21 Jan 2016, http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/major-loss-of-capital-for-emerging-markets
  • Some market volatility mediation measures coming back in again? I've liked El-Erian commentary for a long time, so here's his comment below (LinkedIn screenshot).


George Soros Says He Expects Hard Landing for China Economy by Katherine Burton January 22, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/george-soros-says-he-expects-hard-landing-for-chinese-economy

Chinese Firms Are Deep in an Overseas Shopping Frenzy by  Fox Hu  Jonathan Browning January 22, 2016 — 12:00 AM SGT Updated on January 22, 2016. Listed companies announce $8.6 billion acquisitions this month. Outbound deal flow on track to overtake last year's record....Pricey stocks leave ample room for Chinese companies to boost returns by buying more profitable assets overseas for less. With domestic firms valued at more than three times the level in the U.S., what was previously a select group of China’s outbound acquirers is set to widen, helping the nation continue its record dealmaking run. “They’re trading at high multiples but often have lower earnings, and it’s about time that they take advantage of elevated valuations to buy something sizeable and something concrete,” said Samson Lo, head of Asia mergers and acquisitions at UBS Group AG. “In a sense, these companies are acting like financial investors.”.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/chinese-firms-mind-the-value-gap-and-prowl-for-deals-overseas

China Vice President Vows to ‘Look After’ Stock Market Investors by John Micklethwait  John Fraher, January 21, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/china-vice-president-vows-to-look-after-stock-market-investors

China Has No Intention to Devalue Yuan, Vice President Li Says by John Micklethwait  Enda Curran  January 21, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/china-has-no-intention-to-devalue-yuan-vice-president-li-says

Asian Stocks Bounce as Stimulus Talk Boosts Japan; Oil Nears $30 by Emma O'Brien  Jonathan Burgos,  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/asian-futures-point-to-rebound-amid-oil-jump-stimulus-prospects



21 Jan 2016: Entering margin call territory? Low shipping rates. Davos elites worry about oil and focus on cost cut push, Pope ticks off rich club, will US shale wipeout on $30 oil, Commodities Crash Boosts China's New Silk Road, Barclays cut IBank jobs with worst cuts in Asia, Brent crude 27.88





Editor's note: El Erian writes: "US Stock Market Update:  Along with today 3% drop so far, markets are starting to see cascading technical dislocations that typically accelerate disorderly de-leveraging." And he mentions the C word - contagion. More news on job rationalisation even at J&J. My business media friends in this part of the world tell me they also had job cuts (preparing for 2 years of lean). Notable in Davos linked news is that the 1% now have more than the 99%. Thus, I'm happy to read this note on the question balancing fairness and efficiency - the writer reckons that the "efficiency" narrative is a hegemonic message....  

  • Balancing Fairness and Efficiency By Noah Smith 31 JAN 11, 2016; One common criticism of economics is that it focuses too much on efficiency, and not enough on things like equality, fairness and the welfare of future generations. In the extreme version of the criticism, the focus on efficiency is a deliberate plot to keep resources in the hands of the wealthy.... http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-11/a-fair-world-doesn-t-have-to-be-an-inefficient-one






DoubleLine's Gundlach: Stock, credit declines suggest margin calls NEW YORK | BY JENNIFER ABLAN Jan 20, 2016  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-doubleline-gundlach-idUSKCN0UY2EH

Fannie Mae Shares Are Now Worth $1: Chart by  Katherine Chiglinsky January 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/fannie-mae-plunges-below-1-tumbling-70-from-2015-peak-chart

Shipping Rates So Low That Renting a Ferrari Costs More by  Alex Longley January 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/cheaper-than-ferraris-ship-rates-crushed-as-china-slows-chart



In Private Davos Meeting, Oil Chiefs Push Plan to Reduce Costs by  Javier Blas January 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/in-private-davos-meeting-oil-chiefs-push-plan-to-reduce-costs



Oil's Nightmare Scenario Dominates Davos by Javier Blas and  Grant Smith January 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/davos-view-on-oil-lower-for-longer-turning-into-something-worse





Oil below $30 fans wipeout fears among U.S. shale survival artists YORKTOWN, TEXAS | BY TERRY WADE AND ANNA DRIVER http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-shale-idUSKCN0UY0FC



Pope tells Davos elite: Consider your role in creating poverty Jan 20, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-pope-idUSKCN0UY1XT



'Middle-class Joe' Biden tells Davos bosses to look after workers Jan 20, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-biden-idUSKCN0UY2FY



Commodities Crash Boosts China's New Silk Road by Ting Shi January 21, 2016; ... lump could prove a blessing for President Xi Jinping’s signature initiative to build an intercontinental web of infrastructure and trade links with China at the center.... The New Silk Road program announced by Xi more than two years ago is finally gathering steam just as the prices of oil, steel, concrete and other building materials sink. That’s making it easier for China to sell its ambitious vision to build roads, railways, pipelines and ports from Xian to Athens, diversifying the country’s trade options and exporting the excess industrial capacity that’s dragging down its own economy... The so-called Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road -- or "One Belt, One Road," for short -- sits at the center of Xi’s effort to bolster geo-economic clout across more than 70 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa. With many nations along the route dependent on commodities exports, the prices slump could make them more willing to accept Beijing’s investment pitch and a share of its $40 billion Silk Road infrastructure fund....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/commodities-meltdown-boosts-china-s-bid-to-build-new-silk-road


Barclays to Cut Investment Bank Jobs in New York, London by Ambereen Choudhury and Stephen Morris January 21, 2016 ...  (cuts) most deeply in Asia, according to a person with knowledge of the matter... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/barclays-said-to-cut-investment-bank-jobs-in-london-new-york

US - How Bad Are the Job Cuts? By Rani Molla Jan 21, 2016 ... With Johnson & Johnson announcing 3,000 job cuts on Tuesday and Macy's announcing the same number of cuts earlier this month, 2016 is off to a dismal start for some U.S. workers. But how bad is it? Certainly it's no 2009 yet, when companies announced more than 900,000 job cuts, according to Bloomberg data for public and private North American companies. Last year, nearly 300,000 jobs were cut. ..http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-01-20/job-cuts-how-bad-are-they-



20 Jan 2015: IEA sees risk of 1.5 million barrel glut, Davos elites not worrying about economic risks? Eye on Yuan. Brent crude 28.76

IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil by Grant Smith January 19, 2016; ...The IEA trimmed 2016 estimates for global oil demand as China’s economic expansion weakens and raised forecasts for supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. While non-OPEC supply is set to drop 600,000 barrels a day in 2016, Iran’s comeback could fill that gap by the middle of the year. As a result, world markets may be left with a surplus of 1.5 million barrels a day in the first half....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/iea-says-oil-rout-could-deepen-as-market-drowns-in-oversupply


IMF Global Forecast 'Largely Nonsensical': Paul Donovan UBS http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/imf-trims-global-outlook-as-brazil-slump-oil-weigh-on-expansion

Dollar's advance stalls as crude wobbles, sterling near seven-year low TOKYO | BY SHINICHI SAOSHIRO Jan 19, 2016 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex-idUSKCN0UY01S


Davos Gets Jittery as Trump Rises, Oil Falls and China Slows by Simon Kennedy and Matthew Campbell January 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/davos-gets-jittery-as-trump-rises-oil-falls-and-china-slows


The Charts That Tell You Everything About Davos - Risks, robots, rock stars, and the global elite. by Jennifer Ryan January 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/davos-2016-the-charts-that-say-world-economic-forum- 


Aberdeen Is Loading Up on Stocks And Wants More If Rout Deepens by Roxana Zega January 20, 2016; .. While Aberdeen has suffered withdrawals and its own shares have slumped 55 percent since April, the company isn’t the only one betting on a recovery in emerging markets.... After plunging to an almost seven-year low, stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are 29 percent cheaper than those in advanced nations... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/aberdeen-is-loading-up-on-stocks-and-wants-more-if-rout-deepens


Hedge Fund That Called Subprime Crisis Says Yuan Should Fall 50% by Saijel Kishan  January 20, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/hedge-fund-that-called-subprime-crisis-says-yuan-should-fall-50-


Strong El Nino Seen Sticking Around as Cyclones Delay Demise by Phoebe Sedgman January 19, 2016; ... Recent tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific Ocean has produced strong westerly winds along the equator, which may temporarily slow El Nino’s decline, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said Tuesday on its website...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/strong-el-nino-seen-sticking-around-as-cyclones-delay-demise



18 Jan 2015: Bloomberg - Brent dips below $28 on Iran, miners routed, emerging market rout indicators but China bracing for worse (on market overvaluation?), listening to El-Erian on oil

Editor's note: I was just watching this - El-Erian: 'Massive' Supply Disruption to Lift Oil Prices January 16, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-15/el-erian-massive-supply-disruption-to-lift-oil-prices; where he says oil below $30 is not fundamental, unless there has been market change e.g. loss of swing producer, which market needs to adjust to.


Brent Drops Below $28 as Iran Sanctions Lift Set to Worsen Glut by Anthony Dipaola and Ben Sharples  BenSharps anuary 18, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-17/brent-oil-extends-decline-below-28-as-iran-set-to-worsen-glut

Oil Speculators Raise Bets on Falling Prices to All-Time High by Mark Shenk January 18, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-18/oil-speculators-raise-bets-on-falling-prices-to-all-time-high

Miners Routed as Crude Oil Tumbles, Goldman Predicts More Losses by David Stringer January 18, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-17/miners-routed-as-crude-oil-tumbles-goldman-predicts-more-losses

Five Charts Show How Bad the Emerging-Market Stock Rout Really Is by  Phil Kuntz  January 18, 2016 — 2:14 AM SGT. Developing-nation stocks have lost 12 percent in three weeks. Middle East and Latin American markets are at oversold levels. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-17/emerging-market-rout-visualized-in-graphs-shows-abundant-gloom

China's Stock Strategists Are Bracing for a Deeper Bear Market by  Bloomberg News  January 18, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-18/china-s-stock-strategists-are-bracing-for-a-deeper-bear-market


17 Jan 2015: Iran to boost  oil exports, Wal-Mart trims stores and affecting 16,000 jobs, Brent Crude 28.94

Iran Kicks Off Plan to Boost Oil Exports as Sanctions Lifted by  Anthony Dipaola and Hashem Kalantari January 17, 2016; Country seeking immediate increase of 500,000 barrels a day. Greater Iran sales to pressure prices amid oil glut: Mills. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-17/iran-kicks-off-plan-to-boost-oil-exports-as-sanctions-lifted


The Simple Truth About China’s Market - It’s not just clumsy trading rules that have made the mainland’s stocks so risky. By  Zeke Faux January 15, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/the-simple-truth-about-china-s-market

Wal-Mart Makes Rare Retreat on Home Turf - Closing of 269 stores includes all 102 U.S. Walmart Express stores, affects 16,000 jobs By SARAH NASSAUER and  KATE DAVIDSON Updated Jan. 15, 2016 7:22 p.m. ET; Wal-Mart is closing more than 150 stores in the U.S., a rare retreat for the behemoth on its home turf, capping what has been a difficult year for retailers as shoppers slowed their spending pace and accelerated their shift to the Internet. Economic data released on Friday showed the U.S. economy entered 2016 with little momentum from one of its key sectors. U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in December, and were up just 2.1% for all of 2015, compared with a 3.9% annual gain the previous year, the Commerce Department said on... http://www.wsj.com/articles/wal-mart-to-close-269-stores-globally-1452868122?tesla=y


Bloomberg: The company plans to close 269 stores, including its experimental small-format Express outlets, in a push to streamline the chain. More than 16,000 jobs will be affected. The numbers sound ominously large, but the plan will affect less than 1 percent of the company’s total square footage and revenue. Investors don’t seem to think the cuts are enough; shares fell 1.8 percent after the announcement.... Wal-Mart to Shut Hundreds of Stores by Shannon Pettypiece January 15, 2016; .... The move by the largest private employer in the U.S. will affect about 10,000 jobs domestically at 154 locations, according to a statement Friday. Overseas, the effort will eliminate 6,000 jobs and includes the closing of 60 money-losing stores in Brazil, a country where Wal-Mart has struggled.....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/wal-mart-to-shut-hundreds-of-stores-including-express-locations?cmpid=BBD011516_BIZ

15 Jan 2015: Renewables investment still at record, Bank of Indonesia cuts rates to prioritise growth, Jakarta attack brings IS to Southeast Asia

Solar and Wind Just Did the Unthinkable - Cheap oil and gas couldn't stop another record year for renewables, or a turning point for energy investment. by Tom Randall January 14, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/solar-and-wind-just-did-the-unthinkable


Bank of Indonesia Cuts Rates to 7.25% by  Chris Brummitt and  Rieka Rahadiana January 14, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/indonesia-cuts-interest-rate-prioritizing-growth-over-currency

Indonesia Attack Brings Islamic State to Southeast Asia's Door by  Chris Brummitt January 15, 2016; Gun and suicide bomb assault follows months of warnings. Police say attack planned by Indonesian in IS stronghold Raqqa. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/indonesia-attack-brings-islamic-state-to-southeast-asia-s-door


14 Jan 2015: Bloomberg news scan - For Real Oil Prices, the Crash Is Even Bigger, China yuan drop but lots of stocks oversold, Brent Crude 29.94  9:15PM EST


Editor's note: This morning, Brent dipped below $30! Looking at the start of this posting on oil price (and macro), I've been tracking the news since the slide from $85. Looking back, I recall being particularly interested when the previous low (June 2012) was broken; see price chart from Bloomberg screen shot, with approximate blog start date indicated:  

Source: Generic 1st 'CO' Future CO1:COM  


http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM


For Real Oil Prices, the Crash Is Even Bigger as China Fizzles by Grant Smith  January 14, 2016; ....West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, sank below $30 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since 2003. Actual barrels of Saudi Arabian crude shipped to Asia are even cheaper, at $26 -- the lowest since early 2002 once inflation is factored in and near levels seen before the turn of the millennium; .... West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, sank below $30 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since 2003. Actual barrels of Saudi Arabian crude shipped to Asia are even cheaper, at $26 -- the lowest since early 2002 once inflation is factored in and near levels seen before the turn of the millennium.....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/for-real-oil-prices-the-crash-is-even-bigger-as-china-fizzles

HSBC's Bloom Says Speed of Yuan Drop Is Frightening http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-14/hsbc-s-bloom-says-speed-of-yuan-drop-is-frightening-video-

The Good News for China Is Hundreds of Stocks Oversold: Chart by Phil Kuntz January 14, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/china-s-good-news-hundreds-of-stocks-oversold-in-rout-chart

Iron Ore `Not Yet at the Bottom' as Citigroup Says $20s Possible by   Jasmine Ng  January 14, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/iron-ore-not-yet-at-the-bottom-as-citigroup-says-20s-possible

Goldman Said to Mull Cutting Fixed-Income Staff More Than 5% by Michael J Moore January 14, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/goldman-said-to-weigh-cutting-more-than-5-of-fixed-income-staff


12 Jan 2016: Bloomberg - Oil Extends Losses From 12-Year Low as Stockpiles Seen Expanding, China's Demand for Crude is Showing Signs of Cracking, 2016 growth losers, Brent Crude 31.33 

Note:
  • The recent price drop from around $38 toward $31 may highlight these major producers by cost: United States $36.20, Norway $36.10, Angola $35.40, Colombia $35.30, Nigeria$31.60. See diagram below.
  • Certainly also issues for POGO food-fuel price spread re. biodiesel. 
  • China GDP and oil demand is eyed, and into the future, car makers start to worry about tech disruption to their industry.





Source: What it costs to produce oil By Alanna Petroff and Tal Yellin / CNNMoney - The collapse in the price of oil has squeezed energy companies and countries that were betting on higher returns. Here’s what it costs on average to pump a barrel of oil in the 20 biggest oil producing nations. http://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/the-cost-to-produce-a-barrel-of-oil/index.html?iid=EL. 


Oil tumbles nearly 5 percent to new lows; analysts warn of $20s - A brutal new year selloff in oil markets deepened on Monday, with prices plunging as much as 5 percent to new 12-year lows as further ructions in the Chinese stock market threatened to knock crude into the $20s. http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0UP01T20160111



Oil Extends Losses From 12-Year Low as Stockpiles Seen Expanding by Ben Sharples January 12, 2016, Inventories probably rose 2 million barrels last week: survey, Iran to starting selling new oil grade before boosting exports... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/oil-extends-decline-from-12-year-low-as-stockpiles-seen-rising


China's Demand for Crude is Showing Signs of Cracking - Resilient supply isn't the only problem for crude. by Luke Kawa, January 11, 2016; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/china-s-demand-for-crude-is-showing-signs-of-cracking



The End of the Monetary Illusion Magnifies Shocks for Markets by Simon Kennedy January 8, 2016; Central banks no longer have as much room to deliver stimulus. HSBC says currencies most sensitive to policy in 15 years... Central bankers are no longer the circuit breakers for financial markets. Monetary-policy makers, market saviors the past decade through the promise of interest-rate reductions or asset purchases, now lack the space to cut further -- if at all -- or buy more. Even those willing to intensify their efforts increasingly doubt the potency of such policies. That’s leaving investors having to cope alone with shocks such as this week’s rout in China or when economic data disappoint, magnifying the impact of such events....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-08/the-end-of-the-monetary-illusion-magnifies-shocks-for-markets


Meet 2016's Worst Economic Performers by Andre Tartar, A Catarina Saraiva,  Cynthia Li, January 11, 2016; Oil-rich Venezuela will contract by 3.3 percent this year, the worst forecast of any of the 93 countries in our analysis, followed by junk-rated Brazil, debt-laden Greece and commodities-ravaged Russia. Below are the bottom 10.... 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/meet-2016-s-worst-economic-performers-flirting-with-disaster?cmpid=BBD011116



The driverless, car-sharing road ahead - Carmakers increasingly fret that their industry is on the brink of huge disruption Jan 9th 2016; ...Now, Mr Fields is talking about autonomous cars being ready to roll by 2020. More conservative car bosses add five years.... Barclays, another bank, forecasts that the fully driverless vehicle will result in the average American household cutting its car ownership from 2.1 vehicles now to 1.2 by 2040.... The 11m or so annual sales of mass-market cars for personal ownership in America may be replaced by 3.8m sales of self-driving cars, either personally owned or part of taxi fleets, Barclays thinks....http://www.economist.com/news/business/21685459-carmakers-increasingly-fret-their-industry-brink-huge-disruption?cid1=cust/noenew/n/n/n/20160111n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/email

 6 Jan 2016: Mideast tensions trumped by oil supply glut? Markets start off rough - China's terrible start; Brent Crude 36.51


Editor's note: O&G job cuts are the making rounds in social media - I've seen this twice now (looks like Maybank report):



This Time Mideast Tensions Are Bad News for Oil by Angelina Rascouet  and  Anthony Dipaola January 5, 2016; ... That the rally this time couldn’t be sustained shows just how abnormal things are in the oil market. Brent crude is little changed this week as a global supply glut and the slowest Chinese growth in a generation trumped mounting strife between the nations on either side of the world’s busiest waterway for oil tankers.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-04/oil-shrugs-as-glut-blunts-shock-from-deeper-saudi-iran-conflict?cmpid=BBD010516_BIZ


China's Terrible Start to 2016 Has Beijing Fighting Market Fires by   Bloomberg News   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-05/china-s-terrible-start-to-2016-has-beijing-fighting-market-fires?cmpid=BBD010516_BIZ


Won Drops With Kospi on Quake Near North Korea Nuclear Test Site by  Justina Lee  January 6, 2016  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/won-drops-with-kospi-on-quake-near-north-korea-nuclear-test-site



4 Jan 2016: Big oil to cut investment again in 2016 - at around $37 a barrel, crude prices are well below the $60 some companies need, Saudi Arabia Cuts Ties With Iran, China factories slump, Brent Crude 37.93

Big oil to cut investment again in 2016 By Karolin Schaps and Ron Bousso Jan 3, 2016; At around $37 a barrel, crude prices are well below the $60 firms such as Total (TOTF.PA), Statoil STO.OL and BP (BP.L) need to balance their books, a level that has already been sharply reduced over the past 18 months. International oil companies are once again being forced to cut spending, sell assets, shed jobs and delay projects as the oil slump shows no sign of recovery.  U.S. producers Chevron (CVX.N) and ConocoPhillips (COP.N) have published plans to slash their 2016 budgets by a quarter. Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) has also announced a further $5 billion in spending cuts if its planned takeover of BG Group (BG.L) goes ahead. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-oil-companies-investments-idUKKBN0UH0AG20160103

Saudi Arabia Cuts Ties With Iran After Tehran Embassy Attack by Zaid Sabah and Deema Almashabi January 4, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-03/saudis-cut-diplomatic-ties-with-iran-foreign-minister-says-iiyzvsw5

Oil Finds a Silver Lining in China's Unsated Thirst for Crude by  Bloomberg News  January 4, 2016. Imports seen expanding 8% to 7.2 million barrels a day in 2016. Demand will be driven by stockpiling, independent refiners http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-04/oil-finds-a-silver-lining-in-china-s-unsated-thirst-for-crude

China's Two-Speed Economy Stays Intact as Factories Slump, Services Gain by Bloomberg News  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-03/two-speed-china-economy-intact-as-factories-slump-services-gain

China Factory Gauge Signals Contraction Continued a Fifth Month by Bloomberg News  January 1, 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-01/china-s-factory-gauge-edges-up-as-stimulus-gains-traction



20 December 2015: Crude stockpiles highest for this time of year since 1930: EIA, Oil at Six-Year Low as Glut Worsens While Fed Boosts Dollar, Indonesia Stays on Hold as Fed Move Stokes Currency Fears,  Brent Crude 36.88


Oil heads for third straight weekly loss as supply weighs Dec 18, 2015 LONDON  |  By Karolin Schaps; The global supply glut that brought prices close to 11-year lows this week means Brent will post losses for a third consecutive year, the first time that has happened since exchange-based oil trading started in the 1980s.... Prominent oil trader Pierre Andurand said prices could fall below $25 a barrel in the first quarter of 2016.... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN0U103V20151218


Oil at Six-Year Low as Glut Worsens While Fed Boosts Dollar  by Rakteem Katakey and Ramsey Al-Rikabi December 18, 2015; Crude stockpiles highest for this time of year since 1930: EIA. Fed-induced dollar rally pushes commodities to 16-year low http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-17/oil-set-for-third-weekly-loss-as-supply-glut-seen-relentless


This Year's Worst Commodity Is One You Probably Can't Pronounce by Sonja Elmquist and Joe Deaux December 18, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/this-year-s-worst-commodity-is-one-you-probably-can-t-pronounce


Glencore's Rating Cut at Moody's Though Outlook Seen Stable by Jesse Riseborough  December 18, 2015; `Pricing environment in mining will remain unfavorable' Trading division will contribute `strongly' to profit: Moody's


Indonesia Stays on Hold as Fed Move Stokes Currency Fears December 17, 2015; Central bank decision forecast by 21 out of 22 economists. Vice president had been calling for cut to boost growth.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-17/indonesia-stays-on-hold-as-fed-rate-move-stokes-currency-fears


Dollar Rally Is Over for $60 Billion Unit of Norway's Top Bank  by  Jonas Cho Walsgard December 20, 2015; DNB says drop in commodities also getting `long in the tooth' DNB says room for profit margins to increase in Europe; For the unit at Norway’s biggest bank deciding how to invest client funds, 2016 will be a pivotal year as it predicts the rally in the U.S. dollar will finally come to an end. DNB Asset Management, which oversees about $60 billion, is adjusting its portfolio to profit from its forecast for a less buoyant dollar and a recovery in emerging markets and commodities...... The asset manager has “shaved a little bit off” its overweight in equities in technology stocks, consumer cyclicals, health care and finance, while moving up to market weight for its holdings in energy and materials. DNB Asset Management, which holds 70 percent in fixed income, 20 percent in equity and 10 percent is real estate, is overall neutral on equities. A low-growth outlook with flat earnings, monetary policies beyond a maximum point of liquidity and “neutral” pricing are all reason to be cautious, Mikkelsen said.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-20/dollar-rally-is-over-for-60-billion-unit-of-norway-s-top-bank



16 December 2015: China decision to suspend fuel cuts puts $38 floor under oil prices? Oil in $20s a Risk as Citigroup Sees Crude Storage Tanks Fill Up  and other Bloomberg news links, World Bank - 2016 will be "another disappointing year for the global economy as a whole, but especially for emerging markets and raw commodity producers; Brent Crude 38.37


China Has Something to Tell OPEC: Oil Prices Have Fallen Too Far by  Bloomberg News  December 16, 2015; Decision to suspend fuel cuts puts $38 floor under oil prices, OPEC effectively abandoned crude production quota on Dec. 4... “China’s decision to not cut refined product (gasoline, diesel) prices is a first,” analysts including Neil Beveridge wrote in the report. The move “sends a signal to OPEC that its largest customer (China) believes that oil prices are too cheap.” China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, said it will suspend fuel price cuts while crude continues to fall in order to slow consumption growth and trim automobile emissions. Gasoline demand in the country increased 10.4 percent in the first 10 months of the year from the same period of 2014, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/china-has-something-to-tell-opec-oil-prices-have-fallen-too-far


World Bank president interview - The time is right for structural reforms by KEN MORIYASU, Nikkei staff writer; TOKYO -- For emerging markets, the state of "nirvana" they have been enjoying appears to be over. The commodities super cycle has ground to a halt, global trade is sagging, and investor confidence about keeping money in developing markets is declining rapidly. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim sees this as a defining moment, a crossroads, where countries decide whether they will go down the path of structural reform or stay the course..... Pure commodity exporters need to focus more on value-added. Instead of shipping out raw commodities, they need to be involved in processing them. Many economies have to diversify the sources of their economic growth. With oil and gas prices so low, it is also the right time to remove fossil fuel subsidies," he said....... Kim said that 2016 will be "another disappointing year for the global economy as a whole, but especially for emerging markets. There is much slower growth in emerging markets." In the "Global Economic Prospects" report issued in June, the World Bank set its 2016 growth forecast at 3.3% for the whole world and 5.2% for developing countries. The bank is expected to bring down both in the next Global Economic Prospects report due in January 2016.... http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/The-time-is-right-for-structural-reforms


Oil in $20s a Risk as Citigroup Sees Crude Storage Tanks Fill Up by Grant Smith  December 15, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/oil-in-20s-a-risk-as-citigroup-sees-crude-storage-tanks-fill-up


Why Forecasting Commodity Prices May Be Pointless  December 16, 2015 Aswath Damodaran, a New York University professor, discusses the outlook for commodity companies with Bloomberg's Alix Steel, Joe Weisenthal and Scarlet Fu on "What'd You Miss?" (Source: Bloomberg)  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-12-15/why-forecasting-commodity-prices-may-be-pointless


Japan's Pampered Cows Eat Cheap Feed to Get Profit on $250 Steak by Aya Takada December 16, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/japan-s-pampered-cows-eat-cheap-feed-to-get-profit-on-250-steak


Here's What 7 Years at Zero Rates Have Looked Like - Charting out the forces that kept policy easy  by Jeanna Smialek  December 16, 2015  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/here-s-what-7-years-at-zero-rates-have-looked-like


China Seen Laying Down $15 Billion Bet on Electric Vehicles by  Bloomberg News  December 16, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/china-seen-laying-15-billion-bet-future-of-autos-is-electric



14 December 2015: IEA Warns of Worsening Oil Glut, oil slump biggest risk for Malaysia debt, climate deal requires $16.5 trillion, mining woes hit big miners, COP 21 links, Brent Crude 37.93


COP21: Paris climate deal is 'best chance to save planet' 13 December 2015 http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35086346



IEA Warns of Worsening Oil Glut http://bloom.bg/1jTVfWp


Oil Slump Now Biggest Risk for Malaysia Debt as 1MDB Mess Fixed by Elffie Chew  and Lilian Karunungan December 11, 2015; Fitch warns 2016 deficit may exceed prime minister's target. Default risk heads for biggest quarterly drop in four years. As Malaysia’s debt-ridden state investment company finds buyers for its assets, investors say slumping oil is the biggest threat still hanging over the nation’s finances. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-10/1mdb-fix-leaves-oil-as-malaysia-debt-risk-with-najib-digging-in


Climate Deal Requires $16.5 Trillion Investment to Cut Pollution  by Alex Morales and Ewa Krukowska  December 13, 2015; UN deal in Paris would require much deeper fossil fuel cuts.  Envoys from 187 nations submit action plans to cut emissions The deal struck at United Nations climate talks requires an overhaul of historic proportions for energy policies worldwide and a huge investment in cleaning up the pollution now damaging the Earth’s atmosphere. Targets outlined in the agreement on Saturday, involving 195 countries, will require $16.5 trillion of spending on renewables and efficiency through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. To accomplish that, governments will have to offer incentives for clean energy production, scale back support for fossil fuels like oil, make emissions more costly, and reduce deforestation. The changes will touch industries from transport to construction, and encourage people to change their behavior. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-13/climate-deal-requires-16-5-trillion-investment-to-cut-pollution


It's All Gone Wrong for One of World's Biggest Mining Companies  by Thomas Biesheuvel December 9, 2015; Anglo American will shrink to a shadow of its former self. $14 billion Brazilian mine epitomizes company's decline.. Even for a company that once had the global monopoly on diamond production during almost a century of all but constant expansion, the collapse in commodities prices is proving too much... Anglo American Plc, a conglomerate spanning everything from brewing, publishing and gold mining during its peak in the early 1990s, will shrink beyond recognition after Chief Executive Officer Mark Cutifani on Tuesday announced a package of asset sales, mine closures and job cuts. Among the potential casualties is Minas Rio, a Brazilian iron-ore mine where spiraling costs and collapsing prices turned a $14 billion project into the epitome of the company’s predicament. “Minas Rio is the high water mark of their mistakes,” said Jeremy Wrathall, head of global natural resources at Investec Plc. “It was a series of strategic errors, the collective madness of the super cycle where everyone got it wrong.”... ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-09/it-s-all-gone-wrong-for-one-of-world-s-biggest-mining-companies



 

12 December 2015: Markets and commodities down, China may loosen Yuan's peg


S&P 500 Loses Nearly 4% for the Week as Commodities Tumble - U.S. crude falls below $36 a barrel, hitting nearly seven-year low By by Corrie Driebusch  Updated Dec. 11, 2015 http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-pressured-by-oil-and-fed-1449825582?tesla=y


