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At Roundtable (RT) 2022 - Day 1 Observations
At Roundtable (RT) 2022 - Day 1 Observations
Segi Enam Research
PalmTrack—Sep 2022 Wrap Up
PalmTrack—Sep 2022 Wrap Up

Malaysia, Singapore, and the Chicken Problem - Part #2

Following the previous post on Malaysia, Singapore, and the Chicken Problem - Part #1 late last week, here are our thoughts and observations on the matter.

Observations. The aspect I know a bit more about is for Malaysia, it seems clear that producing chickens for the domestic market at the target price is/was loss making per bird. The government was looking at suggestions on palm-based chicken feed to help lower cost but that is unlikely as palm kernel expeller/cake/meal, while well established, is primarily used as feed for ruminants, mostly dairy cows. While the industry hope and experiments for wider use for chickens, that is still a work in progress.

(Inside story: policy analysts were a bit surprised that some plantations made this suggestions when, with basic research, it becomes obvious that palm material not an immediate solution).

Instead, the Malaysians went with a cash handout to B40s and buffer stock policy for now, as the mechanism to help poultry breeders seems uncertain no subsidy support plan has been announced. Governments are likely to be struggling with industries to supply export products to domestic consumers as the high international prices attract big volumes out. Export restrictions can tighten global/regional supply even more and distort export prices upward even more.

Another example is the cooking oil conundrum in Indonesia that has pitted their President against an alleged 'cooking oil mafia.' There is worry about a 'chicken cabal' in Malaysia. While politicians and policy makers figure out chicken suppliers, and with more money in the pocket, B40 consumers may have to find other proteins for their rice.

Further observations. Malaysia observers have noted that even the likes of KFC are resorting to selling more patties as fresh chicken is in acute shortage locally. They are not sure whether this issue can be easily resolved, as the government is still maintaining the price ceiling.

In the meantime, consumers in Singapore are not noticing chicken shortages. A banker friend told me: "We can get chicken everywhere, I just had a curry chicken toastie for lunch." Economists there are not worried about supplies at present, as Singapore can pay for chilled and frozen chickens from other nearby countries such as Thailand and further from Australia.

Land Reclamation Projects and Sand Dredging/Mining Sites in Peninsular Malaysia ver. Oct 2019

A few years ago, Khor Reports conducted a brief study on land reclamation in Peninsular Malaysia. We attempted to locate selected land reclamation projects and sand dredging/mining sites based on news reports and other publicly-available sources online before overlaying these locations with a map highlighting land areas at risk of coastal flooding.

We have also made brief case studies comparing the best and worst case scenarios for key areas where the land is at risk of coastal flooding by 2050.

Malaysia, Singapore, and the Chicken Problem - Part #1

In a move that sent exporters and vendors into a ruffle, Malaysia announced on 23 May that all exports of various chicken products, including live poultry and whole carcasses, are prohibited effective 1 June. The ban is part of the country’s efforts to address the domestic supply shortages and rising prices of poultry.

Food security concerns have been in the forefront of the minds of various nations within Southeast Asia following the Russia-Ukraine war. According to the United Nations, “global food prices have risen by nearly one-third, fertilizer by more than half, and oil prices by almost two-thirds” in the past year.

China Daily published an interesting article on the matter, in which Segi Enam Advisors were quoted:

“In Southeast Asia, there is an opportunity in the crisis in cooking oil,” said Khor Yu Leng, research head for Southeast Asia at Singapore-based consultancy Segi Enam Advisors.

Khor told China Daily that palm oil exports can fill the gap when other vegetable oils like rapeseed oil and sunflower oil, of which both Russia and Ukraine are key exporters, are in tight supply. 

“My check of vessel movements from Indonesia shows a big rise in palm oil tankers going to the Commonwealth of Independent States (and) Russian region,” said Khor. 

While Thailand, also a palm oil producer, pulled back on domestic use of the product in biodiesel to ensure food supplies, Malaysia and Indonesia are sticking to diverting it into domestic transport fuel with 20-30 percent biofuel blending mandates, said Khor. 

Read the full article here: Asian nations enhance food security amid Russia-Ukraine conflict

[Sample!] PalmTrack—US CBP Workshop on Forced Labour

Yesterday, the US CBP conducted a virtual workshop on forced labour facilitated by MPOC. The one hour-long workshop provided a useful guide as to how the agency generally enforces its anti-forced labour tools, as well as how it modifies and revokes imposed export bans. 

There are primarily three types of forced labour enforcement tools the US CBP exercises: Withhold Release Order (WRO), findings, and penalties. Note the difference in standard of proof for each tool—“reasonable suspicion” has a much lower bar than “probably cause”, the latter requiring that the US CBP “conclusively demonstrate that the merchandise is prohibited” due to elements of forced labour along the relevant supply chain.

