[Sample!] PalmTrack—Indonesia-India Vessel Movement

To give a feel of what has been going on on PalmTrack, here’s a sample article on Indonesia-India vessel movements:

Indian refiners are reportedly lowering their palm oil purchases, reducing their Nov 2021–Jan 2022 shipments, and making a switch towards sunflower and soybean oil imports instead. The steep rally in palm oil price has reduced its discount, giving way to rival oils.

India imports 13-15 million tonnes of palm oil a year, i.e. over 1 million tonnes a month. We had a preliminary look at tanker movements from Indonesia to India based on ship published origins and destinations (which is usually incomplete because not all vessels make full reports). This sample of tankers, covering an estimated 10% of total India monthly imports, largely originates from Riau and South Kalimantan and goes to Gujarat and Kerala. Top destination ports were Kandla (Gujarat), Vizhinjam, Cochin (Kerala), Haldia (West Bengal), and Mangalore (Karnataka).

Based on trade intelligence, we know the sample of tankers have been associated with major palm trader-processors and cargoes (YTD 2021); see text bubbles for key names. To review actual shippers and cargo, other datasets* can be reviewed.

We have further details for both arrival and departures by port/province/region, vessel tonnage, and granular information to jetties.

*It would also be useful to review customs info-data (not included in this summary). Please reach out to us at research@segi-enam.com.

research@segi-enam.com | 3 Dec 2021

For online view only. Please to do not redistribute without our express permission. We offer subscription services for those who wish to do so.

Corporate Subscription (upcoming) offers more granular info-data details on product, trade and vessels mentioned in our reports.

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Khor Reports’ PalmTrack is an independent research service that tracks palm tanker movements and reports trade of palm products (and shipments, upon request) for selected trade routes. It features a forward-looking market topic and sharp analysis every quarter, e.g. palm biofuels issues & opportunities for Jan–Mar 2022. Subscribe now!

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IVPA: Is COVID a Bull or a Bear for Veg Oils?

On 29th May 2020, Segi Enam Advisors attended a global webinar organised by the Indian Vegetable Producers’ Association. The webinar sought to address the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the supply chain of vegetable oils around the world, as well as other relevant trade and policy issues.

There were several interesting takeaways from the session:

1. In India, the demand for palm oil from the hotel, restaurant, and catering industry (HoReCa) has collapsed due to the lock-down. The pandemic has also called India’s food security into question, with suggestions for the government to enact policies to ensure smooth movement of the vegetable oil supply chain, particularly with regard to interstate logistics.

2. Total Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil exports to China and India has fallen sharply in the first quarter of 2020, although it was pointed out that sales to China are known to have recovered by April 2020. Globally, while the output of vegetable oils was not as badly affected as initially expected, demand has dipped much more significantly due to the lock-downs enforced across the globe.

3. In Argentina, there are transportation problems within the agriculture industry. The main cause is the low water levels of the Parana River, which transports approximately 96% of agriculture products, a situation further aggravated by Covid-19 (although it should be noted that these logistical issues preceded the outbreak). Experts project an improvement by Aug-Sep 2020.

4. The bilateral agreement signed by China and the US is now uncertain, especially in light of the coronavirus outbreak and recent developments in Hong Kong. It was also suggested that globalisation will not roll back but will have fewer Chinese characteristics, as supply chains are restructured and governments consider protectionist measures.

Click here to watch the video recording of the webinar.

Bloomberg: $1.4 Billion of Palm Oil Is in the Crossfire as Mahathir Angers India

About a week ago, Khor Reports was again asked to give its comments on the hot issue of the India-Malaysia trade spat, this time to Bloomberg. Tensions had been escalating since Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s comment on Kashmir at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2019, which impacted palm trade between the two countries.

If India’s refined imports from the nation drops from about 2.6 million tons a year to reach to 2018 levels, about 2 million tons of Malaysian processed products worth RM5.71 billion may need new buyers, said Khor Yu Leng, an independent economist with Segi Enam Advisors, who has published papers on Malaysia’s political economy.

Click here to read the whole news article.

To read about the background behind the trade kerfuffle between India and Malaysia, click here.

SCMP: The India-Malaysia Palm Tiff and the Return to Agriculture

It’s been a bit of a busy month for Khor Reports. One of the several things lined up include contributing comments to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on a couple of issues that cropped up recently.

The first concerned the trade tensions between Malaysia and India, which significantly impacted palm oil trade between the two countries:

“Last year, Indians and Malaysians waged rival boycott campaigns on social media and although it is unclear how much traction these movements garnered, Khor, the economist, said it was unusual to see such discussions about the palm oil online “as it doesn't involve end consumers”. “But having tens of thousands of mentions of Malaysian palm oil online is a clear sign of issues, meaning that after that episode the level of mentions was 80 per cent higher than previously which gives us some insight into domestic angst,” Khor said.

The second was about policy suggestions for Malaysia to return to agriculture, following a RM50 billion (USD12.3 billion) food import bill in 2019.

“The good agricultural practices of Malaysian farmers should be well established, and be held in high regard, to establish a loyal domestic market,” Khor said. “Pro-farmer and food-security efforts may be needed. Imports can flood the market in an unpredictable way and that has to be considered.”

Click on the links above to read the full SCMP articles.

BFM: India Asks Refiners to Stop Buying Malaysian Palm Oil

Earlier this month, BFM invited Segi Enam Advisors principal, Khor Yu Leng, to give her views regarding India’s more recent trade move on Malaysian palm oil. Click here to listen to the podcast.

“The latest move comes after Malaysia's criticism of India's actions in the Kashmir region and its new citizenship law. We look at how this affects Malaysian palm oil producers, and what it means for our trade relationship with India.

Produced by: Loo Juosie Presented by: Lee Chwi Lynn, Aiman Rashad.”