China Signals Intention to Potentially Loosen Yuan's Peg to the U.S. Dollar - China's central bank signaled its intention to change the way it manages the yuan's value by potentially loosening its peg to the U.S. dollar and instead letting it track the currencies of its broader trading partners.  In an editorial posted on its website Friday night, the People's Bank of China said it makes more sense to measure the yuan's exchange rate against a basket of currencies than the dollar alone. The foreign-exchange trading system run by the central bank will start calculating a yuan exchange-rate index Friday to provide a reference against a basket of currencies, the PBOC said.   http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-central-bank-signals-intention-to-loosen-yuans-peg-to-dollar-1449843879?mod=djemalertMARKET

 

8 December 2015: Oil price hits fresh post 2009 lows as glut grows, oil-linked currencies take a beating, what a climate deal means for oil markets, carbon markets are making a comeback? Brent Crude 40.10


Brent Oil Falls Below $40 a Barrel - Fundamental concerns regarding oversupply still blight the market By Kevin Baxter Dec. 8, 2015 http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-rise-but-more-pain-is-expected-1449577680?mod=djemalertMARKET



Oil Tumbles as OPEC Opens the Taps on Output Target December 8, 2015, OPEC's decision to not limit oil production has sent prices tumbling further, as Brent Crude fell to six-year lows in London trading. Bloomberg's Julian Lee and David Wethe examine the influence OPEC holds over the oil industry and the prospect of even more oil flooding the market going forward. They speak on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-12-07/oil-tumbles-as-opec-opens-the-taps-on-output-target


Oil price hits fresh post 2009 lows as glut grows Dec 8, 2015 LONDON  | By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Simon Falush...  Oil prices resumed their slide on Tuesday, with U.S. crude falling below $37 per barrel for the first time since early 2009, amid fears the world was running out of capacity to store crude as a global glut intensifies. The global oversupply is being compounded by OPEC's failure last week to agree a production ceiling, with members Iran and Iraq promising to ramp up output and exports next year.... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN0TR03420151208#YSJPuwbQvewlxJO3.99


OPEC's Oil Market Disarray Looks Like 1990s Slump All Over Again  by Javier Blas December 8 2015  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-07/opec-s-oil-market-disarray-looks-like-1990s-slump-all-over-again


When Abu Dhabi Resembles Frontier Market You Know Oil Hurts by Ahmed A Namatalla  and Arif Sharif December 8, 2015...Oil’s plunge to almost $40 a barrel is roiling the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, throwing government spending plans into disarray, sapping stock trading and valuations, driving up bank borrowing costs and ...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/when-abu-dhabi-resembles-frontier-market-you-know-oil-is-hurting

Cheap Oil Could Fuel Europe’s Refugee Crisis - As the price of oil falls, Iraq’s Kurds and the UN are struggling to look after those fleeing conflict.  by Tom Mackenzie and Ed Kiernan  December 8, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/oil-price-falls-could-make-europe-s-refugee-crisis-worse

Oil-linked currencies take a beating, Canadian dollar at 11-year low  Tue Dec 8, 2015 LONDON  | By Anirban Nag http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex-idUSKBN0TQ2XE20151208#RPD6d5ogY1H0HLdM.99


Iron Ore in $30s Seen Near Tipping Point for Largest Miners by Jasmine Ng and David Stringer December 8, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/when-abu-dhabi-resembles-frontier-market-you-know-oil-is-hurting


What a climate deal means for oil markets By Michelle Patron December 8, 2015 Over the next two weeks countries from around the world are convening in Paris to develop a global plan to address climate change. A successful deal in Paris could have significant impacts for energy and equity markets.... The most immediate market impact is in the power sector where a strong agreement will extend and accelerate the shift from coal to alternative power sources including renewables, nuclear and in some cases natural gas. The International Energy Agency estimates that renewable energy will become the largest single power source by 2040 and the share of coal will decline from 41 to 31 percent.... Continued improvements in vehicle efficiency and removal of fossil fuel subsidies can moderately reduce demand with the impact growing over time as the vehicle fleet changes. Success in Paris can also inject momentum into global negotiations underway on aviation and marine fuel controls. Perhaps the most critical variable for oil is how a deal impacts alternative fuels in road transportation....The bottom line is that global climate action widens the range of risks in the energy sector. Ten years ago, German utilities were seen as stable investments, now they are struggling under the weight of policies pushing renewables and reductions in technology costs. Prudent companies and investors should begin factoring these risks into their oil portfolios now...  http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/12/07/what-a-climate-deal-means-for-oil-markets/


Carbon Markets Are Making a Slow, But Steady, Comeback by Alex Nussbaum, Ewa Krukowska, Mathew Carr December 8, 2015 - The prophets of carbon markets think their day has come. Again. OECD head chides politicians for being ``a little trivial''...Two decades ago, Richard Sandor had a grand plan to reduce the pollution that causes global warming -- and maybe get rich in the process. The rich part worked. For the rest, reality intervened. Today, Sandor’s vision of thriving global carbon markets -- capitalist arenas that would turn the right to pollute into a commodity like gold or oil and, over time, reduce emissions -- has fallen well short of the mark. In its first attempts, prices collapsed, trading waned and early enthusiasts withdrew. The invisible hand of the market has yet to establish a firm grip. But with 195 countries now wrestling in Paris over how to reduce harmful greenhouse gases, the father of carbon markets, as Sandor is often dubbed, and his fellow travelers remain unbowed. They maintain their ma ket-based solution, despite its stumbles, still offers the best way forward. “I do think it’s an inexorable trend,” said Sandor, who has some experience in the matter. The 74-year-old is a serial inventor of trading mechanisms and widely credited with creating interest-rate futures and helping propel the Chicago Board of Trade from grain and pork bellies to sophisticated financial derivatives. In 2003, he formed the world’s first carbon exchange, which he sold seven years later for $600 million....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/after-two-decades-of-stumbles-carbon-market-pioneers-revving-up





24 November 2015: Commodities strike 2002 bottom; end off low on oil - Saudi cooperation hope, hedge funds bearish US oil, Mexico windfall, China worries, Brent Crude 44.96

 

Dollar hovers near eight-month peak, buoyed by Fed policy expectations By Shinichi Saoshiro Nov 23, 2015  http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/24/us-global-forex-idUSKBN0TD00H20151124#jQp6CbwCrQlAODbE.97

Commodities strike 2002 bottom; end off low on oil Nov 23, 2015 NEW YORK | BY BARANI KRISHNAN http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/23/us-global-commodities-idUSKBN0TC1P220151123


Oil Advances as Saudi Arabia Reiterates Market Stability Pledge by Ben Sharples November 24, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/oil-trades-near-42-as-saudis-reiterate-market-stability-pledge


Cut Oil Supply or Drop Riyal Peg? Saudis Face ‘Critical’ Choice by Ahmed A Namatalla November 23, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-22/cut-oil-supply-or-drop-riyal-peg-saudis-face-critical-choice


OPEC Seen Holding the Line as $40 Oil Looms Over Vienna Meeting  by Grant Smith and  Mark Shenk  November 24, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/opec-seen-holding-the-line-as-40-oil-looms-over-vienna-meeting


Oil Trades Near $42 as Saudi Arabia Says It's Ready to Cooperate by Mark Shenk November 23, 2015; ... Venezuela predicted prices may tumble to the mid-$20s a barrel unless OPEC tackles the global surplus. Venezuela is urging the group to adopt an “equilibrium price” that covers the cost of new investment in production capacity, Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino said Sunday  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/oil-declines-as-venezuela-sees-mid-20-crude-on-opec-inaction


Oil Deal of the Year: Mexico Set for $6 Billion Windfall by Javier Blas November 23, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/oil-deal-of-the-year-mexico-set-for-6-billion-hedging-windfall


Mining Stocks Lead Asia Losses as Metals Fall to Multi Year Lows  by Adam Haigh and Emma O'Brien November 24, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/asian-equity-outlook-mixed-after-dollar-propels-copper-selloff


Hedge funds turn very bearish on U.S. crude: Kemp LONDON | BY JOHN KEMP Nov 23, 2015 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/23/us-oil-hedgefunds-kemp-idUSKBN0TC1XW20151123


Bank of America: The 'Great Divorce' Between the World's Two Largest Economies Will Drive Currency and Rates Markets in 2016 - The "marriage of convenience" is over. by Luke Kawa November 24, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/bank-of-america-the-great-divorce-between-the-world-s-two-largest-economies-will-drive-currency-and-rates-markets-in-2016


A Hard Landing in China Could 'Shake the World' "A slowing China redistributes global economic activity through the commodity channel as much as dampening it"  by Malcolm Scott  November 20, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/a-hard-landing-in-china-could-shake-the-world-


Does China Have a $1.2 Trillion Ponzi Problem? November 20, 2015 - Chinese borrowers are taking on record amounts of debt to repay interest on their existing obligations, raising the risk of defaults and adding pressure on policy makers to keep financing costs low. Bloomberg's Stephen Engle has more on "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-11-20/does-china-have-a-1-2-trillion-ponzi-problem-




10 November 2015: Platts - Comparisons between IEA, EIA, OPEC oil market forecasts, Bloomberg links on Saudi Oil MInister, oil market risks, Baltic Dry Index, bleak outlooks in steel-iron ore, copper; climate agreement issues, Brent Crude 44.10


Comparisons between IEA, EIA, OPEC oil market forecasts, London (Platts)--15Nov2015... "Stockpiles of oil at a record 3 billion barrels are providing world markets with a degree of comfort. This massive cushion has inflated even as the global oil market adjusts to $50/b oil. Demand growth has risen to a five-year high of nearly 2 million b/d, with India galloping to its fastest pace in more than a decade. But gains in demand have been outpaced by vigorous production from OPEC and resilient non-OPEC supply -- with Russian output at a post-Soviet record and likely to remain robust in 2016 as well," the IEA said. "The net result is brimming crude oil stocks that offer an uprecedented buffer against geopolitical shocks or unexpected supply disruptions."   But the IEA also noted forecasts of a mild winter in the US and Europe, adding that if these expectations turned out to be the case, "bulging stock evels will add further pressure and oil market bears may choose not to hibernate." 


Saudi Oil Minister Says OPEC With Others to Stabilize Market  by Wael Mahdi November 19, 2015; ...Brent has lost 23 percent this year. The oil market will start to re-balance next year and prices will improve, Matar al-Neyadi, energy undersecretary for the United Arab Emirates, said at the conference. ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/saudi-oil-minister-says-opec-with-others-to-stabilize-market


Biggest Oil Market Risks for 2016  November 19, 2015 Ecstrat strategist Emad Mostaque discusses the biggest oil risks in 2016 with Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal, Alix Steel and Scarlet Fu on "What'd You Miss?" (Source: Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-11-18/biggest-oil-market-risks-for-2016


Baltic Dry Shipping Index Drops to All-Time Low by Manisha Jha and Naomi Christie November 19, 2015; ...The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates for everything from coal to ore to grains, fell to 504 points on Thursday, the lowest data from the London-based Baltic Exchange going back to 1985. Among the causes of shipowners’ pain is slowing economic growth in China, which is translating into weakening demand for imported iron ore that’s used to make the steel....  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/baltic-dry-ship-index-drops-to-record-as-iron-ore-growth-slump


Iron Ore Bludgeoned to Record Low in Asia on China Steel Concern  by  Jasmine Ng November 19, 2015  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/iron-ore-bludgeoned-to-record-low-in-asia-on-china-steel-concern


Steel Industry Peers Into Abyss as Output to Plunge  by Bloomberg News November 18, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/china-steel-output-to-plunge-23-million-tons-in-2016-cisa-says


`Bleak' Copper Seen Needing 17% Drop to Force Deeper Cuts by  Martin Ritchie November 19, 2015  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/copper-may-drop-to-3-800-in-2016-on-bleak-outlook-fcstone-says


China Wants Legally Binding Climate Agreement From Paris Talks by  Bloomberg News  November 19, 2015  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/china-wants-legally-binding-climate-agreement-from-paris-talks


U.K. to Shut Its Dirtiest Coal Power Plants Within a Decade by  Lars Paulsson November 18, 2015 The U.K. plans to close all coal plants that haven’t been upgraded with cleaning technology by 2025 as the government signaled an exit from the world’s most widely used power-plant fuel. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/u-k-to-shut-its-dirtiest-coal-power-plants-within-a-decade



13 November 2015: Reuters - rising inventories, OPEC sees glut shrinking, Bloomberg - U.S. Stocks Fall Amid Rate Concerns as Commodity Shares Tumble, China steel output drop and speeds up fiscal spend, commodities and commodity currency review; Brent Crude  44.06



OPEC sees oil surplus shrinking in 2016, but underlines current glut Nov 12, 2015 - OPEC said its oil output fell in October and forecast supply from rival producers next year would decline for the first time since 2007 as low prices prompt investment cuts, reducing a global supply glut. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/12/us-opec-oil-idUSKCN0T11BQ20151112
U.S. oil prices fall to over two-month lows on rising inventories Nov 12, 2015 - U.S. crude oil dipped further in early trading on Friday to over two-month lows as prices fall over 10 percent since the beginning of November. Read more at http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodities#It8v5DMpfjeAhAR3.99
U.S. Stocks Fall Amid Rate Concerns as Commodity Shares Tumble  by  Kate Garber, November 12, 2015 the stronger dollar and a persistent slump in demand from China sent the Bloomberg Commodity Index to the lowest since 1999. The recent weakness in commodity shares is a turnabout after energy and raw-materials helped drive a rebound from a summer correction and in October had their strongest month in four years http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-12/s-p-500-futures-are-little-changed-with-central-banks-in-focus


Steel Output Drop in China Is Highly Probable, Noble Group Says by  Jasmine Ng November 13, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-12/steel-output-drop-in-china-is-highly-probable-noble-group-says


China Speeds Up Fiscal Spending in October to Support Growth by  Bloomberg News  November 12, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-12/china-speeds-up-fiscal-spending-in-october-to-support-growth


Commodities: What’s Fallen the Most? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-11-12/commodities-what-s-fallen-the-most-


Why Are Commodity Currencies Taking a Plunge? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-11-12/why-are-commodity-currencies-taking-a-plunge-


Is China's Newest Skyscraper a Sign of Economic Doom? Sep 8 2015... What do New York's Empire State Building, Malaysia's Petronas Towers and Dubai's Burj Khalifa have in common? Each skyscraper opened as its country's once booming economy crashed! It's known as... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-09/is-china-s-newest-skyscraper-a-sign-of-economic-doom-



19 October 2015: Iran Urges OPEC to Cut Oil Output to Lift Prices to $70-$80, Brent Crude 49.69l; TPP awaits approval, UK welcomes Xi, China AIIB  has UK, Germany, Italy, France, Israel and other allies despite US plea


Saudi's China Oil Play Has No One Over a Barrel: David Fickling  by David Fickling October 19, 2015 — 11:57 AM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/saudi-s-china-oil-play-has-no-one-over-a-barrel-david-fickling

Iran Urges OPEC to Cut Oil Output to Lift Prices to $70-$80  by Anthony Dipaola , Golnar Motevalli Hashem Kalantari  October 19, 2015 — 4:31 PM HKT Iran's oil minister says 'no one is happy' with current prices. OPEC members to boost exports in drive to regain market sharehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/iran-urges-opec-to-cut-oil-output-to-lift-prices-to-70-80

China Misses Out From TPP Exclusion, PBOC Researcher Ma Says  by  Bloomberg News October 9, 2015 — 10:59 AM HKT China's economy would be 2.2 percent larger if it joined TPP. PBOC research chief economist Ma Jun comments in article http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-09/china-misses-out-from-tpp-exclusion-pboc-researcher-ma-says


TPP Awaits Approval; U.S. Moves to Atlantic Trade  October 8, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-10-08/u-s-moves-to-atlantic-trade-as-tpp-awaits-approval


Trans-Pacific Partnership Arrives as World Trade Growth Slows - The TPP lowers or wipes out tariffs on thousands of items.  by Simon Kennedy, Isabel Reynolds, Keiko Ujikane  October 9, 2015 — 4:14 AM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-08/a-mega-trade-deal


U.K. Throws Lavish Welcome for Xi in Hopes of 'Golden Era' in China Trade  by David Tweed  October 19, 2015 — 6:00 AM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-18/u-k-in-economic-kowtow-to-xi-seeks-golden-era-of-china-trade


China’s World Bank - Adding Muscle With Infrastructure Lending By Enda Curran | Updated Sept 24, 2015 3:52 PM EDT  Since the end of World War II, the U.S., Western Europe and Japan have controlled much of the business of loaning money to poor countries to help them build public works and strengthen weak economies. These loans, made through the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank, often came with demands for strict economic, ethical and environmental behavior. Now there’s a new player: China. It’s creating the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — the first major multilateral development bank in a generation — to offer loans for transportation, energy and communications projects. The U.S. tried to talk its allies out of joining the AIIB, questioning its governance and concern for the environment and human rights. The U.K. ignored Washington’s pleas and signed up, followed by Germany, Italy, France, Israel and other allies that decided to join forces with China. The Situation. Since the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was announced in October 2013, 57 countries have been accepted by China as founding members. They want to boost links with China and to do deals in its once-protected currency, the yuan. China, the world’s second-largest economy, has long been frustrated that it has only a small say in decisions by global financial institutions. The AIIB doesn’t plan to make loans before the end of this year and hasn’t announced specific projects, though it’s expected to invest in rebuilding the centuries-old Silk Road routes that linked China to Europe with highways, rail lines and port facilities. The Asian Development Bank estimates the region will require $8 trillion in new infrastructure by 2020. http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/chinas-world-bank

11 October 2015: Cautious view on recent commodity rebound, large countries outside of TPP trade deal have sufficient scale to offset harm, China consumers care most about food safety and environmental pollution, Brent Crude 52.65


Commodities Rebound but Investors Remain Wary - Moves boost emerging-market nations, as broader picture for developing countries is uncertain By Ira Iosebashvili and  Chiara Albanese  Updated Oct. 9, 2015 7:06 p.m. ET ; A commodity-sector rebound this week lifted raw-material prices, mining-company shares and the currencies of developing nations, the latest sign of the whipsaw trading that has racked markets this year. Behind the past week’s recovery: tentative signs that China’s economy may be stabilizing after a decline in its growth rate, which could bolster demand for commodities. Many investors also cited a belief that ultralow interest rates will persist longer in the U.S., reducing further dollar appreciation. That in turn eases... http://www.wsj.com/articles/commodity-related-assets-rebound-from-brutal-selloff-1444408081


Citigroup’s Morse Says Commodities Drop Hasn’t Hit Bottom by  Cristiane Lucchesi  October 10, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-10/citigroup-s-morse-says-commodities-drop-hasn-t-hit-bottom-yet


In Brazil, the Dangerous Game of Bottom Fishing Is Under Way by Denyse Godoy, Paula Sambo  and Matthew Malinowski empty text October 10, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-09/in-brazil-trying-to-pinpoint-the-end-for-both-rousseff-and-rout


Goldman Sachs: This Oil Rally Is Not Going to Last - Nothing has really changed. by Luke Kawa  October 9, 2015  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-09/goldman-sachs-this-oil-rally-is-not-going-to-last


Emerging Currencies Post Biggest Weekly Gain Since 1998 on Fed  by Lyubov Pronina and Lilian Karunungan   October 9, 2015   Indonesian rupiah, Russian ruble, Malaysian ringgit lead gains. Pimco, ANZ see renewed pressure from yuan devaluation, dollar...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-09/emerging-currencies-set-for-best-week-since-2009-on-fed-outlook


Rupiah and Ringgit Have Best Weekly Gains in More Than a Decade  by Y-Sing Liau  and Yudith Ho  October 9, 2015, Fed speculation, rising share and commodity prices drive rally. Rebound isn't supported by fundamentals: Standard Chartered... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-09/rupiah-poised-to-halve-yearly-decline-this-week-as-funds-return



China news


China Plans Charging Stations for 5 Million Plug-in Cars by 2020 by   Bloomberg News  October 9, 2015 — 11:01 AM HKT... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-09/china-plans-charging-stations-for-5-million-plug-in-cars-by-2020


China’s Heft Gives It Ammunition Against the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal - Sheer scale and demand at home to help offset harm from staying outside trade pact By Brian Spegele  Oct. 9, 2015 5:10 a.m. ET ; BEIJING—China’s huge domestic market, deep supply chain and push to create more consumers at home gives it heft to dispel challenges of the new Pacific trade pact that it isn’t a party to. On the surface, China appears a clear loser by its exclusion from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which aims to deepen economic ties and lower or eliminate tariffs in the 12-member bloc led by the U.S. and Japan. But company executives and... http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-heft-gives-it-ammunition-against-tpp-1444381816


The Tianjin Explosions: A Signal for Reform - Commentary By Stanley Lubman Sep 7, 2015; As of this date, 161 deaths have been reported and thousands of residents displaced in Tianjin. 23 people have been detained: 11 municipal officials and port executives accused of negligence and abuse of power, and 12 people including top executives of Ruihai. There appears to have been a pattern of wholesale disregard of safety regulations that could have limited the dangers. Moreover, for years before Ruihai began to plan its facilities, local scholars had documented the dangers posed by storage of dangerous materials close to residential neighborhoods. They were unable to generate concern among regulatory officials. Ruihai began storing chemicals without obtaining a license. The company falsely stated that the location of the warehouses complied with national safety regulations, which would have required them to be situated further from residences and a highway. It then stored different volatile materials haphazardly instead of separately, “at safe distances, and in smaller quantities as recommended in the industry.” The Chinese government has previously acknowledged the need for more efficient regulation of hazardous chemicals at local levels — but local governments have been reluctant to comply, with little consequence. The head of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology acknowledged recently that work on plans to relocate or upgrade almost 1,000 chemical plants was slowed because the Ministry’s work “is not actively supported locally in the past year.” (emphasis added).... According to a March 2015 China Youth Daily poll of Chinese citizens, more than 77 percent ranked food safety as “the most important quality of life issue,” with environmental pollution close behind. Early last month the Supreme People’s Procuratorate announced that it has begun a two-year campaign targeting corrupt officials involved in food-safety crimes. In addition, the influence of major oil and coal companies in weakening the “war on pollution” has been well documented. http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2015/09/07/the-tianjin-explosions-a-signal-for-reform/



29 September 2015:  Commodities regression back to the 1990s, Saudi royal calls for regime change, Glencore jitters, Congress hearings led banks to scale back before commodities plunge, JBS making killing on sinking BRL, Brent Crude 48.22


U.S. Stock-Index Futures Pare Gains Along With Commodity Prices  by  Alan Soughley and Camila Russo September 29, 2015 — 3:51 PM HKTUpdated on September 29, 2015 — 9:22 PM HKT

 - commodities index back to the 1990s chart

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/u-s-stock-index-futures-little-changed-after-erasing-decline 



The 10-Point. Gerard Baker  Editor in Chief The Wall Street Journal; Mine Collapse   -  Plunging commodity prices, sparked by an economic slowdown in China, are causing havoc for one of the world’s biggest and most famously aggressive mining and trading companies. A recent collapse in the shares of Glencore is casting a long shadow on the unique corporate structure engineered by its chief executive, even though he got a little relief this morning with a small recovery in the stock price. Global stocks were showing signs of steadying earlier today after a sharp selloff in Asia. Meanwhile, the downturn in commodities is causing other casualties. Royal Dutch Shell will become the latest big oil company to abandon the riches under the northern seas in the face of stubbornly low crude prices. The oil giant is quitting its $7 billion Arctic campaign after drilling just one well with disappointing results.


Saudi royal calls for regime change in Riyadh - Plea by grandson of state’s founder comes as falling oil prices, war in Yemen and loss of faith in authority buffet leadership of King Salman by Hugh Miles in Cairo Monday 28 September 2015 16.14 BST ; Plea by grandson of state’s founder comes as falling oil prices, war in Yemen and loss of faith in authority buffet leadership of King Salman  http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/28/saudi-royal-calls-regime-change-letters-leadership-king-salman


One Company Is Making a Killing on Brazil's Sinking Real by  Gerson Freitas Jr September 29, 2015 — 10:00 AM HKTUpdated on September 29, 2015 — 5:11 PM HKT;  Global beef king now makes more money on derivatives than meat. Strategy costs 4 billion reais a year, twice JBS's 2014 profit; Tucked away in an industrial neighborhood in Sao Paulo, six members of JBS SA’s sprawling meatpacking empire are making a fortune on the collapse in Brazil’s currency. The group may only account for 0.003 percent of JBS’s 215,000-strong workforce, but it’s on track this year to generate more profit than the beef, poultry and pork operations combined.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/the-big-bold-currency-trade-making-billions-for-brazil-s-jbs


Glencore Shares Soar After Company Says It's Financially Robust by  Jesse Riseborough  September 29, 2015 — 3:04 PM HKTUpdated on September 29, 2015 — 9:27 PM HKT  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/glencore-shares-rise-in-london-trading-day-after-record-slump

Take Glencore Private If Market Unfair, Citi Says With `Buy' by Jasmine Ng September 29, 2015 — 1:26 PM HKTUpdated on September 29, 2015 — 5:53 PM HKT  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/take-glencore-private-if-market-unfair-citi-says-with-buy-call
Glencore could be the resource sector's Lehman Brothers By business editor Ian Verrender Updated about 9 hours ago  http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-29/glencore-could-be-the-resource-sector-lehman-brothers/6812682?section=business
Glencore shares obliterated after analysts warn they could be worthless - The stock collapsed by 30pc in afternoon trading, wiping more than £2bn off the value of the company  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11895789/Glencore-shares-obliterated-after-analysts-warn-they-could-be-worthless.html

With Glencore, commodity rout beginning to look like a crisis September 29, 2015 - 1:41PM  by Bradley Olson http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/with-glencore-commodity-rout-beginning-to-look-like-a-crisis-20150929-gjx6gi.html#ixzz3n8QDtJTI


How Congress Helped Save Goldman Sachs From Itself by  Michael J Moore  September 29, 2015 — 9:24 AM HKT; Hearings led banks to scale back before commodities plunge. `It's a dangerous business,' Goldman's Viniar said in 2007. In October 2011, things were looking bleak at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s commodities business. Revenue was down, competition was up, employee attrition was at an all-time high and new regulations were on the horizon. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/how-congress-helped-save-goldman-sachs-from-glencore-envy

 

15 September 2015: WSJ - global trade slump, oil producers financial reckoning, Glencore new low, commodity day traders; Crude Oil (Brent) 46.62

Worries Rise Over Global Trade Slump - Growth in exports and imports is lagging far behind the pace during past expansions, threatening productivity and living standards By William Mauldin  Updated Sept. 14, 2015 10:06 p.m. ET  A sharp drop in global trade growth this year is underscoring a disturbing legacy of the financial crisis: Exports and imports of goods are lagging far behind their pace of past expansions, threatening future productivity and living standards. For the third year in a row, the rate of growth in global trade is set to trail the already sluggish expansion of the world economy, according to data from the World Trade Organization and... http://www.wsj.com/articles/worries-rise-over-global-trade-slump-1442251590?mod=djem10point

Oil Patch Braces for Financial Reckoning - Smaller producers are girding for cuts to credit lines, as crude prices show little sign of rebounding  By Daniel Gilbert, Erin Ailworth and Alison Sider  Sept. 14, 2015 7:50 p.m. ET  http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-patch-braces-for-financial-reckoning-1442274651?mod=djem10point


Glencore Shares Hit New Low Since Debt-Reduction Plan Announced - Collapse in commodities prices, concerns about debt push stock down  By Alex MacDonald and Josie Cox  Updated Sept. 15, 2015 9:32 a.m. ET  LONDON—Glencore PLC shares hit a new low Tuesday, reversing last week’s gains as coal prices fell and investors became fretful about the company’s debt-rescue plan. Shares in the Swiss commodities trader and producer fell nearly 8% to an intraday low of 118 pence before paring back some of the losses to 123 pence by midafternoon European trade, still down more than 3%. The rest of the U.K. mining sector also fell, with the FTSE 350... http://www.wsj.com/articles/glencore-shares-hit-new-low-after-announcing-debt-rescue-plan-1442320240


Day Traders Struggle Amid Commodities Rout - Volatility both attracts traders and makes it far more difficult to make money By Ese Erheriene  Sept. 14, 2015 6:49 a.m. ET; While day trading is largely associated with equity markets, these investors also began moving into commodities after 2006 when some Chicago-based brokerages began offering commodities options to retail traders. There they believe they can profit from the sector’s extreme volatility and predict supply and demand for resources, like oil and gold, that they are familiar with...Oil in particular has attracted such investors....Losses from the financial crisis in 2008 wiped out many day-traders, but academics say their numbers have been building again, particularly in developing countries like Russia and China. Mr. MacDonald-Korth believes that private individuals, including day-traders, account for 80% of trading in China, for instance. The extreme volatility of recent months has encouraged day-traders, academics and traders say. Since March, London-based Amplify Trading has had a five-month waiting list for the program that it runs to train day traders. Last month, the training company arranged an open evening for 20 prospective traders, but 60 people showed up.... http://www.wsj.com/articles/day-traders-struggle-amid-commodities-route-1442227791?&mod=djem10point

13 September 2015: Oil Extends Weekly Drop: How Low Can Prices Go?  El-Erian  and other views. Dollar enters pivotal week. What should the Fed do next? Crude Oil (Brent) 48.14


Oil Extends Weekly Drop: How Low Can Prices Go? 3:16 AM HKT  September 12, 2015 Bloomberg's Alix Steel updates the latest commodities markets news. She reports on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-11/oil-extends-weekly-drop-how-low-can-prices-go-


El-Erian: The Oil Market Is Unhinged  September 12, 2015 Bloomberg View Columnist Mohamed El-Erian discusses the price of oil. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets." His opinions are his own. (Source: Bloomberg)   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-11/el-erian-oil-market-fundamentally-unhinged


Is Goldman's $20 Oil Forecast Real or Just a Scenario? 2:31 AM HKT  September 12, 2015   Societe Generale Head of Commodities Research Michael Haigh discusses the price of oil. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-11/is-goldman-s-20-oil-forecast-real-or-just-a-scenario-


One Oil Chart, Two Views  September 12, 2015  Bloomberg's Alix Steel and Joe Weisenthal take a look at the outlook for oil prices. They speak on "What'd You Miss?" (Source: Bloomberg)  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-11/one-oil-chart-two-views