As of 8 June 2022, the US CBP reports on its website that Malaysia has six WROs and one finding.

According to the US CBP, its forced labour enforcement process comprises a nine-step process, initiated whenever it receives a tip, whether from “internal channels” or received from external sources, e.g. civil society, “tips from researchers”, about exported merchandise produced using forced labour. 

Companies slapped with WROs and/or findings are allowed to submit requests for modifications to and/or revocations of their export bans. The US CBP uses on ILO indicators as a guide when considering these requests. 

In response to a question posed about how companies could provide evidence that its goods were not produced using forced labour, it was emphasised that companies are strongly encouraged to hire a reliable, independent auditor as an assessor, although the US CBP quickly clarified that it does not and will not dictate any specific requirements of said auditor. Interestingly, one of the speakers had expressed bewilderment that one Malaysian company had opted to use its “internal auditors” to challenge its export ban and hoped that the US CBP’s later rejection of the aforementioned company’s report assessment assessment emphasises its insistence for an independent audit.

research@segi-enam.com | 9 Jun 2022

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Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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BFM: Can We Afford GE15 Right Now

There have been increasing chatter about GE15 in Malaysia. Many within UMNO are reportedly pressuring Prime Minister Ismail Sabri to call for a general election, with one source interviewed by the Malay Mail claiming that “the consensus of the top leadership of the party is that GE15 should be held sooner rather than next year.” Consequently, experts have began weighing the pros and cons of holding an election this year, especially given the last two years of regular pandemic-related lockdowns in Malaysia. Segi Enam Advisors Khor Yu Leng was invited to BFM to give her thoughts on the matter: Can We Afford GE15 Right Now

There have been calls from within UMNO for parliament to be dissolved and GE15 to be held as soon as possible. However, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri has said that with inflation and the rising cost of goods, this isn't the right time. We look at where we are in our economic recovery and whether initiating an election could have repercussions.

Image Source: Gwoeii, Shutterstock; produced by: Natasha Fusil; presented by: Lee Chwi Lynn, Sharmilla Ganesan

PalmTrack—May 2022 Wrap Up

Here is a wrap up of the some of the issues PalmTrack covered in May 2022:

  1. We’ve been updating a lot on the changed political-policy landscape for Indonesian palm oil. Note that the Jokowi administration has been struggling to get cooking oil at the right price to Indonesia consumers for months, toggling between the export-restricting DMO-DPO rules and export duty/levies. 

  2. Experts expressed surprise at Indonesia’s intentions to reimpose a domestic sales requirement effective 31 May 2022. CIMB in its agribusiness brief dated 23 May expects the potential impact of the regulation to depend on the new volumes and price obligations set by the government, it is overall still too early to conclude how the DMO will impact the market and/or palm oil players due to the lack of details.

  3. Weather and rainfall: On notable rainfall events (30 days to 11 May 2022), 30 days accumulated rainfall was est. above 500mm in Central and East Kalimantan, where a significant area has within those regions recorded an accumulated rainfall of est. above 500mm. On 13 May, BMKG issued a warning of heavy rainfall accompanied by storms and strong winds for several Indonesian provinces, including Aceh, and West and South Sumatra.

  4. Tankers from Indonesia: Port calls for 25 Apr–8 May 2022 (14 days) count, c.50 palm-related tankers, with sample net tonnage c.295k (versus 14 days to 10 Apr, c.60 tankers with sample net tonnage c.330k). These two weeks (25 Apr–8 May), the share of port calls was higher for European ports; conversely, the share is lower for CIS and American ports (versus 14 days to 10 Apr).

  5. On 7 May, the Indonesian navy seized its third vessel, the Mathu Bhum, after seizing two others, the World Progress and Annabelle, a week earlier. A review of the Mathu Bhum’s movement shows that the vessel was doing unloading/loading operations on 7 May 2022 at Belawan’s container port.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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BFM: The S in ESG in Malaysia is Sorely Lacking

On 13 May, the Malaysian government announced that the US through its Customs Border Protection (US CBP) has agreed to set up a joint working committee to address ht issue of forced labour in Malaysia. While a welcome piece of news, questions naturally arise on whether the committee will positively affect Malaysia’s labour challenges in a meaningful way. Segi Enam Adviser principal Khor Yu Leng was invited on BFM to discuss the matter: The S in ESG in Malaysia is Sorely Lacking

Following the announcement to setup a Malaysia-US working committee on labour issues, we ask Khor Yu Leng, Political Economist, Segi Enam Advisers whether this committee will help clean up Malaysia’s questionable reputation on labour practices?

Image credit: Shutterstock.com; produced by: Moh Heng Ying; presented by: Khoo Hsu Chuang, Tan Chen Li, Philip See

Indonesia Lifts Palm Oil Export Ban

Indonesia has lifted its palm oil export ban following an announcement made by President Joko Widodo today on 19 May. Exports of CPO and other refined products, including cooking oil, may resume on 23 May this Monday.

