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At Roundtable (RT) 2022 - Day 1 Observations
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PalmTrack—Sep 2022 Wrap Up
PalmTrack—Sep 2022 Wrap Up

Tankers

PalmTrack—May 2022 Wrap Up

Here is a wrap up of the some of the issues PalmTrack covered in May 2022:

  1. We’ve been updating a lot on the changed political-policy landscape for Indonesian palm oil. Note that the Jokowi administration has been struggling to get cooking oil at the right price to Indonesia consumers for months, toggling between the export-restricting DMO-DPO rules and export duty/levies. 

  2. Experts expressed surprise at Indonesia’s intentions to reimpose a domestic sales requirement effective 31 May 2022. CIMB in its agribusiness brief dated 23 May expects the potential impact of the regulation to depend on the new volumes and price obligations set by the government, it is overall still too early to conclude how the DMO will impact the market and/or palm oil players due to the lack of details.

  3. Weather and rainfall: On notable rainfall events (30 days to 11 May 2022), 30 days accumulated rainfall was est. above 500mm in Central and East Kalimantan, where a significant area has within those regions recorded an accumulated rainfall of est. above 500mm. On 13 May, BMKG issued a warning of heavy rainfall accompanied by storms and strong winds for several Indonesian provinces, including Aceh, and West and South Sumatra.

  4. Tankers from Indonesia: Port calls for 25 Apr–8 May 2022 (14 days) count, c.50 palm-related tankers, with sample net tonnage c.295k (versus 14 days to 10 Apr, c.60 tankers with sample net tonnage c.330k). These two weeks (25 Apr–8 May), the share of port calls was higher for European ports; conversely, the share is lower for CIS and American ports (versus 14 days to 10 Apr).

  5. On 7 May, the Indonesian navy seized its third vessel, the Mathu Bhum, after seizing two others, the World Progress and Annabelle, a week earlier. A review of the Mathu Bhum’s movement shows that the vessel was doing unloading/loading operations on 7 May 2022 at Belawan’s container port.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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PalmTrack—April 2022 Wrap Up

Here is a wrap up of the some of the issues PalmTrack covered in April 2022:

  1. Indonesia’s palm oil export ban: Indonesia has recently banned the export of palm oil. The ban encompasses several products—CPO, PAO, POME, RBDPL, RBDPL, RBDPO, and UCO—coming to a total of 12 HS codes. We turned to several sources following news of three executives of key palm companies and a senior bureaucrat charged in connection to the country’s cooking oil crisis that occurred just ahead of the ban, with one stating that “[t]he image of the industry is bad. If it is true, it has to be proved in court, but it is as if the whole industry is guilty.”

  2. Palm’s Animal Feed Hopes: Biomass from oil palm trees have important uses, but current uses are not always considered optimal by the palm industry. Key applications include empty fruit bunch (EFB) and fronds as mulch in plantations, liquid waste for biogas, PKM as mixture for fodder (for ruminants - cows) and other wastes for fertilizers. PalmTrack has published two posts on this—one on feed for dairy cattle, and the other on chicken feed.

  3. Weather and rainfall: On notable rainfall events (30 days to 11 Apr 2022), 30 days accumulated rainfall was est. above 300mm all across most of Borneo, South & Southeast Sulawesi, and smaller areas of central Peninsular Malaysia. The Australian BOM issued a weather project on 12 Apr 2022, with predictions that La Niña is expected to eventually return to neutral in the southern hemisphere in autumn or early winter.

  4. Tankers from Indonesia: Port calls for 28 Mar–13 Apr 2022 (14 days) count, c.60 palm-related tankers, with sample net tonnage c.330k (versus nearly two months ago, 14 days to 13 Mar, c.60 tankers with sample net tonnage c.297k). These two weeks (28 Mar–13 Apr), the share of port calls was higher for ASEAN (other than Malaysia and Singapore), CIS, and South Asian ports (versus 14 days to 13 Mar).

  5. Prices, projections, and policy jitters: Many in the palm oil world are familiar with the three Gurus of palm oil outlook: Fry (my ex-boss), Mielke, and Dorab. We covered their views (and that of others) from the big KL Price Outlook Conference (POC) 2022 powwow.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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PalmTrack—March 2022 Wrap Up

Here are the snippets of some of the news PalmTrack covered in March 2022:

  1. Cooking oil angst and Indonesia export policy flip-flop: Indonesia export rules have flip-flopped, with a new export restriction recently abandoned in favour for a higher export levy. Looking more recently (c. 15 March), cooking oil prices in Indonesia have not fallen and some shops have taken to limit purchases were to two litres per person to address supply concerns, with long queues for cooking oil across the country as stocks rapidly diminish. Over in Malaysia, there also some problems, with rationing of subsidised cooking oil and some empty shelves for these plastic-bagged cooking oil

  2. Update on the Sime Darby Plantations (SDP)-USCBP conundrum: CGS-CIMB reports that SDP is optimistic about the improvements the company has made with regard to its labour practices throughout its supply chain in Malaysia and is planning to submit an independent assessment report on these improvements to the US CBP by Mar 2022.