Canadian Stocks Slump as Oil Price Slides on Goldman Outlook  by Dani Burger and Eric Lam   September 12, 2015 — 1:01 AM HKTUpdated on September 12, 2015 — 4:50 AM HKT Benchmark index ends lower for week, erasing earlier gain. Baytex Energy and Bonavista Energy lead slump in oil companies http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/canadian-stocks-slump-as-oil-price-slides-on-goldman-outlook


Dollar Enters Pivotal Week With Crisis-Period Trades Uwinding by Jennifer Surane September 12, 2015 — 12:01 PM HKT Commodity currencies staged the steepest gains this week Dollar weakens as futures suggest traders betting Fed on hold Currency traders are putting the frenzy of August behind them, signaling that global markets have calmed as Federal Reserve policy makers consider raising interest rates for the first time since 2006. As the final countdown before the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 meeting begins, traders are exiting positions taken on during last month’s market rout. Commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and South African rand, among the biggest losers in the wake of China’s Aug. 11 yuan devaluation, staged some of the steepest gains this week. The yen, a haven during the August tumult, posted the deepest weekly loss among major currencies....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-12/dollar-enters-pivotal-week-with-crisis-period-trades-uwinding


Kenneth Rogoff Slams One of the Most Popular Theories for What the Fed Should Do Next - The Fed should wait for proof on inflation. by Luke Kawa September 12, 2015 — 1:20 AM HKT' Market participants have been coalescing around the view that the Federal Reserve's liftoff from near-zero interest rates will be a "one and done" affair. That is, market metrics suggest that monetary policymakers will likely hike rates once, then wait a considerable time to assess how financial markets and the real economy digest this less stimulative stance. But in an appearance on Bloomberg Surveillance, Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor of economics and public policy, questioned the rationale of this view. "What is the logic of doing it, also?" he said in response to a question on the merits of a rate hike followed by a long pause. "It's very asymmetric. If we see inflation, they can start raising rates, and if you go in the wrong direction, it's harder to do something about it." Since the end of the Great Recession, other centra  banks, notably Sweden's Riksbank and the European Central Bank, were forced to backtrack on rate hikes. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/kenneth-rogoff-slams-one-of-the-most-popular-theories-for-what-the-fed-should-do-next




11 September 2015: IEA forecasts oil supply outside OPEC to fall, Goldman says oil could drop toward $20; Crude Oil (Brent) 48.00


Oil Could Drop as Low as $20, Goldman Says by Ben Sharples September 11, 2015 — 1:45 PM HKTUpdated on September 11, 2015 — 4:41 PM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/-20-oil-possible-for-goldman-as-forecasts-cut-on-growing-glut


Oil Supply Outside OPEC to Fall Most Since 1992, IEA Forecasts by  Grant Smith  September 11, 2015 — 4:00 PM HKThttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/oil-supply-outside-opec-to-fall-most-since-1992-iea-forecasts


ft.com  > indepth  >  The New Oil Orderhttp://www.ft.com/intl/indepth/new-oil-order


ft.com  > indepth  >   China tremorshttp://www.ft.com/intl/indepth/china-tremors

22 August 2015: No End in Sight for Oil Glut? Turmoil in Financial Markets Worsens on China Manufacturing Data. Crude Oil (Brent) 45.46


No End in Sight for Oil Glut - Crude-price plunge is deepening, yet producers keep pumping By Russell Gold  Aug. 20, 2015 7:35 p.m. ET  When oil prices started to edge down a year ago, most energy mavens thought the drop would be small and short-lived.  Instead, the price of crude has plunged by almost 60% from its 2014 peak—and suddenly looks likely to stay low for months and maybe years to come. The reason: In the global battle for market share, nobody has backed down. Nobody has even blinked. Not Saudi Arabia, not the U.S., and not even troubled producers from... http://www.wsj.com/articles/no-end-in-sight-for-oil-glut-1440113703?mod=djem10point


U.S. Oil Prices Hit Fresh Six-Year Low, Dipping Below $40 a Barrel; http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-fall-in-asia-after-weak-chinese-manufacturing-data-1440132261?tesla=y


Turmoil in Financial Markets Worsens on China Manufacturing Data  by  Stephen Kirkland and Joseph Ciolli  August 21, 2015 — 6:54 AM HKTUpdated on August 21, 2015 — 11:18 PM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-20/asian-futures-fall-amid-u-s-stock-selloff-as-oil-mired-in-slump


These Charts Show How Hard China Has Hit Global Markets - The damage is everywhere by  Trista Kelley and Camila Russo  August 22, 2015 — 1:41 AM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-21/these-charts-show-how-hard-china-has-hit-global-markets


How Much Longer Can Saudi Arabia's Economy Hold Out Against Cheap Oil? Saudi Arabia got lucky when the oil price fell in 1998. What about now? by  Vivian Nereim and Donna Abu-Nasr  August 21, 2015 — 12:01 PM HKThttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-21/how-much-longer-can-saudi-arabia-s-economy-hold-out-against-cheap-oil-


Dow Plunges 531 Points in Global Selloff;... The Dow industrials lost 530.94 points, or 3.1%, to close at 16459.75, putting it in correction territory, as defined by a 10% decline from a recent high. ... http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-point-to-more-losses-1440159610?tesla=y


Dollar Plunges on Global Growth Worries, U.S. Rates Uncertainty; http://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-plunges-on-concerns-for-global-growth-u-s-interest-rates-1440178286?tesla=y



14 August 2015: Who's going colder on renewable energy


Canada is not the first country where a feed-in tariff (Fit) scheme has been ended. The UK, which has stopped supporting onshore wind and solar energy, in 2011 withdrew tax relief from some Fits, leading a number of the larger ones to close.http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/10/canadians-pull-the-plug-on-renewable-energy-scheme





14 August 2015: Yuan slide, oil price fall in peak season for oil, $58 Brent outlook in survey, most pessimistic points to cash cost of production, Crude Oil (Brent) 49.19


Yuan Slide Takes Toll on Chinese Firms - Dollar borrowers suffer $11 billion in currency-exchange loss over three days   By  Fiona Law  Updated Aug. 13, 2015 7:02 p.m. ET The yuan’s surprise fall is likely to saddle some Chinese companies with billions of dollars in foreign-exchange losses, just when borrowers are grappling with towering debt burdens and slowing growth at home.
Ultralow global interest rates and tight lending in domestic markets drove many Chinese firms to look abroad to borrow more cheaply.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/yuan-slide-takes-toll-on-chinese-firms-1439489280?mod=djem10point


Crude Prices Seen Staying Below $70 a Barrel Over The Next Year - Survey of 10 banks suggests oil oversupply will continue and weigh on prices  By Georgi Kantchev  Aug. 13, 2015 6:14 a.m. ET  As U.S. crude prices hit a six-year low Thursday, a survey of 10 investment banks by The Wall Street Journal showed increasing pessimism about the outlook for oil. The average forecast of 10 banks surveyed this month was for oil prices to stay below $70 a barrel until late next year. They expect Brent crude, the international price benchmark, to average $58 a barrel this year, down from the forecast of $62 a barrel in May’s survey. http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-prices-seen-staying-below-70-a-barrel-over-the-next-year-1439460867


$20 Oil? Three Things We Learned This Week - Everyone wanted to read about oil, the yuan and Google.  August 15, 2015 — 12:05 AM HKT 1) Oil As crude tumbles in its worst summer ever, experts are lining up to forecast exactly how low it will go. Among the lowest so far is $10 to $20 a barrel, which came from Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling Co., who spoke in a Bloomberg Television interview on Friday. Because fixed costs are already spent, drillers in a “price war” will keep pumping as long as prices are above the cash costs of production... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-14/-20-oil-three-things-we-learned-this-week


Oil's Worst-Ever Summer Signals Price Rout Is Nowhere Near Done by Grant Smith  August 14, 2015 — 6:29 PM HKTUpdated on August 14, 2015 — 8:20 PM HKT  If crude’s slump back to a six-year low looks bad, it’s even worse when you reflect that summer is supposed to be peak season for oil. U.S. crude futures have lost 30 percent since the start of June...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-14/oil-s-worst-ever-summer-signals-price-rout-is-nowhere-near-done


Oman’s Daily Oil Output Tops 1 Million Barrels for First Time  by  Maher Chmaytelli  August 15, 2015 — 6:10 PM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-15/oman-s-daily-oil-output-tops-1-million-barrels-for-first-time


U.S. Eases 40-Year Crude Export Ban by Allowing Mexico Swap  by Brian Wingfield and Dan Murtaugh August 15, 2015 — 1:00 AM HKTUpdated on August 15, 2015 — 12:01 PM HKT  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-14/obama-said-to-approve-crude-oil-exports-to-mexico-easing-ban



OPEC Supply Reaches 3-Year High as Iran Pumps Most Since ’12 by  Grant Smith  August 11, 2015 — 6:30 PM HKTUpdated on August 12, 2015 — 12:12 AM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/opec-output-reaches-3-year-high-as-iran-pumps-most-since-2012



11 August 2015: China's Devaluation of Yuan Jolts Global Markets  - WSJ, Crude Oil (Brent) 48.95 c 11:02AM EDT


China's Devaluation of Yuan Jolts Global Markets - China's devaluation of its currency jolted global markets, hitting stocks and commodities and boosting government bonds. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% in early trade. The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index was down 1.5% early afternoon. Most Asian bourses fell and currencies sank. Oil prices fell sharply, while demand for haven assets pushed down bond yields in the U.S. and Europe, as investors worried that Beijing's move signaled growth concerns over the world's second-largest economy. http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-fall-after-yuan-move-1439278957?mod=djemalertMARKET


Mining Stocks Are Taking a Beating by  Javier Blas and Eddie Van Der Walt  August 11, 2015 — 10:09 PM HKTUpdated on August 11, 2015 — 10:43 PM HKT  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/glencore-leads-mining-slump-as-metals-tumble-on-yuan-devaluation



10 August 2015: Move to Allow U.S. Oil Exports Accelerates; Crude Oil (Brent) 48.46

Move to Allow U.S. Oil Exports Accelerates - Big voices in the oil industry and Congress now support a move that would have been unthinkable not long ago: opening the U.S. oil industry to exports By  Amy Harder  Aug. 9, 2015 2:12 p.m. ET; Big voices in the oil industry and Congress now support a move that would have been unthinkable not long ago: opening the U.S. oil industry to exports. The U.S. has long pushed for liberalized trade, with U.S.-produced crude being the biggest exception since the shock of the 1973 Arab oil embargo led Congress to ban oil exports under nearly all circumstances. The only other U.S. products banned under the same regulations are a type...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/move-to-allow-u-s-oil-exports-accelerates-1439143950?mod=trending_now_1; WSJ 10 points writes: 27% The share of U.S. petroleum from foreign sources—its lowest level since 1985. Big voices in the oil industry and Congress now support a move that would have been unthinkable not long ago: opening the U.S. oil industry to exports.

Dormant Saudi Bond Market Stirs as Oil Kingdom Seeks $27 Billion by  Daria Solovieva and Deema Almashabi  August 10, 2015 — 4:01 AM HKTUpdated on August 10, 2015 — 3:00 PM HKT

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-09/dormant-saudi-bond-market-stirs-as-oil-kingdom-seeks-27-billion

For Norway, Oil at $50 Is Worse Than the Global Financial Crisis Scandinavia's richest nation is facing a mess  by  Saleha Mohsin  August 10, 2015 — 1:19 PM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/for-norway-oil-at-50-is-worse-than-the-global-financial-crisis


S&P 500 Flouts History in Break With Bonds That Often Ends Badly  by  Lu Wang  August 10, 2015 — 12:00 PM HKT

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/s-p-500-flouts-history-in-break-with-bonds-that-often-ends-badly


5 August 2015: The oil price war is set to get vicious - Money Morning, California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It,Obama’s Climate Push Sets Up Battle Reminiscent of Obamacare; Crude Oil (Brent) 50.14


The Economist explains: The global addiction to energy subsidies  Jul 26th 2015, 23:50 by E.L

ENERGY prices have been falling for a year. Over the last month that trend has accelerated. On July 24th, the price of a barrel of oil in America reached a low of $48. In spite of this, governments are still splurging on subsidies to prop up production. Fossil fuels are reaping support of $550 billion annually, according the International Energy Agency (IEA), an organisation that represents oil- and gas-consuming countries, more than four times those given for renewable energy. The International Monetary Fund’s estimates are substantially higher. It said in May that countries will spend $5.3 trillion subsiding oil, gas and coal in 2015, versus $2 trillion in 2011. That is equivalent to 6.5% of global GDP, and is more than what governments across the world spend on healthcare. At a time of low energy prices, high government debt and rising concern over emissions there is scant justification for such spending. So why is the world addicted to energy subsidies?
Read more at http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-19#3ovTKPZwWYBcLF0k.99

California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It  - Mary Nichols, the California regulator who showed the world how to clean up smog, is pushing for all cars to be electric.  by John Lippert August 3, 2015 — 12:01 PM HKT

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-03/california-regulator-mary-nichols-may-transform-the-auto-industry?cmpid=BBD080315_BIZ

Obama’s Climate Push Sets Up Battle Reminiscent of Obamacare  Aug 4, 2015 2:28 AM WST

President Barack Obama unveiled a landmark set of regulations to combat climate change in a plan that requires states to cut emissions from power plants, setting up a red-state, blue-state battle reminiscent of Obamacare...http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-03/obama-sets-up-fight-with-states-with-power-plant-emissions-rule?cmpid=BBD080315_BIZ

Gulf Arab States Voice Support for Iran Nuclear Deal - WSJ http://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-arab-states-voice-support-for-iran-nuclear-deal-1438618887?mod=djem10point


The oil price war is set to get vicious 14 July, 2015 by Money Morning; Here’s an interesting statistic.  Saudi Arabia is pumping more crude oil than ever before.  In June, it produced 10.6 million barrels a day. That’s the highest on record, and up 200,000 barrels compared to May.  Why is it pumping out oil like there’s no tomorrow?... Saudi Arabia’s record oil output can be explained by one little magic word: competition.Oil cartel Opec got used to the feeling of having the world in the palm of its hands over the past decade or so. Oil prices soared. Everyone said that $100 a barrel was the new norm. It’d never get cheaper than that again. We’d just have to suck it up. The thing is, high oil prices made it worth everyone’s while to start looking for other sources of the stuff. And that’s when ‘fracking’ really took off in the US. At first, everyone dismissed it as overhyped. Then, as the natural gas flowed freely, the argument was that fracking might work for gas, but it wouldn’t change the oil market.Of course, it did. US crude oil output is now up to around 9.7 million barrels a day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. It’s hard to emphasise how astonishing this is. If someone had told you in 2000 that the US was less than two decades away from being as big an oil producer as Saudi Arabia, you’d have laughed them out of town. (It’s events like this that make me take the ‘secular stagnation’ argument with a hefty pinch of salt. Secular stagnation is just the latest ‘new paradigm’ view designed to justify our odd financial environment. It also provides intellectual cover for central banks to go on experimenting with monetary policy.)....

Anyway, getting back to the point in hand. I’ve mentioned this before, but think of this being like supermarket price wars.  If you own a big shop, earning decent profit margins from a captive audience, and a smaller rival opens up and starts to undercut you, what do you do? Do you keep your own prices high, and let him continue to steal market share?  No chance. You slash prices as low as possible, sit back on your copious cash reserves, and wait for the other guy to go out of business.  That’s what Saudi Arabia’s doing. It doesn’t cost much for it to increase production, so it pumps more oil. The oil price crashes, and US oil producers – who require higher prices – either stop drilling or go out of business.  There’s also the small matter of Iran re-entering the oil market now that a deal seems to have been agreed to relax sanctions. As David Sheppard puts it in the FT, Saudi Arabia “is unlikely to want to cede market share or see its regional rival enjoy a higher price.”



31 July 2015: How Cheap Oil Is Fueling a Surge In New Factories (chemical plants), Roubini on factors weighing on commodities, China stocks crash - Bloomberg, Shell and Centrica cut jobs, Iran nuclear deal; Crude Oil (Brent) 53.12 c 10:54PM EDT


How Cheap Oil Is Fueling a Surge In New Factories by Vince Golle July 31, 2015 — 2:13 AM HKT; The construction of chemical plants is making up for a slowdown in oil-well drilling

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/how-cheap-oil-is-fueling-a-surge-in-new-factories

Roubini: Combination of Factors Weighing on Commodities 48:54 -  Roubini Global Economics Chairman Nouriel Roubini talks about the factors affecting commodity prices and the reduced pricing power of OPEC. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-07-30/roubini-combination-of-factors-weighing-on-commodities

Shell and Centrica cut 12,000 jobs http://gu.com/p/4b55e?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail

China’s Stocks Extend Slump in Worst Monthly Decline Since 2009  by Kyoungwha Kim July 31, 2015 — 9:24 AM HKTUpdated on July 31, 2015 — 11:25 AM HKT China’s stocks fell, with the benchmark index heading for its worst monthly drop in almost six years, as the government struggles to rekindle investor interest amid a $3.5 trillion rout. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.9 percent to 3,672.45 at 11:24 a.m. local time. The gauge has tumbled 14 percent this month, the biggest loss among 93 global benchmark gauges tracked by Bloomberg, as margin traders cashed out and new equity-account openings tumbled amid concern valuations are unsustainable. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-31/china-s-stock-futures-drop-as-shanghai-heads-for-steep-july-loss

As China Stocks Crash, This Top-Ranked Fund Steps In to Buy  July 31, 2015 — 9:00 AM HKTUpdated on July 31, 2015 — 10:28 AM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-31/when-chinese-stocks-crash-this-top-ranked-fund-steps-in-to-buy

The Iran Nuclear Deal – A Simple Guide By WILLIAM J. BROAD and SERGIO PEÇANHA UPDATED July 14, 2015
Negotiators reached a historic accord on Tuesday to limit Tehran’s nuclear ability in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. Here is a guide to the Iran nuclear deal.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/03/31/world/middleeast/simple-guide-nuclear-talks-iran-us.html?_r=0

 

21 July 2015: Bloomberg - Wall Street Lenders Growing Impatient With U.S. Shale Revolution,  Gold Leads Commodities ‘Mess’ That Has Many Investors Smarting, Oil Guru Who Called 2014 Slump Sees Return to $100 Crude by 2020; Crude Oil (Brent)  56.51


Wall Street Lenders Growing Impatient With U.S. Shale Revolution  by Asjylyn Loder, Bradley Olsonand Dawn Kopecki July 21, 2015 — 7:01 AM HKT Halcon Resources Corp. almost ran into trouble with its banks in June 2013. And again in March 2014. And in February 2015. Each time, the shale driller came close to violating debt limits set by its lenders, endangering a credit line that provided as much as $1.05 billion in much-needed cash. Each time, Halcon’s banks, led by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., loosened their restrictions, allowing Halcon to keep borrowing.

That kind of patience may be coming to an end. Bank regulators have issued warnings on the risks involved in lending to U.S. drillers, threatening a cash crunch in an industry that’s more dependent than ever on other people’s money. Wall Street has been one of the biggest allies of the shale revolution, bankrolling thousands of wells from Texas to North Dakota. The question is how that will change with oil prices down by half since last year to about $50 a barrel. "Lenders in general are increasing pressure on oil companies either to raise more equity or do some sort of transaction to pay down their credit lines and free up extra cash,” said Jimmy Vallee, a partner in the energy mergers and acquisitions practice at law firm Paul Hastings LLP in Houston.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-20/wall-street-lenders-growing-impatient-with-u-s-shale-revolution

Gold Leads Commodities ‘Mess’ That Has Many Investors Smarting  by Isaac Arnsdorf July 21, 2015 — 7:00 AM HKTUpdated on July 21, 2015 — 10:17 AM HKT  Pity the commodity investor. The Bloomberg Commodities Index is holding losses after dropping Monday to a 13-year low, weaker than after the banking meltdown of 2008 and the euro-zone crisis of 2012. From oil to copper to sugar, little has escaped the rout in the year’s worst-performing asset class. “Commodities are a mess,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, in a telephone interview. “We are not looking to add to positions.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-20/gold-leads-commodities-mess-that-has-many-investors-smarting

Oil Guru Who Called 2014 Slump Sees Return to $100 Crude by 2020  by Javier Blasand Grant Smith July 20, 2015 — 11:20 PM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-20/oil-guru-who-called-2014-slump-sees-return-to-100-crude-by-2020

 

16 July 2015: WSJ - Resurgent Dollar Shakes Off Slump - Janet Yellen’s rate-increase remarks jolt greenback higher, Investors Get Caught in Oil’s Slippery Wake - Value of shares in many energy firms sold this year in follow-on offerings has declined, Crude Oil (Brent)  57.69


Resurgent Dollar Shakes Off Slump - Janet Yellen’s rate-increase remarks jolt greenback higher By Ira Iosebashvili And  James Ramage   July 15, 2015 6:31 p.m. ET  Four months ago, a roaring rally in the dollar sputtered out. Now it is revving back up. The greenback is close to regaining all the ground it has lost since March, when it hit a 12-year high. Driving the broad gains against other currencies is growing confidence that the U.S. economy has picked up enough speed following a first-quarter slump to warrant the first interest-rate increase in nearly a decade. Higher rates tend to make a...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/resurgent-dollar-shakes-off-slump-1436999494?mod=djem10point

Investors Get Caught in Oil’s Slippery Wake - Value of shares in many energy firms sold this year in follow-on offerings has declined By Ryan Dezember And Corrie Driebusch  July 15, 2015 7:27 p.m. ET  Falling oil prices are hitting investors who bought energy shares this year. The value of shares sold by U.S. and Canadian exploration-and-production companies this year in 47 follow-on offerings sit $1.41 billion shy of the $15.87 billion investors paid for them, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Dealogic data. The pullback “has really taken the Street by surprise,” said William Herbert, co-head of securities at... http://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-get-caught-in-oils-slippery-wake-1437002846?mod=djem10point



14 July 2015: Why Saudi Arabia is pumping record crude - Bloomberg video, The Latest Sign That Coal Is Getting Killed - Bloomberg; Crude Oil (Brent), 57.36


Why Saudi Arabia is pumping record crude - Bloomberg video

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-07-13/why-saudi-arabia-is-pumping-record-crude

The Latest Sign That Coal Is Getting Killed, Coal is a sick dragon, and the bond market wields a heavy sword  by Tom Randall July 13, 2015 — 8:00 PM HKT; Coal is having a hard time lately. U.S. power plants are switching to natural gas, environmental restrictions are kicking in, and the industry is being derided as the world's No. 1 climate criminal. Prices have crashed, sure, but for a real sense of coal's diminishing prospects, check out what's happening in the bond market.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/the-latest-sign-that-coal-is-getting-killed?cmpid=BBD071315_BIZ



 

9 July 2015: Oil Rout Seen Ending as Demand Trumps China’s Market Crash  - Bloomberg, Crude Oil (Brent) 57.85


Oil Rout Seen Ending as Demand Trumps China’s Market Crash  by Grant Smith July 8, 2015 — 9:42 PM HKTUpdated on July 9, 2015 — 12:37 PM HKT il’s biggest slump in four years will lose momentum because the plunge in Chinese equities and Greece’s economic crisis won’t dent global demand, according to Morgan Stanley, UBS Group AG and Societe Generale SA. Crude is set for a “modest recovery” after declining 13 percent in the five sessions through Wednesday, Morgan Stanley estimates, while demand will push prices up by year-end, according to hedge fund manager Andrew J. Hall. Any nuclear deal with Iran won’t quickly revive the OPEC member’s crude exports, so wouldn’t immediately weigh on prices, Societe Generale said....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/oil-rout-seen-ending-as-demand-trumps-china-s-stock-market-crash

CORRECT: China’s Stocks Cap Biggest Gain Since 2009 July 9, 2015 — 9:29 AM HKT Updated on July 9, 2015 — 3:08 PM HKT; China’s benchmark stock index capped the biggest gain since 2009 in volatile trading as the government battled to restore investor confidence in a market that lost $3.9 trillion in less than a month. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-09/shanghai-stocks-set-to-open-lower-as-50-of-market-now-halted

 

8 July 2015: China stock market rout spreads to other financial markets, Refracking Is the New Fracking - Bloomberg; Crude Oil (Brent)  56.42


Refracking Is the New Fracking by Dan Murtaugh, Lynn Doanand Bradley Olson  July 7, 2015 — 7:05 AM HKTUpdated on July 7, 2015 — 9:31 PM HKT; The technique itself is nothing new. Oil crews across the world have been schooled on its simple principles for generations: Identify aging, low-output wells and hit them with a blast of sand and water to bolster the flow of crude. The idea originated somewhere in the plains of the American Midwest, back in the 1950s.... But as today’s engineers start applying the procedure to the horizontal wells that went up during the fracking boom that swept across U.S. shale fields over the past decade, something more powerful, more financially rewarding is happening.The short life span of these wells, long thought to be perhaps the single biggest weakness of the shale industry, is being stretched out. Early evidence of the effects of restimulation suggests that the fields could actually contain enough reserves to last about 50 years, according to a calculation based on Wood Mackenzie Ltd and ITG Investment Research data.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-06/refracking-fever-sweeps-across-shale-industry-after-oil-collapse?cmpid=BBD070715_BIZ


VEGOILS-Palm oil drops for 2nd day on Greek concerns, weak soyoil By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, July 7 (Reuters)  *Palm oil closes 1.1 pct lower on global concerns *Expectations of lower June output limit losses...The September palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange dropped 1.1 percent, or 25 ringgit, to 2,210 ringgit ($581.6) a tonne by close.


The C word... “China’s stock market rout is now spreading to other financial markets, creating a sweeping sense of panic and a liquidity crunch,” Zheng Ge, an analyst at Wanda Futures Co., said by phone in Beijing... http://www.bloomberg.com/…/euro-holds-drop-as-greece-deadli


China Markets Fall Sharply Despite Fresh Help From Beijing - Fears about faltering Chinese demand rattles commodities markets;  By Gregor Stuart Hunter  Updated July 7, 2015 10:06 p.m. ET, Chinese markets fell sharply early Wednesday, even as Beijing scrambled to arrest a three-week stock selloff.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/asian-markets-lower-amid-twin-fears-of-china-greece-1436318951?mod=djemalertMARKET

China Freezes Trading in 1,300 Companies, Locking Up 40% of Market Cap  by Kyoungwha Kimand Fox Hu July 8, 2015 — 9:38 AM HKTUpdated on July 8, 2015 — 11:09 AM HKT http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/china-trade-halts-hit-2-2-trillion-as-state-intervention-fails




1 July 2015:  Crude Calculus: More Pain in Store for Investors says Citigroup, Crude Stockpiles Unexpectedly Increase, Petrobras slashes capex in bid to cut debt, restore confidence, Crude Oil (Brent) 62.89


Crude Calculus: More Pain in Store for Investors - Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup, doesn’t think oil prices have reached a bottom this year By Nicole Friedman  June 30, 2015 11:13 a.m. ET; The oil market came roaring back in the second quarter, as traders rode a crude-price rally from $44 a barrel in mid-March to more than $60.

Oil prices lost half their value in 2014 due to booming production from the U.S. and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and an unexpected slowdown in demand. But after prices hit near six-year lows in March, investors bet that rising demand and cutbacks in drilling would eat...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-calculus-more-pain-in-store-for-investors-1435676653?mod=djem10point

Crude Stockpiles Unexpectedly Increase by 2.39M Barrels 10:52 PM HKT  July 1, 2015 Crude stockpiles reported an unexpected build during the past week as inventories climbed by 2.39 million barrels according to the Energy Information Administration. Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman reports on “Bloomberg Markets.” (Source: Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-07-01/crude-stockpiles-unexpectedly-increase-by-2-39m-barrels


UPDATE 2-Petrobras slashes capex in bid to cut debt, restore confidence By Jeb Blount (Reuters) - Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras slashed its long-term spending plan to the lowest level in eight years on Monday as new management moved to reduce the industry's largest debt burden and restore confidence after a devastating corruption scandal. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as the company is formally known, will invest $130.3 billion in the 2015-2019 period, the company said in a statement. The capital expenditure plan is 41 percent lower than the $221 billion projected in its previous five-year plan, covering the 2014-2018 period. It also trimmed its 2020 forecast for its global production by nearly a third to 3.7 million barrels of oil and equivalent natural gas a day (boepd), from its estimate of 5.3 million boepd a year ago. The investment plan, the company's smallest since 2008, is its first major admission that spending and expansion plans imposed on it by two successive center-left Workers' Party govern ents over the last decade were not realistic, especially in the face of falling world oil prices.... http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/29/brazil-petrobras-plan-idUSL2N0ZF0PC20150629


Petrobras To Announce Five Year Budget Cuts This Week 6/28/2015 @ 11:07AM ; After a grueling 9 hour budget meeting, the board of directors of Petrobras  have come up with just how much money they’ll be slicing and dicing from the country’s most important corporation. The market will get a sense of the cuts on Monday. Preliminary estimates have put cuts upwards of 40% less than previous planned at the start of the year. Petrobras has been reeling from high debts and a high profile corruption scandal that sent its share price to $5 in March and its credit rating to junk in February. As a result, the company has been shedding non-core assets, including sales of oil fields in Argentina.  The company is not expected to sell any of its pre-salt oil fields deep under the ocean floor in Brazil’s Atlantic waters, but overall capital expenditures will be drastically reduced. It is hard for investors to see how this won’t impact Petrobras’ lucrative oil finds. On Friday, in fact, Eduardo Cunha, Brazil’s leading congressman in the lower house of congress, recommended changes to current legislation on the lucrative pre-salt fields that would no longer require drillers to give Petrobras a 30% stake in the well....

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/06/28/petrobras-to-announce-five-year-budget-cuts-this-week/

27 June 2015: Oil Tankers Are Filling Up, Crude Oil (Brent)  63.26


Oil Tankers Are Filling Up and Raking It In - Surging crude-oil output has to go somewhere By Christian Berthelsen  June 25, 2015 7:11 p.m. ET The oil-tanker market is heating up, a development some analysts say is a warning flare that signals further price declines for crude. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, which tracks the rates to hire oil tankers plying 16 routes, has shot up 25% this month, as global oil output continues to grow. The index is now at its highest level since January 2014.....

