It’s time for the 2020 US elections, and social media is again playing its huge part as it did four years ago. While the PolTracker team has extracted data on Twitter mentions and sentiments on the current Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates, being halfway across the world makes analysing said data a bit more difficult. Instead, we had the team give their personal thoughts. Click here to read more.
The King and I? The 2020 Bangkok Protests
Thailand has been witnessing a series of pro-democracy demonstrations since July. These protests attracted lots of support from the young people and urban elites, but what makes these protests notable is that it tackles the issue of the monarchy head on for the first time. This is reflected in Thai social media, where a surprisingly audacious hashtag about the king had been used by over two million Twitter users.
Naturally, Khor Reports’ PolTracker team analysed how several selected hashtags are trending on Thai Twitter. Head over here to read our results of this analysis.
911, What's Your Emergency: Emergency Talk Sends Malaysia Abuzz (Again)
Emergency was the buzz word last week. Word spread that the ruling government sought emergency rule to break to spread of COVID-19 as the numbers continue to rise and to avert political instability. Last Friday, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin had an audience with the Yang Dipertuan Agung (YDPA; the King) where he requested that he declare a state of emergency.
Curious about how social media is reacting towards this new political development, Khor Reports’ PolTracker team analysed Twitter mentions of selected hashtags and key personalities. Click here to read about our results.
Prepare for Trouble, Make it Double: Anger in Malaysia after Double Standards by Government
In the past two weeks, Malaysians have taken to the social media to vent their frustrations over the handling of the surge of COVID-19. Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin who had built his legitimacy on his swift tackling of the COVID-19 earlier this year saw his popular streak came to a grinding halt. Public sentiment turned against him in what they perceived as double-standard when his cabinet members were not subjected to quarantine upon returning from campaigning from Sabah.
Khor Reports’ PolTracker team took this opportunity to analyse how selected hashtags are trending on Twitter. Head over here to read our results of this analysis.
SCMP: The Wrangling in Raub Struck a Stark Contrast to the Thai Durian Export Juggernaut
A legal battle is underway between Raub durian farmers and a state-backed conglomerate. The dispute involved allegations that the farmers were encroaching and converting state government land into illegal durian plantations, as well as accusations that the Royal Pahang Durian Resources (RPDR) was exploiting the small-scale farmers by demanding unreasonable yield targets in a deal to legalise them.
The conundrum now involves an enquiry by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), who are questioning the farmers over the aforementioned land encroachment.
A recent SCMP article by Tashny Sukumaran covered the story in more detail, in which our principal Khor Yu Leng was quoted.
The wrangling in Raub struck a stark contrast to the Thai durian export juggernaut, said economist Khor Yu Leng, noting that Thailand had recorded almost US$1 billion in sales to China from March to June.
“Trade is just getting its footing and it would be unwise for people to try and muscle in,” she said.
While Malaysia has pinned great hopes on its new channel of frozen durian exports, the word from some eyeing volume to China is for volume to be flattish against 2019. Last year, China approved Malaysian imports, although this appeared to be delayed; durian insiders said there were some wrangling on the Malaysia-side over who would be allowed to export under the then-Pakatan Harapan administration.
This came as surprise as Malaysia is coming up from almost zero-base; tackling the China market seemed to offer enough room for all enterprising exporters. More recently, wrangles have appeared in the Raub area, which also supplies the famed Musang king (mao shan wang/MSW) durian. The previously described legal saga has unlicensed farmers fearing lopsided terms with a joint venture durian concessionaire-cum-marketing wannabe. In the meantime, the Thai durian export juggernaut has powered ahead with almost USD1 billion in sales to China in March-June, a record sales volume with unit prices doubling in the last two years.
ForFreeChoice: Higher Saturates in Palm Oil-Free Foods
Last year, a consumer rights think-tank called ForFreeChoice Institute released an interesting finding: palm oil-free foods have higher saturates and are less sustainable compared to their palm oil counterparts. The Italy-based organisation compared the total and saturated fat contents per 100g of both the palm oil and palm oil-free version of the 96 products. Interestingly, the result was that most of the palm oil-free products recorded a higher average of saturated fat levels in comparison to their palm alternatives.
Average levels of saturated fats by category (Source: ForFreeChoice)
The organisation claims that this finding further substantiates its longstanding opinion that “food brands are profiting from ‘free-from’ fake news”, thus misleading consumers, with Giacomo Bandini, a senior research fellow at ForFreeChoice Institute, explaining that:
“There is not much difference in the amount of saturated fats [between palm oil and palm oil free products]… [Cheese flavoured potato crisps are] the most evident exception, but that is the only one.”
BFM: Thorny Dispute Over Unlicenced Durian Farming
Segi Enam Advisors principal Khor Yu Leng was invited on BFM to talk about unlicenced durian farming in Malaysia. This follows the slew of allegations from unlicenced Musang King farmers against the Royal Pahang Durian Resources PKPP Sdn Bhd, who claimed that they had been pressured into entering unfair contracts with the state-linked company. Click on the following link to listen to the podcast: Thorny Dispute Over Unlicenced Durian Farming.