  3. Tankers from Indonesia: Port calls for 28 Feb–13 Mar 2022 (14 days) count, c.60 palm-related tankers, with sample net tonnage c.297k (versus nearly two months ago, 14 days to 23 Jan, c.60 tankers with sample net tonnage c.360k). These two weeks (28 Feb–13 Mar), the share of port calls was higher for CIS, European, and South Asian ports (versus 14 days to 9 Jan).

  4. Weather and rainfall: Australia’s BOM headlines “La Niña retreat stalls as trade winds strengthen” on 15 Mar 2022, but details that the event has passed its peak. On notable rainfall events (30 days to 13 Mar 2022), 30 days accumulated rainfall was est. above 300mm all across central and east Peninsular Malaysia, across the northern and eastern areas of Sumatra, Sarawak, north-east Sabah, and some eastern parts of Kalimantan.

  5. Iceland has announced a reversal of the supermarket chain’s removal of palm oil product (since 2018) amidst a shortage of sunflower oil. Citing it as an “unintended consequence of the [Russia-Ukraine] war,” CEO Richard Walker states that the move is only “a last resort and as a strictly temporary measure.” The U-turn comes amidst calls for urgent action in anticipation of rising food prices and shortages.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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PalmTrack—Mid-Feb Update for the Week

In the last two weeks on PalmTrack, we covered:

  1. Indonesia’s expanded palm oil export permit: The world’s major palm oil exporter has extended its export permit requirement for palm oil product to include other derivatives. Previously only applicable to crude palm oil (CPO), olein, and used cooking oil, the change now means that CPO and its derivatives, crude palm oil and its derivatives, as well as palm kernel expellers will be subjected to the permit.

  2. USCBP findings on Sime Darby: The US CBP on 28 Jan reported that it has “found evidence of all 11 of the International Labour Organization’s forced labor indicators on the Da Wang vessel and Sime Darby Plantation’s palm oil plantations.” PalmTrack has have been closely updating on certified palm oil and find that key market players concur on these problems on supply in key products.

  3. Tankers from Indonesia: Port calls for 24 Jan–6 Feb 2022 (14 days) count, c.80 palm-related tankers, with sample net tonnage c.450k (versus 14D to 23 Jan, c.60 tankers with sample net tonnage c.360k). These two weeks (24 Jan–6 Feb) the share of calls was slightly higher for North Asian, European, and South Asian ports.

  4. Rainfall: 30 days rainfall was est. 100–150mm across central Peninsular Malaysia, and over 200mm above normal up in central area of Sumatra. Typical 30-days rainfall in Jan–Feb is 100–200mm on Sabah, Sarawak, south Sumatra, and across Kalimantan.

  5. Palm Biofuel - Part #2: Resuming our three-part series on palm biofuels, where in Part 1 we explored the USD billions involved and who is more or less committed to spending and paying, we have now turned to the shift to HVO-SAF, waste feedstock and about certification premia for Part 2.

  6. Whither PKE? PalmTrack’s analysis of palm kernel expeller (PKE) market shifts, which point to some struggle for this product.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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PalmTrack—Update for the Week

This week in PalmTrack, we covered:

  1. Neste's renewable ops & news: Neste Oyj of Finland has been a big mover in renewable transport fuels and has been the group to watch for quite some years now. It is worth looking at Neste’s most recent financial reporting for how its sourcing platform, expansions, and maintenance are evolving, as well as its slew of news headlines.

  2. Tankers from Lubuk Gaung Port: PalmTrack’s sample reports over 200k net tonnage of tanker arrivals from Lubuk Gaung origin, in the four weeks leading up to 23 Jan 2022. This zone is a prominent with big refineries, oleochemical facilities, and also includes waste oil processing. Key exporters include RGE-Apical-AAA, GAR-Sinarmas, Musim Mas, and others. Port-at-calls regions are notably Europe and Malaysia-Singapore.

  3. Tankers from Indonesia: Port calls for 10–23 Jan 2022 (14 days) count, c. 60 palm-related tankers, with sample net tonnage c. 360k (versus 14D to 9 Jan, c.70 tankers with sample net tonnage c.430k). These two weeks (10–23 Jan), the share of calls was higher for ASEAN (Malaysia, Singapore) and Americas ports. In the news, Indonesia requirement for export permits for palm oil. Indonesian used cooking oil (UCO) exporters are also concerned about new export restrictions that came into force on 24 Jan.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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PalmTrack Resumes!