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-tankers-are-filling-up-and-raking-it-in-1435273625?mod=djem10point


22 June 2015: Speculators Retreat From Oil as OPEC Oversupply Crowds Out Shale and The Shale Industry Could Be Swallowed By Its Own Debt, Goldman Sees Iron Back Below $50 as Balance of Power Shifts   - Bloomberg; Crude Oil (Brent)  63.01


Speculators Retreat From Oil as OPEC Oversupply Crowds Out Shale  by Moming Zhou June 22, 2015 — 7:01 AM HKTUpdated on June 22, 2015 — 12:05 PM HKT  Hedge funds reduced both bullish and bearish bets on oil for a fourth week as rising OPEC output was met with forecasts for a contraction in U.S. supply. Money managers trimmed their short wagers in West Texas Intermediate oil by 4.3 percent and long bets by 0.2 percent, leading to a 0.8 percent gain in the net-long position, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the seven days ended June 16 show. Trading in futures is falling as WTI swings in a $5 range, the narrowest in 19 months. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped the most oil last month since October 2012, while the U.S. government says output will start falling from this month. Investors are watching a June 30 deadline for Iran and six other nations to reach a nuclear deal that could lift oil sanctions and further swell a global supply glut.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-21/speculators-retreat-from-oil-as-opec-oversupply-crowds-out-shale

The Shale Industry Could Be Swallowed By Its Own Debt by Asjylyn Loder June 19, 2015 — 7:00 AM HKTUpdated on June 19, 2015 — 1:23 PM HKT  The debt that fueled the U.S. shale boom now threatens to be its undoing. Drillers are devoting more revenue than ever to interest payments. In one example, Continental Resources Inc., the company credited with making North Dakota’s Bakken Shale one of the biggest oil-producing regions in the world, spent almost as much as Exxon Mobil Corp., a company 20 times its size. The burden is becoming heavier after oil prices fell 43 percent in the past year. Interest payments are eating up more than 10 percent of revenue for 27 of the 62 drillers in the Bloomberg Intelligence North America Independent Exploration and Production Index, up from a dozen a year ago. Drillers’ debt ballooned to $235 billion at the end of the first quarter, a 16 percent increase in the past year, even as revenue shrank. “The question is, how long do they have that they can get away with this,” said Thomas Watters, an oil and gas credit analyst at Standard & Poor’s in New York. The companies with the lowest credit ratings “are in survival mode,” he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-18/next-threat-to-u-s-shale-rising-interest-payments?cmpid=BBD061915

Goldman Sees Iron Back Below $50 as Balance of Power Shifts  by Jasmine Ng June 22, 2015 — 11:54 AM HKTUpdated on June 22, 2015 — 3:42 PM HKT  Iron ore is headed back below $50 a metric ton as supplies from Australia and Brazil expand and a slump in steel prices squeezes mills’ profits, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., repeating a forecast that recent gains won’t last. Freight data from terminals in the two biggest shippers showed volumes rose 10 percent in the first half of June compared with the average over the first five months, the bank said in a report dated June 21. The rise will be sustained, allowing inventories in China to recover and sending prices lower again, Goldman said, predicting ore will average $49 a ton in the third quarter and $48 in the final three months. Iron ore’s been on a roller-coaster ride, sinking to a decade-low in April as surging low-cost output from miners including Rio Tinto Group boosted a glut. Tumbling stockpiles in the biggest user, after imports missed expectation  helped to spur gains in April, May and the first two weeks of June. Goldman and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. are among banks predicting higher ore prices won’t last, while Rio says further production is planned even as demand growth weakens.

“Rising supply from Brazil and Australia, which in aggregate account for 80 percent of seaborne exports, together with subdued demand from Chinese steel mills will once again shift the balance of power from producers to consumers,” analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai wrote.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-22/goldman-sees-iron-rally-ending-on-supply-tumbling-steel-profits



8 June 2015: Iran to Boost Oil Exports After Sanctions; Crude Oil (Brent) 63.31


Iran to Boost Oil Exports After Sanctions Even If Prices Fall by Claudia Carpenter June 7, 2015 — 7:39 AM BSTUpdated on June 7, 2015 — 9:03 AM BST

Iran will increase crude exports with the end of international sanctions even if oil prices decline, the country’s representative to OPEC said, adding supply after a surplus sent Brent falling almost 50 percent last year
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-07/iran-to-boost-oil-exports-after-sanctions-even-if-prices-fall



1 June 2015: Bloomberg - WTI Holds Near $60 as Saudis Pump at Record Before OPEC Meeting  and other news links; Crude Oil (Brent)  65.33


WTI Holds Near $60 as Saudis Pump at Record Before OPEC Meeting  By'Mark Shenkand Rupert Rowling 7:46 AM HKT  June 1, 2015 Oil traded around $60 a barrel in New York as Saudi Arabia maintained crude output at a record in May before OPEC meets this week to discuss its production policy. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-31/oil-halts-advance-as-saudis-pump-at-record-before-opec-meeting


Nigerian Oil Hurt by Tussle Between OPEC and U.S. - Once a highly desired, easy-to-refine product, Nigeria’s oil is now hard to sell By  Sarah Kent  June 1, 2015 2:36 a.m. ET   LONDON—In the escalating duel between U.S. and OPEC oil production, few countries’ oil industries have been hit as hard as Nigeria, highlighting a challenge for the petroleum cartel ahead of its meeting Friday. The West African nation has lost business in its main market in the U.S. and struggled to gain footholds elsewhere, raising a question for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries over whether its decision to fight for market share may have left behind more vulnerable members. http://www.wsj.com/articles/nigerian-oil-hurt-by-tussle-between-opec-and-u-s-1433140569


OPEC likely to keep output unchanged at June 5 meeting: delegates VIENNA  |  By Rania El Gamal and Alex Lawler Sun May 31, 2015 1:23pm EDT http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/31/us-opec-meeting-idUSKBN0OG0T820150531


OPEC’s Pricing Leverage Is Weakening - OPEC expected to leave crude oil output unchanged, showing how cartel’s power to sway prices has ebbed  http://www.wsj.com/articles/opecs-pricing-leverage-is-weakening-1433117819


OPEC’s Front Lines in the Shale Fields and Wall Street - U.S. oil output, aided by capital markets, is looking resilient. http://www.wsj.com/articles/opecs-front-lines-in-the-shale-fields-and-wall-street-1433090026


Morgan Stanley Sees ‘Some Risk’ OPEC May Increase Output Target 'By'Ben Sharples 9:08 AM HKT  June 1, 2015  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/morgan-stanley-sees-some-risk-opec-may-increase-output-target

 

29 May 2015: The Tanker Market Is Sending a Big Warning to Oil Bulls  - Bloomberg; Crude Oil (Brent)  63.08


The Tanker Market Is Sending a Big Warning to Oil Bulls 'By'Naomi Christieand Bill Lehane May 28, 2015 Four months into oil’s rebound from a six-year low, the tanker market is sending a clear signal that the rally is under threat. A sudden surge in demand for supertankers drove benchmark charter rates 57 percent higher in the two weeks through May 20. OPEC will have almost half a billion barrels of oil in transit to buyers at the start of June, the most this year, while analysts say about 20 million barrels is being stored on ships in another indication the glut has yet to dissipate.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping the most oil in more than two years, determined to defend market share rather than prices. A record cut to the number of active U.S. drilling rigs and billions of dollars of spending reductions by companies since last year’s price plunge has yet to translate into a slump in barrels produced. The world is pumping about 1.9 million barrels a day more crude than it needs, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “Supply of oil continues to build,” said Paddy Rodgers, the chief executive officer of Antwerp, Belgium-based Euronav NV, whose supertanker fleet can haul 56 million barrels of crude. “All of this oil needs to go somewhere,” he wrote in an e-mail May 19..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-27/oil-bulls-beware-soaring-tanker-rates-show-supply-glut-persists-ia7cvht4?cmpid=BBD052815

 

27 May 2015: Iraq About to Flood Oil Market in New Front of OPEC Price War; Crude Oil (Brent)  63.88


Iraq About to Flood Oil Market in New Front of OPEC Price War - If shipping schedules are correct, a tidal wave of oil is coming....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-26/iraq-about-to-flood-oil-market-in-new-front-of-opec-price-war?cmpid=BBD052115


14 May 2015: Crude has been moving up nicely, but some think it a trading bottom fish while fundamentals not changed much; Crude Oil (Brent)  66.53


Crude Oil (Brent)  66.53 9:22PM EDT


Oil's Not Coming Back. Here's Why 'By'Moming Zhou 7:01 AM HKT   May 13, 2015

Global oil demand will grow just 1.3 million barrels a day to 94.58 million next year, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
Oil bulls who’ve cheered a rebound of 40 percent from a six-year low should take heed: Unless demand accelerates, the rally is in danger. The omens aren’t good. The U.S. government expects global consumption to grow next year at less than half the rate of 2010, when the world was emerging from a previous recession. The growth is insufficient to close the gap with rising supply, according to Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s biggest energy producer. The last time oil crashed, during the 2008 financial crisis, China’s appetite for commodities seemed insatiable, and powered prices higher. This time, Chinese fuel use is growing at half the rate of the past decade, and sliding U.S. shale output could reverse as prices rise, smothering the gains. “The recent rally appears driven by investors looking at catching the bottom of the market and the expectation that U.S. oil production has reached a turning point,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, BNP Paribas SA’s London-based head of commodity markets strategy. “But fundamentals, notably in the U.S., have not changed much.”... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-12/china-is-missing-ingredient-in-oil-s-recovery-from-six-year-low

Looking for 24 Billion Barrels - Shell Wins U.S. Approval to Explore for Oil Off Alaska’s Arctic

Three years after the company halted Arctic operations, the Interior Department endorsed Shell’s exploration plan for the warm-weather drilling season in the Chukchi Sea.
http://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/5508cb743b35d034698ebc602lctg.2yiw/VVESrEmOBlN4_YnuB8f91

Saudi Arabia Is Making Its First Real Attempt to Be a Military Power 'By'Glen Carey 4:00 AM HKT   May 14, 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-13/saudi-hawks-ascendant-as-oil-giant-drifts-away-from-u-s-orbit

Korea’s Fuel-Cell Strategy Takes Page From China Solar Playbook 'By'Christopher Martin 7:00 AM HKT   May 14, 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-13/korea-s-fuel-cell-strategy-takes-page-from-china-solar-playbook


5 May 2015:To buy or not to buy: M&A in the E&P sector and The significance of the physical and the benefits of oil barrels - Platts blog; Crude Oil (Brent)  68.15


To buy or not to buy: M&A in the E&P sector — Energy Economist By Ross McCracken | May 1, 2015 10:37 AM Comments (0)  In this month’s highlight of material from Platts Energy Economist, managing editor Ross McCracken delves into the best places to sink capital in a time of low oil prices and whether recent investments have truly trickled through the industry yet. It is not hard to find proponents of the view that the current clampdown on capital expenditure by oil and gas companies will cause a shortage of oil in the future. Weak investment now causes low production in years to come. At the same time, low prices prompt greater demand. As soon as these two processes become entrenched, oil traders will look ahead to the impending shortage and prices will rise. Boom time returns. In this month’s edition of Energy Economist, Robert Smithson of Taube Hodson Stonex puts forward a very different scenario. Smithson argues that in production terms, the impact of record levels of E&P investment in recent years has still to feed through. Moreover, he says that US tight oil production is much more like traditional ‘long cycle’ conventional oil production than it appears.

http://blogs.platts.com/2015/05/01/ma-ep-sector-oil-prices/

The significance of the physical and the benefits of oil barrels: Petrodollars By Ned Molloy | April 27, 2015 12:01 AM Comments (0); Ned Molloy explains the benefits of having ownership of physical barrels — and how companies that do so are still competing in trading with those armed only with information — in this week’s Oilgram News column, Petrodollars. Owning a flow of oil, either through an equity stake in fields or a long-term off-take agreement, is not limited to majors or independent producers of course. It is one way oil trading houses have tried to deepen their insight into the markets in which they compete....... While buying fixed logistical assets can be a way to access information, it is also partly a response to other market participants having more information. Most trading houses own mid-stream assets like terminals and storage tanks — these have always been crucial in their business of exploiting fleeting, time-sensitive arbitrage opportunities, instead of waiting in a queue to use someone else’s facilities while the opportunity passes........ But some analysts say that increasing levels of transparency in the oil market are actually driving trading firms towards ownership of fixed assets, as information that isn’t in the public domain becomes more valuable....... Physical assets and end-to-end supply chains give traders access to exclusive and non-public information about the market. So as a result of the ever-increasing transparency brought to oil markets by price reporting agencies like Platts, “the informational value of physical-asset ownership is increasing,” according to a McKinsey consultancy paper........ http://blogs.platts.com/2015/04/27/physical-trading-oil-barrels-petrodollars/




29 April 2015: Bloomberg - The Oil Rally Looks Doomed, in Five Charts - The glut remains, and producers are ready to pounce with fresh supplies; Reuters - VEGOILS-Palm slides to 8-month low as ringgit continues to climb; Crude Oil (Brent)  64.50


The Oil Rally Looks Doomed, in Five Charts - The glut remains, and producers are ready to pounce with fresh supplies. 'By'Isaac Arnsdorf 10:07 PM HKT   April 28, 2015

Oil has surged 20 percent this month to $57 a barrel as expanding violence in Yemen stoked concern that supplies could be disrupted. The rally follows the biggest drop since 2008, with crude falling as low as $43.46 a barrel in March, as a price war broke out between OPEC producers and U.S. shale drillers. West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, is now back up at close to a four-month high. Prices gained in each of the last six weeks, the longest stretch in more than a year. Before deciding prices will race back to $100, here are five charts worth keeping in mind. "The cart is moving ahead of the horse," Barclays Plc analysts said in an April 27 report....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-28/the-oil-rally-looks-doomed-in-five-charts?cmpid=BBD042815

VEGOILS-Palm slides to 8-month low as ringgit continues to climb 28-Apr-2015 06:16:40 PM By Anuradha Raghu;  Malaysian ringgit rises as high as 3.5440 per U.S. dollar Palm oil to test support at 2,076 ringgit - technicals Climate indicators suggest El Nino is forming - Australian weather bureau

KUALA LUMPUR, April 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slid to an eight-month low on Tuesday as the ringgit continued to gain traction, stoking worries that overseas buyers may shy away from palm at a time when the tropical plant enters a higher production cycle. The Malaysian currency rose as high as 3.5440 against the U.S. dollar, its strongest since Feb. 9, in its third straight session of gains, making the ringgit-priced palm feedstock more expensive for foreign customers. "Palm is under pressure because of the strong ringgit, and talk of higher production estimates," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia....."It (the discount) has to be at a level where it can attract demand. At the moment, it is not enough," the Malaysia-based trader added.
Palm olein POL-MYRBD-M1 is currently around $70 cheaper than Argentine soyoil BO-ARGUPR-P1, from an under $25 discount early April, but narrower than $160 at the start of 2015.....

24 April 2015: Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen, all sides willing to enter peace talks, opinion - Why the Crisis in Yemen Could Tilt Mideast Power From Saudi Arabia Toward Iran, Turkey and Pakistan; Crude Oil (Brent)  64.66


Oil Set for 6th Weekly Gain as Airstrikes Shift Focus From Glut  after 'By'Heesu Lee 7:09 AM HKT  April 24, 2015; Oil headed for a sixth weekly advance as renewed speculation that Middle East shipments may be disrupted amid Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen shifted focus from the expanding U.S. glut.... Futures were little changed in New York and are up 3.2 percent this week. Raids by a coalition of mostly Sunni Muslim nations against Shiite rebels marked an escalation of the civil war in Yemen, a country near major oil fields and adjacent to key shipping routes. While U.S. crude stockpiles are at an 85-year high, data on Wednesday showed the nation’s output slid for a second week amid a drop in drilling activity.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/oil-heads-for-six-week-gain-as-airstrikes-shift-focus-from-glut



AP Interview: Yemen Peace Talks Inevitable, Says UN Official By KARIN LAUB Associated Press  AMMAN, Jordan — Apr 23, 2015, 3:33 PM ET; A renewal of talks on ending Yemen's conflict is "inevitable" and behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts could bring results in the coming weeks, including a possible U.N.-hosted conference involving most parties, the head of U.N. operations in Yemen said Thursday.... The Gulf nation of Oman is also involved in mediation, Paolo Lembo, the U.N. resident coordinator in Yemen, told The Associated Press in an interview.... Lembo, speaking at a hotel in Amman, Jordan, said all sides "are aware that there is no other solution" than a political settlement, but that fighting will likely continue for some time.... All sides have declared their willingness to enter talks, but none have taken steps so far to halt the fighting. On Thursday, Shiite rebels pressed ahead with an offensive in the south and a Saudi-led coalition bombarded them from the air, less than two days after it said it was scaling back air strikes.... The battle in Yemen, the Arab world's poorest country, pits the Houthi rebels and their allies— military units loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh — against the Saudi-led coalition and the forces of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, Yemen's internationally recognized leader.... http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ap-interview-yemen-peace-talks-inevitable-official-30532719


Graham E. Fuller - Former vice chairman, CIA’s National Intelligence Council: Why the Crisis in Yemen Could Tilt Mideast Power From Saudi Arabia Toward Iran, Turkey and Pakistan Posted:  04/23/2015 4:30 pm EDT    Updated:  4 hours ago; Does anybody remember the old Cold War geopolitical concept of the "northern tier states?" They consisted of three countries -- Turkey, Iran and Pakistan (and sometimes Afghanistan) that lay along the southern border of the Soviet Union; they were perceived in the West as a potential bulwark against Soviet aggression southward into the Middle East. Is it possible that today we are witnessing the recrudescence of a "northern tier" bloc? This time, however, the bloc would not be united against Russia at all. On the contrary, these three states demonstrate warming congeniality with many aspects of Russian, Chinese and Eurasian geopolitical views.... The ongoing crisis in Yemen may have become the midwife to such a development. If so, it is Iran that seems to be pulling the pieces together of a new loose power coalition in the Middle East.... Saudi Arabia's much-publicized creation of a Sunni coalition to fight "the Iranian and Shiite threat" in Yemen and the Gulf recently took two major body blows: the unexpected defection of both Turkey and Pakistan as active partners in Saudi Arabia's military campaign in Yemen, after having initially indicated they would join in.... Yes, it's notable that Turkey, Iran and Pakistan are all non-Arab states in the Middle East. But in speaking of a new "northern tier," we're not really talking about an Arab versus non-Arab bloc. The differences are more ideological and geopolitical; they involve differing visions of the future that may reorder the geopolitical map in the Middle East. The "northern tier states" could come to constitute a new informal power bloc that challenges Riyadh's bold, new, reactionary ambitions in the region....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/graham-e-fuller/yemen-crisis-mideast-power-shift_b_7118850.html

19 April 2015: Fresh forecasts of US close to oil output peak, global markets shudder, Canada outlook on $40 oil, Crude Oil (Brent)  63.45

The 10-Point.  Gerard Baker Editor in Chief of The Wall Street Journal 
.... Meanwhile, crude-oil production remains strong, but fresh forecasts, including one yesterday from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, suggest that the U.S. is at—or very close to—an oil-output peak. The boom will end this year, OPEC said, joining other energy forecasters this week in pointing to an imminent fall in U.S. production. It remains unclear whether America will start pumping a lot less oil or just stop adding thousands of new barrels each month.
http://tk.wsjemail.com/track?type=click&enid=ZWFzPTEmbXNpZD0xJmF1aWQ9Jm1haWxpbmdpZD01ODMzMDY5Jm1lc3NhZ2VpZD04Njg5MDAmZGF0YWJhc2VpZD02ODIwMDAmc2VyaWFsPTE2OTcyMzc2JmVtYWlsaWQ9eXVsZW5na0BnbWFpbC5jb20mdXNlcmlkPXl1bGVuZ2tAZ21haWwuY29tJnRhcmdldGlkPSZmbD0mZXh0cmE9TXVsdGl2YXJpYXRlSWQ9JiYm&&&11400021454&&&http://www.wsj.com/articles/low-prices-cool-boom-in-u-s-oil-production-1429235826?mod=djem10point
http://tk.wsjemail.com/track?type=click&enid=ZWFzPTEmbXNpZD0xJmF1aWQ9Jm1haWxpbmdpZD01ODMzMDY5Jm1lc3NhZ2VpZD04Njg5MDAmZGF0YWJhc2VpZD02ODIwMDAmc2VyaWFsPTE2OTcyMzc2JmVtYWlsaWQ9eXVsZW5na0BnbWFpbC5jb20mdXNlcmlkPXl1bGVuZ2tAZ21haWwuY29tJnRhcmdldGlkPSZmbD0mZXh0cmE9TXVsdGl2YXJpYXRlSWQ9JiYm&&&114000124556&&&http://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-sees-booming-growth-in-u-s-oil-supplies-to-end-in-2015-1429180187?mod=djem10point

U.S. Stocks Close Sharply Lower as Global Markets Shudder - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 279.67 points, or 1.5%, to 17826.10 on Friday as global stocks slumped, driven by a new round of jitters over Greece's finances, a crackdown on stock-market borrowing in China and a flurry of subpar U.S. corporate earnings. The S&P 500 declined 23.83 points, or 1.1%, to 2081.16, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 75.98 points, or 1.5%, to 4931.81. The Stoxx Europe 600 index was 1.8% lower, mirroring declines in other major indexes across the continent. Yields on 10-year German government bonds hit a record low of 0.07%, as investors pulling cash out of stocks sought safety.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-fall-along-with-european-markets-1429273588?mod=djemalertMARKET

What Canada will look like with $40 oil By Andrew Seale | Insight – Tue, 7 Apr, 2015 1:57 PM EDT.. Reuters/REUTERS - A rusty oil barrel lies in the middle of a road in the largely empty new township built for workers of the Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex in Pengerang, in the southeastern tip of Johor, February 4, 2015. A collapse in oil prices …more  It’s looking like a dreamy summer for roadtrippers.... According to TD Economics’ latest Commodity Price report, oil could hit US$40 a barrel in the second quarter of 2015. “While crude oil prices appear to have stabilized over the last two months, more weakness is likely in store,” says the report. “The market is amply supplied, and storage in the U.S. is expected to bump up against full capacity within the next few months, which should lead to another leg down in oil prices.” But while the bargain barrel prices won’t hurt the wallet when it comes to filling up the car, long-term effects will be harder to spot says Ambarish Chandra, assistant professor of economics at University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management.... “Oil is fundamentally volatile, we know that, so I wouldn’t be shocked if it spikes again but if it does stay at this level for awhile, I think of exchange rates first,” says Chandra.

For starters, Canada will be exporting less oil products and what is exported will bring in less revenue, hurting the dollar.... “The loonie would be relatively weak for awhile,” he adds. “For a lot of Canadian households it just means foreign goods become more expensive, travel to the U.S. will be harder and less attractive, the same with foreign travel.”... In theory, local goods may be less expensive but Chandra points out companies are sluggish when it comes to adjusting their prices to match lower transportation costs. “Prices are sticky, they tend not to move,” he says. “They don’t want to change prices and then have to change them back again three months later or six months later knowing the price of oil is volatile.” He points to the airline industry as a prime example. “People keep expecting airlines to lower their prices, because after all they raised them in response to the higher price of oil,” he says. “I wouldn’t be shocked if the drop in oil prices doesn’t effect airline prices at all.”........ https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/insight/the-effects-of-40-oil-150217828.html

13 April 2015: China growth slows, HK stocks chase, USD strength, BHP and Rio are flooding an oversupplied iron ore market; Germany renewables control center ensures uninterrupted power; Brent 57.96


Crude Oil (Brent) 57.96 12:52AM EDT


China Growth Last Quarter Seen Worst Since Global Recession, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/china-growth-last-quarter-seen-as-worst-since-global-recession


Major Warning Signs From China's Economy April 10, 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-04-10/how-scary-is-china-s-slowing-economy-


Greed Never Felt So Good to Hong Kong Bulls Chasing Stock Gains, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/greed-never-felt-so-good-to-hong-kong-bulls-chasing-stock-rally

The $9 Trillion Short That’s Seen Sending the Dollar Even Higher, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/the-9-trillion-short-that-s-seen-sending-the-dollar-even-higher

BHP, Rio Faulted by Barnett on Iron as Citigroup Sees $30s 'By'Jasmine Ng 7:59 AM HKT   April 13, 2015; The biggest iron ore producers including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group are pursuing a flawed strategy of flooding an oversupplied market and they should slow down expansions, the premier of Western Australia said. Shares fell.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/bhp-rio-have-flawed-iron-strategy-barnett-says-as-price-slumps


Germany Proves Life With Less Fossil Fuel Getting Easier 'By'Stefan Nicolaand Reed Landberg 7:00 AM HKT   April 13, 2015; Sitting in a control center that helps ensure uninterrupted power for 82 million Germans, Gunter Scheibner is proving that renewable energy from the sun and wind can be just as reliable as fossil fuels..... Scheibner, in charge of keeping flows stable over 6,200 miles (9,976 kilometers) of transmission lines in eastern Germany, must keep power from solar and wind in harmony whether it’s sunny or overcast, windy or still. In doing so, he’s overcoming the great challenge for renewable energy: how to keep supplies steady when the weather doesn’t cooperate.

The system Scheibner manages has been so successful that Germany experiences just 15 minutes a year of outages, compared with 68 minutes in France and more than four hours in Poland. The model in Germany, the biggest economy in the world to rely so heavily on renewables, is being copied from California to China as wind and solar displace traditional fuels such as nuclear and coal..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/germany-proves-life-with-less-fossil-fuel-getting-easier

4 April 2015: Oil falls after tentative nuclear deal for Iran,  Crude Oil (Brent)  54.95


Crude Oil (Brent)  54.95


Oil falls nearly 4 percent after tentative nuclear deal for Iran NEW YORK  |  By Barani Krishnan Thu Apr 2, 2015 8:07pm EDT (Reuters) - Brent oil fell nearly 4 percent on Thursday after a preliminary pact between Iran and global powers on Tehran's nuclear program, even as officials set further talks in June and analysts questioned when the OPEC member will be allowed to export more crude.

Traders had been fixated on the talks held in Lausanne, Switzerland for over a week as Iran tried to agree with six world powers on concessions to its nuclear program to remove U.S.-led sanctions that have halved its oil exports. The sanctions against Iran will come off under a "future comprehensive deal" to be agreed by June 30, after it complies with nuclear-related provisions, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told a news conference. "If nothing is going to be signed until June, something could go wrong between now and then," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
Bob McNally, an adviser to former U.S. president George Bush who heads energy research firm Rapidan Group, noted Iran will need much patience as the "sanctions are not likely to be lifted until late 2015 or early 2016, though we could see slippage beforehand." North Sea Brent crude futures, the more widely-used global benchmark for oil, settled down $2.15, or 3.8 percent, at $54.95 a barrel, almost $1 above the session low. U.S. crude futures settled down 95 cents, or 2 percent, at $49.14 a barrel, after falling nearly $2 earlier. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/03/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0MT0AD20150403

U.S. oil rig count cull eases, approaches low point NEW YORK  |  By Edward McAllister  Thu Apr 2, 2015 2:23pm EDT  (Reuters) - Two weeks of thin declines in the U.S. rig count have raised expectations that drilling activity is nearing a pivotal level that could dent production, bolster prices and coax idle rigs back to the field after a precipitous cull since October. Energy producers responded quickly to a steep drop in oil prices over the last six months, idling nearly 800 rigs, or 50 percent, since a peak of 1,609 rigs in October. In the last week of January, rigs fell by 94, the biggest drop on record, according to a weekly survey by oil service firm Baker Hughes. [RIG/U] U.S. companies remain nervous about oil prices. Spending has been cut as prices fail to rebound significantly, and further price drops could quickly lead to more shrinkage in the rig count.  But the decline has slowed, dropping by just 23 rigs in the last two weeks, the smallest weekly cuts since December, according to the latest survey released on Thursday, a sign that the rig count could be approaching its low point. Some reckon that a 50-60 percent drop is as far as it will fall, once energy firms remove their least efficient rigs. "Production companies are in a holding pattern for now," said Eric Lee, analyst at Citi in New York. "It could be the beginning of the flattening of the decline in the rig count."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/02/us-energy-oil-rigs-idUSKBN0MT10R20150402

2 April 2015: Iron ore slump to extend? Thailand amassing rubber hoard. Brent 55.70


Crude Oil (Brent)  55.70


Iron Ore Seen Extending Slump Below $50 as BHP, Rio Decline 'By'Jasmine Ng 12:30 PM HKT  April 2, 2015; Iron ore, which fell below $50 a metric ton on Wednesday, may extend losses as weakening producer currencies cut mining costs, reducing incentives for the supply cuts needed to balance the market, according to Societe Generale SA.... Lower energy prices have lessened freight expenses and the inability of many high-cost Chinese miners to cut output means that iron ore will stay weak, Mark Keenan, Singapore-based head of commodities research for Asia, said on Thursday. The steel-making raw material will probably drop into the low $40s a ton in the coming weeks, IG Markets Ltd. said in an e-mailed note.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-02/iron-ore-seen-extending-slump-below-50-as-miner-currencies-drop


As Rice Mountain Shrinks, Thailand Risks Amassing Rubber Hoard 'By'Supunnabul Suwannakijand Jasmine Ng 9:42 AM HKT  April 2, 2015; Eight months after Thailand’s military junta started selling rice into an oversupplied global market, the officers are taking a different tack amid a rubber glut.