Unlicenced Musang King farmers in Pahang are crying foul over a legalisation scheme by private state-linked company Royal Pahang Durian Produce-PKPP Sdn Bhd, which stipulates a yearly rent and a flat rate for durians. We speak with Khor Yu Leng for her insights.
Image Source: EPA-EFE; produced by: Loo Juosie; presented by: Lee Chwi Lynn
SIIA Haze Outlook 2020: Policy Directions for 2019-2020
The risk assessment on the possibility and severity of a haze this year made in the SIIA Haze Report 2020 (authored by the Singaporean Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Segi Enam Advisors) involved analysing the recent policy directions undertaken by the Indonesian government.
Naturally, much of the analysis was focused on the Peatland Restoration Agency (Badan Restorasi Gambut or BRG), the agency first set up by President Joko Widodo in 2016 with the mandate to re-wet 2.67 million hectares of peatland across seven provinces by 2020. By end-2018, BRG reported that it has restored 780,000 hectares of peatland, although observers have pointed out that the lack of transparency and independent monitoring made it difficult to verify that claim (Jong, 2020; Gewin 2020).
BRG’s ambitious goal to re-wet 2.67 million hectares of peatland required the corporation of several agencies and a funding of at least 39 trillion rupiah (USD2.73 billion) (Jong, 2018) (Photo credit: BRG)
Recent policy efforts are also aimed to halve the number of hotspots from the 2015 count by 2019, beginning with ensuring that 2.4 million hectares of peatland remain unburned and identifying up to 731 villages as fire-prone communities (Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs of Indonesia/KKBP et al., 2017). The government has taken various measures in attempt to achieve this objective, including upgrading early fire responses, increasing the enforcement of existing laws regarding forest concessions, and developing adequate infrastructure (such as water management systems) in fire-prone areas.
Read the full report for more information: SIIA Haze Report 2020
Chain Reaction Research: How does the Palm Oil Spot Market Contribute to Deforestation?
On 22 July, Chain Reaction Research (CRR) held a webinar to present their findings on a rather interesting subject matter: spot markets.
The spot market refers to one-off transactions that occur outside of long-term contracts, and are typically used by suppliers to get rid of surplus stock and buyers to plug shortfalls in capacity. This is antithesis of the usual business models of long-term contracts, and while transactions made via the spot market are estimated to be much fewer compared to the those long-term contracts, the spot market does pose some degree of risk to No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation (NDPE) compliance.
Here are a few key points and findings by CRR:
Unsurprisingly, there is little transparency by companies when it comes to disclosing information regarding spot market transactions. A good case study would be Sime Darby—between 2017 and 2020, seven non-compliant suppliers entered the company’s supply chain via spot purchases, one of which was PT Saraswati Utama, a company that was heavily linked to illegal deforestation. Sime Darby acknowledged the purchase, but maintained that since it was made on the spot market, it does not have any real link to PT Saraswati Utama.
Purchases made by companies on the spot market appears to be opportunistic in nature rather than a preferred business strategy. Genting and Sawit Sumbermas Sarana are two examples of companies that use the spot market but are currently adopting different business models. For suppliers, however, the spot market can be a viable business model, even if the purchases made are materially insignificant for the buyers. An example would be Palma Serasih, a company suspended from the NDPE market after being found to have cleared 6,500 ha of forestland in East Kalimantan between Jan 2016 and May 2020. In the first quarter of 2020, Palma Serasih’s biggest buyers were LDC and Sime Darby, with Sime Darby confirming that it made two spot purchases of insignificant material from Palma Serasih earlier in 2020.
CRR identifies spot markets as a threat to NDPE compliance due to: 1) the lack of transparency; 2) information on the supply base not being provided until after the purchase is made; 3) the nature of a one-off transaction negates the incentives for a supplier to comply with the NDPE; and 4) the limited incentives to commit to NDPE since companies can still generate enough revenue from spot market transactions alone, i.e. Palma Serasih.
BFM: 'Sawit Anugerah Tuhan': Do Palm Oil Campaigns Work
Last week, BFM invited our principal, Khor Yu Leng, to give her opinions on palm oil campaigns and their effectiveness in increasing demand for the ever-popular vegetable oil. Click on the following link to listen to the podcast: 'Sawit Anugerah Tuhan': Do Palm Oil Campaigns Work?
Campaigns with an underlying message of reform seem to have better traction, i.e. engagement factor is higher, compared to those without, which tend to be more emotive but less clear on what it represents.
The government has unveiled the new "Sawit Anugerah Tuhan" campaign to replace “Love My Palm Oil”. But are these campaigns actually effective in promoting demand for the oil? We speak to Independent Political Economist, Khor Yu Leng for her thoughts.
Produced by: Kelvin Yee
Presented by: Kelvin Yee, Hezril Asyraaf
Thanks to a listener (a palm oil industry executive) who wrote in with his feedback: “Liked your comments, always well articulated, interesting that "sustainable palm oil" enjoys higher engagement rates than "love my palm oil" campaign. My teenage kids wouldn’t buy into the love message. They are too aware of human impact on the planet. Sustainable palm oil is the better message. I agree with you on the (importance of the) promise or the journey.”