PalmTrack resumes after a two-week break, bringing you more news and analysis on the palm products trade.

The last three months of 2021 saw some significant updates in the area including: (1) expectations of further port delays and congestions at major Chinese ports amid AIS data block and tighter pandemic-related regulations; and (2) our watchlist of nearly 50 palm-related vessels; and (3) vessel movements of selected trade origins and/or destinations, including tanker presence at the Dumai area, Indonesia-India tanker voyages, and tankers travelling from Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Thailand.

This year, we start off with a three-part series on the analysis of the issues and opportunities in palm biofuels. We have just published Part 1, which looks at the USD billions involved and who is more or less committed to spending and paying for it. We have also looked at the impact of the flash floods on palm oil supply in Indonesia and Malaysia. Subscribe to PalmTrack to read these posts!

Written by KHOR Yu Leng and Nadirah SHARIF of Khor Reports/Segi Enam Advisors, PalmTrack is a free, members-only space offering exclusive updates focusing on the palm products trade and presenting info-data driven insights with reference to granular trade statistics, near-time shipment/cargo information, and human-source market intelligence. Our coverage centres around Indonesia’s ports. Click the link below to subscribe!

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[Sample!] PalmTrack—Global Map of Key Palm Oil Company Vessels

PalmTrack continues with its exclusive update on palm tanker movements. Here’s a sample article of what we’ve been up to recently:

The above near real-time map shows estimates of tankers associated with major palm oil groups for 14 Dec 2021. Most appear to operate more frequently within the Southeast Asian region, with several deployed to key destinations including India, China, and Sri Lanka. We have a tanker watchlist of nearly 50 vessels of over 3 million net tonnage; many of these vessels appear in the map above, including the GS Future, Venus, and Melati Dua.

research@segi-enam.com | 14 Dec 2021

For online view only. Please to do not redistribute without our express permission. We offer subscription services for those who wish to do so.

Corporate Subscription (upcoming) offers more granular info-data details on product, trade and vessels mentioned in our reports.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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PalmTrack—A December 2021 Recap

As PalmTrack enters well into its second month, we continue to offer readers exclusive updates on the palm products trade. Here are a few snippets of the news we covered this past month:

We have a tanker watchlist of nearly 50 vessels with over 30 million net tonnes associated with key palm oil companies. Subscribe to PalmTrack and head on over to our post to see a near real-time map showing the estimated positions of some of these tankers.

As 2021 draws to a close, there are several recent key news and chatter surrounding the palm oil trade. Read our post for some of our market observations about food safety, sustainability, and Thailand from our interviews with experts.

Following reports on Indian refiners reducing their palm oil purchases and making the switch to sunflower and soybean oils, we have collected data on palm-related tankers sailing from Indonesia to India. Read our post for an analysis of this sample of data.

Other news:

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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[Sample!] PalmTrack—Indonesia-India Vessel Movement

To give a feel of what has been going on on PalmTrack, here’s a sample article on Indonesia-India vessel movements:

Indian refiners are reportedly lowering their palm oil purchases, reducing their Nov 2021–Jan 2022 shipments, and making a switch towards sunflower and soybean oil imports instead. The steep rally in palm oil price has reduced its discount, giving way to rival oils.

India imports 13-15 million tonnes of palm oil a year, i.e. over 1 million tonnes a month. We had a preliminary look at tanker movements from Indonesia to India based on ship published origins and destinations (which is usually incomplete because not all vessels make full reports). This sample of tankers, covering an estimated 10% of total India monthly imports, largely originates from Riau and South Kalimantan and goes to Gujarat and Kerala. Top destination ports were Kandla (Gujarat), Vizhinjam, Cochin (Kerala), Haldia (West Bengal), and Mangalore (Karnataka).

Based on trade intelligence, we know the sample of tankers have been associated with major palm trader-processors and cargoes (YTD 2021); see text bubbles for key names. To review actual shippers and cargo, other datasets* can be reviewed.

We have further details for both arrival and departures by port/province/region, vessel tonnage, and granular information to jetties.

*It would also be useful to review customs info-data (not included in this summary). Please reach out to us at research@segi-enam.com.

research@segi-enam.com | 3 Dec 2021

For online view only. Please to do not redistribute without our express permission. We offer subscription services for those who wish to do so.

Corporate Subscription (upcoming) offers more granular info-data details on product, trade and vessels mentioned in our reports.

Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

$380.00
Every year
$38.00
Every month