But this approach by Thailand, the world’s biggest exporter of both commodities, may cause as many problems in global markets as the old one, analysts say. That’s because while the rubber purchases revived domestic prices that touched a five-year low in October, they’re failing to cut a global production surplus that is entering its fifth year, according to data from the International Rubber Study Group.... Demand is slowing in China, the world’s top buyer and tire exporter, and natural rubber faces stiffer competition from synthetic material made from crude oil, which costs half what it did a year ago. Rubber prices are down more than 70 percent from their 2011 peak as trees planted in Asia over the past decade matured and flooded the market. That hurt farmers and cut costs for users of the raw material, including Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. and Michelin & Cie.... “Thailand’s approach is just pushing the problem down the road,” Colin Hamilton, head of commodities research at Macquarie in London, said by e-mail on March 20. “The market needs supply to exit, not be encouraged.”... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-02/in-rice-for-rubber-shift-thailand-s-junta-is-a-buyer-once-again


30 March 2015: Brent eases back to $56 on renewed glut worries, Iran deal eyed, fracking link to earthquakes?


Crude Oil (Brent)  55.80


Iran Deal Unlikely Before March 31 as Russia Leaves Talks  'By'Jonathan Tirone, Kambiz Forooharand Henry Meyer 4:46 PM HKT  March 30, 2015 (Bloomberg) -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov planned to leave nuclear talks with Iran, suggesting any accord may not come until the final hours before a March 31 deadline.... Lavrov and his counterparts from five world powers and Iran met around the same table Monday for the first time in the latest round of talks in Lausanne, Switzerland. He’ll return if there’s a “realistic understanding of a deal,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. “The main thing that gives us optimism is the determination of all the ministers to reach a result without taking a pause,” said Lavrov’s deputy, Sergei Rybakov. Negotiations are in “a critical phase,” German Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said in Berlin.... After a 12-year standoff, envoys remain divided over the pace of easing sanctions on Iran and the limits to be imposed on its nuclear program. A framework accord by March 31 would be a step toward ending Iran’s economic isolation, though another three months are envisaged to reach a detailed final agreement..... If a deal is reached, Iran could add more crude to an oversupplied oil market where prices have fallen more than 50 percent since June. Iran has stored excess crude on tankers for the past 2 1/2 years as restrictions deterred buyers, according to the International Energy Agency. The country now exports about 1 million barrels of crude per day, down from 2.5 million in mid-2012, IEA data show. ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-30/iran-talks-stuck-as-ministers-step-in-before-deadline


Iran Riches Coveted by Big Oil After Decades of Conflict  'By'Javier Blas 7:01 AM HKT  March 30, 2015 Bloomberg) -- Outside the boardroom of BP Plc’s headquarters on London’s swanky St. James’s Square, a display case houses the geological data from Masjid-i-Solaiman, Iran’s first oil well. The discovery of crude in 1908 laid the foundations for the company that would become British Petroleum and opened one of the richest opportunities that Western oil companies have ever enjoyed in the turbulent Middle East. Since then, the industry’s history in Iran is intertwined with CIA-backed coups, colonial exploitation and the anti-Western resentment surrounding the 1979 Islamic Revolution.... Foreign oil companies and Tehran would need to straighten out that turbulent past that stretches all the way to the Masjid-i-Solaiman oil well. The perception among the foreign oil companies is that the history would be put aside. Sultan, the former head of Kuwait Petroleum, said Iranian leaders would play along too.  “There is a new momentum in Iran, and that momentum also includes a desire to show success in the oil front,” he said.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-29/iran-reserves-again-coveted-by-big-oil-after-decades-of-conflict


Oil Speculators Focused on Glut Miss Surge as Bombs Hit Yemen  By 'Moming Zhou 7:01 AM HKT  March 30, 2015 (Bloomberg) -- Speculators were the least bullish on crude in two years before prices surged as Saudi Arabia and its allies bombed rebels in Yemen, threatening supply disruptions in the largest oil-producing region.  Hedge funds and other money managers cut their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 3.8 percent in the seven days ended March 24, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Futures jumped more than 8 percent in the next two days before dropping 5 percent on Friday as shipping groups said there were no disruptions for now.

Refineries are set to boost rates further as seasonal maintenance ends. Plants have increased crude demand by an average 601,000 barrels a day in April and May over the past five years.... “The dollar and the rising refinery runs supported the market,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago, said by phone March 27. “It doesn’t look like the market fundamentals have changed.”

Big Oil Pressured Scientists Over Fracking Wastewater's Link to Quakes - Energy firms tried to slow science inquiries blaming them for earthquakes in Oklahoma 'By'Benjamin Elginand Matthew Philips 7:00 PM HKT  March 30, 2015; In November 2013, Austin Holland, Oklahoma’s state seismologist, got a request that made him nervous. It was from David Boren, president of the University of Oklahoma, which houses the Oklahoma Geological Survey where Holland works. Boren, a former U.S. senator, asked Holland to his office for coffee with Harold Hamm, the billionaire founder of Continental Resources, one of Oklahoma’s largest oil and gas operators. Boren sits on the board of Continental, and Hamm is a big donor to the university, giving $20 million in 2011 for a new diabetes center. Says Holland: “It was just a little bit intimidating.”....... Today, as the number of earthquakes continues to soar, Holland has evolved in his position. He recently told Bloomberg that the vast majority of the increase in earthquakes is due to the injection of oil and gas wastewater. Yet he bristles at any suggestion that industry pressure slowed him from reaching that conclusion. Oklahoma has naturally occurring earthquakes, he says, and there have been large spikes of natural earthquakes in the past where no oil and gas development was occurring. It was proper, Holland says, to start with the hypothesis that the quakes were not man-made. “Science doesn’t operate in beliefs,” he says. “It operates in demonstrable facts.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-30/big-oil-pressured-scientists-over-fracking-wastewater-s-link-to-quakes


26 March 2015: Spike up on Yemen attacks. Short squeeze to nearly $60?


Moneyweek writes in its daily newsletter with note on talk of a short squeeze: Oil prices spiked higher yesterday, as Saudi Arabia launched air strikes on Yemen. The price of Brent went up to nearly $60 a barrel, while WTI (the US benchmark) rose to around $52.... As ever in the Middle East, the details are complicated (we’ll look into it in more detail in the next issue of MoneyWeek magazine). But keeping things simple, the Saudis and other Gulf Arab states are fighting Iran-backed rebels in Yemen, in an attempt to defend the Yemeni government. ... As the FT describes it, it’s basically a Sunni-Shia cold war, with Shia Iran on one side, and the largely Sunni Arab nations on the other.... Now, Yemen doesn’t matter much to the oil price. As various pundits on CNBC point out, Yemen isn’t a big oil supplier, and the trouble isn’t directly disrupting trade routes – yet. “This could help move oil prices partly, but we don’t see that this will disrupt actual oil supply,” said one South Korean oil expert......


17 March 2015: Strong dollar, US oil price dropping, Iran deal could open oil flood, OPEC's days could be numbered, Big Oil profits from the slump, rigs running hot offshore, Brent 53.44


Unprecedented Sugar Glut Expanding as World Output Soars  by Marvin Perez, Luzi Ann Javierand Gerson Freitas Jr 7:00 AM HKT  March 17, 2015 (Bloomberg) -- The world has never been so awash in sugar. Just as cane harvests expand in India and Thailand, farmers in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, are ramping up exports to take advantage of a tumble in the exchange rate that has swelled their profit margins. And crops that were hurt by drought last year have been revived by rain. Global output is set to exceed demand for a fifth straight year, leaving the biggest stockpiles on record, the International Sugar Organization said.  All of that sugar signals global prices, already down 50 percent in three years, are poised to fall further, cutting costs for buyers like Krispy Kreme Donuts Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., the maker of Cadbury chocolates and Oreos. New York sugar futures probably will slide 5.4 percent by July to 12.02 cents a pound, the lowest since January 2009, a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts showed. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/unprecedented-sugar-glut-expanding-as-world-output-soars


Saudi Arabia Wooing Fired U.S. Shale Workers to ‘Join Our Team’ by Kelly Gilblom 8:00 AM HKT   March 17, 2015 (Bloomberg) -- Workers fired from U.S. shale fields after the collapse in oil prices could soon have a new boss: the nation some blame for driving that decline.... The state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., also known as Saudi Aramco, is posting new job ads online aiming to snap up experts in extracting oil from shale as the country seeks to become a leader in that rapidly expanding effort. Tens of thousands of U.S. workers have been fired since November as oil prices plunged because of oversupplies, driven in part by an OPEC decision supported by Saudi Arabia.... Previously, Saudi Aramco didn’t need expertise in shale oil and natural gas exploration because it has large conventional oil reserves that don’t require expensive extra steps to develop, such as the hydraulic fracturing or horizontal drilling used in shale rock. As those highly productive fields age, however, development of shale resources, along with other hard-to-reach oil categorized as “unconventional,” may help Saudi Aramco maintain its dominance in the oil market, according to John Kingston, president of the McGraw Hill Financial Institute.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-17/saudi-arabia-wooing-fired-u-s-shale-workers-to-join-our-team-

Bloomberg - Can Asia Survive a Strong Dollar? http://bv.ms/1LhWf3a


Bloomberg - Oil Is Getting Slammed Again, and Falling to Its Lowest Level in Years http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/oil-is-getting-slammed-again-and-falling-to-its-lowest-level-in-years


Bloomberg - Oil Prices May Have Further to Fall http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/fed-data-suggest-oil-prices-may-have-further-to-fall


Iran’s Nuclear Deal Could Open Oil Flood - WSJ http://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-nuclear-deal-could-open-oil-flood-1426524085?mobile=y


Bloomberg - Iran Can Add Million Barrels a Day of Oil Without Sanctions http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/iran-can-add-million-barrels-a-day-of-oil-if-sanctions-are-ended


Bloomberg - History Suggests OPEC's Days Could Be Numbered http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-10/opec-beware-cartels-tend-to-end-in-tears


Bloomberg - How Big Oil Is Profiting From the Slump http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/oil-giants-in-europe-use-trading-prowess-to-profit-from-slump


Bloomberg - Rigs Running Hot Offshore as Shale Scales Back http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/rigs-running-hot-offshore-as-shale-scales-back


15 March 2015: Matt Ridley argues that the future is in fossil fuel efficiencies, says environmental movement helped crony capitalists advantage from subsidies in renewables schemes; US deployment of drilling rigs since 2011;  GE's energy division troubles, WSJ - effects of a weak euro are reverberating through economies around the world


In conversation with specialists: The structure of some biofuels sectors - often with quite concentrated ownership of biofuel processing facilities in a few hands - is noted by various observers. NGO influenced  green standards can also help to attract new margins or earnings for entrepreneurial processors adept at navigating regulatory settings.


The Saturday Essay: Fossil Fuels Will Save the World (Really) - There are problems with oil, gas and coal, but their benefits for people—and the planet—are beyond dispute By Matt Ridley March 13, 2015 5:33 p.m. ET; That fossil fuels are finite is a red herring. The Atlantic Ocean is finite, but that does not mean that you risk bumping into France if you row out of a harbor in Maine. The buffalo of the American West were infinite, in the sense that they could breed, yet they came close to extinction. It is an ironic truth that no nonrenewable resource has ever run dry, while renewable resources—whales, cod, forests, passenger pigeons—have frequently done so..... Nuclear’s problem is cost. In meeting the safety concerns of environmentalists, politicians and regulators added requirements for extra concrete, steel and pipework, and even more for extra lawyers, paperwork and time. The effect was to make nuclear plants into huge and lengthy boondoggles with no competition or experimentation to drive down costs. Nuclear is now able to compete with fossil fuels only when it is subsidized.... As for renewable energy, hydroelectric is the biggest and cheapest supplier, but it has the least capacity for expansion. Technologies that tap the energy of waves and tides remain unaffordable and impractical, and most experts think that this won’t change in a hurry. Geothermal is a minor player for now. And bioenergy—that is, wood, ethanol made from corn or sugar cane, or diesel made from palm oil—is proving an ecological disaster: It encourages deforestation and food-price hikes that cause devastation among the world’s poor, and per unit of energy produced, it creates even more carbon dioxide than coal.... Although the world has certainly warmed since the 19th century, the rate of warming has been slow and erratic. There has been no increase in the frequency or severity of storms or droughts, no acceleration of sea-level rise. Arctic sea ice has decreased, but Antarctic sea ice has increased. At the same time, scientists are agreed that the extra carbon dioxide in the air has contributed to an improvement in crop yields and a roughly 14% increase in the amount of all types of green vegetation on the planet since 1980.... That carbon-dioxide emissions should cause warming is not a new idea. In 1938, the British scientist Guy Callender thought that he could already detect warming as a result of carbon-dioxide emissions. He reckoned, however, that this was “likely to prove beneficial to mankind” by shifting northward the climate where cultivation was possible.... Patrick Michaels of the libertarian Cato Institute has written, since 2000, 14 peer-reviewed papers, published by 42 authors, many of whom are key contributors to the reports of the IPCC, have concluded that climate sensitivity is low because net feedbacks are modest. They arrive at this conclusion based on observed temperature changes, ocean-heat uptake and the balance between warming and cooling emissions (mainly sulfate aerosols). On average, they find sensitivity to be 40% lower than the models on which the IPCC relies.... If these conclusions are right, they would explain the failure of the Earth’s surface to warm nearly as fast as predicted over the past 35 years, a time when—despite carbon-dioxide levels rising faster than expected—the warming rate has never reached even two-tenths of a degree per decade and has slowed down to virtually nothing in the past 15 to 20 years. This is one reason the latest IPCC report did not give a “best estimate” of sensitivity and why it lowered its estimate of near-term warming.... We should encourage the switch from coal to gas in the generation of electricity, provide incentives for energy efficiency, get nuclear power back on track and keep developing solar power and electricity storage. We should also invest in research on ways to absorb carbon dioxide from the air, by fertilizing the ocean or fixing it through carbon capture and storage. Those measures all make sense. And there is every reason to promote open-ended research to find some unexpected new energy technology.... The one thing that will not work is the one thing that the environmental movement insists upon: subsidizing wealthy crony capitalists to build low-density, low-output, capital-intensive, land-hungry renewable energy schemes, while telling the poor to give up the dream of getting richer through fossil fuels.... Mr. Ridley is the author of “The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves” and a member of the British House of Lords.  http://www.wsj.com/articles/fossil-fuels-will-save-the-world-really-1426282420?mod=trending_now_3


Watch Four Years of Oil Drilling Collapse in Seconds By Tom Randall  Julian Burgess  and Blacki Migliozzi  | March 13, 2014; The crash in oil prices kicked off intense debate over when, and how, American producers would react. So far they’re still cranking out oil, but there are signs that a slowdown is looming. Chief among them: the record drop-off in drilling for new oil. The animation below shows the deployment of drilling rigs since 2011, culminating recently in a sudden collapse.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-oil-rigs/?cmpid=BBD031315&alcmpid=

A Crude Awakening for General Electric - Its energy division will cut jobs and buy companies by Richard Clough 2:25 AM HKT  March 13, 2015; Not long ago, oil looked like a black gold mine for General Electric. The company known for toaster ovens and lightbulbs wrapped up a three-year, $10 billion buying spree in 2013 to bolster the growing oil and gas equipment unit that helped GE recover from the financial crisis. The company bulked up with the expectation that crude prices would remain at about $100 a barrel for years.... These days, with the price of oil 40 percent lower than six months ago, energy companies are buying less drilling and processing equipment. The industry plans to slash spending by $40 billion and cut 100,000 jobs globally. GE’s oil unit is cutting costs and laying off employees, too. In December the company warned investors that the oil and gas division in 2015 could face its first sales decline—of as much as 5 percent—in five years. “I am not being Pollyannaish in any way,” says Jeff Bornstein, GE’s chief financial officer. “It’s going to be a very tough orders year, and we’re going to see an impact.”... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/general-electric-bets-big-on-oil-and-gas-division?cmpid=BBD031315&alcmpid=


The 10-Point. Gerard Baker, Editor in Chief of The Wall Street Journal, 13 March 2015. Two Sides of the Coin -  The effects of a weak euro are reverberating through economies around the world. Our story looks at how the tumbling euro is boosting optimism in corporate Europe while, at the same time, causing a headache for U.S. competitors. It remains unclear whether the weak euro, monetary stimulus and cheap energy prices will be enough to lift the eurozone out of its prolonged growth malaise. Past episodes of sharp devaluations in developed economies show the impact often boosts growth, but positive results aren’t guaranteed—a lesson relevant for Europe today. Meanwhile, the surging dollar and a global slowdown are likely to restrain the U.S. economy through at least the first half of the year, according to the Journal’s March survey of economic forecasters. 


14 March 2015: Brent slides to $54.67, Alan Greenspan: Oil Price Hasn’t Hit Bottom Yet


Crude Oil (Brent)  -2.41  54.67 -4.22% Closed:  6:00PM EDT; Reuters reports worries about US oil storage running out of space.


Alan Greenspan: Oil Price Hasn’t Hit Bottom Yet 9:13 PM HKT  March 13, 2015

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan talks about the outlook for oil markets, the U.S. economy and the dollar. Greenspan speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-13/alan-greenspan-oil-price-hasn-t-hit-bottom-yett

12 March 2015: Reuters reports on Ringgit at 6-year low, Brent rebounds and widens gap on US crude down on new record US oil inventories, Euro slumps to 12-year low - Brent 57.82


VEGOILS-Market factors to watch March 12 - RTRS  12-Mar-2015 08:23

FUNDAMENTALS
 * Malaysian palm oil futures snapped a five-day losing streak on Wednesday as the ringgit slid to its weakest in six years, although gains were capped by palm's narrowing discount to rival soyoil.
 * U.S. wheat futures rose 1.2 percent to a one-week high on Wednesday, extending four-day gains to nearly 4 percent on short-covering and concerns about dry weather in U.S. growing regions.
 * Benchmark Brent oil jumped 2 percent on Wednesday, rebounding from a one-month low and widening its gap to U.S. crude, which closed slightly down after a new record high for oil inventories in the United States.
 MARKET NEWS
 * The euro slumped to a 12-year low against the dollar on Wednesday, driving European stocks higher as shares of big exporters gained, while U.S. stocks slipped on concern over when the Federal Reserve would begin to raise U.S. interest rates.

5 March 2015: Oil price will blow a hole in corporate accounting - Bloomberg; Brent 60.55 6:00PM EST


The Price of Oil Is About to Blow a Hole in Corporate Accounting 'By'Asjylyn Loder 8:00 AM AWST  March 4, 2015; (Bloomberg) -- There’s one place in the world where oil is still $95 a barrel. On paper. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requires drillers to calculate the value of their oil reserves every year using average prices from the first trading days in each of the previous 12 months. Because oil didn’t start its freefall to about $45 till after the OPEC meeting in late November, companies in their latest regulatory filings used $95 a barrel to figure out how much oil they could profitably produce and what it’s worth. Of the 12 days that went into the fourth-quarter average, crude was above $90 a barrel on 10 of them.... So Continental Resources Inc., led by billionaire Harold Hamm, reported last month that the present value of its oil and gas operations increased 13 percent last year to $22.8 billion. For Devon Energy Corp., a pioneer of hydraulic fracturing, it jumped 31 percent to $27.9 billion.... This year tells a different story. The average price on the first trading days of January, February and March was $51.28 a barrel. That means a lot of pain -- and writedowns -- are in store when drillers’ first-quarter numbers are announced in April and May.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/oil-at-95-a-barrel-discovered-in-sec-rules-on-reserves?cmpid=BBD030415&alcmpid=


27 February 2015: Saudi oil price war paying off says BofA, Noble shares plunge after loss as accounting criticized


Crude Oil (Brent) 61.31


Saudis’ Oil Price War Is Paying Off by Grant Smithand Anthony Dipaola 8:01 AM AWST   February 27, 2015 (Bloomberg) -- Three months after Saudi Arabia made clear it was going to let oil prices keep tumbling, the strategy is showing signs of working.  U.S. drillers are idling rigs at a record pace, gutting investment plans and laying off thousands of workers.  Those steps highlight how the Saudi-led OPEC decision on Nov. 27 to maintain output levels and protect its market share is having the desired effect -- pushing prices down so far that they threaten to curb output in the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries. Saudi Arabia, the most powerful member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, will maintain that tack when the group next meets in June, according to some of the world’s biggest banks.  The strategy “is working,” Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Corp. in New York said by phone. “It is having the effect that we would expect, which is a decline in investment and ultimately supply, and somewhat higher demand. We think this change is for good.”  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/saudis-bold-gambit-paying-off-just-three-months-later-energy


Noble Shares Plunge After Loss as Accounting Is Criticized by Yuriy Humberand Jonathan Burgos 5:52 PM AWST   February 26, 2015; (Bloomberg) -- Noble Group Ltd. shares fell to the lowest in almost two weeks after reporting a first quarterly loss in more than three years, following allegations of accounting malpractice that the company believes to be the work of a disgruntled ex-employee.

Noble took a $438 million writedown, including charges on assets scrutinized by the anonymous Iceberg Research as part of its allegations. Noble’s shares fell 5.2 percent to S$1.005 as of 11:02 a.m. in Singapore, after a suspension yesterday.... Asia’s largest commodity and energy trader by revenue swung to a $240 million fourth-quarter loss following tumbling commodity prices that hit revenues at its mining and mineral operations and required more capital for provisions, according to a statement yesterday.... The results come on the heels of Iceberg’s two reports critical of the Hong Kong-based company’s accounting practices. The initial report last week included allegations that Noble was overstating the value of associate companies including Yancoal Australia Ltd., sparking a decline of as much as 15 percent in the stock over two days.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-26/noble-posts-240-million-loss-as-its-accounting-comes-under-fire


24 February 2015: Bloomberg on oil prices yet to hit bottom on OPEC meeting and "dead cat bounce"; US banks hoard cash instead of lending, banks face scrutiny on rigging precious-metals markets; Crude Oil (Brent) 59.10


Why Oil Prices Have Not Yet Hit Bottom 6:10 AM AWST  February 24, 2015

Feb. 23 -- Crude fell, extending last week’s decline on speculation excess global supply will accumulate after U.S. drillers idled fewer oil rigs and Libya restarted a pipeline. Bloomberg's Isaac Arnsdorf reports on "Street Smart."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-23/why-oil-prices-have-not-yet-hit-bottom

U.S. Banks Hoard $2 Trillion of Ultra-Safe Bonds 'By'Liz McCormickand Daniel Kruger 8:00 AM AWST  February 23, 2015 (Bloomberg) -- What do America’s banks know about the state of the U.S. economy that has them hoarding ultra-safe bonds? Growth is on a tear, hiring is the strongest in decades and households are the most upbeat since 2011. Yet banks such as Bank of America Corp. keep plowing their burgeoning deposits into U.S. government and related debt -- pushing the industry’s holdings past $2 trillion -- instead of lending it all out.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-23/bofa-leads-charge-into-bonds-as-banks-build-2-trillion-hoard


WSJ MARKETS ALERT: Big Banks Face Scrutiny Over Pricing of Metals - U.S. officials are investigating at least 10 major banks for possible rigging of precious-metals markets, even though European regulators dropped a similar probe after finding no evidence of wrongdoing, according to people close to the inquiries. Prosecutors in the Justice Department's antitrust division are scrutinizing the price-setting process for gold, silver, platinum and palladium in London, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened a civil investigation, these people said.


21 February 2015: Cheaper oil helps more spending Lunar New Year treats; Buffet dumping Exxon for Suncor, Phi9llips 66 and others; inventories are up and US running out of storage space while US oil rigs fall again; Why oil may fall more; Crude Oil (Brent) 60.22


Another Happy Consequence of Cheap Oil - Falling oil is leaving more money for Lunar New Year treats by 'By'Rina Chandranand Ailing Tan 10:05 AM AWST  February 18, 2015 Each year, Singapore's inflation has usually ticked up in the weeks before Chinese New Year, partly because of the higher prices of the beloved bak kwa, or barbecued pork, that is gifted and consumed in enormous quantities during the festival. While the delicacy is available all year round, long lines can be seen outside the most popular shops in the weeks before the holiday, which even impose limits on individual purchases. An exception to the inflation-bak kwa relation was 2014, when lower COE or vehicle-permit prices caused inflation to slow. This year, it's oil. The Bloomberg bak kwa index -- which tracks prices of the traditional barbecued pork at four of Singapore's most popular vendors -- shows prices are at a record high this year. Inflation though, is at a five-year low, as cheaper oil more than offsets pricier bak kwa. So there are even longer lines at the shops.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-18/cheaper-oil-takes-edge-off-chinese-new-year-treats-in-singapore


U.S. Stocks Rise to Records in Week on Greek Deal, Fed Rate Bets 'By'Callie Bost 6:15 AM AWST  February 21, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/u-s-stocks-rise-to-records-in-week-on-greek-deal-fed-rate-bets


Buffett Dumping Exxon Points Investors to Review Oil Bets 'By'Joe Carroll 1:40 AM AWST February 19, 2015 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’s decision to dump his stake in Exxon Mobil Corp. after oil prices plunged is pointing investors toward smaller, more nimble producers that will deliver higher returns during a market recovery.  Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold its entire position in Exxon during the final three months of last year, according to a regulatory filing on Tuesday. The exit marks the end of a $3.7 billion investment in 2013 that at the time was Buffett’s biggest single bet since he bought into International Business Machines Corp. two years earlier.  Berkshire is focusing energy investments on more promising names, said Allen Good, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. The Omaha, Nebraska-based company added to its holdings in Canadian oil-sands miner Suncor Energy Inc. and crude refiner Phillips 66, according to the filing that detailed Buffett’s portfolio as of Dec. 31.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-18/buffett-dumping-exxon-stake-points-investors-to-rethink-oil-bets


Another Big Reason to Think Oil Prices Aren't Going Up Soon - Inventories bursting at the seams 'By'Tom Randall 5:57 AM AWST   February 21, 2015 Oil just had its first weekly decline in a month, breaking a rally in crude prices. A bit of context: After what's happened over the last year, "rally" seems a bit of an overstatement.  One big factor that may be driving prices down this week: The U.S. is pumping so much oil it's running out of places to stash it.  Crude oil in storage in the U.S. has jumped to the highest levels in at least 80 years, according to a Bloomberg Industries analysis. The EIA this week reported that U.S. inventories rose 7.7 million barrels to 425.6 million. That's more than 20 percent higher than the five-year average.  The buildup of supply has been "colossal" and is responsible for oil prices falling this week, Thomas Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group LLC, told Bloomberg News.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/another-big-reason-to-think-oil-prices-aren-t-going-up-soon


Get Ready for $10 Oil by A. Gary Shilling  Feb 16, 2015 6:00 PM EST At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why.  http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-16/oil-prices-likely-to-fall-as-supplies-rise-demand-falls


U.S. Oil Rigs Tumble Again, in Line With Twitter Estimates 'By'Tom Randall 2:13 AM AWST  February 21, 2015 U.S. oil and gas rigs continued to fall this week despite still-rising levels of production. Drillers idled 48 rigs (37 of which were oil rigs), dropping the number to 1,310 and marking the 11th consecutive decline, Baker Hughes reported on Friday. The total U.S. rig count is down 32 percent since October, an unprecedented retreat. The median forecast from a Bloomberg survey of ten #RigCountGuesses on Twitter was for a decline of 52.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/u-s-oil-rigs-tumble-again-in-line-with-twitter-estimates


Arctic Oil Drillers Face Tighter U.S. Rules to Stop Spills 'By'Mark Drajem 2:35 AM AWST  February 21, 2015 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc and any oil drilling company that prospects in the Arctic Ocean must boost safety practices to prevent spills in the frigid and often hostile waters or mitigate the impact, U.S. regulators proposed Friday.  The Interior Department’s first Arctic-specific drilling rules respond to mishaps that plagued Shell’s efforts three years ago, by shortening the drilling season and requiring companies to have a backup rig nearby. Shell had already agreed to do much of what’s in the proposal as part of its 2012 exploration plan, which was suspended after the stumbles.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/arctic-oil-drillers-face-tighter-u-s-rules-to-prevent-spills



16 February 2015: Crude Oil Bears Betting on Supply Glut Miss Market Rally - Bloomberg, why the number of oil rigs may not matter anymore, more on the Goldman view; Brent 61.30

Crude Oil Bears Betting on Supply Glut Miss Market Rally (Bloomberg) -- Speculators cut bullish oil bets for a fourth week, missing a market rebound.  Hedge funds and other money managers decreased net-long positions in West Texas Intermediate crude by 9.1 percent since Jan. 13, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.  Futures climbed for a third week as companies including Apache Corp. and Total SA announced spending cuts. Bad weather kept tankers from loading in southern Iraq and Libya’s production decreased. Baker Hughes Inc. said rigs targeting oil in the U.S. dropped to the lowest in almost five years.... “U.S. production hasn’t started to decline yet, but it is probably going to go flat in June, maybe as early as May,” James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics, an energy-research firm in London, Arkansas, said by phone Feb. 13. “We’ll have a decline in production in the second half.” ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-16/crude-oil-bears-betting-on-supply-glut-miss-market-rally-energy
This Chart Shows Why the Number of Oil Rigs May Not Matter Anymore  - Rig history repeats itself by Tom Randall 5:31 AM AWST   February 14, 2015; The number of oil rigs drilling new wells in the U.S. has collapsed at an unprecedented rate. The weekly number has gathered a huge following as investors try to figure out when the crash in oil prices has reached its bottom. Strangely, the number may be irrelevant.... But production isn't slowing yet. In fact, last week the U.S. pumped more crude than at any time since the 1970s. “The headline U.S. oil rig count offers little insight into the outlook for U.S. oil production growth,” Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin wrote in a Feb. 10 report.
We've seen this before, in natural gas. The chart below shows a striking separation between natural gas production, in orange, and natural gas rigs, in blue. The massive increase in efficiency this represents helped fuel the U.S. fracking boom and has led to some of the world's lowest prices in natural gas, in gray....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/this-chart-shows-why-the-number-of-oil-rigs-may-not-matter-anymore

Goldman: Here's Why Oil Crashed—and Why Lower Prices Are Here to Stay - Too. Much. Oil.  by Tom Randall 4:37 AM AWST  February 12, 2015; Goldman’s model is simple on its face, looking at just two variables over time: the price of oil and the value of U.S. stocks (as measured by the S&P 500). The idea is that the stock market is a pretty good indicator of economic demand. So when stocks move in tandem with oil prices, demand is in the driver’s seat. When the price of oil moves in the opposite direction of stocks, the shock is coming from supply.... It’s a bit more complicated than that—for the statistically inclined, Goldman uses a “vector autoregression with sign restrictions”—but you get the idea.... The big take-away: “[T]he decline in oil has been driven by an oversupplied global oil market,” wrote Goldman economist Sven Jari Stehn. As a result, “the new equilibrium price of oil will likely be much lower than over the past decade.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-11/goldman-here-s-why-oil-crashed-and-why-lower-prices-are-here-to-stay

11 February 2015: Goldman, Citi expect resumption of lower prices; Russia oil taxes, Germany-Greece tussle, White House concern on Climate Change impact more than Terror; Brent 56.43


Goldman: The Plunge in Rig Count Still Isn't Enough to Stop Oil From Tumbling 'By'Ann Koh 7:15 PM AWST February 11, 2015; (Bloomberg) -- The slump in oil prices may not be over, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.... The decline in the number of U.S. drilling rigs that’s helped crude futures in New York rebound 14 percent from this year’s low isn’t enough to reduce an oversupply, the U.S. bank said in a note dated Feb. 10. Lower prices are needed for American output to slow sufficiently to rebalance global markets, it said.... Goldman joins Citigroup Inc. and Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent oil trader, in signaling prices may resume a decline amid unrelenting production growth. West Texas Intermediate crude is still down by half from last year’s peak as the U.S. pumps the most in three decades. While companies have idled rigs and cut spending, it will be some time before production is affected, according to the International Energy Agency....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-11/goldman-sees-oil-rally-fading-with-further-cuts-needed

Why Oil Could Fall to $20 a Barrel

http://www.wsj.com/video/why-oil-could-fall-to-20-a-barrel/40F4EA84-7C20-4B4E-8A12-1364756240AE.html?mod=djemTEW_h

Russia Faces Fight Over Billions in Oil Taxes on Crude Slump - Bloomberg Business

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/russia-faces-battle-over-billions-in-oil-taxes-after-crude-slump?cmpid=BBD021015&alcmpid=

Germany Toughens Tone With Greece Before EU Meetings - Bloomberg Business

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/schaeuble-says-over-for-greece-unless-aid-program-accepted?cmpid=BBD021015&alcmpid=

White House: Climate Change Has Bigger Impact Than Terror - http://www.wsj.com/video/white-house-climate-change-has-bigger-impact-than-terror/44DE368E-A350-4621-89ED-3E1B6A501283.html?mod=djemTEW_h; U.S. Estimates 20,000 Foreign Fighters Heading to Syria, Iraq - WSJ - http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-estimates-20-000-foreign-fighters-heading-to-syria-iraq-1423605432?mobile=y



10 February 2015: IEA talks oil price rebound but Citi report lowers forecast for crude (says $20 on way after current head-fake surge, rebound to $75 and $54 for the year), survival skills, undervalued stocks bottoming talk, oil jobs start drying up....Crude Oil (Brent) 57.77


Crude Oil (Brent) 57.77


Oil-Price Rebound Predicted - In the latest sign that the seven-month selloff in crude-oil prices may be nearing a bottom, an energy watchdog said that a recovery seems "inevitable" and the glut that has driven down prices by more than 50% since June could start to ease as soon as the second half of the year.... A wave of spending cuts by oil producers and a sharp decline in the number of rigs drilling for crude in the U.S. likely will slow the nation's oil-output growth, spurring a rebound in prices, the International Energy Agency said in a report.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/demand-for-opec-crude-will-rise-this-year-says-group-1423482563?mod=djemalertMARKET

WSJ: The seven-month selloff in crude-oil prices may be nearing a bottom. We report that the International Energy Agency, which coordinates energy policy among industrialized countries, added its voice to the chorus ofexperts who say that the global glut is abating. A day earlier, OPEC also said demand for the group’s oil would rise in 2015, reversing an earlier estimate that predicted a decline. Our story examines the implications of the new forecasts. If sustained, rising oil prices would curb the boon consumers have reaped from lower gasoline prices. They could also create headwinds for a global economy already struggling with fragile growth in some corners. But a stabilization in oil prices would also spell relief across financial markets, which have been rocked by the recent plunge in prices. U.S. stocks rebounded last week amid hopes that the fall in oil prices might finally be over. However, prices fell again in Asian trade this morning, amid uncertainty over whether they will stabilize and weak Chinese inflation data.....