According to the President, the decision to lift the said ban was made in consideration of the welfare of the 17 million workers in the palm oil industry in spite of the fact that cooking oil has not reached the target price of Rp14,000 per litre, although bulk cooking oil has reportedly reached more than national needs. In the meantime, the government will continue monitoring the supply and price of cooking oil. The government had been facing mounting pressure to reopen its export routes since the implementation of the ban on 28 April.

PalmTrack—April 2022 Wrap Up

Here is a wrap up of the some of the issues PalmTrack covered in April 2022:

  1. Indonesia’s palm oil export ban: Indonesia has recently banned the export of palm oil. The ban encompasses several products—CPO, PAO, POME, RBDPL, RBDPL, RBDPO, and UCO—coming to a total of 12 HS codes. We turned to several sources following news of three executives of key palm companies and a senior bureaucrat charged in connection to the country’s cooking oil crisis that occurred just ahead of the ban, with one stating that “[t]he image of the industry is bad. If it is true, it has to be proved in court, but it is as if the whole industry is guilty.”

  2. Palm’s Animal Feed Hopes: Biomass from oil palm trees have important uses, but current uses are not always considered optimal by the palm industry. Key applications include empty fruit bunch (EFB) and fronds as mulch in plantations, liquid waste for biogas, PKM as mixture for fodder (for ruminants - cows) and other wastes for fertilizers. PalmTrack has published two posts on this—one on feed for dairy cattle, and the other on chicken feed.

  3. Weather and rainfall: On notable rainfall events (30 days to 11 Apr 2022), 30 days accumulated rainfall was est. above 300mm all across most of Borneo, South & Southeast Sulawesi, and smaller areas of central Peninsular Malaysia. The Australian BOM issued a weather project on 12 Apr 2022, with predictions that La Niña is expected to eventually return to neutral in the southern hemisphere in autumn or early winter.

  4. Tankers from Indonesia: Port calls for 28 Mar–13 Apr 2022 (14 days) count, c.60 palm-related tankers, with sample net tonnage c.330k (versus nearly two months ago, 14 days to 13 Mar, c.60 tankers with sample net tonnage c.297k). These two weeks (28 Mar–13 Apr), the share of port calls was higher for ASEAN (other than Malaysia and Singapore), CIS, and South Asian ports (versus 14 days to 13 Mar).

  5. Prices, projections, and policy jitters: Many in the palm oil world are familiar with the three Gurus of palm oil outlook: Fry (my ex-boss), Mielke, and Dorab. We covered their views (and that of others) from the big KL Price Outlook Conference (POC) 2022 powwow.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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PalmTrack—March 2022 Wrap Up

Here are the snippets of some of the news PalmTrack covered in March 2022:

  1. Cooking oil angst and Indonesia export policy flip-flop: Indonesia export rules have flip-flopped, with a new export restriction recently abandoned in favour for a higher export levy. Looking more recently (c. 15 March), cooking oil prices in Indonesia have not fallen and some shops have taken to limit purchases were to two litres per person to address supply concerns, with long queues for cooking oil across the country as stocks rapidly diminish. Over in Malaysia, there also some problems, with rationing of subsidised cooking oil and some empty shelves for these plastic-bagged cooking oil

  2. Update on the Sime Darby Plantations (SDP)-USCBP conundrum: CGS-CIMB reports that SDP is optimistic about the improvements the company has made with regard to its labour practices throughout its supply chain in Malaysia and is planning to submit an independent assessment report on these improvements to the US CBP by Mar 2022.

  3. Tankers from Indonesia: Port calls for 28 Feb–13 Mar 2022 (14 days) count, c.60 palm-related tankers, with sample net tonnage c.297k (versus nearly two months ago, 14 days to 23 Jan, c.60 tankers with sample net tonnage c.360k). These two weeks (28 Feb–13 Mar), the share of port calls was higher for CIS, European, and South Asian ports (versus 14 days to 9 Jan).

  4. Weather and rainfall: Australia’s BOM headlines “La Niña retreat stalls as trade winds strengthen” on 15 Mar 2022, but details that the event has passed its peak. On notable rainfall events (30 days to 13 Mar 2022), 30 days accumulated rainfall was est. above 300mm all across central and east Peninsular Malaysia, across the northern and eastern areas of Sumatra, Sarawak, north-east Sabah, and some eastern parts of Kalimantan.

  5. Iceland has announced a reversal of the supermarket chain’s removal of palm oil product (since 2018) amidst a shortage of sunflower oil. Citing it as an “unintended consequence of the [Russia-Ukraine] war,” CEO Richard Walker states that the move is only “a last resort and as a strictly temporary measure.” The U-turn comes amidst calls for urgent action in anticipation of rising food prices and shortages.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

$380.00
Every year
$38.00
Every month