At Indonesia mining & palm oil events, and the Agri Malaysia showcase

Yu Leng attended Mining Indonesia 2024, which showcased heavy equipment, including giant tippers, and some (much smaller) electric models. 

Note: from internal analysis & presentations. For more information, please contact research@segi-enam.com.

Yu Leng also engaged in sustainable palm oil efforts in the region with recent visits in Jakarta and Sumatra. See our LinkedIn post (here) and further reflections:

At AgriMalaysia 2024. Demand for the yearly exhibition was observed by the presence of two halls as compared to one hall in previous years. Chinese suppliers were in greater attendance. Agricultural produce purchased included mushrooms and passionfruit. Discussions with Liew Yew Ann about palm oil, agronomy, mechanisation, and coconut farming prospects. The durian sector had plenty of supplies. Great effort by Yi Xuan Lai for Yara Malaysia's fertigation efforts. See our LinkedIn post (here) and further reflections:

Social media scan on palm oil @ 16 Oct 2024

Here’s a scan of some news and issues that have caught the attention of palm oil watchers, in the last three weeks! We mostly pick up on things on Twitter/X. Come here for more, https://x.com/khorreports. 

EUDR. A hot topic amongst regulators and market players, we have argued it would be a two year muddle-through. Maybe for three years, with the one year additional time? Alerts on X (1) and (2). There is positive feedback about enhanced regulations and traceability in the palm and rubber industries, including in Ivory Coast, Malaysia, and Thailand. The regulatory upgrades are being underestimated, while costs may be overestimated. Aida Greenbury praises how cocoa farmers in Ghana are preparing for the EU's Deforestation-Free Due Diligence regulations.

On prices and trade. Susan Stroud is a notable expert on soy from North America. A 25-year palm oil price chart from Malaysia's BMD is mentioned, and Indian buyers are canceling palm oil shipments due to a sharp duty hike and rising Malaysian prices. Alerts on X (1), (2), (3).

Malaysia’s palm oil consumption has dropped significantly. Diesel consumption in Malaysia is down due to subsidy reforms, but oleochemical exports may gain from Indonesia's export duty adjustments.

News on Indonesia. New data shows an increase in palm oil deforestation in Indonesia in 2022, with no data yet for 2023. The government's Food Estates program faced challenges, particularly in peat areas, due to difficult terrain and market issues. Indonesia's Food Estates project raises concerns about food inflation, with climate change, a weak rupiah, and high imported food prices posing potential risks.

News from India. India's palm oil yields are around 12 tonnes/hectare, lower than major producers like Malaysia and Indonesia. India's vegetable oil imports dropped 30% in September due to lower demand and high prices, following higher imports in July-August. 

Palm oil is used in the energy sector and in renewables. Gas oil and Brent crude are key factors for palm oil market watchers. An oil asset map from @SPGCI provides detailed insights into the Middle East. Energy, beyond food and personal care, is crucial for the palm oil sector. The rapid growth of renewables is important. By 2030, solar PV and wind are expected to double their share to 30% of the global power mix, meeting around half of global electricity demand. (Palm oil biomass should count in the dark green “other renewables” segment.) But there’s always a risk of being called out on greenwashing… The UK advertising watchdog ruled Virgin Atlantic’s “100% sustainable aviation fuel” ad misleading and instructed them to clarify the environmental impact in future ads (note: SAF is a technical term and it still contains fossil fuels). 

Catch up on interviews with BFM

By Claudia Nyon, Research Associate, research@segi-enam.com 

Here’s a belated update on two BFM interviews back in August.

Yu Leng was on BFM’s Morning Run on 26 August 2024 to provide her insights on the increase of rubber prices against the impending implementation of the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Yu Leng also considered the present challenges of smallholder producers of palm oil and rubber. The full podcast may be found here. 

Key points included: 

• Malaysia’s rubber yield may sound low but specialists think that trees are overcounted. Thailand has faced challenging wet weather conditions and output is down but on the other hand Malaysia’s output is up. Malaysia’s ranking in global production is below.

• Commodities are handled by different government agencies or statutory boards in Malaysia. There is one for palm oil, rubber, pepper and so forth. (Agronomists seem to complain about these as “silos”). Another complexity in rubber is that different zones have different farmer income models, notably for profit sharing or share cropping. 

• Rubber is largely produced in the northern states, where palm oil has not taken over these dryer regions. Smallholder experts think that (the true) rubber farmers needing help are individuals in remote areas. But domestically, there has been an understandable push for group farming (with hired/migrant labour) near towns. Perhaps a majority of rubber is produced under profit sharing, and this may need more consideration in current policy. 

A few extra points that didn’t make it, owing to time constraints:

• A near geographical monopoly concept exists and persists in Malaysian regulations. The ideal is a farmer having multiple mills to sell for then will there be better prices for a standard product. But mills have a clear incentive to partner with their smallholders for product quality and international ESG standards. 

• A lot can be gained from having information on the location of ultra low-yielding oil palms (“dura contamination” in industry parlance, where yields are -56% of normal yield). The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) has invested a lot in detecting via genomic testing. Seeds can be verified for normal yield. There is a marginal cost increase for a major gain in production. One in eight oil palms in Malaysia are ultra low-yield, i.e., financially impaired. This is pretty surprising. 

• However, the industry needs to reconsider how they can expand these good practices from planting material all the way to harvesting and field logistics, and fairer prices. 

Yu Leng was also invited to give her take on Malaysia’s latest pledge to halt new palm oil plantations in forested areas on BFM’s Top 5 at 5, on 19 August 2024. Deforestation regulations such as the EUDR were raised and how its shaking up global commodity supply chains with origins competing against each other to sell high value add products, however limiting land might cause liberal state development policies to clash against federal powers over exporting and licensing via the MPOB. The full podcast may be found here. 

Editor’s Note: this clash between state and federal powers over the ban on new palm oil plantations in forested areas has recently materialised in the Kuala Nerus district, Terengganu. As reported by Malaysiakini in September (paywalled), Pure Green Development Sdn Bhd submitted an environmental impact assessment (EIA) to clear a state-owned peat swamp forest to develop a palm oil plantation. Following reports, the Department of Environment rejected Pure Green’s EIA (paywalled) and the Plantation and Commodities Minister, Johari Abdul Ghani, issued a statement (Bahasa Malaysia only) that the government’s bar against new palm oil plantations in forested areas still remains in force and referred to the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification policy.