Citi: Oil Could Plunge to $20, and This Might Be 'the End of OPEC' ; This time is different... The recent surge in oil prices is just a "head-fake," and oil as cheap as $20 a barrel may soon be on the way, Citigroup said in a report on Monday as it lowered its forecast for crude....A pullback in production isn't likely until the third quarter, Morse said. In the meantime, West Texas Intermediate Crude, which currently trades at around $52 a barrel, could fall to the $20 range "for a while," according to the report. The U.S. shale-oil revolution has broken OPEC's ability to manipulate prices and maximize profits for oil-producing countries.....Citi reduced its annual forecast for Brent crude for the second time in 2015. Prices in the $45-$55 range are unsustainable and will trigger "disinvestment from oil" and a fourth-quarter rebound to $75 a barrel, according to the report. Prices this year will likely average $54 a barrel.....  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/citi-oil-could-plunge-to-20-and-this-might-be-the-end-of-opec-


Undervalued Energy Stock May Have Bottomed - http://www.wsj.com/video/undervalued-energy-stock-may-have-bottomed/39453C41-3EE9-4610-8E72-5621274577D0.html?mod=djemTEW_h


Oil Producers Stress Survival Skills - WSJ - http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-producers-stress-survival-skills-1423520124?mobile=y


OPEC Sees More Demand for Its Oil, Less U.S. Output - WSJ - http://www.wsj.com/articles/demand-for-opec-crude-will-rise-this-year-says-group-1423482563?mobile=y


Oil Jobs Start Drying Up - Bloomberg Business - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/roughnecks-and-roustabouts-still-have-their-fracking-jobs-but-for-how-long-?cmpid=BBD020915&alcmpid=



6 February 2015: WSJ articles "A Crude Awakening" on oil price dip on US 80-year high inventories, why cheaper oil may not lead to economic growth, analysts failing to see price fall; Brent holding up at $57.20, Saudis deepen Asia oil discount


A Crude Awakening by  The 10-Point from Gerard Baker, 5 February 2015

Falling oil prices were supposed to boost growth in a host of major oil-importing economies. But so far, at least, it doesn’t seem to be working that way. Our story looks at the economic consequences of tumbling oil prices. Some governments have already moved to use the opportunity of lower energy prices to shore up their flagging revenues. We note also that falling oil costs have pumped up deflation fears across Europe and Japan, adding to the risk that consumers and businesses will hold back on spending and investment. And one expert noted that the more oil prices lower inflation expectations in those countries, the less effective new central bank easy-money policies meant to spur growth will be. So far, political and economic headwinds appear to be offsetting any gains seeping in from cheaper energy costs. Meanwhile, oil prices posted their largest one-day drop in two months on Wednesday as data showed U.S. crude supplies near 80-year highs. And we examine the failure of Wall Street analysts to foresee the depth of the oil decline.  


Saudis Deepen Asia Oil Discount to a Record Low  'By' Mark Shenkand Anthony Dipaola

8:00 AM BNT   February 6, 2015 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, cut prices for March oil sales to Asia, a sign that the desert kingdom is fighting for market share.
State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. lowered its official selling price for Arab Light 90 cents to $2.30 a barrel less than Middle East benchmarks, the company said in an e-mailed statement Thursday. That’s the lowest in at least 14 years since Bloomberg began gathering data..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/saudis-deepen-asia-oil-discount-to-a-a-record-low

Oil Prices Slump as Inventories Rise Near 80-Year Highs - Nymex Crude Posts Biggest One-Day Drop in Two Months By Nicole Friedman; Oil prices tumbled 8.7% on Wednesday, halting a robust four-day rally, after data showed that U.S. crude supplies had climbed to their highest level in about 80 years.... U.S. crude oil for March delivery sank $4.60, or 8.7%, to $48.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the largest one-day decline since Nov. 28, 2014.... http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-holds-on-to-bulk-of-recent-gains-1423031216?mod=djem10point


Why Cheaper Oil Doesn’t Always Lead to Economic Growth - Some Governments Raise Taxes, Keeping Pump Prices High; Lower Costs Also Stoke Deflation Fears  By Ian Talley in Washington and Brian Spegele in Beijing... Tumbling oil prices were supposed to boost growth in a host of major oil-importing economies. It isn’t necessarily working out that way.... http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-cheaper-oil-doesnt-always-lead-to-economic-growth-1423083687?mod=djem10point


Analysts Blow Calls on Oil Stocks - In Assessing Energy Companies, Many Failed to Foresee Depth of Crude’s Decline By Alexandra Scaggs In late November, as collapsing oil prices pummeled energy-company shares, a Raymond James & Associates analyst told investors that energy stocks were still a good bet.... http://www.wsj.com/articles/analysts-blow-calls-on-oil-1423101306?mod=djem10point



4 February 2015: Oil price has been rebounding smartly (Brent now at $57.75), US producers' strike helps, BP and Exxon news, Rabobank sees limited impact of lower oil price on food industry, palm oil price has poor start in 2015



source: Bloomberg.com


U.S. Oil Settles Up 7% at Highest Level of the Year - Oil prices soared Tuesday, providing investors some respite from a prolonged selloff that rattled financial markets, the energy sector and oil-dependent economies. The benchmark crude-oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up 7% at $53.05 a barrel, the highest level since Dec. 31. Nymex crude is up 19% from its Jan. 28 low.  http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-extends-rally-but-markets-cautious-over-rebound-1422944186?mod=djemalertMARKET


Bloomberg - U.S. Producers’ Strike Pushes Oil Prices Higher http://bloom.bg/16frpFg


Lower oil price to have ‘limited’ impact on food industry: Rabobank

http://mobile.foodnavigator-usa.com/Markets/Lower-oil-price-to-have-limited-impact-on-food-industry-Rabobank/?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=30-Jan-2015&c=g5U1F%2FHXoYpplOhW9riJWVONFcwmWNry#.VM6xyckZ7qA

Palm oil price has poor start for the year - Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/palm-oil-heads-for-worst-start-to-year-since-10-as-demand-slows


Bloomberg - BP Fourth-Quarter Profit Falls on Slumping Crude Oil Prices http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-03/bp-fourth-quarter-profit-declines-on-slumping-crude-oil-prices


Bloomberg - Obama to Oil Industry: Drill There, Not Here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-28/obama-to-oil-industry-drill-there-not-here


Bloomberg - Seven Reasons Cheap Oil Can't Stop Renewables Now http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/seven-reasons-cheap-oil-can-t-stop-renewables-now


Bloomberg - I Survived the Global Crisis Only to Find It's the Recovery That Hurts: Australia http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-03/i-survived-the-global-crisis-only-to-find-it-s-the-recovery-that-hurts-australia


Exxon Could Be the Big Winner of the Oil Crash - Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/exxon-could-be-the-big-winner-of-the-oil-crash?cmpid=BBD020215&alcmpid=


Exxon’s Profit Drops 21% as Production Declines - WSJ, http://www.wsj.com/articles/exxons-profit-drops-21-1422882396?mobile=y


Bloomberg - Bankers See $1 Trillion of Zombie Investments Stranded in the Oil Fields http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-18/bankers-see-1-trillion-of-investments-stranded-in-the-oil-fields



28 January 2015: Views from an oil economist, Bloomberg reports hedge funds bet on further price fall, S&P cuts Russia to Junk, falling oil prices and wind and solar


Brent Crude this morning $49.60


In conversation with an oil economist from an oil and gas company (a few days ago), some views shared: oil price could drop further as inventories are building up and storage getting full with China turning back cargo. Saudi marginal cost of production is low around $5. It may take 3 years or so for oil prices to recover toward $100 and cash rich oil companies are seeking buying opportunities. The offer of sale of assets was apparent in the industry, even before the oil price collapse.


Bloomberg - Hedge Funds Bet Oil Will Fall Further http://bloom.bg/1CHWY7m


S&P Cuts Russia Credit Rating to Junk, Standard Poor's Ratings Services on Monday cut its credit rating on Russia to junk, deeming the country below investment grade for the first time in more than 10 years.  The one-notch downgrade of Russia's long-term foreign-currency rating was largely expected and priced into Russian asset prices.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/s-p-downgrades-russia-foreign-currency-rating-to-junk-1422297409?mod=djemalertMARKET

Will falling oil prices kill wind and solar? http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-falling-oil-prices-kill-wind-and-solar-power/?WT.mc_id=SA_Facebook


26 January 2015: Saudis worry most about falling demand, Saudi's King Abdullah died age 90, new King Salman to maintain oil policies, Alwaleed: no more $100+ oil; Brent now around $48


For Saudis, Falling Demand for Oil Is the Biggest Concern By Isaac Arnsdorf  Jan 26, 2015 11:55 AM GMT+0800 ; As the world’s oil producers wring their hands over a global glut that’s pushing down prices, evidence is mounting that Saudi Arabia is more concerned about shrinking demand.

The world’s largest exporter has chosen not to cut production, counting instead on lower prices to stimulate consumption, said Mohammad Al Sabban, an adviser to Saudi Arabia’s petroleum minister from 1988 to 2013. The Saudis are keeping an eye on investments in fuel efficiency and renewable energy, according to Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Corp.’s head of global commodity research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-26/for-saudis-falling-demand-for-oil-is-the-biggest-concern.html

Prince Alwaleed: We'll Never See Oil at $100-Plus Again; http://www.bloomberg.com/video/what-can-we-expect-from-saudi-arabia-s-king-salman-7UF~C3UhSGGI4Hx1Iyn3NA.html


Saudi Arabia’s King Salman to Maintain Oil Policies; http://www.bloomberg.com/video/saudi-arabia-s-king-salman-to-maintain-oil-policies-x09~~BBeTRm3jXpBuiTX4g.html


It's downhill for US after Saudi king dies: Experts by Tom DiChristopher

Friday, 23 Jan 2015 | 1:38 PM ET; http://www.cnbc.com/id/102362872

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah dies at 90 - Abdullah’s half-brother Salman pledges to continue predecessors’ policies after ascending the throne

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/22/saudi-arabia-king-abdullah-dies

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia obituary - Monarch whose reign saw the spread of division, corruption and strife, and was saved only by ‘black gold’

by Madawi al-Rasheed, The Guardian, Thursday 22 January 2015 23.43 GMT
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/22/king-abdullah-of-saudi-Arabia


20 January 2015: US resists price intervention, Iran says it can withstand $25; contango, oil storage and offshore supertankers


Oil Drops Below $48 a Barrel as U.S. Resists Market Intervention  By Ben Sharples  Jan 20, 2015 8:53 AM GMT+0800; Oil traded below $48 a barrel as the U.S. signaled it won’t intervene in the market even as prices decline.... Futures fell as much as 3 percent in New York from the Jan. 16 settlement after floor trading was closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. The U.S., the world’s biggest oil user, will let the market decide what happens, according to Amos Hochstein, the State Department’s energy envoy. Iran is strong enough to withstand a deeper slump even if it must sell at $25 a barrel, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-19/oil-drops-below-48-a-barrel-as-u-s-resists-market-intervention.html


World’s Largest Traders Use Offshore Supertankers to Store Oil - Companies Are Buying Oil Now to Sell Later When Prices Rise  By Sarah Kent And Georgi Kantchev; The supertanker TI Oceania was built to ferry vast quantities of oil across oceans, but for the next year it is expected to remain anchored off the coast of Singapore, storing millions of barrels of oil for Vitol SA, a giant trading house.... According to shipbrokers and analysts, the 3-million-barrel megaship—one of the largest in the world—is just one example of efforts by traders to turn a profit in the slumping global oil market.... http://www.wsj.com/articles/worlds-largest-traders-use-offshore-supertankers-to-store-oil-1421689744?tesla=y


Commodity Traders Exploit Crude Crash to Make Oil Storage King By Andy Hoffman and Rupert Rowling  Jan 14, 2015 1:00 PM GMT+0800 While the 28-company STOXX 600 Oil & Gas Index has fallen 3.7 percent this month, shares of Rotterdam-based Royal Vopak NV (VPK), the world’s largest independent storage tank operator, have surged 14 percent.... “We don’t know specifically about occupancy rates but we hear from companies that inquiries for tank storage are growing,” Ronald Backers, adviser for business intelligence at the Port of Rotterdam, said by phone Jan. 12. Europe’s largest port has crude oil tank storage of 85.6 million barrels.... Refiners, tankage firms and traders that invested in oil storage capacity are benefiting as the slump in crude to below $45 a barrel deepened what’s called contango, a relatively rare situation where prices for oil delivery later this year are higher than current prices. Vitol Group, Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. and Gunvor Group Ltd. are among the commodity houses poised to profit by storing oil and petroleum products to sell in the future.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/oil-storage-is-king-as-commodity-traders-exploit-crash-in-crude.html


18 January 2015: Brent ends the week at $50.17




14 January 2015: Bloomberg reports oil at "$40 and below" gaining traction in financial markets, 1980s OPEC and supply shock history; palm oil watchers worry about its biodiesel demand (16% of output) on its wide price premium as oil price sinks


Oil at $40, and Below, Gaining Traction on Wall Street By Grant Smith  Jan 14, 2015 8:01 AM GMT+0800; Brace for $40-a-barrel oil. The U.S. benchmark crude price, down more than $60 since June to below $45 yesterday, is on the way to this next threshold, said Societe Generale SA and Bank of America Corp. And Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says that West Texas Intermediate needs to remain near $40 during the first half to deter investment in new supplies that would add to the glut.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-14/oil-at-40-and-below-gaining-traction-on-wall-street.html


Arctic Explorers Retreat From Hostile Waters With Oil Prices Low By Mikael Holter  Jan 14, 2015 7:01 AM GMT+0800; When Statoil acquired the last of three licenses off Greenland’s west coast in January 2012, oil at more than $110 a barrel made exploring the iceberg-ridden waters an attractive proposition..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/arctic-explorers-retreat-from-hostile-waters-with-oil-prices-low.html


Oil Collapse of 1986 Shows Rebound Could Be Years Away By Mark Shenk  Jan 14, 2015 8:00 AM GMT+0800; The last time excess supply caused a plunge in oil, it took almost five years for prices to recover......


Trees Under Water in Malaysia Fueling Rally in Palm Oil By Ranjeetha Pakiam  Jan 13, 2015 5:27 PM GMT+0800; .....The slump in crude-oil prices may erode the appeal of palm oil as a source of fuel. About 16 percent of the world crop is used to make biodiesel. Rising crude output and slowing demand sent prices down 52 percent in the past year in New York to $44.41 a barrel today, the lowest intraday price since 2009.... “When you’ve got an oil-price environment that I see, you can’t be bullish on any commodities,” said London-based Doug King, the chief investment officer at the Merchant Commodity Fund, which manages $260 million. Crude may drop below $40 as U.S. output compounds the surplus, he said.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/trees-under-water-in-malaysia-fueling-rally-in-palm-oil.html


13 January 2015: As oil slide continues, despondency on energy sector debt problems, US production shut down, across sector earnings cut gloom, fossil fuel riches naivety, Norway considers tapping reserves and call to revamp government spending. Canada tar sands output growth seen as robust.


The 10-Point: My Guide to The WSJ, 13 January 2015: The war of attrition among top oil-producing nations is far from over. Even as oil prices settled below $50 a barrel yesterday for the first time in nearly six years, our story looks at why oil-sands operators aren’t likely to shut off the tap any time soon. Yesterday major producer Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. became the latest to underscore the resilience of oil-sands growth. The company said lower oil prices will force it to trim investment on new projects and curtail its grow, but it still expects output to grow. “It’s not well understood just how robust the oil sands are. If you stopped expansion of the oil sands tomorrow, you would have no decline in the production base for decades,” the chief executive of one operator said. Meanwhile, oil prices continued to fall this morning after the United Arab Emirates’ oil minister said that OPEC would keep output unchanged, pushing the U.S. oil benchmark below the $45 a barrel mark. And energy-producing U.S. states are paring budget forecasts and planning spending cuts amid the plunge in prices.  


As Oil Slips Below $50, Canada Digs In for Long Haul By Chester Dawson  Jan. 12, 2015 9:04 p.m. ET Oil-Sands Operators, Seeing Long-Term Value, Aren’t Likely to Shut Off the Tap Any Time Soon; Canadian Natural will continue expanding production because it expects higher volume will cut operating expenses at its mainstay Horizon mine, currently at 37.13 Canadian dollars a barrel, by at least another 10 Canadian dollars a barrel.“A lot of the costs are fixed in nature,” Chief Financial Officer Corey Bieber said in an interview Monday. “You don’t necessarily increase your workforce in a corresponding ratio [with production]. If you can increase your denominator and manage your numerator effectively, you wind up with a lower cost per barrel.” http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-oil-slips-below-50-canada-digs-in-for-long-haul-1421114641?mod=djem10point





Brent Crude Settles Below $50 for First Time in Nearly Six Years; The global oil benchmark settled below $50 a barrel for the first time in nearly six years Monday as major banks continued to slash their forecasts, saying lower prices are needed to reduce global supplies.... Brent dropped $2.68, or 5.3%, to $47.43 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, the lowest settlement since March 2009. After dropping in half in 2014, Brent oil prices are already down 17% for the year, as robust global supply growth continues to outpace demand.... http://www.wsj.com/articles/brent-crude-falls-below-50-in-asian-trading-1421039495?mod=djemalertMARKET




source: Bloomberg.com 13 Jan 2015, 1.35pm Singapore

Headlines / snippets from Bloomberg.com:


Shale Drillers Can Brag About Their Holdings. Investors Ask: How's Your Debt?  By Oliver Renick and Isaac Arnsdorf  Jan 13, 2015 3:38 AM GMT+0800  U.S. shale drillers may tout how much oil they have in the ground or how cheaply they can get it out. For stock investors, what matters most is debt. The worst performers among U.S. oil producers in a Bloomberg index owe about 5.7 times more than they earn, before certain deductions, compared with 1.7 times for companies that have taken less of a hit. Operations, such as where the companies drill or how much oil versus gas they pump, matter less.... “With oil prices below $50 and approaching $40, we’re in survivor mode,” Steven Rees, who helps oversee about $1 trillion as global head of equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, said via phone. “The companies with the higher degrees of leverage have underperformed, and you don’t want to own those because there’s a fair amount of uncertainty as to whether they can repay that debt.” .... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-12/shale-debt-matters-most-to-stock-investors-as-oil-plunges.html


America's Going to Lose the Oil Price War by Leonid Bershidsky Jan 12, 2015 12:0 PM EST  The financial debacle that has befallen Russia as the price of Brent crude dropped 50 percent in the last four months has overshadowed the one that potentially awaits the U.S. shale industry in 2015. It's time to heed it, because Saudi Arabia and other major Middle Eastern oil producers are unlikely to blink and cut output, and the price is now approaching a level where U.S. production will begin shutting down..... http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-12/americas-going-to-lose-the-oil-price-war


Oil Whacks S&P 500 Earnings Growth By Lu Wang  Jan 13, 2015 5:41 AM GMT+0800   While stock investors wait for the benefits of cheaper oil to seep into the economy, all they can see lately is downside.  Forecasts for first-quarter profits in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have fallen by 6.4 percentage points from three months ago, the biggest decrease since 2009, according to more than 6,000 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Reductions spread across nine of 10 industry groups and energy companies saw the biggest cut..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-12/earnings-pessimism-jumps-as-oil-threatens-s-p-500-growth.html


Goldman Sees Need for $40 Oil as OPEC Cut Forecast Abandoned By Chou Hui Hong  Jan 12, 2015 6:20 PM GMT+0800  Goldman Sachs said U.S. oil prices need to trade near $40 a barrel in the first half of this year to curb shale investments as it gave up on OPEC cutting output to balance the market..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-12/goldman-sees-need-for-40-oil-as-forecast-for-opec-cut-abandoned.html


$50 Oil Kills Bonanza Dream That Made Greenlanders Millionaires By Peter Levring  Jan 12, 2015 7:00 AM GMT+0800 Greenland, an island that may be sitting on trillions of dollars of oil, has had to acknowledge that its dream of tapping into that wealth looks increasingly far-fetched. Back when oil was headed for $150 a barrel, Greenlanders girded for a production boom after inviting in some of the world’s biggest explorers, including Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) Now, with Brent crude dipping below $50 last week, Deputy Prime Minister Andreas Uldum says Greenland’s hope of growing rich quickly on fossil fuels was “naïve.” ... ://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-11/-50-oil-kills-bonanza-dream-that-made-greenlanders-millionaires.html


Oil Losses Force Norway to Consider Measures to Back Economy By Mikael Holter, Saleha Mohsin and Jonas Cho Walsgard  Jan 9, 2015 6:37 PM GMT+0800; Norway is considering tapping reserve funds to shield western Europe’s biggest oil producer from the worst slump in crude prices in more than half a decade.... Prime Minister Erna Solberg said the government is now “on alert” to respond to the rout. “If the economic situation requires it, we can react quickly,” she said yesterday at a conference in Oslo organized by Norway’s confederation of industry. Erna Solberg, Norway's Prime Minister, said her government is working on models that... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/norway-on-alert-as-oil-losses-have-government-exploring-options.html


Hayman’s Bass Sees Oil Slump Disciplining Petro-State Norway By Saleha Mohsin  Jan 8, 2015 5:20 PM GMT+0800  Hayman Capital Management founder and chief investment officer Kyle Bass said, Norway... Read More The oil rout that has dragged down Norway’s krone since June will ultimately discipline a government that has relied too much on its petro-dollars to finance expenditure. That’s according to Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management LP, who was in Oslo yesterday to attend a Skagen AS conference.... Norway “trades like an emerging market because of its dependence on crude,” Bass, one of the first hedge-fund managers to predict and make money on the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, said in an interview. “A traditional cleansing is a good thing in the long run, it keeps government spending in check. Politicians are going to have to figure out how to cut back on the spending that they shouldn’t have been doing in the first place.” .... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/hayman-s-bass-says-oil-plunge-will-discipline-petro-state-norway.html



12 Jan 2015: Palm oil on multi-month highs on supply - weather issues; Brent crude still languishes around $49.50



1 year price chart, source: http://www.mpob.gov.my/


VEGOILS-Palm oil hits 6-month high on tight supply, monsoon woes - By Anuradha Raghu RTRS 08-Jan-2015 18:14 (Updates prices); Palm rises to highest since July 11 on concerns over floods Heavy rain warning over Peninsular Malaysia upped to "orange stage" KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a third day to hit a near six-month high on Thursday, on fears that supplies of the tropical oil will be further tightened by another round of monsoon rains in the No.2 grower.... "Supply in the near term is tight. We don't know what the damage will be for January," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.... The trader added that until worries of floods ease, prices will likely remain propped up between 2,320 ringgit and 2,420 ringgit.....


Bloomberg - Russia Cut to One Step Above Junk by Fitch on Oil, Sanctions http://bloom.bg/1DH3hXw


Bloomberg - How OPEC Weaponized the Price of Oil Against U.S. Drillers http://bloom.bg/1BMPLQA

Former BP Gas Salesman Is Sorry About How Much Money He Made - Bloomberg View; http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-09/former-bp-gas-salesman-is-sorry-about-how-much-money-he-made

7 Jan 2015: Brent dips below $50



source: Bloomberg.com on 7 Jan 2015, 5pm, Singapore

7 Jan 2015: Prices extend drops, good for US and other economies, some soft commodities rally on weather, good times for asset investors over? Singapore (commodity) junk bond worries, Asian energy equities drop. Winners & losers of oil crash (Middle East a winner on reserves?).



source: Bloomberg.com on 7 Jan 2015, 906am, Singapore

Oil Extends Drop Below $48 as U.S. Stockpiles Seen Rising By Moming Zhou and Grant Smith  Jan 7, 2015 6:12 AM GMT+0800  Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Oil extended losses below $48 a barrel amid speculation that U.S. inventories will expand, deepening a global supply glut that’s driven prices to a five-year low. Futures declined for a fourth day. Stockpiles in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country probably rose by 700,000 barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed before a government report tomorrow.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/crude-holds-slump-to-50-as-global-supply-glut-seen-persisting.html


As Oil Drops Below $50, Can There Be Too Much of a Good Thing? By Peter Coy and Matthew Philips    January 06, 2015  Oil falls below $50 a barrel on Jan. 5, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunges nearly 330 points. Seems like an open-and-shut case that the price plunge is getting to be a problem. People remember that in 1998, a sharp decline in the price of oil contributed to a Russian default that rocked the global financial system. Not quite. Cheaper oil is still creating more winners than losers. Far more people live in oil-importing countries than live in oil-exporting countries. The U.S., for one, remains a net importer. The well-publicized travails of U.S. shale oil producers are small compared with the gains by American consumers and businesses that are paying less for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, and the like. With fuel prices down, people are driving more miles and buying more cars and trucks.... http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2015-01-06/oil-below-50-is-still-good-news?campaign_id=DN010615


Coffee With Sugar Rally on Brazil Concerns to Defy Oil Collapse By Luzi Ann Javier and Marvin G. Perez  Jan 7, 2015 2:39 AM GMT+0800  Defying the rout in oil prices, the coffee and sugar markets are rallying because of supply concerns in Brazil, the world’s top producer and exporter of the so-called soft commodities. Those raw materials helped prevent the Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 energy, agriculture and metal prices from slumping to a 12-year low amid a collapse in crude and fuel. The broad gauge has tumbled to the lowest since March 2009, and a drop of an additional 1.4 percent will send the measure to a level last seen in November 2002. In 2014, arabica coffee soared 50 percent, the most among index components, amid the most-severe drought in decades. On ICE Futures U.S. in New York, coffee posted the biggest two-day rally since April, and an explosion in sugar trading triggered a circuit breaker on the exchange after the price surged as much as 5.6 percent. The sweetener jumped the most in 31 months. Rain in Brazil will be below average in the next six to 10 days, MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland, forecasts.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/coffee-with-sugar-rally-on-brazil-concerns-to-defy-oil-collapse.html


Palm Oil Output Seen Slumping 20% After Malaysian Floods By Ranjeetha Pakiam  Dec 31, 2014 6:31 PM GMT+0800  Palm oil output in Malaysia will decline this month and next as severe flooding disrupts harvesting in the largest exporter after Indonesia, exacerbating a seasonal drop in production, according to RHB Investment Bank Bhd. Output may contract by as much as 20 percent in December from 1.75 million metric tons in November, according to Alvin Tai, an analyst at the bank who’s covered the plantation industry for 11 years. There’ll be a significant reduction in harvesting, he said by phone in Kuala Lumpur.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-30/palm-oil-output-may-slump-20-as-floods-hit-malaysia-rhb-says.html


Bill Gross Says the Good Times Are Over By Mary Childs  Jan 7, 2015 5:45 AM GMT+0800  Bill Gross, the former manager of the world’s largest bond fund, said prices for many assets will fall this year as record-low interest rates fail to restore sufficient economic growth. With global expansion still sputtering after years of interest rates near zero, investors will gradually seek alternatives to risky assets, Gross wrote today in an investment outlook for Janus Capital Group Inc. (JNS), where he runs the $1.2 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund. “When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes,” Gross, 70, wrote in the outlook. “The good times are over.” ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/gross-says-good-times-are-over-with-markets-set-to-fall.html



Singapore Private Bankers Wake Up to Junk Bond Risks as Cracks Emerge By David Yong and Christopher Langner  Jan 6, 2015 11:19 AM GMT+0800; Demand for higher returns in Singapore bonds from the city’s swelling private banking industry has brought with it greater risks.... Junk-rated companies in Singapore must find funds to repay $2.1 billion of debt this year, up from $1.7 billion in 2014 and $1.1 billion in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That accounts for 35 percent of all bonds maturing in Singapore in 2015. Wealthy clients of the island’s private banks snapped up 86 percent of the highest-yielding local bonds last year, the data show.... Halcyon Agri, which makes rubber for car tires, raised S$125 million in July selling 6.5 percent notes due 2019. Last month it sought the consent of bondholders to not comply with one of its interest-coverage ratios until the third quarter of 2015. Investors holding 82.8 percent indicated they’ll allow it, according to a Dec. 30 stock exchange filing.... Bonds of Swiber Holdings Ltd., an oil services company, are among the worst performing over the past month. Its S$130 million of 5.125 percent 2016 notes sold in May are trading at 90.5 percent of par from as high as 100.35 percent after issue..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/singapore-alert-to-risks-as-cracks-emerge-for-junk-asean-credit.html


Asian Stocks Extend Drop, Led by Energy Companies on Oil Plunge By Jonathan Burgos  Jan 7, 2015 8:10 AM GMT+0800; Asian stocks fell, after yesterday sinking the most in nine months, as U.S. equities extended declines and the slump in crude oil deepened. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) declined 0.3 percent to 134.57 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo, with energy companies dropping the most. The Asian gauge slumped 1.7 percent yesterday and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell for a fifth day, extending the longest losing streak in 13 months..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/asian-stocks-extend-drop-led-by-energy-companies-on-oil-plunge.html


How the Bear Market in Crude Oil Has Polluted Non-Energy Stocks By Michael P. Regan  Jan 7, 2015 1:41 AM GMT+0800; Perusing the list of the biggest stock-market losers since the price of oil peaked in June yields some predictable results.  You have your large-cap energy companies like Transocean Ltd., Denbury Resources Inc., Nabors Industries Ltd., Noble Corp. and Halliburton Co., all down at least 45 percent.  Yet mixed in with all the obvious ugliness are some names that bring to mind the question asked of Billy Joel by those drinkers at the piano bar, or perhaps even some of the wedding guests who watched him walk down the aisle with Christie Brinkley: Man, what are you doing here? The big bets on high energy prices made by companies like Ford Motor Co. (down 13 percent since oil peaked on June 20) or Tesla Motors Inc. (down 10 percent) or Boeing Co. (down 3.9 percent) jump immediately to mind.... Not so obvious, unless you follow the stock closely, is the investment made by Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), one of the regional lenders that tried to chase the fracking boom. (It’s down 12 percent since June 20.)  Fitch’s list of banks with high concentrations of loans to the industry is topped by BOK Financial Corp., which is down 13 percent since June 20.; Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc., down 16 percent; Hancock Holding Company, down 19 percent; Comerica Inc., down 14 percent; and Amergy Bank of Texas, a subsidiary of Zions Bancorp, which is down 13 percent.... Losses are even worse among the industrial companies that provide the services and sell the pipes, valves and assorted doodads used to pump oil and gas.... Morgan Stanley last month detailed stocks that stand to benefit from lower oil prices, such as airlines and consumer companies, and concluded cheaper fuel is a net benefit for the U.S. economy....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/how-the-bear-market-in-crude-oil-has-polluted-non-energy-stocks.html

The Biggest Winners and Unluckiest Losers of the Oil Crash  By Isaac Arnsdorf - Dec 4, 2014 6:25 AM GMT+0800; Winner: Ship Owners - Charter rates for oil tankers surged as China booked more cargoes and fuel costs dropped. Loser: Corporate Borrowers - The selloff in energy companies' debt is also leading investors to pull out of other junk bonds, sending yields to the highest in more than a year. Loser: Keystone XL Pipeline  - Cheaper oil challenges the economics of developing Canada's oil sands. Some say the industry has already moved on. Winner: Saudi Arabia - The desert kingdom flexed its muscle at November's OPEC meeting by overruling members, showing that it's still the boss. It needs about $97.50 a barrel to balance its budget, but it's got $736 billion banked up. Winner: China - Now the world's second-biggest importer, China is taking advantage of slumping prices to build up strategic stockpiles. Cheaper fuel could reverse China's slowing economy and make it easier for the central bank to cut interest rates. Winner: Ed Morse of Citigroup - Citigroup's head of commodities research said early and often that surging U.S. oil production would drive down prices. His prediction of $75 a barrel went further than other analysts. Now it seems quaint.  Loser: BP - The British oil giant said Dec. 10 it would write down about $1 billion as it overhauls operations through next year.... http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2014-12-03/the-biggest-winners-and-unluckiest-losers-of-the-oil-crash.html



6 Jan 2015: Brent drops toward $53, Euro under pressure, $20 cost for most of US, hedges help US producers, write downs loom, Australia mining towns gloom



source: Bloomberg.com, 6 Jan 2015, 8.45am Singapore


Note the 10 year price chart and the drop since recent peak versus price movement of big oil (example: Exxon Mobil Corp - 52 week high: 104.7600, Last close: 90.2900) and then note the cost of production of large oil corporations. Notably in most parts of the US, the average cost is $20 per barrel (see item immediately below dated 19 Dec). Other news links below.

Exxon Mobil Shows Why U.S. Oil Output Rises as Prices Plunge By Joe Carroll  Dec 19, 2014 5:40 AM GMT+0800; ... Existing wells remain profitable even as benchmark crude futures hover near the $55-a-barrel mark because operating costs going forward are usually $25 or less, Tom Petrie, chairman of Petrie Partners Inc., said in a Dec. 15 interview on the Bloomberg Surveillance television program.... That’s why prices that have tumbled 47 percent from this year’s peak on June 20 haven’t prompted any American oil producers to shut down wells, said Petrie, a U.S. Military Academy at West Point graduate who has advised Saudi Arabia, Alaska and the U.S. government on energy issues.... The average cost to operate an existing well in most parts of the U.S. “is about $20 a barrel,” Petrie said. “It might be $5 higher or it might be $5 lower, that’s the out-of-pocket costs that we’re talking about. Until you dip into that and start losing money on a cash basis day in, day out, you don’t think about shutting in” wells.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/exxon-mobil-shows-why-u-s-oil-output-rises-as-prices-plummet.html


Revamped U.S. oil hedges may test OPEC's patience By Lucas Iberico Lozada Mon Jan 5, 2015 1:10am EST NEW YORK (Reuters) - As a war of nerves between U.S. shale producers and Gulf powerhouses intensifies, OPEC's biggest members are counting down the months until their upstart rivals lose the one thing shielding them from crashing oil prices - hedges. They may need much more patience than they reckon, however, because those hedges are a moving target. Rather than wait for their price insurance to run out, many companies are racing to revamp their policies, cashing in well-placed hedges to increase the number of future barrels hedged, according to industry consultants, bankers and analysts familiar with the deals. OPEC officials hope that once U.S. oil companies get fully exposed to the impact of an over 50 percent slide in crude prices since last June, they will have to drill fewer new wells, causing U.S. production growth to stall and putting a floor under oil prices now testing $50 a barrel..... http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0KE0BX20150105?irpc=932


Oilfield Writedowns Loom as Market Collapse Guts Drilling Values By Joe Carroll  Jan 6, 2015 6:24 AM GMT+0800; Tumbling crude prices will trigger a flood of oilfield writedowns starting this month after industry returns slumped to a 16-year low, calling into question half a decade of exploration... With crude prices down more than 50 percent from their 2014 peak, fields as far-flung as Kazakhstan and Australia are no longer worth pumping, said a team of Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Alastair Syme. Companies on the hook for risky, high-cost projects that don’t make sense in a $50-a-barrel market include international titans such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and small wildcatters like Sanchez Energy Corp.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/oilfield-writedowns-loom-as-market-collapse-guts-drilling-values.html


Iran says Saudi Arabia should move to curb oil price fall

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0KB0HG20150102?irpc=932

Exclusive: Mexico's light crude, shunned for U.S. shale, sails east

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0K908Y20141231?irpc=932

Saudis Seen Giving Asia Smaller Oil Discounts on Signs of Demand; Saudi Arabia will probably offer smaller discounts to ship crude to Asia amid speculation demand will increase after benchmark prices dropped almost 50 percent last year.... The world’s biggest oil exporter will announce February official selling prices to buyers in Asia in coming days, after offering its Arab Light grade at the biggest discount in at least 14 years the previous month. OPEC’s largest producer may narrow the discount, according to 12 of 15 traders and refiners in a Bloomberg News ..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/saudis-seen-giving-asia-smaller-oil-discounts-on-signs-of-demand.html


Oil Rout Proving Worse Than Latest Norges Bank Forecast

One month after tumbling petroleum prices forced the central bank of western Europe’s biggest crude producer to cut interest rates, Governor Oeystein Olsen said oil’s subsequent slide has been even worse than expected.  “If oil prices stay at $55, at today’s level, then that’s clearly lower than what we based things on in our latest report,” Olsen said today in an interview after a speech in Oslo. “We will look at the development going forward now and come back with an evaluation of the oil price.....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/oil-rout-proving-worse-than-latest-norges-bank-forecast.html

Canada’s Richest Grain Family Betting on Rebound in Oil; A decade after expanding its grain business during a slump in prices, the Richardson family of Winnipeg, one of the richest in Canada, is making a similar bet on oil. With crude futures collapsing to the lowest in five years, the Richardson’s Tundra Oil & Gas unit last month agreed to buy 550 wells in Manitoba, part of a $410 million divestiture of Canadian assets by EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) Tundra’s biggest purchase ever will boost its output this year by one-third to 32,000 barrels a day......http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-04/canada-s-richest-grain-family-betting-on-rebound-in-oil.html


From boom to bust in Australia's mining towns - BBC News; http://m.bbc.com/news/world-australia-30584123


Euro Weakens to 2006 Low on Greece as Stocks, Oil Decline

The euro weakened to an almost nine-year low as a debate on Greece’s membership of the currency union deepened a selloff driven by central-bank stimulus. Stocks fell with bonds, while oil slid to its lowest level since 2009. Europe’s shared currency declined 0.8 percent to $1.1905 at 7:21 a.m. in New York, after touching its weakest level since March 2006. Greek notes resumed losses after a rally on Jan. 2. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.3 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures los t..... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-04/euro-extends-slide-as-japan-resumes-n-z-stocks-advance.html

'Grexit' Is Back: A Greek Exit From the Euro Raises Fears of Fiscal Contagion  By Simon Kennedy  Jan 5, 2015 9:59 PM GMT+0800; Mario Draghi’s July 2012 pledge to do “whatever it takes” to keep the euro intact has kept speculators at bay for almost three years. Bond yields fell from Dublin to Athens, giving governments room to cut budgets and start revamping their economies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/greek-euro-exit-risk-revived-as-merkel-bluff-overlooks-contagion.html

S&P 500 Heads Toward 4-Day Drop as Energy Shares Slump With Oil By Michelle F. Davis and Callie Bost  Jan 6, 2015 5:29 AM GMT+0800; Crude oil’s slide below $50 sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) to its biggest drop since October, as selling spread from the energy industry amid concern that cuts in capital spending will hurt earnings.

    

3 Jan 2015: USD at 11-year highs makes commodities more expensive


Stronger Dollar Crushes Arabica-Coffee, Raw-Sugar Markets - Arabica Coffee for Delivery in March Fell 3.3% to $1.6105 a Pound By Alexandra Wexler Updated Jan. 2, 2015 3:43 p.m. ET 

NEW YORK—A surging U.S. dollar weighed on the coffee and sugar markets on Friday, sending prices tumbling lower.... The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against 16 other currencies, jumped to an 11 ½ -year high on Friday. Dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive for buyers using other currencies when the greenback appreciates, which saps global demand.... The dollar’s rise to a near 10-year high against the Brazilian currency added to selling pressure for arabica coffee and sugar. Global production of both commodities is largely concentrated in Brazil, and the real’s weakness encouraged producers and exporters to sell their sugar and coffee abroad because they receive more back in their local currency for a crop sold abroad in U.S. dollars. http://www.wsj.com/articles/arabica-coffee-raw-sugar-start-2015-on-sour-note-1420211223

2 Jan 2015: Oil drops more, SWF vulture role?



source: Bloomberg.com 10.25pm Singapore

Oil Trades at 5 1/2-Year Low After Russia, Iraq Boost Supplies By Grant Smith  Jan 2, 2015 8:50 PM GMT+0800  Oil fell to the lowest since mid-2009 amid growing supply from Russia and Iraq and signs of manufacturing weakness in Europe and China. Futures headed for a sixth weekly loss in New York and London. Oil supplies in Iraq and Russia surged to the highest level in decades in December, according to data from both countries’ governments. Euro-area factory output expanded less than initially estimated in December. A manufacturing gauge in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, fell to the weakest level in 18 months, government data showed yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-02/oil-trims-6th-weekly-decline-as-collapse-of-2014-seen-excessive.html

Euro Drops to 2010 Low as S&P 500 Futures, Dollar Advance By Richard Frost and Stephen Kirkland  Jan 2, 2015 9:48 PM GMT+0800  The euro weakened to a 4 1/2-year low, while Spanish and Italian bonds rose amid speculation the European Central Bank will boost stimulus. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures signaled the gauge will rebound and the dollar gained http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-01/oil-advances-with-u-s-index-futures-as-australian-dollar-drops.html


Also, thanks to a reader for forwarding this article: Oil Prices: A True Black Swan or the Work of Vultures? by DR. KENT MOORS | published DECEMBER 18TH, 2014; First off, there were always indications on both the supply and demand side that matters were softening. Second, the OPEC non-decision on Thanksgiving to keep production levels unchanged was both predictable (from the Saudi perspective) and telegraphed in advance. Then, the orchestration of the talking heads commentary on the tube made the whole move “legitimate.”.... This is hardly something that emerged out of the blue. It’s also not the stuff of a true black swan.... Unless, of course, there is another motive at work and the black swan becomes a convenient cover.  Instead, this is what is really happening when it comes to oil prices.... When it comes to oil we are in a new age of massive short plays and swaps. The coordination of these moves is staggering, creating an impact that is immediate. Especially if there is a segue to important policy makers.... All of which has triggered a new development. SWFs have now become a player in the market, shorting the very product responsible for the funds to begin with.  In other words, some OPEC members are making money on both sides of the crude pricing curve.... Transacting the deals outside their own borders via SWFs, these countries are hedging the product in both directions. That means they are currently pushing the lower cost of crude forward by pairing shorts to actual oil consignments....


1 Jan 2015: Brent closed last year at $57.33


23 December 2014: OPEC pledges no production cuts, blames others for glut; China as emergency lender to Russia, Argentina, Venezuela.... OPEC is not driving prices, key concerns for 2015...


Saudis See Oil Recovery as U.A.E. Urges Non-OPEC Cuts By Mahmoud Habboush, Wael Mahdi and Anthony DiPaola  Dec 22, 2014 7:35 PM GMT+0800;  Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reiterated pledges to keep pumping the same amount of crude, blaming non-OPEC producers for the glut of oil that’s driven prices to the lowest in five years.... Suppliers from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should cut "irresponsible" output, U.A.E. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in Abu Dhabi yesterday. Even if non-OPEC producers were to offer cuts, OPEC probably wouldn’t follow suit, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said. The two countries account for about 40 percent of OPEC supply.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-21/non-opec-producers-called-on-to-cut-oil-output-amid-oversupply.html


Ruble Swap Shows China Challenging IMF as Emergency Lender By Ye Xie  Dec 23, 2014 12:06 PM GMT+0800; China is stepping up its role as the lender of last resort to some of the world’s most financially strapped countries.... Chinese officials signaled Saturday that they are willing to expand a $24 billion currency swap program to help Russia weather the worst economic crisis since the 1998 default. China has provided $2.3 billion in funds to Argentina since October as part of a currency swap, and last month it lent $4 billion to Venezuela, whose reserves cover just two years of debt payments.... By lending to nations shut out of overseas capital markets, Chinese President Xi Jinping is bolstering the country’s influence in the global economy and cutting into the International Monetary Fund’s status as the go-to financier for governments in financial distress. While the IMF tends to demand reforms aimed at stabilizing a country’s economy in exchange for loans, analysts speculate that China’s terms are more focused on securing its interests in the resource-rich countries...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/yuan-ruble-swap-shows-china-challenging-imf-as-emergency-lender.html

What’s Next for World Oil as Lower Prices Extend Into ‘15  By Isaac Arnsdorf  Dec 23, 2014 1:00 PM GMT+0800; The oil price decline of 2014 upended the geopolitical chessboard. Worth watching in 2015 will be who can recover and dominate play -- OPEC, Vladimir Putin or U.S. shale drillers.

Oil’s international benchmark price dropped as much as 49 percent in 2014. Those looking for a quick rebound may be disappointed, as world consumption growth slowed to the least since 2009, U.S. companies pumped more than they have since the 1980s and a price war broke out among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.... “It’s a turning point in the way people perceive OPEC, that this so-called cartel is not really driving prices,” said Jeff Colgan, a professor at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Studies who researches the geopolitics of energy. “The real story is going to be about the fracking industry. How much pain can North American producers take?” Here are five concerns about oil markets for 2015............
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/what-s-next-for-world-oil-as-lower-prices-extend-into-15.html

Billionaire Shale Pioneer Cuts Spending 41% on Oil Crash  By Bradley Olson and Joe Carroll  Dec 23, 2014 8:38 AM GMT+0800; Billionaire Harold Hamm, whose early adoption of shale drilling in North Dakota helped usher in a U.S. energy renaissance, plans to cut spending by 41 percent at his company after the plunge in oil prices.... Continental Resources Inc. and other U.S. producers can adjust quickly to the crude collapse and will be able to withstand the downturn better than many producing countries, which face economic “ruin,” Hamm said in an interview.... “The oil and gas industry has lowered the cost of gasoline to consumers in this country,” Hamm, chairman and chief executive officer of Continental, said yesterday. “It’s been good for America, this increase in supplies that we have here. We don’t want to see it all go for naught.”....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/continental-resources-cuts-spending-41-on-plunging-oil-price.html

17 December 2014 (evening): Ruble troubles, Russia and OPEC to maintain supply, US talks exports, US cuts GDP link with oil, Petrobras cash crunch, Norway krone drops, palm oil drops with oil slide


Ruble Trouble by The 10-Point: My Guide to The WSJ, 17 Dec 2014; Russia’s beleaguered currency was volatile in early trading today after the country’s Finance Ministry announced plans to begin selling its excess foreign-exchange holdings. We report that the plunging ruble is reawakening fears of the kind of financial crisis Vladimir Putin  has sought to leave behind. Moscow residents have rushed to buy big-ticket items and swapped rubles for dollars and euros, signaling a new feeling of vulnerability among Russians and a fresh challenge to their leader. We also find that global banks are curtailing the flow of cash to Russian entities, and the ruble’s selloff has deepened concerns for European companies exposed to the Russian market. A Pimco bond fund was also among the victims, after stumbling over a large bet on bonds issued by Russian corporations. Meanwhile, selling eased in Asia this morning after falling oil prices and worries about tighter U.S. monetary policy battered emerging markets earlier in the week. Investors are now looking to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy statement for cues.


Oil Trades Near 5-Year Low as Russia Echoes OPEC Output Policy  By Heesu Lee and Rupert Rowling  Dec 17, 2014 8:26 PM GMT+0800; Output from Russia, the world’s largest crude producer, will be similar to this year’s...Oil traded near a five-year low in New York as Russia reiterated that it will keep crude production steady next year, echoing OPEC’s strategy of refraining from curbing supply to tackle a global surplus.... Futures fell as much as 2.4 percent after sliding below $54 a barrel yesterday for the first time since May 2009. Output from Russia, the world’s largest crude producer, will be similar to this year’s 10.6 million barrels a day, according to Energy Minister Alexander Novak. Iran is said to be offering shipments to Asia at the deepest discount in at least 14 years, according to four people with knowledge of the decision. Iraq may revisit its oil-production plans, the country’s Deputy Prime Minister said today in London.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-17/oil-trades-near-5-year-low-as-russia-mirrors-opec-output-policy.html


U.S. Talking Oil Exports Just When World Needs It Least By Dan Murtaugh and Lynn Doan  Dec 17, 2014 12:09 PM GMT+0800 ; The U.S. Congress is talking about allowing unfettered oil exports for the first time in almost four decades. Its timing couldn’t be worse.... There’s space in the global market for 1 million to 1.5 million barrels a day of U.S. crude if the ban vanishes, Energy Information Administration chief Adam Sieminski told a congressional subcommittee at a Dec. 11 hearing. That would be less than 2 percent of worldwide demand. With prices sliding amid a glut, the figure is bound to be even smaller, according to consultants including Wood Mackenzie Ltd...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-17/u-s-talking-oil-exports-just-when-world-needs-it-least.html

Bloomberg slideshow - America is Shaking off its Addiction to Oil: http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2014-america-shakes-off-oil-addiction/


Petrobras Said to Cut Exploration Spending in Cash Crunch  By Sabrina Valle and Leonardo Silva  Dec 17, 2014 12:44 AM GMT+0800 ; Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4), the biggest oil producer in ultra-deep waters, is curbing refining and exploration spending in response to the collapse in prices and difficulties tapping debt markets during a corruption probe, said two people with direct knowledge of the matter.... The state-run oil company known as Petrobras plans to freeze investments in the Premium I and Premium II refineries in northeastern Brazil and sell assets to protect its cash position, said one of the people. The exploration cuts will focus on projects that are behind schedule, they said. Both asked not to be named because the information isn’t public.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/petrobras-said-to-cut-exploration-spending-in-cash-crunch.html


Oil Shocks Norway’s Krone as Swedish Currency Rises to Parity By Lucy Meakin  Dec 17, 2014 12:33 AM GMT+0800; As the smaller economy of the two Nordic nations, Norwegians have long taken pride in their currency’s pre-eminence over the Swedish counterpart. Not to mention the cheap shopping across the border it has allowed.... That all came to an end today as the currency joined the Russian ruble in oil-induced tumble. The krone, likened to an emerging market currency, declined to parity with the Swedish krona for the first time since 2000.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/norway-s-krone-slides-to-parity-with-krona-as-oil-prices-plunge.html



Malaysian palm oil slides for 3rd-straight day on crude oil slide Wednesday, 17 December 2014

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a third day on Tuesday and slide to their weakest in nearly two weeks, as crude deepened its sharp drop and volatility in emerging Asian markets turned investors wary.... Brent crude fell as low as $59.02, its weakest level since May 2009, while U.S. crude was down $1.60 at $54.31 a barrel, extending a 6-month selloff as slowing Chinese factory activity and weakening emerging-market currencies added to concerns about demand.   
Traders said while the palm market has been supported over the past weeks on hopes that weakening production will help shrink inventories, this week's turmoil across equity markets and steep losses in crude could trigger more selling... The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell to a Dec. 3 low of 2,114 ringgit in afternoon trade, before settling down 2.4 percent at 2,120 ringgit ($608) per tonne by Tuesday's close...." http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/12/17/Palm-down-more-on-crude-oil-slide/?style=biz


17 December 2014 (morning): Brent below $60, Russia, US-China role reversal, Roubini's macro themes for 2015




source: Bloomberg.com, 17 Dec 2014, 9am Singapore
Note: At one point, yesterday evening, we note 3.5% fall for Brent on the day

Here's Why the Russian Ruble Is Collapsing; The Russian economy has been in trouble for months, but last night, things got absurdly bad. The value of the ruble dropped as much as 19 percent in the last 24 hours, the worst single-day drop for the ruble in 16 years. Now Russians are reportedly bum-rushing malls to swap cash for washing machines, TVs, or laptops—anything that seems as if it might hold value better than paper money, whose worth is evaporating in real time. The political and economic forces sending Russia into a downward spiral are complex. Here's what you need to know.

Russia's economy has been hurt by two big things: the falling price of oil and economic sanctions. (Remember Crimea?) The oil and gas industry generates about half of Russia's revenue, so when a combination of the shale boom in the U.S. and weaker demand worldwide pushed the price from $110 per barrel earlier this year to $60, Russia got hammered. The sanctions imposed by Europe and the U.S., designed to punish Russia's companies for President Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine, have hurt, too. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-16/no-caviar-is-not-getting-cheaper-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-russian-ruble-collapse?campaign_id=DN121614

U.S.-China Economic Role Reversal Roils Emerging Markets  By Simon Kennedy  Dec 17, 2014 1:44 AM GMT+0800; The world economy’s two biggest tectonic plates are shifting, setting off the frictions increasingly evident in financial markets and global capitals.... The U.S. is accelerating and China is cooling, marking a reversal of trends that followed the financial crisis. As a result, oil is slumping as American supply rises and Chinese demand falls; capital is fleeing emerging markets; the dollar is surging and the influence of the BRICs is on the wane... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/economic-tensions-roil-emerging-markets-as-u-s-china-switch.html


Asia Isn't Ready for a China Crash by William Pesek  Dec 16, 2014 8:00 PM EST; "As China's first full year of rebalancing draws to close, how has President Xi Jinping done? Reasonably well, it seems. Growth appears to be moderating gently, stocks continue to soar and most economists still foresee a soft landing rather than market-shaking meltdown for the world’s second-largest economy.

Next year, however, Xi's team will have to get to the hard stuff: taming an opaque, unwieldy financial system. My question isn’t so much whether China will or won’t crash. It’s whether the rest of Asia is ready for the possibility of 5 percent or even 4 percent Chinese growth, as predicted by pundits like Larry Summers and Marc Faber. It’s almost certainly not.... Historically, hedge funds betting against China haven't done very well. This week, in fact, the government is expected to revise 2013 GDP figures upward by as much as $275 billion, which on paper should help meet its target of 7.5 percent growth for the year.... For anyone who thinks China is operating even close to that number, though, I have two words: iron ore. Even more than the precipitous drop in oil, the halving of prices for these pivotal rocks and minerals -- as well as a 44 percent plunge in oil and tumble in coal and other commodities -- suggests that China may be braking rapidly.... http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-17/asia-needs-to-prepare-better-for-possible-china-slowdown

The Year Ahead: Roubini's Top 10 Macro Themes; We recently laid out the top 10 themes that we believe will define the global economy in 2015, exploring how possible scenarios will unfold and the potential risks to our baseline views. Key themes to watch for include:

1.Global Growth Is Battered and Bruised, but Unbroken (Thanks to the U.S.)
2.China Is Slowing Far Faster Than Consensus and Heading for a Bumpy Landing
3.Europe Faces a Challenging Year, With Politics a Key Risk
4.Oil (and Commodity) Glut: Oil Weak, Metals Worse—Producers Hit, but Good for Growth and Inflation
5.DM Inflation: 'Still No Bark' as Disinflation Reigns
6....

16 December 2014: UAE sees OPEC output hold even at $40. Commodity contagion, currencies and emerging markets hit in echoes of 1998 crisis? Petrobras scandal, deals and capex cuts in the oil rout.



source: Bloomberg.com on 16 Dec 2014, 1015am, Singapore


Bloomberg - U.A.E. Sees OPEC Output Unchanged Even If Oil Drops to $40 http://bloom.bg/1BKaXtW

Bloomberg - Oil Storm Has Texas Wildcat Veterans Warning Bakken Rookies to Take Cover http://bloom.bg/16nxvDY

Russian Central Bank Raises Key Rate to 17% from 10.5%; Russia's Central Bank, in a bid to stem a sharp decline in the ruble, raised its key interest rate to 17% from 10.5%. Earlier Monday, Russia's currency lost more than one-tenth of its value, collapsing to a record low and raising fears that the Kremlin wouldn't be able to stop the slide as the price for oil, its main export, also continued to fall.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-central-bank-raises-key-rate-to-17-1418682581?mod=djemalertMARKET

Bloomberg - 1998 Comes Calling in Currency and Credit Plunges From Russia to Venezuela http://bloom.bg/1zXlVu6

Bloomberg - Rupiah at ’98 Low Defies Logic for Best Forecaster: Asean Credit http://bloom.bg/16oTc6t

Petrobras- Coming down with a bump, More problems are revealed at Brazil's oil giant; Dec 14th 2014  | SÃO PAULO | Business and finance; "NOT long ago Petrobras was the pride of Brazil. It was steward of the biggest offshore oil discovery so far this century and the subject of a record-breaking $70-billion public share offering in 2010. It had become the technological leader among oil giants at finding new reserves. But now the state-controlled behemoth is sinking into a hole as fathomless as its deep-sea oil wells. Every day brings news that ranges from bad to dreadful, much of it the result of a 10 billion reais ($3.7 billion) bribery scheme that was recently unearthed by Brazil’s federal police, aided by the press...." http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21636420-more-problems-are-being-revealed-brazils-oil-giant-coming-down-bump


Repsol Readies Bid for Talisman Energy; Repsol is preparing an $8.3 billion bid for Canada's struggling Talisman Energy, a takeover that would roughly double the Spanish company's oil output right away and boost its potential for further expansion. The Madrid company's board met Monday evening and unanimously approved the offer, which has an enterprise value of $13 billion including debt. Repsol said it was preparing to offer $8 a share for Talisman, a significant premium over the Calgary-based company's closing price Friday. http://www.wsj.com/articles/talisman-confirms-repsol-talks-1418656109?mod=djemalertDEALS



Share price chart comparison for Exxon, Petrobras, SembCorp Marine (among other things selling oil rigs to Petrobras and others), and Sapura Kencana (key Malaysia oil & gas sector services provider, a sector now facing capex cuts by Petronas)
source: Bloomberg.com on 16 Dec 2014, 1015am, Singapore
note: Start date of chart is in May 2012. 30 October 2014 is marked, being approximate date of Khor Reports' last review of these relative equity prices



13 December 2014: Brent $61.85 shakes equity and credit markets. Shale oil's market disruptive effect and 1930s history


Brent at $61.85. From scanning Bloomberg news on this you can see demand destruction worries hitting equities, bond market shifting to safety, China stockpiles expected as many.VLCCs head it's way and chartists seeking a bottom as the price plunge breaches many indicators. Demand forecasts were also cut. ouch.


The Relentless Production of Shale Oil Is Breaking OPEC’s Neck By Peter Coy and Matthew Philips    December 11, 2014; "The world’s biggest oil companies faced ruin in the summer of 1931. Crude prices had plummeted. Wildcatters were selling oil from the bonanza East Texas field for a nickel a barrel, cheaper than a bowl of chili. On Aug. 17, Governor Ross Sterling declared a state of insurrection in four counties and sent 1,100 National Guard troops to shut down the fields and bring order to the market. A month later the Railroad Commission of Texas handed out strict production quotas.... That heavy-handed intervention in the free market was remarkable enough. Even more remarkable was who pulled it off. The person in charge of shutting down the wildcatters, National Guard Brigadier General Jacob Wolters, was the general counsel of Texas Co., an ancestor of Chevron (CVX). And the Texas governor who ordered Wolters in was a past president of Humble Oil and Refining, a forerunner of ExxonMobil (XOM). Big Oil played hardball in those days.... History is repeating itself, with a twist. The stressed-out giants of today are Saudi Arabia and its fellows in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The descendants of the 1930s wildcatters are today’s producers of oil from shale, who are driving down the world price of crude by flooding the market with millions of barrels of new oil each day...."

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-11/shale-oils-relentless-production-is-breaking-opecs-neck?campaign_id=DN121214

12 December 2014: In a parallel to the oil & gas market share grab, iron ore biggies raise output to shutter less competitive miners?


Roubini Global Sees Sub-$60 Iron Ore Amid Massive Surplus By Jasmine Ng  Dec 11, 2014 8:03 PM GMT+0800; "Iron ore may drop to less than $60 a metric ton next year as the largest mining companies press on with raising supply, deepening a glut just as demand growth in China falters, according to Roubini Global Economics LLC.... The commodity will average $65 a ton in 2015, with weaker prices in the first half before a recovery as some higher-cost capacity is closed, Director of Commodities Helen Henton said in an interview. While producers won’t fare well in an environment of falling prices, it does make sense for low-cost suppliers to keep expanding in the expectation that less-competitive mines will be shuttered.... The biggest producers including BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA invested billions of dollars to increase output, pushing the market into oversupply and spurring a 48 percent tumble in prices this year. A slowing Chinese economy may reduce consumption growth in iron ore, used to make steel for buildings and appliances. The raw material will extend losses as supply growth outpaces demand, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., which this week cut forecasts through 2017..." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/roubini-global-sees-iron-ore-sinking-to-less-than-60-on-surplus.html





11 December 2014: Oil plunge contagion and banks trading revenue? Investors seeking bottom. Biodiesel demand worry.



source: Bloomberg.com 10.26am Singapore time


U.S. Getting Rid of Oil Addiction as Price Plummets in Glut By Lynn Doan and Dan Murtaugh  Dec 11, 2014 8:18 PM GMT+0800 ; "The U.S. is producing the most oil in 31 years, economic growth is picking up and crude prices are plunging. So why is Americans’ use of petroleum waning? As the U.S. moves closer and closer to energy independence, greater fuel efficiency, changing demographics and an increase in renewables are altering the dynamic that in the past would have seen demand for gasoline climbing. Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., grew at a 2.4 percent pace in the third quarter from the year-earlier period. Oil consumption fell 0.3 percent, government data show... “Oil demand and GDP growth used to go hand in hand,” Christopher Knittel, a professor of applied economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management, said by phone on Dec. 8 from Cambridge, Massachusetts. “Now, they’re in some ways almost independent of each other because of investments in fuel economy that tended to break the link.” ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/america-getting-rid-of-oil-addiction-as-price-plummets-amid-glut.html



Bloomberg - Oil Plunge Rips Through Markets as Investors Seek Bottom http://bloom.bg/1x3K4zt


Bloomberg - JPMorgan Sees ‘High Teens’ Decline in Trading Revenue http://bloom.bg/1ulzKgg


CIMB - Plantation update (MPOB stats for Nov) - Biodiesel demand risk; released today this notes that "we are concerned about biodiesel demand risk due to the sharp fall in crude oil prices, which makes biodiesel conversion uneconomical"



Roubini Global Economics Forecasts China’s 2016 Growth at 5.4%; 10 Dec 2014; Following the recent release of a two-part China Trip Report by Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Don Hanna (Managing Director, Asia) and Daili Wang (Senior Economist) comes our latest China Outlook, in which we have further revised down our 2016 growth forecast for the economy to 5.4%. Lower investment (especially in residential construction), weakening domestic demand and the implementation of economic reforms will be key headwinds in the coming years, with the resulting friction taking a toll on GDP growth, Chinese equities and commodity prices.


Oil Prices Fall as U.S. Inventories Show Surprise Gain; 10 Dec 2014; Oil prices took another dive Wednesday on a U.S. government report showing a surprise increase in the country's crude stockpiles. The weekly reading on U.S. oil supplies signals a potential deepening of a global glut that has sent crude-oil prices plunging more than 40% in nearly six months.  The benchmark U.S. oil price recently was 4% lower at $61.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. crude supplies rose by 1.5 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 5, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Analysts expected supplies to fall by 2.7 million barrels.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-oil-prices-continue-to-fall-on-tepid-demand-ample-supply-1418209538?mod=djemalertMARKET



Yesterday, before last night's rout:


(BN) Energy Insiders See ‘Fire Sale,’ Buy Most Shares Since 2012; The rout in energy stocks reminds Tim Rochford of something else he’s seen in Texas. “What happened is almost like a herd of cattle, one cow turns left, all the cows follow it and it’s a stampede,” said the 68-year-old co-founder of Midland-based Ring Energy Inc., one of 118 industry executives who bought shares of their own companies in the last month amid the worst losses since 2008. “This is an absolute fire sale,” he said. “It’s an overreaction and the result is it’s oversold.” ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/energy-insiders-see-fire-sale-buy-most-shares-since-12.html


(BN) Oil’s Slump Puts Canada Acquisitions Streak on Ice; The rapid decline in global oil prices is setting the stage for a long dance between buyers and sellers in Canada’s energy industry.

The rout put a chill on an oil and gas acquisition market that saw about $39 billion of deals this year and is leading sellers like Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (PWT) to consider waiting for a rebound. Highly indebted Canadian oil and natural gas producers may not be able to afford that luxury, and suiters such as Crescent Point Energy Corp. (CPG) Chief Executive Off ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/oil-s-slump-puts-canada-aquistions-streak-on-ice.html

Oil Drop Pressures Crude-Producing Countries, Energy Firms - Oil Prices Extend Losses, Hitting Five-Year Lows  By Nicole Friedman; Oil prices dropped sharply Monday to fresh five-year lows, putting additional pressure on countries that rely on oil revenue and on energy companies that are trying to calibrate their investment plans.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-drop-pressures-crude-producing-countries-energy-firms-1418065427?mobile=y&mg=reno64-wsj


From The Economist: The new economics of oil: Sheikhs v shale; The economics of oil have changed. Some businesses will go bust, but the market will be healthier; Dec 6th 2014  | From the print edition; "THE official charter of OPEC states that the group’s goal is “the stabilisation of prices in international oil markets”. It has not been doing a very good job. In June the price of a barrel of oil, then almost $115, began to slide; it now stands close to $70. This near-40% plunge is thanks partly to the sluggish world economy, which is consuming less oil than markets had anticipated, and partly to OPEC itself, which has produced more than markets expected. But the main culprits are the oilmen of North Dakota and Texas. Over the past four years, as the price hovered around $110 a barrel, they have set about extracting oil from shale formations previously considered unviable. Their manic drilling—they have completed perhaps 20,000 new wells since 2010, more than ten times Saudi Arabia’s tally—has boosted America’s oil production by a third, to nearly 9m barrels a day (b/d). That is just 1m b/d short of Saudi Arabia’s output. The contest between the shalemen and the sheikhs has tipped the world from a shortage of oil to a surplus...." http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21635472-economics-oil-have-changed-some-businesses-will-go-bust-market-will-be


8 December 2014: Lower oil prices to boost global growth: Oil investors to lose trillions? US drillers argue for exports.


Many of the world’s top policy makers are betting that plummeting oil prices will lead to a boost in global growth. Our story looks at why prices are dipping and how they will affect the world economy. Falling energy prices are clearly hurting major oil exporters that rely heavily on petroleum revenues. But for major oil importers such as Japan, Italy and Germany, the International Monetary Fund calculates that the price plunge since June could add nearly a percentage point of gross domestic product to their economies. “There will be winners and losers, but on a net-net basis, it’s good news for the global economy,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told me at the Journal’s CEO Council annual meeting last week. Whether the recent tumble is driven more by a supply glut or a drop in demand could determine the direction of the global economy in the coming year, we note. But while much of the world will benefit from cheaper oil, there is also the risk of a negative shock—as producers’ problems could spill over into financial instability. And revised figures overnight from Japan that showed a sharper drop in output in the third quarter than previously reported underscore the depth of the hole in which some countries find themselves before they see the benefits of lower oil costs..... Falling Oil Prices Spur New Bets on Global Economic Growth - Policy Makers Shrug Off Concerns That Tumbling Oil Costs Are Harbinger of Slowdown By Ian Talley;

http://www.wsj.com/articles/falling-oil-prices-spur-new-bets-on-global-economic-growth-1418001937?mod=djem10point

Bloomberg - Oil Investors at Brink of Losing Trillions of Dollars in Assets. Gore: It's That Road Runner Moment http://bloom.bg/1yzJtn6


Bloomberg - Oil Drop Gives U.S. Drillers Argument to End Export Ban http://bloom.bg/1ykazfs



5 December 2014: price war, US shale boom, sub-$50 at well head


Oil Speculators (Mostly) Saw the Massive Price Drop Coming By Matthew Philips      December 03, 2014; "Since June, speculators have dumped the equivalent of 500 million barrels of oil onto the futures market. Among other consequences, they are now insufferable at dinner parties... The drop in oil prices has been stunning, with both U.S. and international crude pushing a 40 percent decline since June. Attention so far has been on supply and demand getting out of whack: The world has more oil than it actually needs, with various estimates of the surplus falling anywhere from 700,000 to more than 1 million barrels of daily production.... The U.S. is mostly to blame. The shale boom has poured an extra 4 million barrels of oil into the world since 2008. That helped the market weather chaos elsewhere, keeping oil prices remarkably flat. But the trend has been clear for a while now, and plenty of smart analysts have been talking for more than a year about the potential for much lower prices...." http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-03/oil-speculators-mostly-saw-the-massive-price-drop-coming?campaign_id=DN120314


Brent Drops From 4-Year Low as Saudi Discounts Deepen Price War  By Ben Sharples  Dec 5, 2014 10:22 AM GMT+0800; "Brent extended losses from a four-year low as Saudi Arabia offered customers in Asia record discounts on its crude, bolstering speculation it’s defending market share. West Texas Intermediate dropped in New York.... Futures fell as much as 0.7 percent in London and are headed for a second weekly decline. State-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co. cut its differential for Arab Light sales to Asia next month to $2 a barrel below a regional benchmark, according to a company statement. That’s the lowest in at least 14 years. The kingdom doesn’t want to subsidize Iran, Iraq and Venezuela and is willing to let the market decide prices, said Daniel Yergin, an energy analyst and Pulitzer Prize-winning author... Crude slumped 18 percent last month as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries maintained its output quota, letting prices decrease to a level that may slow U.S. production. Saudi Arabia has no price target and will let the market decide at what level oil should trade for now, said a person familiar with its policy... “It seems what the Saudis want, the Saudis are going to get,” Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, said by e-mail today. “We’re going to see prices continue to be under pressure. It is still game on.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-05/wti-trades-near-5-year-low-as-saudi-discount-deepens-price-war.html

Sub-$50 Oil Surfaces in North Dakota Amid Regional Discounts By Dan Murtaugh  Dec 4, 2014 11:26 PM GMT+0800; "Oil market analysts are debating if oil will fall to $50. In North Dakota, prices are already there. Crude sold at the wellhead in the Bakken shale region in North Dakota fell to $49.69 a barrel on Nov. 28, according to the marketing arm of Plains All American (PAA) Pipeline LP. That’s down 47 percent from this year’s peak in June, and 29 percent less than the $70.15 paid for Brent, the global benchmark.... The cheaper price for North Dakota crude underscores how geographic and logistical hurdles can amplify the stress that plunging futures prices have put on drillers in new shale plays that have helped push U.S. oil production to the highest level in 31 years. Other booming areas such as the Niobrara in Colorado and the Permian in Texas have also seen large discounts to Brent and U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate.... “You have gathering fees, trucking, terminaling, pipeline and rail fees,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston, said Dec. 2. “If you’re selling at the wellhead, you’re getting a very low number relative to WTI.” ..... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/sub-50-oil-surfaces-in-north-dakota-as-regional-discounts-swell.html


20 November 2014: Palm oil price - Brent crude and Indonesia biodiesel mandate outlook


Palm hits 5 week low as crude drops, biggest weekly drop in 3 Friday, 28 November 2014 18:22 Posted by Shoaib-ur-Rehman Siddiqui KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in more than five weeks on Friday and recorded their biggest weekly drop in three, dragged down by steep losses in crude oil after OPEC decided against curbing output. Malaysian palm prices may drop to 1,740 ringgit a tonne next year if Brent crude slides to $60 a barrel, industry analyst James Fry warned at a palm oil industry meet in Indonesia on Friday... Additionally, any recovery in palm futures over the next year will hinge on Indonesia's biodiesel mandate, vegetable oil analyst Dorab Mistry said in the same palm oil meet.... Looking ahead, palm prices are expected to average 2,200-2,500 ringgit per tonne from now until June, said a senior official from Malaysia's Sime Darby Bhd , the world's top oil palm planter by land size. Copyright Reuters, 2014

http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/asia/207554-palm-hits-5-week-low-as-crude-drops-biggest-weekly-drop-in-3.html

Indonesia’s ‘Toothless Mandate’ for Biofuel Hurting Palm By Ranjeetha Pakiam and Yoga Rusmana  Nov 28, 2014 7:31 PM GMT+0800  Biodiesel policies in Indonesia will determine the direction of palm oil prices in the next 12 months as output climbs to a record in the biggest producer, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd. The government should impose financial penalties for non-compliance with its mandate, Mistry said in remarks prepared for a conference in Bandung today. Failure to enforce the rules will mean that palm will continue to trade between 2,200 ringgit ($652) a metric ton and 2,300 ringgit, he said.... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-28/indonesia-s-toothless-mandate-for-biofuel-seen-hurting-palm.html


28 November 2014: OPEC keeps production up and oil prices drop


OPEC Fails to Take Action to Ease Glut as Crude Plunges By Wael Mahdi, Golnar Motevalli and Grant Smith  Nov 28, 2014 7:00 AM GMT+0800; "OPEC took no action to ease a global oil-supply glut, resisting calls from Venezuela that the group needs to stem the rout in prices. Futures slumped the most in more than three years... The group maintained its collective production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, Ali Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, said yesterday after the 12 nations met in Vienna. Brent crude dropped as much as 8.4 percent in London, extending this year’s decline to 34 percent...." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/opec-leaves-output-ceiling-unchanged-at-30-million-barrels.html



source: Bloomberg.com, accessed 7.30am Bandung time


At GAPKI's Bandung conference this afternoon, Dr James Fry of LMC International (yes, where I work) will be talking about the energy sector prices in relation to palm oil prices. Energy sector cost of production indicators will also be referred to. That will be worth checking out.



17 November 2014: OPEC's most difficult meeting this century and Halliburton-Baker Hughes deal


The 10-Point: My Guide to The WSJ, 17 November 2014 - A Cartel Divided:  As oil prices fall further, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries knows it must cut production. But it isn’t clear whether its members will agree. Our story examines oil-market dynamics and the issues that underlie the commodity’s recent fall. We find that, according to officials and executives, Saudi Arabia doubts that other OPEC members would live up to a collective commitment to cut output. While such a move could boost prices, we note that it would also rob members of revenue. It’s unclear how long vulnerable OPEC economies could afford to limit production. Meanwhile, failure to broker a deal could weaken the group’s already-subsiding influence over global prices. OPEC members are expected to meet in Vienna later this month. “The upcoming OPEC meeting is going to be the most difficult one during this century,” said a former senior adviser to Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister.  http://tk.wsjemail.com/track?type=click&enid=ZWFzPTImbXNpZD0xJmF1aWQ9Jm1haWxpbmdpZD01NTYyMzMzJm1lc3NhZ2VpZD04Njg5MDAmZGF0YWJhc2VpZD02ODIwMDAmc2VyaWFsPTMzODE5MzY2JmVtYWlsaWQ9eXVsZW5na0BnbWFpbC5jb20mdXNlcmlkPXl1bGVuZ2tAZ21haWwuY29tJnRhcmdldGlkPSZmbD0mZXh0cmE9TXVsdGl2YXJpYXRlSWQ9JiYm&&&960042&&&http://online.wsj.com/articles/falling-oil-prices-test-opec-unity-1416188605?mod=djem10point


Big Oil Deals Return as Halliburton Moves First  By Brooke Sutherland  Nov 17, 2014 8:50 PM GMT+0800; "Halliburton Co. (HAL)’s deal for Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) may be just the start of big energy takeovers as oil prices slump... Crude has plunged to a more than four-year low amid a U.S. supply glut. That’s making top energy companies, from equipment makers to oil explorers, cheaper for buyers that have the capital to survive and the confidence to strike. Halliburton, a $47 billion provider of oilfield services and equipment, approached Baker Hughes about a combination several weeks ago, a time when the target was trading near its cheapest price in more than a year. The forces that drove them together will likely spur on other dealmaking as well...."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-16/big-oil-deals-return-as-halliburton-moves-first-real-m-a.html

What Does $75 Oil Mean to the Solar Industry? Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- SolarCity Co-Founder and CEO Lyndon Rive discusses the impact of lower oil prices on the solar energy industry. He speaks with Erik Schatzer from the Bloomberg The Year Ahead: 2015 summit in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/what-does-75-oil-mean-to-the-solar-industry-T_WMcdlqQfqstlLd2E6oxw.html

13 November 2014: Brent recently dips below $80


Brent Falls Below $80 For First Time in 4 Years on Glut By Mark Shenk  Nov 13, 2014 3:38 AM GMT+0800; "Brent crude, used to price more than half the world’s oil, fell below $80 a barrel for the first time in four years amid speculation OPEC will refrain from removing a surplus triggered by booming U.S. shale output... Futures dropped as much as 2.2 percent. Brent last traded below $80 on Sept. 29, 2010. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t cut its collective output when it meets in Vienna this month, according to Kuwait Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair... Oil plunged into a bear market last month, the result of a surge in shale drilling that has lifted U.S. production to a three-decade high as well as slowing growth in global demand. OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have resisted calls to cut output while Libya, Venezuela and Ecuador have asked for action to prevent even lower prices...."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-12/brent-falls-below-80-for-first-time-in-4-years-on-glut.html



4 November 2014: US oil production eyes $70 oil?


How Low Can They Go?  Further declines in oil prices in the U.S. seem to be in the cards. Our story looks at the move by Saudi Arabia to unexpectedly cut prices for crude sold to the U.S., adding to pressure on American energy producers. We note that the decision increases concerns about the resilience of the U.S. oil industry, which has expanded rapidly in recent years. Some traders interpreted the Saudi action as taking aim at U.S. shale-oil production rather than being driven by supply and demand. However, an industry official said that it wasn’t a decision to undercut shale production, but rather an incentive for refiners in the U.S. to get higher margins by buying more Saudi crude. Nonetheless, most analysts expect U.S. oil production to keep increasing unless prices fall below about $70 a barrel. http://tk.wsjemail.com/track?type=click&enid=ZWFzPTEmbXNpZD0xJmF1aWQ9Jm1haWxpbmdpZD01NTM5MDMyJm1lc3NhZ2VpZD04Njg5MDAmZGF0YWJhc2VpZD02ODIwMDAmc2VyaWFsPTE2OTU3NDY4JmVtYWlsaWQ9eXVsZW5na0BnbWFpbC5jb20mdXNlcmlkPXl1bGVuZ2tAZ21haWwuY29tJnRhcmdldGlkPSZmbD0mZXh0cmE9TXVsdGl2YXJpYXRlSWQ9JiYm&&&1452400153652&&&http://online.wsj.com/articles/saudi-oil-price-cut-upends-market-1415063053?mod=djem10point



31 October 2014: OPEC members raising output, shale and changes in oil trade routes


Khor Reports comment: There's a lot of discussion in the agro-commodity space about oil prices as prices of commodities, especially palm oil have become quite linked to oil price as agricultural crops are key feedstocks in biofuels. 16% of palm oil is used in biodiesel now. So, putting back on a rather dusty equity analyst hat, we pulled together a share price chart comparison for Exxon, Petrobras, SembCorp Marine [1] (among other things selling oil rigs to Petrobras and others), and Sapura Kencana (key Malaysia oil & gas sector services provider) below. The correction in Petrobras share price is particularly big and SembCorp Marine (alongside Keppel Corp) was among significant providers of oil rigs for offshore oil & gas, and also corrected. Exxon has done better, but another oil & gas services company in Malaysia (with Petronas pushing for domestic oil & gas reserves increases via development of marginal fields) had huge share price gain and a recent correction. Oil & gas services and equipment companies are considered a leveraged play on oil & gas prices.



source: Bloomberg.com
[1] Singapore government-linked corporation with key utilities and marine services businesses.
In the latter: "Offers a full spectrum of integrated solutions from ship repair, ship conversion, rig building and repair to offshore engineering and construction" with FY2013 Group net profit mix (excluding Corporate) of 39% or S$337m.

OPEC Boosts Oil Output as Prices Slide to Four-Year Low 31 Oct 2014; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-30/opec-boosts-oil-output-as-prices-slide-to-four-year-low.html; "Brent crude for December settlement slipped 88 cents, or 1 percent, to $86.24 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe... OPEC nations lifted output as Brent crude ... survey of oil ...Production by the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed by 53,000 barrels a day to 30.974 million, led by gains in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. Last month’s total was revised 14,000 barrels a day lower to 30.921 million because of changes to the Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Nigerian and Qatari estimates.

OPEC nations lifted output as Brent crude dropped to a four-year low amid ample global supplies and sluggish demand. The group’s biggest producers, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, have cut their official selling prices, sparking speculation they will compete for market share rather than trim output. Ministers will gather next month to discuss the group’s production target...."

Shale Boom Redraws Oil Routes as Alaskans Ship to Korea  31 Oct 2014; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-30/shale-boom-redraws-oil-routes-as-alaskans-ship-to-korea.html; "The U.S. Commerce Department in June opened the door to more U.S. oil ... U.S. West refineries, traditional buyers of Alaskan oil ... of benchmark crudes ... The bank cut forecasts for Brent ... State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil ..."


Why Oil Prices Went Down So Far So Fast 30 Oct 2014; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-29/why-oil-prices-went-down-so-far-so-fast.html; "Break-Even Points for U.S. Shale Oil Brent crude ... Brent crude ... The Paris-based International Energy Agency predicted world oil ... On Oct. 1, Saudi Arabia lowered prices on its crude ... The plunge does not accurately reflect the balance between oil ...The reasons oil prices started sliding in June were hiding in plain sight: growth in U.S. production, sputtering demand from Europe and China, Mideast violence that threatened to disrupt supplies and never did.... After three-and-a-half months of slow decline, the tipping point for a steeper drop came on Oct. 1, said Ray Carbone, president of broker Paramount Options Inc. That’s when Saudi Arabia cut prices for its biggest customers. The move signaled that the world’s largest exporter would rather defend its market share than prop up prices...."


More here: http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/



15 October 2014: It's fallen from $105-110 range to $85 now


U.S. Oil Producers May Drill Themselves Into Oblivion  By Matthew Philips, October 13, 2014; "Remember the fall of 2008? As the world spun out of control and the price of everything crashed, a barrel of oil lost 70 percent of its value over about five months. Of course, prices never should’ve been as high as $146 that summer, but they shouldn’t have crashed to $40 by the end of that year either.... As the oil market has recovered, there have since been three major corrections, when prices have fallen at least 15 percent over a few months. We’re now in the midst of a fourth, with oil prices down more than 20 percent since peaking in late June at around $115 a barrel. They’re now hovering in the mid-$80 range and could certainly go lower. That’s good news for U.S. consumers, who are finally starting to reap the rewards of the shale boom through low gasoline prices. But it could spell serious trouble for a lot of oil producers, many of whom are laden with debt and exaggerating their oil reserves.... In a way, oil companies in the U.S. are perpetuating the crash by continuing to drill and push up U.S. oil production to its fastest pace ever. Rather than pulling back in hopes of slowing the amount of supply on the market to try and boost prices, drillers are instead operating at full tilt and pumping oil as fast as they can. Just look at the number of horizontal rigs in the field...One final note of caution: The U.S. natural gas industry ran through this same cycle a few years ago with companies getting themselves into trouble by flooding the market with gas, crashing the price and themselves in the process. By mid-2012, the price of natural gas got too cheap to drill. The number of natural gas rigs in the field still isn’t anywhere close to returning to where it was a few years ago...." http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-13/u-dot-s-dot-oil-prices-are-dropping-but-drilling-is-more-expensive?campaign_id=DN101414


Oil Oversupply Highlights Discord within OPEC, Wednesday, 15 October 2014; "Oversupply, slowing demand, a strong US dollar, and OPEC discord as to what to do about these factors are culminating in sliding oil prices. Wealthy Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, will likely push to maintain current output and oil prices will continue to slide....The price of oil is at a multi-year low. A trio of factors, oversupply (Libya has restored production, and the US has cut a third of their oil imports), a strong US dollar and a slowdown in demand, particularly from South and East Asia, has seen the price of oil slump......Iraq and Iran will lead the push to reduce production and raise the oil price closer to a benchmarked $100 a barrel. After years of sanctions, Iran’s economy is fragile. The country requires US$130 (US$140 by some estimates) a barrel to profit, compared to the UAE at US$70, and Saudi Arabia at US$90, making any further reduction unacceptable. Budget balancing will also be on Iraq’s agenda. Though sometimes forgotten, a cost of over US$90 a barrel is still a high price. For Saudi Arabia this market volatility is not an immediate disaster. With huge currency reserves and little national debt, the Kingdom is well prepared for the short term, as are other rich Gulf such as the UAE. So far, Saudi Arabia seems to believe the current situation is a temporary phenomenon, and dismissed calling an emergency meeting before November... "; http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publications/indian-ocean/29-indian-ocean-swa/1988-oil-oversupply-highlights-discord-within-opec.html



October's Wild Ride Isn't Over Yet by Mohamed A. El-Erian, Oct 15, 2014 3:20 PM EDT; "For quite a while now, too many investors have been comforted by two intoxicating notions: that the global economy would continue in a low-growth equilibrium, thus avoiding both a recession and an inflationary boom, and that central banks would succeed in repressing market volatility, not just pre-emptively but also after the fact should an unanticipated event occur. Together, these perceptions encouraged large across-the-board risk-taking that, in many instances, lost sight of fundamental valuations, liquidity realities and unbalanced market positioning.... Both notions have come under pressure in the last two weeks, simultaneously and significantly. Today’s moves in asset prices would not have been so dramatic had markets not been so overly optimistic in their positioning. But they were. And the resulting price volatility was dramatic in virtually every asset class.... Given where we are coming from, this technical phase will not dissipate quickly. Though unlikely to be as dramatic as today, market volatility can be expected to continue in the days and weeks to come as two forces compete: first, the forced deleveraging of certain investors, particularly overstretched hedge funds registering big October losses; second, central banks scrambling to say all sorts of reassuring things. All of this will serve to reinforce October’s longstanding reputation as a threatening month for investors around the world...." http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-15/october-s-wild-ride-isn-t-over-yet

Note on Bali volcano and travel (updated)

Editor's note: What I'm hearing from those with work conference in Bali this week. Those with flights cancelled are pretty glad they aren't there for the current Bali exit travel dilemma. Yesterday, 13 hour trips Bali-Surabaya reported for some, including leaving 5pm and arriving this morning. By last night, those leaving also included family members of those accompanying those on conference, and the staffers are leaving today. There are also full corporate teams told to stay put (I guess abiding by travel advisory such as below) and some have most staff stay and some leaving; these are going by how far their location at Nusa Dua is from the volcano and citing historic stats. Before dinner time yesterday, as more conference-goers talked about decision for full teams to pull out, the pace of similar decisions likely picked up. Highly anecdotal - more of those on my Whatsapp chats seem to be planning exit, and fewer adamant on staying due to their safe distance from the volcano. Also, insurance may not cover. Report is that 300  participants remain at RSPO RT15. Versus 800 participants at RSPO RT14 last year (AOMG report, http://aomg.org.my/index.php/2014-03-22-08-56-36/news-updates/76-rt14-2016-bangkok-8-10-november-2016). 
(Updated 11am for travel news and MAGMA Indonesia links, 2pm for NASA posting and suggestion from someone at RSPO RT15 how to GET IN)

About exit travel, Bali to Surabaya, http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/desperate-tourists-pile-on-buses-ferries-to-escape-bali/news-story/eb1e5b1c2af4849fc99cf093497b90c2

About inbound travel, to Bali: [13:55, 11/29/2017] From someone at RSPO RT15: A more efficient travel option has been used by 2 delegates that came in after Bali airport closure. JKT to Banyuwangi, ferry and then road. Shorter by 7hrs vs Surabaya. (This can be useful for outbound; but one reader says flights may be full)

MAGMA Indonesia, official public service info channel
https://twitter.com/id_magma?
https://twitter.com/id_magma?lang=en

Magma Indonesia, https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/ and live seismogram of Mt Agung, https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/live/seismogram/ and Earth Observatory Singapore, http://www.earthobservatory.sg/news

NASA comment: Also notice that by November 28, the SO2 plume directly over the volcano appears to have decreased. “It is definitely normal that it should fluctuate a bit,” said Janine Krippner, a volcanologist at the University of Pittsburgh. “But the volcano is definitely not winding down at this point.” She also notes that the concern now is that there is a clear pathway through which lava can travel to the surface. An “open system” like this one led to deadly lava flows during the volcano’s last major eruption in 1963... According to a report by the Jarkata Globe, about 100,000 people live on the volcano’s slopes but less than half have evacuated. The eruption has also led to airport closures and the cancelation of hundreds of flights. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=91329&src=twitter-nh

"A number of Australian insurers have issued statements telling customers they would only be covered if they bought policies up to nine weeks ago — before the Indonesian government issued an alert on the volcano. Some have stipulated a cut-off coverage date of September 22, which was when the Indonesian volcano alert was first raised to level four, suggesting an eruption was imminent." https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/bali-volcano-australian-students-abandoned-by-insurance-companies/news-story/1f3547eda556ae6d010fa034296b10ac

INTERNATIONAL SOS AND CONTROL RISKS BALI TRAVEL ALERT 27 NOVEMBER 2017 ,  — Bali; Those currently in Bali or Lombok do not need to leave. However, abide by all directives issued by the authorities, including staying out of the designated exclusion zone and deferring travel to the volcano.
https://www.internationalsos.com/newsroom/news-releases/international-sos-and-control-risks-bali-travel-alert-nov-27-2017


#MountAgung #Bali #RSPO #RT15